Where FPI sees a Week 6 college football edge vs. the spread 🏈
Where FPI sees a Week 6 college football edge vs. the spread
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The betting market and our Football Power Index (FPI) often agree -- but not always. Each week, we'll highlight some of the instances in which our model significantly disagrees with the spread. We're looking at not only which side FPI feels is the right side but also why.
2019 ATS record: 11-15 (4-0 last week) 2019 closing line value: 17-7-2
Noon ET Saturday FPI prediction: Wisconsin by 31.7
The Badgers have scored only one offensive touchdown in their past six quarters. Granted, two of those quarters were when they were up big against Michigan, but the offense has fallen off a little bit. Two of their past three touchdowns have occurred on defense, and those are less predictive than actual offensive success.
Wisconsin will run straight over Kent State. We're conceding that Jonathan Taylor is going to have himself a day. But once the Badgers have a big lead, the Golden Flashes have the right offense to keep it from getting out of hand. They run a fairly efficient passing attack -- quarterback Dustin Crum has a QBR of 64.7 -- that spreads the field with four wideouts quite often. The point is: Kent State should be able to score some points late, either to keep it within the margin or pull out a backdoor cover.
What's great about this pick is that FPI is naive regarding the fact that Kenny Pickett is questionable. Pickett missed last week's game, but the majority of FPI's offensive observation is with Pickett at quarterback, so if the Panthers have to go to a backup, FPI is getting value it didn't even know it had.
Meanwhile, Duke has the quarterback advantage no matter what, because Quentin Harris ranks 10th in the country in Total QBR (81.2).
This is a close-your-eyes-and-don't-look kind of bet. But hey, they don't pay FPI the big bucks around here to tell us Georgia is better than the train wreck in Knoxville; we want to know how much better. Despite the fact that the model has downgraded Tennessee three times already this season, it still feels that Georgia isn't quite 24.5 points better on the road.
Couple of really big spreads in those games. I find them hard to judge well. Spreads are based on some calc'd value that is then adjusted by bookmakers.
It seems like, in these types of games in which the teams are clearly differential in level of play by a lot, things don't go as planned/simulated. The poor team gets down by several points (or before then) and starts do weird stuff that can effect the final score.
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Where FPI sees a Week 6 college football edge vs. the spread 🏈
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