
Originally Posted by
bettingman6
Hmm. I notice a slight problem with the calculator.
The calculator calculates the odds of a team losing by 21 by looking at all games. Including games where the spread was in the single digits, or games where the spread was over 30 points.
Really what you'd want to measure is the odds of a 20.5 point underdog losing by 21. Since the sample size of 20.5 point underdogs would be rather small, you should measure the odds by looking at games where the spread was maybe 18-23.