[DJK]

Im sorry , I thought it was u . Yes it must been on another thread.

No sweat. I hope you don't mind me tailing you for a week. I hope you have a great weekend on football as that's what I prefer the most. Thanks.

[Hot Jerry]

Ok , just watch me this week and see how I do !

Now here are my picks for NCAA FB ! This is what I will play this Saturday !!

Kentucky - [ - 5 or so ]
Virginia Tech - [ +3 or so]
Texas [ -2 or so ]
Florida [ -6 or so ]
Baylor [ + 14.5 or so ]

And here is my progressive play - GUYS DONT PLAY THIS GAME - BOISE ST !! 2 units to start with on Boise !! I have to work on Saturday so I will bet them tomorrow !

[DJK]

I was going to tail you on the Ohio ML pick only as I rather not get into BB yet as that will get me into trouble just because of the sheer number of games daily. Then, I remembered what you said on another thread and below is your exact quote.

"Learn how to handicap first ur self . Dont trust anyone with ur picks , I rather loose my money with my pics then with someone else pics."

So, I looked at both football games for tonight and I could see where Miami Ohio could win straight up as I saw them play last week against Buffalo, where Miami Ohio's QB was rather good but Buffalo's QB played even better and Miami Ohio could not defend the passes. From what I saw of Ohio, Ohio's QB isn't that good of passer but they have an excellent running game. The problem with mostly running team is that if they fall behind a lot then it's harder for them to catch up.

On the second game, my feeling is that Northern Illinois somehow doesn't blow out their opponents into double digits, so I took a 6 point two team teaser for Miami Ohio +12 and Toledo +9.5 for a very small bet. That way, I don't waste too much time glued to the TV watching the game and checking the scores all night. Doing that on Saturday's and Sunday's is more than enough for me. It's still way too early, but at the time of this post Ohio is down 7 to 28 and Toledo is up 3-0 against Northern Illinois.

Placed - TeaserRisk $ 27.00 / To Win $ 25.71 / Odds -105

• Point Spread11/7/18
  Miami Ohio +12 (-252)(103) Ohio Bobcats @ (104) Miami Ohio Red Hawks(Match) Point SpreadFootball - College Football Nov 07, 2018 07:00 PM EST
• Point Spread11/7/18
  Toledo +9.5 (-252)(105) Toledo Rockets @ (106) Northern Illinois Huskies(Match) Point SpreadFootball - College Football Nov 07, 2018 08:00 PM EST

Damn, I had to bet the NBA to get back what I lost and more because Toledo's defense is just horrible which I wish I knew but didn't and that's my bad. Wanted to hedge the original bet with the 2nd half bet on Northern Illinois seeing how they were moving the ball up and down the field against Toledo, but I fell asleep waiting for the 2nd half line and never got to put the bet in on Northern Illinois and I woke up with 1/2 of the third quarter already played and Northern Illinois scored another TD.

So, I watched the live betting line on the Lakers' game and took them at -2.5-115. When Minnesota jumped ahead by 9 points in the first quarter, the live betting odd on the Lakers dropped as low as -1.5-115 but it never flipped to Minnesota so I just took the Lakers at -2.5-115 as the line moved up quickly to -2.5. I hate betting BB because I had to sweat through the whole game until the very last second to win the bet and they were down practically the whole game and they could have easily lost the game.

The Lakers suck but Timberwolves suck even more and that's why they are 0-7 away I guess. Thank God.

Win - SingleRisk $ 100.00 / To Win $ 86.96 / Odds -115

• Point Spread11/7/18
  Los Angeles Lakers -2.5 (-115)Minnesota Timberwolves @ Los Angeles Lakers(Live Match) Point SpreadBasketball - NBA Nov 07, 2018 10:30 PM EST
  

[DJK]

Ok , just watch me this week and see how I do !

Now here are my picks for NCAA FB ! This is what I will play this Saturday !!

Kentucky - [ - 5 or so ]
Virginia Tech - [ +3 or so]
Texas [ -2 or so ]
Florida [ -6 or so ]
Baylor [ + 14.5 or so ]

And here is my progressive play - GUYS DONT PLAY THIS GAME - BOISE ST !! 2 units to start with on Boise !! I have to work on Saturday so I will bet them tomorrow !

Jerry, thank you for posting your picks and your time and effort spent on capping those games. I appreciate that very much.

I don't automatically tail someone's picks as I will cap the same games myself and see if I come up with the same conclusions. It's tough to cap the games when all I have to rely on are the past game stats and what not. In my opinion, watching the teams in recent games is the best way to know how a team is but you can only watch so much games.

Finding a good capper to follow is one option and I can only hope that I found a good one in you Jerry.

I wish you the best of luck this weekend as you do need luck to win some of these games. As a matter of fact, good luck to all bettors!

Thanks again.

[2daBank]

Jerry, thank you for posting your picks and your time and effort spent on capping those games. I appreciate that very much.

I don't automatically tail someone's picks as I will cap the same games myself and see if I come up with the same conclusions. It's tough to cap the games when all I have to rely on are the past game stats and what not. In my opinion, watching the teams in recent games is the best way to know how a team is but you can only watch so much games.

Finding a good capper to follow is one option and I can only hope that I found a good one in you Jerry.

I wish you the best of luck this weekend as you do need luck to win some of these games. As a matter of fact, good luck to all bettors!

Thanks again.

I’m kinda the opposite especially w college hoops (but can be true for all sports), the more I watch the worse I cap to a extent.

You gotta be careful not to unintentionally start developing biases which hard to do cause it human nature. Another thing about the eye test (this one prob most true about football) is it such a battle of will and determination that rarely is the team you see one week the same the next! Whether it be their level of play or that of the team they faced. Personally I like to let the numbers tell me the story but then at times I have to see some of a team to make sure those numbers painting a accurate picture.

Delicate balance to say the least!! No wonder it so tough!!! Lol. Best thing to do (or how I learned anyways) was to read a lot of smart guys who were willing to share (as many as I could!) , then as you said cap myself and try to find the things they saw.

What I think a hugely underrated part of capping is going back after the games and seeing things you capped well, things you didn’t (not so much worrying about scoreboard result, more so if you had amount of possessions correct/close, yards per play or points per shot (depending on sport obviously), 3rd down and red zone percentages or 3 point attempts shooting percentages for hoops. If you critique yourself honestly (not easy for everyone, you can tell the guys who struggle w this and will never be best they can be cause they always complaining and blaming everything and everyone other than themselves, God forbid they simply made a bad play! Lol). You will start learning what numbers worked best for you to interpret these things and learning your own tricks/things to value and how much weight to give them.

It been a long time since watching the games for the action was important to me, capping the games (and discussing them) is the part of this I enjoy and why I do it.

[DJK]

I’m kinda the opposite especially w college hoops (but can be true for all sports), the more I watch the worse I cap to a extent.

You gotta be careful not to unintentionally start developing biases which hard to do cause it human nature. Another thing about the eye test (this one prob most true about football) is it such a battle of will and determination that rarely is the team you see one week the same the next! Whether it be their level of play or that of the team they faced. Personally I like to let the numbers tell me the story but then at times I have to see some of a team to make sure those numbers painting a accurate picture.

Delicate balance to say the least!! No wonder it so tough!!! Lol. Best thing to do (or how I learned anyways) was to read a lot of smart guys who were willing to share (as many as I could!) , then as you said cap myself and try to find the things they saw.

What I think a hugely underrated part of capping is going back after the games and seeing things you capped well, things you didn’t (not so much worrying about scoreboard result, more so if you had amount of possessions correct/close, yards per play or points per shot (depending on sport obviously), 3rd down and red zone percentages or 3 point attempts shooting percentages for hoops. If you critique yourself honestly (not easy for everyone, you can tell the guys who struggle w this and will never be best they can be cause they always complaining and blaming everything and everyone other than themselves, God forbid they simply made a bad play! Lol). You will start learning what numbers worked best for you to interpret these things and learning your own tricks/things to value and how much weight to give them.

It been a long time since watching the games for the action was important to me, capping the games (and discussing them) is the part of this I enjoy and why I do it.

Wow, thanks for taking the time to make that post. Anything to help me do better in handicapping I am thankful for. I am going to have to read it over and over again to have it engraved in my memory to recall and use what you said. Thanks again.

[Hot Jerry]

Good luck to u guys today what ever u do ! I dont have a game today - I had to go to work and didn't have time to study the games . BOL to all of u !

[Hot Jerry]

Trick to this thing of ours is to pick the right teams !!

[Hot Jerry]

I squeeze day off so Im home and watching my games ! Good luck to all of us today - we all need a good day in the office !!

[DJK]

Trick to this thing of ours is to pick the right teams !!

Jerry, it looks like your picks went 2-3. You had 4 AWAY teams, so I was hesitant and did not take any except Texas, which won without too much sweating through the game. In my opinion, the cover rate is much higher for the HOME teams in college games, so I stick with mostly HOME teams when I pick for college. I had a 10 team parlay (6 moneylines and 4 normal odds) to win $3,039 for $100 and the only loss was Purdue's moneyline who laid an egg. That's what I get for picking a team with NO MOTIVATION whatsoever and AWAY. I flip that pick to Minnesota, I would have won $4,894 and I feel so stupid for not flipping it, because I thought about it but didn't follow through with it. I had Ohio State, Northwestern, Texas, and California on that parlay which all covered.

Luckily, I won both of my moneylines only parlays and another one pending tomorrow.

Win - 5 Team ParlayRisk $ 750.00 / To Win $ 843.09 / Odds +112

• Moneyline11/10/18
  West Virginia (#14) 0.0 (-500)TCU @ West Virginia (#7)(Match) MoneylineFootball - College Football Nov 10, 2018 12:00 PM EST
• Moneyline11/10/18
  Iowa State 0.0 (-650)Baylor @ Iowa State (#23)(Match) MoneylineFootball - College Football Nov 10, 2018 03:30 PM EST
• Moneyline11/10/18
  Georgia (#3) 0.0 (-650)Auburn @ Georgia (#5)(Match) MoneylineFootball - College Football Nov 10, 2018 07:00 PM EST
• Moneyline11/10/18
  Arizona State 0.0 (-550)UCLA @ Arizona State(Match) MoneylineFootball - College Football Nov 10, 2018 02:00 PM EST
• Moneyline11/10/18
  Notre Dame (#8) 0.0 (-800)Florida State @ Notre Dame (#3)(Match) MoneylineFootball - College Football Nov 10, 2018 07:30 PM EST

Win - 2 Team ParlayRisk $ 750.00 / To Win $ 247.16 / Odds -303

• Moneyline11/10/18
  Georgia (#3) 0.0 (-550)Auburn @ Georgia (#5)(Match) MoneylineFootball - College Football Nov 10, 2018 07:00 PM EST
• Moneyline11/10/18
  Notre Dame (#8) 0.0 (-800)Florida State @ Notre Dame (#3)(Match) MoneylineFootball - College Football Nov 10, 2018 07:30 PM EST

Pending.

Placed - 6 Team ParlayRisk $ 250.00 / To Win $ 706.88 / Odds +283

• Moneyline11/11/18
  Chicago Bears (-310)(265) Detroit Lions @ (266) Chicago Bears(Match) MoneylineFootball - NFL Nov 11, 2018 01:00 PM EST
• Moneyline11/11/18
  New Orleans Saints (-275)(255) New Orleans Saints @ (256) Cincinnati Bengals(Match) MoneylineFootball - NFL Nov 11, 2018 01:00 PM EST
• Moneyline11/11/18
  Philadelphia Eagles (-350)(273) Dallas Cowboys @ (274) Philadelphia Eagles(Match) MoneylineFootball - NFL Nov 11, 2018 08:20 PM EST
• Moneyline11/11/18
  Los Angeles Chargers (-550)(269) Los Angeles Chargers @ (270) Oakland Raiders(Match) MoneylineFootball - NFL Nov 11, 2018 04:05 PM EST
• Moneyline11/11/18
  Green Bay Packers (-550)(261) Miami Dolphins @ (262) Green Bay Packers(Match) MoneylineFootball - NFL Nov 11, 2018 04:25 PM EST
• Moneyline11/10/18
  Georgia (-550)(177) Auburn Tigers @ (178) Georgia Bulldogs(Match) MoneylineFootball - College Football Nov 10, 2018 07:00 PM EST

[DJK]

Jerry, have you checked "Stanford" Steve Coughlin's picks?

He is the sidekick for the ESPN's Scott Van Pelt show and he makes his picks on his podcast and not on the SVP show.

His record for college football is pretty amazing for this year as he makes 4 to 6 picks per week and he is up 24 units for the year with the win rate of 71.43% since he went 40-16. He had only ONE losing weekend where he went -1 unit for that weekend. He went 3-2 this weekend and he had the following picks.

Notre Dame -17.5 (WIN)
Texas A&M -12 (WIN)
Ohio State -3.5 (WIN)
Oregon State +23.5 (LOSS)
Cincinnati -14 (LOSS)

His and other college picks are posted at gamedaycole who tracks win rate for all college TV personnel picks.

I think only Steve's picks are good to follow as his win rate is ridiculously high.