This is a solid UNDER spot play. Miami is the worst offensive team in the league (3.32 runs per game) going up against Martinez with a 1.62 ERA this season. Urena isnt great but should be able to hold this Cards offense (4.3 runs per game) and I doubt Miami can put up 4.
Stl home games are 10-18 OU and 21-32 Overall
Buying the extra run as insurance