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Slurry I would like to hear your opinions on what you think the low of the NASDAQ will be this year and how it may look by the end of the year. As I mentioned before I got in very high beginning of February mostly Tech I've learned a lot but in a painful way in the past month should have come here 1st thanks in advance
Seems the difference between now and Sep/Oct is we have COVID under better control and yields with which to contend. The market is going to play a game of chicken with the Fed, it will be interesting to see what they say this week. I suspect they’ll continue saying limited QE via purchasing of long term bonds in hopes of controlling the short term yields, which they’ve been doing, but as you can see those short term bonds got away and yields spiked. The yields are likely to melt up higher without these sharp spikes and the market can certainly melt up with it and usually does. I’m guessing they will address the spikes again and say it’s a transient phenomenon. But if not, Then they must use unlimited QE ie buying those short term bonds as well then they’ve leveraged the entire system & essentially enter the same territory as 1980’s Japan. We know how that ended. I suspect they will do their best to control the yields through limited QE and avoid unlimited YCC at any cost...I may be wrong
Talking with ppl they are saying they already got a message their stimulus was coming middle of next week and higher than the prior two checks by 20%
So we have an opening economy, the biggest stimulus check yet and more retail participants in the market than ever...if I had to guess SPY will hit 4300 by summer.Oh, & throw in possibility of unlimited QE.Despite the fear mongering, the market will not crash near term....it was a typical correction, but given the degree of over-speculation everyone is on tilt...which tells you the system is incredibly over-leveraged.
I think our next big bout of potential massive correction won't come until Sept/Oct. The dollar will fall this week, Bitcoin and Nasdaq will make yet another lower high....from my perspective QQQ will bounce between 305-320 while money gets sorted to higher earners and more reasonable valuations, ie if you own Enphase trading at P/S 30, you want to own solar but assume less risk...what's to keep your from switching to CSIQ? If you own Cloudflare trading at forward PE of 10k(like wtf?)...what is to keep you from rotating to Dropbox instead? So this is what is happening, if you are a multi-millionaire or billionaire like myself (haha)...rotating to risk off assets allows you to maintain exposure in the market without being subject to yield fluctuations.
watch your A/D Lines and CMF's.
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Well I'm in the camp of a giant crash is coming. I think the Nasdaq may have put in the high for the year already. We'll see if it is going higher then the 14175 mark and for that to happen it will need to be soon. Stimulus checks being put to work in the market may be the reason but it has a long trip back up there from here and here is a gift as far as I'm concerned. Last week I said I was going to short when it got to the 13350 area with the convergence of the 20 DMA and the 50DMA. Well guess what that is where it is this weekend. Now a week later, I'm going to see if they force this rock up the hill a little more before I jump in and short. I really don't see any lasting upside for the NASDAQ stocks in the future and since I see a crash coming at or around the mid May time frame when this stimulus wears off and we still have high unemployment from people not getting their jobs back; I think the selloff begins with a good 50% in the SPY and maybe 60% in the DAQ to really set the panic for everyone. Then a recovery of another 50% for both markets by the end of the year. If you do the math, the bet is SPY down from Mays high by 12/31 of 25%, and 30% in the NASDAQ. I already think the NADAQ has peaked so that is around 9500 on 12/31.Originally Posted by DISTROYA
Slurry, I enjoy reading your posts and i learn a lot from you. on this one, i might be biased as i am a bona fide bull but pull up the 6 month NASDAQ chart and draw a straight line from the last low back in Oct through the recent one of 12,600. i think our next low is above 12,600 and several mos out.
maybe Snower or one of the other folks here who are handy at charts and lines and posting them here can do it, but just take a look at that technical line on the NASDAQ the last 6 mos and I trust that straight line slanted upwards. maybe i am crazy. it would not be the first time i am wrong LOL.
the reopening trade is ending very soon and TECH is going to roar again, ala 4 of the last 6 sessions.
My friend in the stock biz said quadruple witching this week (still trying to grasp these conecpts through google) and huge volatility will be happening this coming week, true?
So I put in a line from the low in the Oct time frame and ran it up to the recent low. It pretty much follows the 20 WMA. I also said last week that the 20 WMA hasn't been broken yet so the trend is your friend until you find your friend banging the trend on your own couch. I still think that is just a matter of time before it has a break down and the reason it hasn't already is how high above the 20WMA this index was in the recent past. I see interest yields on the rise and rotation out of everything tech.
With out a doubt I can be wrong as well and it happens more than I like to admit. Shyt, remember I'm the one with gold chunks stacked up past my ass just waiting for that to run for the last 6 months now. I keep buying more too every time it goes down another $100. If I was smart, I would have been in Bitcoin six months ago and maybe now starting to get out and buy gold.
I really only keep gold and gold miners on the portfolio because I do most of my work for miners and knowledge of the fact that gold will never be worth zero. Also keep in mind most of my gains during the year will be from daily scalps that I make. I'm much better at looking at the tape during the day and figuring out where to either short or go long for the day before getting out before the bell. Once I start looking out more than a month or so, things start to get more speculative so your assessment is certainly as good or better than mine.
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How we doing here guys?
I’m guessing not one of you had the ballz to drop dimes on these...these are not coin flips....these are not guessing if Clayton Kershaw’s OCD was tilted. I understand macroeconomics, TA and human psychology. If I post stuff you either listen & respect it or don’t say anything later like...I wish I would’ve blah blah blah.
now that we got that out of the way....the market is just getting started. Expect a flat to shake out next week or two before we melt everything up simultaneously...including rates...market didn’t like velocity of rate changing, that is all. The rates have been moving up since summer for gods sake. We could melt up to 2 even 3% and the market won’t care. But as soon as a measly 0.5% spike happens its hide yo kids hide yo wife. But it does go to show you where the market is fragile as well as the nervousness given the degree of speculation inflating prices. How long it can go on? Good luck guessing, cause that’s all you’ll be doing is guessing.
I spent the last few weeks concentrating into my highest convictions for a 2-5yr timeframe.
#1) Palantir: Deep learning and AI will take over the world. No other company on the face of this earth that has mastered AI/Deep learning better than Palantir. No one!
#2) Teladoc: First hand experience. Buy. Forget. Retire. Expanding into global markets and remote monitoring acquisition of Livongo. It’s a no brained. I am a doctor. I am telling you to buy this anytime it hit 100MA. That is all.
#3) Unity: this is basically software company for mobile game developers. Think Trade desk or Shopify for gaming. If this market cap isn’t 50B in 2 years my Dolphins will have also won the Super Bowl.
#3) Sea Limited: after 3x my initial investment I am still dollar cost averaging this e-commerce monster for one simple reason. Fintech. I’ve spent a lot of time studying this company and their CEO Forrest Lee is not fuking around. He is building a massive empire that is going to dominate from South east Asia to Mexico. He could end up making Bezos & Jack Ma look like a retarded cousins.
the last 2 are what I wld call speculative....meaning their revenues and performance are unproven...yet...so speculating they will make some serious damage into their respective sectors..3D printing and Genomics.
#4) Nanodimensions, not much time left now but they are going to 3D print every kind of electronic equipment we hold near and dead. Overvalued...yes...justified for what I see as a 100Billion market..hellz yes.
#5) Bionano Genomics , optical mapping cld provide a gateway to identifying diseases not previously identified easily. What makes BNGO special is the cost and usability across both bench top and clinical areas.
I didn’t mention Tesla because there are some unusual gamma activity there and I think we cld see some more bleeding from Tesla for awhile. Once Papa Elon drops that cyber truck and European hatch back on ya’ll it’s over though. I haven’t sold a single share of Tesla and bought while it was 500, just waiting on deep value which is sure to come eventually.
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Ą i know it’s a lot to processs...but 10 minutes of your life to read and understand something could be the difference that changes your life...I wish when I was a broke ass black kid growing up in 954 someone would’ve pulled me aside and said ...yo..you need to get in this...then 5-10 years later you don’t have to worry about anything..I mentor young men as senior officer and always astonished how youth are led astray despite being in the same position myself..with that I understand where you are at in life..you want more..you don’t know what it is...or where it willl come from...but I believe it is here..at this degenerate site you’ve been frequenting because you have addictions or immediate need for feedback I am telling you...right here...right now...I don’t. Give a fuk bc SBR is no better than FB or GOOG...they are just just collecting your shyt and selling it to highest bidder...you are 40 y/o or below make sure you read below and consider investing 1/2 or all of you capital the next year instead of gambling it away like SBR wants you to do
Last edited by trobin31; 03-14-21 at 09:43 PM.
100 fukkin % correct
Geez, not much going on today in the Market so far. It's like a holiday tape today. No volume, no movement.
#3) Unity: this is basically software company for mobile game developers. Think Trade desk or Shopify for gaming. If this market cap isn’t 50B in 2 years my Dolphins will have also won the Super Bowl.
u and me slurry, we can dream about dem dolphins
Remember this....Always...Whenever something is Free...YOU ARE THE PRODUCT BEING SOLD
This is also true for trading platforms, an I'm pretty sure I wont be alive when the Dolphins finally win the Super Bowl. I should have enjoyed it more back in '72 when I was 5.
At least you were alive....
Want a way to be happy when you see Treasury yields spike ....DB...its the only German I know...that and Schlobin Da Nobin...DB being accumulated....wait for it
GoPro, giraffe still has long slender legs, $20 weed bag
Thanks much for taking the time/effort to share!
Well my look for a top in the S&P with the 3rd week of February is officially done with the close above it today. Sure the 3rd week was a top, just not the top this year. Now we all watch the market melt up for a little while longer. Maybe this quadruple witch thing comes in and pounds the market down but I doubt it. Sure tomorrow is turn around Tuesday but it's not going to be a top in the S&P in my opinion even if tomorrow comes in with a 500 point loss. The Nasdaq on the other hand is right up against some resistance and if it were to continue right through the resistance this week before eating some time off the clock before moving higher, I would take that as a bearish thing which is kind of counter intuitive. Still think Nasdaq has seem the high for the year, but will just hang around and wait to see how high it can get back to before hitting the short button.
FINRA released margin debt for February today. Year over year it is up 49.264%, which is dangerously high. It will take a nasty crash by the end of the month to stop us from being up 60% YoY for March.
60% higher YoY is very rare, and has only happened 4 times since 1970. All 4 times preceded a Nasdaq bear market within months, 3 times preceded a bear market in the other major indexes and exchanges, multi year highs on the major indexes and exchanges, and 3 recessions. If this is similar, I hope it was like the 1983 - 1985 market.
Josh, In the prior times we saw 60% higher YoY, were the fundamentals/foundation as strong as they are when The Virus hit last year? the only thing that took down the market was the virus. Without it, there were most sunny skies with a few patchy clouds (interest) here and there and maybe an occasional fog bank that would have burned off pretty quickly.
They all had stronger economic growth a year earlier had lower valued stock markets from a P/E standpoint when the margin debt spiked. We are coming out of a recession like they were in 1983 when this happened, so I hope it is similar to that one where peak to trough the Nasdaq drops about 33%, but the NYSE, S&P 500, DJIA drop around 15%, and there is no recession.
Can you tell me in English what this means -- when i should close out my positions? I can't imagine anything soon, as stimulus is about to come in as well as appropriation for covid funds.
The reversal in Nasdaq and the weakness in precious metals and oil suggests the Fed will let rates rise
10-20 basis points in the near term which will put pressure on high-multiple growth stocks and bitcoin.
It means that there is a good chance the market is in the euphoria stage that comes at the end of bull markets. I don't know when it ends, as when this has happened in the past the market has risen for several months, but keep that in mind when the market pulls back, it might end up in a bear market and not make a new high for several years.
Another thing I'm looking at is junk bond ETFs like HYG and JNK. Both typically lead the broader markets, and if you plot one ETF against the S&P 500, you'll see that. HYG topped out in February, continued to drop, and is now under the S&P.
This is so tough because we don’t really have a broad macro case study.
I don’t have a degree in economics and in this rare circumstance I feel unfortunate to not be old as dirt to have experienced several significant market cycles for personal reference or comparison.
To compare this to the dot-com bubble, banking crises, post-Spanish influenza or over-leverage seems easy at first glance. But you perhaps would also have to intertwine the economics with post-war or reconstruction Fed policies that counter-balance market volatility. Then you also must factor in pervasiveness of retail money, access to information and global ownership of foreign treasuries. So, in the end, it’s literally impossible to predict any certain outcome from a situation which has never occurred.
If we were to discount all the background macro noise and just look at a technical analysis of market cycles...Tech is exhausted... All the FAANG stonks are exhausted since 6 months except Google. Tesla perhaps rang the bell at the final lap recently. But at mid -cycle we tend to see shelter being sought in consumer staples, healthcare & dividend/value like we see today.
Conversely, note the reversal in FAANG, especially AAPL AND FB which led the most recent bull market following the pandemic last spring. Throw in uncertainty of Europe and developing countries to get fully vaccinated or access to capital some of us enjoy.
So back to my initial point, we have a very poor case study to develop any specific thesis and must take into account all the factors at hand.
so what do we know? We know the economic data is improving a lot in the US and is all but certain to continue with recent stimulus but not globally. Other places are struggling badly, they don’t have stimulus, they don’t have effective vaccines.
The market is speculative and overheated in certain sectors. People want to point out Bitcoin, crypto and NFTs as the new Tulip mania or speculative bubble, but are they the same as transitioning from music Records, DVDs, CDs to digital downloads, cash and checks to credit ************ to Venmo & QR codes? Or despite this important transitional economy, just mirroring the future but still a bubble like Dotcom?
At the end of the day, I hate that term but it brings home a final point...the market has a tendency to allocate capital towards the greatest amount of Good.
what is good at this point in time? I think the answer is health & jobs. This will require a healthy population and a healthy market. Some would argue this is not a healthy market, but it is a market putting money into peoples pocket so they can spend. I believe this is the Feds focus and the focus of the largest stakeholders in the economy. I do not believe there is anything to gain from collapsing the tech sector imminently. Perhaps a slow bleed leading into the 2H of 2021 with a refocusing of allocating capital into beaten down sectors. By end of sunner, tech will have reached more reasonable valuations to the point rising rates will be already priced in.
This offers an opportunity to trade the reopening and allocate capital to tech with tremendous long term prospects. Disruptive tech with exponential growth ahead has always been and will always be the future unles we nuke ourselves into the Flintstone age.
I don’t believe Cathie Wood, Elon Musk or Alex Karp will fail. I think believe they have purpose and meaning in their lives that will lead the US & foreign investors & economy into the the next decade. We need forward thinkers like them...remember...the market puts money where it sees the greatest amount of good!!!
You may convince yourselves the Flintstone economy is viable but it’s not. So all this to say...trade the re-opening...dollar cost average into the disruption. Fear uncertainty and doubt are the only things preventing you from profiting on the future.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/roar...-wish-for.html
https://www.globaltrademag.com/the-s...demic-of-1919/
Josher you're a major bull like I am so coming from you this means a lot. Thanks for taking a contrarian view to what you want to see happen. It gives me pause and for good reason.
Vix up dollar up yields up crude down, only banks okay today, clench your butt cheeks
The Fed meeting ends today and you know they will come out and do the dance telling us that things are just great. I'm taking the morning off from trying to trade as I expect about 10 total shares to be traded before the carefully crafted statement comes out. As a matter of fact I believe that the entire meeting for a couple of days is a round table on what the actual words will be for the 2 sentence statement they make.
Eventually the SPY will hit 400 either this week or next. The Nasdaq will get above the resistance it is at now, and maybe challenge the all time highs, but I'm still skeptical. Then in May things will go to shyt and will be in a summer of doom and gloom until the dems come up with the New New Deal which will dwarf the original new deal and this time there will be large infrastructure things to be invested in with the exception of highways oddly enough, and small personal self sustaining items such as solar panels for all the homes.
Speaking of solar. I am looking at putting up some solar panels on my property in PA, but the ole lady has high energy needs for things such as green house lighting and heating, pond water recirculation, all other things that all make my electric usage a challenge for even the best solar panel network to keep up with. So for a 40 kilowatt system, I need around 2500 ft^2 of panels. That will make my yard look like an industrial zone. Add to that my wife also has the environmental reclaiming thing going on for the wildlife, and you can see that most of the land around my castle is wooded. This presents quite the engineering challenge so I am in proposal with the township to get permits to build what I call a solar tree. It is basically a tower with solar panel branches arranged in a way as to maximize the square footage for the space allotted by going vertical. The towers are going to be painted brown to blend in with the trees better. I let you know how it goes and if it catches on because the solar panel system a company quoted me was just a visual nightmare and had no vision of aesthetics which keep the property values from falling.
Are you going through a company or just installing yourself? Where are you buying the panels.... SunRun, Tesla?
opened up a position in AMD
Good price on TDOC here, I know P/S is high but looking at next Amazon, Google, Shopify in their sector, cld also wait for blood in streets next year but why risk it
It's very preliminary, but I got some quotes from local installers here in the Lehigh Valley area (North West Philly burbs): Powerstream Solar, Public Service Solar, Penn Solar, Green Power Energy, and SunnyMac. They all came in around 100K give or take for the 40KW I need to power the compound. They all offered a Solar Tree option, but their version of a Solar Tree and my vision are totally different. They have more of what I would call a solar bush. A little solar gathering toy that barely does marginally better than a standard off roof hook up. Where I would like a giant red wood structure of about 75 to 100 ft tower to emulate the trees that I have on the property of around the same height. With 25K ft^2 of solar need, I need such a tower. This is an easy design, they make antenna towers for 150 ft, and I think I can get upto 15000 ft^2 of effective collection per tower. This tower would be a little beefier than an antenna but really the same concept. 1. A big plop of concrete to form the base. 2. A stout singular galvanized steel column of about 6 ft diameter with branches. I would have a water hookup and auto cleaning apparatus if I had my way.
This idea is totally being met with skepticism from all providers, and they continue to tell me I have to turn my property into a industrial looking power plant. I reject their solutions and maybe designing my own once I get tower design standards and approval from the township. Once I get the tower designed, I may need to patent if possible, but the install will still go to a company that does installation.
Roundhill with another sports related ETF. Their gambling ETF “BETZ” has done well.
https://www.benzinga.com/node/20197754
I noticed how Magi-Lube has a thing on the advertising out today. They call it Phexxi (FECK-see). Tough call but Magi-Lube is better. Either way the word is getting out to bitches all across the land so we are less than 2 years away from a boost in stock prices with this one.
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TRob
TDOC not a good reopening stock, right? i just don't believe people will use the service as much after we go "back to normal" or even 3/4 normal.
unless TDOC is doing something to expand tentacles in another direction, i don't see it.
The pandemic has made a lot of providers and most importantly insurance companies realize they can save cost by doing a lot more virtually. This is a secular trend!!! Many are changing their practice to utilize virtual appointments for certain conditions, ie women with urinary tract infection, diabetes/insulin management...the beauty of Teladoc is by acquiring Livongo they are also piped into their remote monitoring tech....trust me on this one...this will be a 100B+ cap company in 5-10year
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