You know, I've been writing up MLB games here at SBR going on six years now.
This is what I have observed.
In six years (almost) not one veteran poster or respected poster here has even questioned my integrity or credibility.
The very few that has in the past all have zero or next to zero integrity. Funny how that works.
If I make a mistake in providing details in my write ups, it's just that, an honest mistake.
And I don't make many of them, but being a human being and all I am going to make a mistake.
If I say I made a bet for whatever amount, if one has trouble with my claim, ask me about it, I'll always back in up with a screen shot.
I've done it every time in six years, I have gotten this a few times "umm, Nash, did you really bet xxx dollars on xxx team"
My response is always "yes, sure did, hang on a second let me get a screen shot for you"
I don't do this for pay, I do this for shits and giggle.
I'm a) a baseball junkie b) a numbers geek c) I love to write about a and b.
I can't think of any other forums better than this one right here.
Like I said, I don't do this for pay, I don't have a proof reader and I don't have an editor, of course mistakes are going to be made.
If there is a mistake in my bookkeeping, it's just that, an honest mistake.
If there is a mistake in a detail in my write ups, it's just that, an honest mistake.
It's so easy to type 42 and what you really wanted to write is 24.
Funny, if you don't provide reasoning to your selection and just post "Detroit Red Wings 100 dollars" your'e labeled a dart thrower by the ones whose sole purpose on these boards is to troll.
If you provide details to your selections and God forbid make a mistake in the details you're accused of skewing facts.
Like I said, the very select few that try to question one's integrity are the ones that have no integrity and have posted no plays here or if they have they are very few and far between.
Oh well, I hate this expression but here goes anyway.
"Haters going to hate", and as the former great Mayor of NYC Rudy G. once said "if all the people all the time liked everything I was doing, I'm not doing by job.
I guess I'm doing my job here.
September 5 MLB
Everybody has their own methods of handicapping.
I have my methods, I know the poster Biggie who is extremely successful here has his own way of handicapping.
if a method works for you and you are successful that's all that matters.
After Labor Day I try to make it a practice to stay away from betting games where both teams have nothing to play for.
Usually when you get a game between two teams after Labor Day that are totally out of contention for post season play the managers will start some of the minor league players called up when you can expand the dugout roster.
Those games are crap shoots, it's like betting NFL exhibition games.
Today is an interesting slate.
Full complement of 15 games, of which 9 of the 15 games the road team is favored.
I'm what's known as a spot bettor, I don't do these ongoing threads much anymore, this one I'm doing is because I was asked and it's only for a month,
I don't like to lay lumber (bet chalk) when I bet baseball, if you've been doing this for awhile you'll learn betting chalk will cripple your bankroll, and the only successful handicapper that I know of that bets chalk is Benjamin Lee "Dr. Chalk" Eckstein.
I don't want to say never, so I'll say it's extremely rare I'll bet a baseball game over odds over -140
I don't like to go over -134, why 134? 134 is pretty much 4 to win 3. I'll lay 400 to win 300 only if I really love the side.
When handicapping MLB I always, always start with pitching.
Why, pitching wins, it always has and always will.
Been like that since the T-Rex was roaming the earth.
Want proof? The top 12 ranked MLB pitching teams are all teams that are leading their division or are still in contention for a wild card game. The best ranked pitching team not in contention for October baseball are the #13 ranked Pittsburgh Pirates.
As I was saying, usually you don't get 9 road favorites (or 9 home 'dogs if you will) on a baseball slate.
Tonight you do.
As a spot player that really dislikes laying chalk there are two ways to look at those nine games.
Find the spot where the home underdog has value, or bet the road favorite that has the superior pitching match up, bet that game on the run line, for example make that -150 road favorite a +120 underdog and lay 1 1/2 runs.
Betting run lines is a sucker bet (usually) when the side you like is the home team, because you're team is not guaranteed a ninth inning at bat, there are spots when betting the road favorite on the run line can be extremely advantageous, because your side will always get a ninth inning at bat, where you get a chance to expand on a 4-3 lead and win that -1 1/2 bet, a home team winning 4-3 after 8.5 innings doesn't get that chance, your team wins 4-3 but you lose your bet.
The Cubs are -168 on the road tonight against the Pirates.
I'm passing on both sides there.
I don't trust Kyle Hendricks as a big favorite, and reducing the -168 on the run line to -110 has no value in my eyes.
That's my opinion, and I can't bet Pitt because they are starting a cheeseburger lefty that gets killed by RH batters, and Cubs have LH and RH batters that love to eat cheeseburgers. I can not make a case for Pitt, I can for the Cubs, but I don't like Kendricks.
The Nationals with Strasburg are -180 on the road in Miami.
Even though the Nats have the superior pitching match up, I'm not betting either side.
Stras has crippled many a bank roll as a heavy favorite in the past.
Several times he's shit the beat at -200 odds, I don't trust him at either -180 or -120 where in my opinion has next to no value.
Secondly, I would't fade a team that has a road runner at the top of the order followed by Mr. Stanton, Christian Yelich, Ozuna, and Realmuto. No way no how do I like fading that line up.
Yankees are -111 on the road in Baltimore.
I can't bet fat CC because his knee is creaky and can't bend down to pick up a ball, and that makes him a liability, and the Balty bats are lethal.
And I can't bet Hellickson because, well, he's a hamburger that the Yanks bats should abuse.
Can't bet the Indians, well I love to bet the Indians and the Diamondbacks right now because right now those are the best two teams in the majors, you don't have to have the best won-loss record to be the best team in the league.
Anyhow, I can not lay -260 on the road with Salazar, I can't even bet the run line at -150 because laying 3:2 on a run line is still a ton of lumber to lay. BIG.FAT.PASS there.
The Angels are -147 with Garrett Richards making his first start since making his first start back in April when he got hurt.
I'm a huge Garrett and Shoemaker fan out there in Angel land, however I think he's going to be on a short leash pitch count and I don't trust the Angel bull pen, but pulling for the dude big time never the less.
There are four road favorites I am considering betting, and I'm going to handicap those three games hard and will bet the road favorite that has the best value.
They are:
The KC Royals with Vargas over the Detroit Tigers and Dirty Sanchez
Royals are -121, I (after really breaking down the situational splits) can bet straight up, on a run line or use in parlays.
The other two:
Astros with Verlander over Mariners and Miranda at +110 on the run line
This is how I handicap this game.
I determine who has the pitching match up advantage.
The answer is Mr. Kate Upton.
The three batters that can do damage against Veralnder (Cano, Cruz, and Seagar) only Seagar has shown in the past, and the BvP sample size is huge. Cano and Cruz both have pretty weak numbers against JV.
OK, so I've broken down the situational splits on JV I move on to Ariel Miranda.
Like a kick to the nuts, like a punch to my yam bags this sticks out.
Miranda has given up THIRTY (30) home runs to right handed batters alone.
That's an incredible amount of big fly long balls coughed up, and that's just to right handed hitters.
And in case you are wondering yes, Miranda and Porcello are tied for giving up the most HR's in the majors.
And to put it in prospective, I stopped counting after 24 of the number of every day starters that have made all or most of their starts of starting pitchers that have given up less that 20 home runs, forget about 30.
So, even though I know the answer I'll double check the Astro regular everyday hitters that bat right and that can hit left handed pitching well because Miranda pitches with his left hand, and if I don't double check my work I can expect a visit from a trolling idiot or two.
Springer who leads off for Houston loves to hit left handed pitching and bats right. Springer had nine home runs off of southpaws this season, and Altuve your probable AL MVP (him or Trout) many consider the best LH pitching hitter in the game today has seven HR's off of LH batters. Correa the hot shot short stop has 5 HR's off of lefties and get this, he's back off of the disabled list and has only 77 at bats this season off of LH pitchers, Bregman at 3B has 5 homers too.
Correa hits .390 vs. LH pitching, Bregman hits .3497 vs LHP, Altuve, the major league leading hitter hits ONLY .339 against LH pitching and that's considered an off year for him. And Springer and his nine home runs vs. LH pitching, hits .319
Those four all hit at the top of the order, I say nothing is a lock (then the idiot trollers say I am hedging my bets because I say nothing is a lock) well there is no such thing, there is a strong likelihood that Houston wins this game with Mr. Verlander on the hill over Miranda, and I say there is a strong likelihood Houston with those four at the top of the order wins this game too by more than 1 run, since most games are won by more than 1 run.
But first before you bet the game check the lineup card, you never know who might get a day off.
You like propositions?
Only if you can get a good price consider Springer or Correa or Altuve or Bregman to hit a HR in the game prop.
Or a 'YES' to will there be a run scored in the first inning prop. That is if you like prop bets.
I'm wagering that Houston wins by 2 runs or more, damn, the line was +110 half an hour ago, now it's +105.
Damn it.
OK, I am still wagering 100 dead presidents to win 105 dead presidents that Houston does just that.
The final games I am looking at are the Brewers with Davies, but I'll get back to that one, Reds do hit a ton of bombs with Votto and Duvall and their pals, and Scooter is having himself a very nice season, but the Reds starter is a laughing stock punching bag (Stevenson)
The last one is the Cards with Wacha on the road against SD, but I'm throwing that out after looking at the home splits of SD Padres.
They're really a pretty good home team, and the Cards are 33-36 on road, I was starting to look at this game from SD point of view Travis Wood starts for them, as a Royals fan I know Travis Wood, he was an ordinary reliever for KC, then right before being traded Wood was starting, trouble with Wood is he uses 100 pitches to get 6 full innings, he likes giving up the walks, but Wacha is not a road warrior.
The number in my head that'll make me bet SD is +150, and it's sitting right now at +145
These are run line lines I am posting
As of 1 pm
Tue 9/5 |
|
901 Chicago Cubs K Hendricks - R |
-1½ +100 |
|
o8½ -115 |
|
|
7:05PM |
|
902 Pittsburgh Pirates S Brault - L |
+1½ -110 |
|
u8½ +105 |
|
|
Tue 9/5 |
|
903 Milwaukee Brewers Z Davies - R |
-1½ +130 |
|
o9½ -107 |
|
|
7:10PM |
|
904 Cincinnati Reds R Stephenson - R |
+1½ -140 |
|
u9½ -103 |
|
|
Tue 9/5 |
|
905 Washington Nationals S Strasburg - R |
-1½ -110 |
|
o8½ -105 |
|
|
7:10PM |
|
906 Miami Marlins O Despaigne - R |
+1½ +100 |
|
u8½ -105 |
|
|
Tue 9/5 |
|
907 Philadelphia Phillies B Lively - R |
+1½ -120 |
|
o8 -103 |
|
|
7:10PM |
|
908 New York Mets J deGrom - R |
-1½ +110 |
|
u8 -107 |
|
|
Tue 9/5 |
|
909 San Francisco Giants T Blach - L |
+1½ -115 |
|
o12½ +100 |
|
|
8:40PM |
|
910 Colorado Rockies T Chatwood - R |
-1½ +105 |
|
u12½ -110 |
|
|
Tue 9/5 |
|
911 Arizona Diamondbacks Z Greinke - R |
+1½ -185 |
|
o8 +100 |
|
|
10:10PM |
|
912 Los Angeles Dodgers H Ryu - L |
-1½ +170 |
|
u8 -110 |
|
|
Tue 9/5 |
|
913 St. Louis Cardinals M Wacha - R |
-1½ +115 |
|
o8½ +105 |
|
|
10:10PM |
|
914 San Diego Padres T Wood - L |
+1½ -125 |
|
u8½ -115 |
|
|
Tue 9/5 |
|
915 New York Yankees C Sabathia - L |
-1½ +140 |
|
o10 -103 |
|
|
7:05PM |
|
916 Baltimore Orioles J Hellickson - R |
+1½ -150 |
|
u10 -107 |
|
|
Tue 9/5 |
|
917 Toronto Blue Jays M Estrada - R |
+1½ -115 |
|
o9½ -122 |
|
|
7:10PM |
|
918 Boston Red Sox E Rodriguez - L |
-1½ +105 |
|
u9½ +112 |
|
|
Tue 9/5 |
|
919 Minnesota Twins B Colon - R |
+1½ -150 |
|
o9½ +110 |
|
|
7:10PM |
|
920 Tampa Bay Rays J Odorizzi - R |
-1½ +140 |
|
u9½ -120 |
|
|
Tue 9/5 |
|
921 Kansas City Royals J Vargas - L |
-1½ +130 |
|
o10 +100 |
|
|
7:10PM |
|
922 Detroit Tigers A Sanchez - R |
+1½ -140 |
|
u10 -110 |
|
|
Tue 9/5 |
|
923 Cleveland Indians D Salazar - R |
-1½ -145 |
|
o9½ +110 |
|
|
8:10PM |
|
924 Chicago White Sox D Holmberg - L |
+1½ +135 |
|
u9½ -120 |
|
|
Tue 9/5 |
|
925 Los Angeles Angels G Richards - R |
-1½ +120 |
|
o9½ -105 |
|
|
10:05PM |
|
926 Oakland Athletics K Graveman - R |
+1½ -130 |
|
u9½ -105 |
|
|
Tue 9/5 |
|
927 Houston Astros J Verlander - R |
-1½ +105 |
|
o9½ +110 |
|
|
10:10PM |
|
928 Seattle Mariners A Miranda - L |
+1½ -115 |
|
u9½ -120 |
|
|
Tue 9/5 |
|
929 Texas Rangers M Gonzalez - R |
+1½ -200 |
|
o9½ -105 |
|
|
7:35PM |
|
930 Atlanta Braves L Gohara - L |
-1½ +185 |
|
u9½ -105 |
|
I'm starting to swing back to the Brewers, right now it's a strong lean, no play.
If I bet the Brews you guys will be the second to know, I'll be the first to know.
Right now, it's Houston for 1* on the run line.
100 to win 105.
That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
454161160-1 |
9/5/17 1:01pm |
$100.00 |
$105.00 |
Pending |
9/5/17 10:10pm Reduced Baseball 927 Houston Astros -1½ +105* vs Seattle Mariners (J Verlander - R must Start A Miranda - L must Start) |