1. #1
    stevenash
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    Hamburger alert in tonight's MLB action

    Twins (Gibson) at Orioles (Jimenez)

    This one is a real doozy.
    Kyle Gibson is the second worst pitcher on the card against left handed batters and second worst against right handed batters.

    Gibson would be an autofade except Jimenez is the worst against lefties.

    If you play fantasy I'd stack Davis, Shoop, Adam Jones and Trumbo
    And from the Twins I'd stack old man Mauer with Kepler, and Rosario
    Even though they are RH batters, Sano is in play so are switch hitters lard ass Vargas ans SS Polanco.

    I would not touch either side (Balty is -133) and the total is high (as well as it should be) at 10 runs but the over is juiced to the bee-jeezus around -120

    I'll pass

    So, what's the play tonight Nasher, you are wondering?

    Well, I don't want any part of the Oriole game, that leaves six games.
    There's nine on the card, but KC at Yanks and Pitt at Atlanta looks like total wahouts.
    And that's too bad, because that potential Folty against Cole matchup is interesting.
    Folty is finally starting to look like the pitcher he was hyped up to be four years ago.


    Rockies (Hoffman) at Phillies (Eickhoff)

    Phillies are very much in play tonight.
    -114 is too attractive a price to ignore with Eickhoff at home especially.
    The only reason why I think this game is -114 and not -128 or so is because Hoffman's last start was pretty good against the Dodgers, but throw that start out he's a hamburger with an ERA (brief two year career) of 5.40 and a WH/IP ratio of 1.35 which translates into a .391 OBA

    Philly (believe it or not) is one of the best hitting home teams with a team OBA .350, a team wOBA of .351 and they are slugging .667 as a team at home.

    Eickhoff's numbers are not great this season, and the pundits (me included) thought this and his buddy Nola were going to have break out years, however he oozes talent, and Rocks aren't the same mashing team on the road as they are in Denver.

    -114 is a nice (oh no, I'm going to use the 'V' word) vaulue play.

    Another game I like is:

    Angels (Ramirez) at Rays (Odorizzi)

    Let's forget the fact that Jake (from State Farm) is one of my favorite pitchers, he's also the best pitcher in this matchup.
    Like the Philly game -114 on the Rays at home is very attractive.

    Odorizzi's WH/IP for the season is eye popping (0.89) Solid 3.16 ERA, 29K's in seven starts (37 innings) is solid too.
    Nice home numbers too.
    I can't see the Angels flying into Florida scoring double digits again, not off of Jake.

    Also for the life of me, I can't figure out how a team with a staff that starts with Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi, a line up that has two thumpers that are on pace to hit 40 homers (Dickerson and Morrison) not to mention Longoria are only .500 and had to win 4 of their last 5 to get there.

    The Rays should rake JC Ramirez


    Greinke and the Snakes at home should be automatic, against Gonzalez and the White Sox, but I won't touch that.
    a) Nothing is automatic in baseball.
    b) I don't lay 2:1 in baseball, and if anybody lays 2:1 in baseball is playing with fire.
    (And I don't want to hear "there's no juice involved if you win)


    Like the Oriole game, the Indians and Reds feature two hamburgers (Tomlin and Feldman) with Tomlin being the bigger meat ball, unless it's fantasy, I don't want any part of this.

    Brad Peacock makes a spot start for Houston, but that game is too much of a toss up for my liking.
    Houston hosts Detoit and Fullmer in a very intersting game.

    I read in a couple of the baseball sites on how Lackey is a can't miss tonight.
    I'm not so sure. first off I never thought Lackey was all that, even when he was good, secondly he's having a crappy year with a high strikeout rate, that and he's got that Cub batters supporting him, and the Cubs aren't having that magic carpet ride this year like last year.

    Ty Blach starts for SF, he's an up and comer with talent, he's lefty and the Cubs aren't exactly hitting left handed pitching very well this year are they?

    Giants have some sticks that can hit Lackey, like Posey, now I am not advocating SF as a play tonight, I'm tempted to pull the trigger on a small wager at +184.

    I've been known to hit those +184 games in the past.
    I might, I might not, it's tempting.

    OK, lastly.

    I tried to maintain a daily baseball thread, I can't do it.
    I need 2 hours a day, every day and I don't have that kind of time.
    And if I do have that kind of time, I have to be in the mood and not doing other things with my disposable leisure time.

    It has nothing to do with winning, losing or anything else, to do a daily thread correctly you need two hours plus.

    Best of luck tonight, keep an eye on those two games Philly and Tampa Bay, both were -114 an hour ago, curious to see where they land at 7pm.

  2. #2
    TheLock
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    I have a daily thread and spend 35 minutes max on it daily

    God Bless

    https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...es-2017-a.html

  3. #3
    Mackballs
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    Got balty over 10 -105 with local. Gonna go with it. Taking the under is a death wish

  4. #4
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLock View Post
    I have a daily thread and spend 35 minutes max on it daily

    God Bless

    https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...es-2017-a.html
    Good luck

  5. #5
    Mike Huntertz
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    Good and fun read.
    Thnxs

  6. #6
    crackerjack
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    Steve nice post. I have a lot of the same thoughts. Going big on Reds Indians over. Looks way too easy...

  7. #7
    jjgold
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    Tremendous write ups Nashy

  8. #8
    MaddyMax
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    ONly if easy as it seems. Watch gibson throw a complete game shutout today lol.

    that umpire today in balti game is pitcher friendsly and his games average less than 8 runs a game/

  9. #9
    tatddy
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    Quote Originally Posted by MaddyMax View Post
    ONly if easy as it seems. Watch gibson throw a complete game shutout today lol.

    that umpire today in balti game is pitcher friendsly and his games average less than 8 runs a game/
    Reynolds is most certainly NOT pitcher friendly. Average runs per game is useless when it comes to evaluating umps.

  10. #10
    Dirty Sanchez
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    oh I thought jj released another one of his SBR Top Handicapper Lists again

  11. #11
    TheLock
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    Good luck

    Thank you.

    So far, so good. Up 22 units documented.

  12. #12
    daneblazer
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    JC Ramirez has been a different guy since moving to SP

  13. #13
    Smutbucket
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    Quote Originally Posted by daneblazer View Post
    JC Ramirez has been a different guy since moving to SP
    I concur with this statement and would like to add he has a bueatiful curveball addition this season which has allowed him to take on the starter roll....go angels

  14. #14
    daneblazer
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    Ramirez 2er in 1st...sounds about right

  15. #15
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by daneblazer View Post
    Ramirez 2er in 1st...sounds about right
    Yeah, but it looks like I got Eickhoff wrong.
    Blackmon is a beast, just as beastly as Arendo.

    Rox 3-0.
    Everything else I have looks good early though

  16. #16
    miltonschwartz
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    Phenomenal call on the giants

  17. #17
    2daBank
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    Yeah, but it looks like I got Eickhoff wrong.
    Blackmon is a beast, just as beastly as Arendo.

    Rox 3-0.
    Everything else I have looks good early though

    i dont know their hitting numbers on the road this season but unlike past versions this rox team been great on the road this season. it could be they actually have quality arms now more so than bats and im sure these guys (starters and pen) always happy to get away from coors. kid tonight was a higher rated prospect than marquez and he been really solid so assumed he was another quality arm and looks to have good stuff..i feel like they been way off with rockies lines of late and been scratching my head as to why. after reading your thoughts the ide occurred to me it could be the perception that rox are not a good road team.

    always glad to see you post as we can never have enough guys around here that actually know and understand the mlb as you do

  18. #18
    Mike Huntertz
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    Hamburger alert..no sh!t!
    I took over and glad I did.

    Thanxs

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