Twins (Gibson) at Orioles (Jimenez)
This one is a real doozy.
Kyle Gibson is the second worst pitcher on the card against left handed batters and second worst against right handed batters.
Gibson would be an autofade except Jimenez is the worst against lefties.
If you play fantasy I'd stack Davis, Shoop, Adam Jones and Trumbo
And from the Twins I'd stack old man Mauer with Kepler, and Rosario
Even though they are RH batters, Sano is in play so are switch hitters lard ass Vargas ans SS Polanco.
I would not touch either side (Balty is -133) and the total is high (as well as it should be) at 10 runs but the over is juiced to the bee-jeezus around -120
I'll pass
So, what's the play tonight Nasher, you are wondering?
Well, I don't want any part of the Oriole game, that leaves six games.
There's nine on the card, but KC at Yanks and Pitt at Atlanta looks like total wahouts.
And that's too bad, because that potential Folty against Cole matchup is interesting.
Folty is finally starting to look like the pitcher he was hyped up to be four years ago.
Rockies (Hoffman) at Phillies (Eickhoff)
Phillies are very much in play tonight.
-114 is too attractive a price to ignore with Eickhoff at home especially.
The only reason why I think this game is -114 and not -128 or so is because Hoffman's last start was pretty good against the Dodgers, but throw that start out he's a hamburger with an ERA (brief two year career) of 5.40 and a WH/IP ratio of 1.35 which translates into a .391 OBA
Philly (believe it or not) is one of the best hitting home teams with a team OBA .350, a team wOBA of .351 and they are slugging .667 as a team at home.
Eickhoff's numbers are not great this season, and the pundits (me included) thought this and his buddy Nola were going to have break out years, however he oozes talent, and Rocks aren't the same mashing team on the road as they are in Denver.
-114 is a nice (oh no, I'm going to use the 'V' word) vaulue play.
Another game I like is:
Angels (Ramirez) at Rays (Odorizzi)
Let's forget the fact that Jake (from State Farm) is one of my favorite pitchers, he's also the best pitcher in this matchup.
Like the Philly game -114 on the Rays at home is very attractive.
Odorizzi's WH/IP for the season is eye popping (0.89) Solid 3.16 ERA, 29K's in seven starts (37 innings) is solid too.
Nice home numbers too.
I can't see the Angels flying into Florida scoring double digits again, not off of Jake.
Also for the life of me, I can't figure out how a team with a staff that starts with Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi, a line up that has two thumpers that are on pace to hit 40 homers (Dickerson and Morrison) not to mention Longoria are only .500 and had to win 4 of their last 5 to get there.
The Rays should rake JC Ramirez
Greinke and the Snakes at home should be automatic, against Gonzalez and the White Sox, but I won't touch that.
a) Nothing is automatic in baseball.
b) I don't lay 2:1 in baseball, and if anybody lays 2:1 in baseball is playing with fire.
(And I don't want to hear "there's no juice involved if you win)
Like the Oriole game, the Indians and Reds feature two hamburgers (Tomlin and Feldman) with Tomlin being the bigger meat ball, unless it's fantasy, I don't want any part of this.
Brad Peacock makes a spot start for Houston, but that game is too much of a toss up for my liking.
Houston hosts Detoit and Fullmer in a very intersting game.
I read in a couple of the baseball sites on how Lackey is a can't miss tonight.
I'm not so sure. first off I never thought Lackey was all that, even when he was good, secondly he's having a crappy year with a high strikeout rate, that and he's got that Cub batters supporting him, and the Cubs aren't having that magic carpet ride this year like last year.
Ty Blach starts for SF, he's an up and comer with talent, he's lefty and the Cubs aren't exactly hitting left handed pitching very well this year are they?
Giants have some sticks that can hit Lackey, like Posey, now I am not advocating SF as a play tonight, I'm tempted to pull the trigger on a small wager at +184.
I've been known to hit those +184 games in the past.
I might, I might not, it's tempting.
OK, lastly.
I tried to maintain a daily baseball thread, I can't do it.
I need 2 hours a day, every day and I don't have that kind of time.
And if I do have that kind of time, I have to be in the mood and not doing other things with my disposable leisure time.
It has nothing to do with winning, losing or anything else, to do a daily thread correctly you need two hours plus.
Best of luck tonight, keep an eye on those two games Philly and Tampa Bay, both were -114 an hour ago, curious to see where they land at 7pm.
This one is a real doozy.
Kyle Gibson is the second worst pitcher on the card against left handed batters and second worst against right handed batters.
Gibson would be an autofade except Jimenez is the worst against lefties.
If you play fantasy I'd stack Davis, Shoop, Adam Jones and Trumbo
And from the Twins I'd stack old man Mauer with Kepler, and Rosario
Even though they are RH batters, Sano is in play so are switch hitters lard ass Vargas ans SS Polanco.
I would not touch either side (Balty is -133) and the total is high (as well as it should be) at 10 runs but the over is juiced to the bee-jeezus around -120
I'll pass
So, what's the play tonight Nasher, you are wondering?
Well, I don't want any part of the Oriole game, that leaves six games.
There's nine on the card, but KC at Yanks and Pitt at Atlanta looks like total wahouts.
And that's too bad, because that potential Folty against Cole matchup is interesting.
Folty is finally starting to look like the pitcher he was hyped up to be four years ago.
Rockies (Hoffman) at Phillies (Eickhoff)
Phillies are very much in play tonight.
-114 is too attractive a price to ignore with Eickhoff at home especially.
The only reason why I think this game is -114 and not -128 or so is because Hoffman's last start was pretty good against the Dodgers, but throw that start out he's a hamburger with an ERA (brief two year career) of 5.40 and a WH/IP ratio of 1.35 which translates into a .391 OBA
Philly (believe it or not) is one of the best hitting home teams with a team OBA .350, a team wOBA of .351 and they are slugging .667 as a team at home.
Eickhoff's numbers are not great this season, and the pundits (me included) thought this and his buddy Nola were going to have break out years, however he oozes talent, and Rocks aren't the same mashing team on the road as they are in Denver.
-114 is a nice (oh no, I'm going to use the 'V' word) vaulue play.
Another game I like is:
Angels (Ramirez) at Rays (Odorizzi)
Let's forget the fact that Jake (from State Farm) is one of my favorite pitchers, he's also the best pitcher in this matchup.
Like the Philly game -114 on the Rays at home is very attractive.
Odorizzi's WH/IP for the season is eye popping (0.89) Solid 3.16 ERA, 29K's in seven starts (37 innings) is solid too.
Nice home numbers too.
I can't see the Angels flying into Florida scoring double digits again, not off of Jake.
Also for the life of me, I can't figure out how a team with a staff that starts with Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi, a line up that has two thumpers that are on pace to hit 40 homers (Dickerson and Morrison) not to mention Longoria are only .500 and had to win 4 of their last 5 to get there.
The Rays should rake JC Ramirez
Greinke and the Snakes at home should be automatic, against Gonzalez and the White Sox, but I won't touch that.
a) Nothing is automatic in baseball.
b) I don't lay 2:1 in baseball, and if anybody lays 2:1 in baseball is playing with fire.
(And I don't want to hear "there's no juice involved if you win)
Like the Oriole game, the Indians and Reds feature two hamburgers (Tomlin and Feldman) with Tomlin being the bigger meat ball, unless it's fantasy, I don't want any part of this.
Brad Peacock makes a spot start for Houston, but that game is too much of a toss up for my liking.
Houston hosts Detoit and Fullmer in a very intersting game.
I read in a couple of the baseball sites on how Lackey is a can't miss tonight.
I'm not so sure. first off I never thought Lackey was all that, even when he was good, secondly he's having a crappy year with a high strikeout rate, that and he's got that Cub batters supporting him, and the Cubs aren't having that magic carpet ride this year like last year.
Ty Blach starts for SF, he's an up and comer with talent, he's lefty and the Cubs aren't exactly hitting left handed pitching very well this year are they?
Giants have some sticks that can hit Lackey, like Posey, now I am not advocating SF as a play tonight, I'm tempted to pull the trigger on a small wager at +184.
I've been known to hit those +184 games in the past.
I might, I might not, it's tempting.
OK, lastly.
I tried to maintain a daily baseball thread, I can't do it.
I need 2 hours a day, every day and I don't have that kind of time.
And if I do have that kind of time, I have to be in the mood and not doing other things with my disposable leisure time.
It has nothing to do with winning, losing or anything else, to do a daily thread correctly you need two hours plus.
Best of luck tonight, keep an eye on those two games Philly and Tampa Bay, both were -114 an hour ago, curious to see where they land at 7pm.
