[TPowell]

Any thoughts? Have eyed this one for a while, juice dropped a bunch to -210 recently. Hard to believe because to do this, Clinton HAS to win Georgia and Trump is currently -260 in Georgia. Even if he loses Georgia, he still has a path to win this play for me. He could win the states below and just win Iowa as his lone swing state to hold Clinton to 269 votes. Keep in mind that Missouri, Iowa, and the 1 vote Nebraska CD are the only things even remotely close to being losable. Iowa is a toss up and he has a healthy lead in Missouri and the Nebraska CD. That is conceding Ohio, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada to Hilary Clinton. If Trump were to win Georgia, Florida, or Ohio, he could lose all of those "close" states I mentioned earlier like Missouri, Iowa, and the 1 Nebraska CD and STILL cash this.

Trump wins: Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska AND 1 Nebraska CD, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming (369-169)

[TPowell]

Please no BS comments about policies or something stupid. This place is meant to discuss picks, not political views

[DrunkHorseplayer]

Trump is falling fast and Clinton has a real shot at smoking him; very risky at -210.

[TPowell]

Trump is falling fast and Clinton has a real shot at smoking him; very risky at -210.

Yeah, my one worry is that but the states he needs to hang onto are so conservative that I don't think it'll really matter what he does.

[DrunkHorseplayer]

I read that one poll shows a dead heat in Utah. Even if it's only one poll, that's just amazing and it spells doom for Trump.

[TPowell]

I read that one poll shows a dead heat in Utah. Even if it's only one poll, that's just amazing and it spells doom for Trump.

I saw that. Last poll had some Independent guy getting 20% of the vote and screwing him. I just don't see that happening when it gets down to it. That isn't a real representation nationally though because that guy is only on the ballot in Utah. That play probably comes down to Georgia more than likely

[DrunkHorseplayer]

I wouldn't be too quick to dismiss Utah; I think the ultra conservative voters have figured out that this election is between two NY liberals and a bunch of them won't vote for either one. 20% seems a bit much but I could see him getting double digits and sabotaging Trump.

[TPowell]

I wouldn't be too quick to dismiss Utah; I think the ultra conservative voters have figured out that this election is between two NY liberals and a bunch of them won't vote for either one. 20% seems a bit much but I could see him getting double digits and sabotaging Trump.

That lost poll he was at 20% and Trump was still either ahead or dead even, I forgot. Nate Silver's site had Trump at over 75% to win Utah even after that poll came out, which is in line IMO

[stealthyburrito]

I think that's a great bet, been reading Sabato's "crystal ball" news letter and he's projecting between 335-350 (basically between '12 - '08 Obama electoral college). Looks like she'll pull Michigan but I don't she will capture Utah despite it's recent swing back to a toss up state.

[TPowell]

I think that's a great bet, been reading Sabato's "crystal ball" news letter and he's projecting between 335-350 (basically between '12 - '08 Obama electoral college). Looks like she'll pull Michigan but I don't she will capture Utah despite it's recent swing back to a toss up state.

Weird situation because I like Clinton OVER 320 (-110) but I love the UNDER 369.5 as well. I advise everyone to "play" with an interactive electoral map and see what you come up with. She's a lock in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin plus Penn and Virginia but to get to 370, she has to win EVERYTHING. She has to steal North Carolina and Georgia, 2 big red states and she also has to win the typical battleground states like Iowa, Ohio, Florida, and Arizona

[mcdonae101]

What book offers this tpowell? And what's the limit?

[TPowell]

What book offers this tpowell? And what's the limit?

5Dimes, I'm not totally sure but it looks like $200 maybe? I had a for fun parlay that I tossed it on. Had that -210 and Conor -150

[TPowell]

I may be limited there though after I destroyed some of the politics props the past couple months

[mcdonae101]

Thanx, will look into it. This bet is free $

[thechaoz]

It's a lock

[sportsfan9698]

No politics here... I know I am correct in warning any of you wagering HRC in any regard on this election... silent majority is not reflected in polls. Best evidence I can give is BREXIT

I will have a wager placed 11/8 for Trump +400 or +600 or whatever

[jim]

It's a lock

yep, hillary will be in lockup shortly.

[TPowell]

Line went up 70 cents between this thread and right now

[d2bets]

369.5 is a good number. My map for her has 368. Not impossible though. I'd take a shot on over at +275 or better.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

How many votes will LIB (Johnson) get?

I'd imagine that LIB total will skyrocket vs 2012 total.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I think he clears 2mill ez:

Year	Pres. candidate / VP	Popular votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
1972	John Hospers / Theodora Nathan	3,674	<1%	1
1976	Roger MacBride / David Bergland	172,553	<1%	0
1980	Ed Clark / David Koch	921,128	1%	0
1984	David Bergland / James Lewis	228,111	<1%	0
1988	Ron Paul / Andre Marrou(campaign)	431,750	<1%	0
1992	Andre Marrou / Nancy Lord	290,087	<1%	0
1996	Harry Browne / Jo Jorgensen	485,759	<1%	0
2000	Harry Browne / Art Olivier(campaign)	384,431	<1%	0
2004	Michael Badnarik / Richard Campagna (campaign)	397,265	<1%	0
2008	Bob Barr / Wayne Allyn Root(campaign)	523,713	<1%	0
2012	Gary Johnson / Jim Gray(campaign)	1,275,821	1%	0
2016	Gary Johnson / William Weld(campaign)	TBD	TBD	TBD

[TPowell]

369.5 is a good number. My map for her has 368. Not impossible though. I'd take a shot on over at +275 or better.

I just don't see it man. She literally has to run the board of swing states AND get Georgia unless she gets Alaska or Utah or another dominant red state

[d2bets]

I think he clears 2mill ez:

Year	Pres. candidate / VP	Popular votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
1972	John Hospers / Theodora Nathan	3,674	<1%	1
1976	Roger MacBride / David Bergland	172,553	<1%	0
1980	Ed Clark / David Koch	921,128	1%	0
1984	David Bergland / James Lewis	228,111	<1%	0
1988	Ron Paul / Andre Marrou(campaign)	431,750	<1%	0
1992	Andre Marrou / Nancy Lord	290,087	<1%	0
1996	Harry Browne / Jo Jorgensen	485,759	<1%	0
2000	Harry Browne / Art Olivier(campaign)	384,431	<1%	0
2004	Michael Badnarik / Richard Campagna (campaign)	397,265	<1%	0
2008	Bob Barr / Wayne Allyn Root(campaign)	523,713	<1%	0
2012	Gary Johnson / Jim Gray(campaign)	1,275,821	1%	0
2016	Gary Johnson / William Weld(campaign)	TBD	TBD	TBD

Way more. He will get right around 5-6% which is probably over 6 million votes.

[TPowell]

I am somewhat interested in the OVER 320 votes at -120. I really think she sweeps Ohio, Florida, and obviously the blue leaning states like Michigan, Penn, Wisky, Minny, and Virginia

[d2bets]

I just don't see it man. She literally has to run the board of swing states AND get Georgia unless she gets Alaska or Utah or another dominant red state

Yes, Georgia and Arizona, and also North Carolina. The other "swing states" - Florida, Penn, Ohio, NC are easy. But I'm giving Trump Iowa, Utah, Alaska, etc.

[d2bets]

I am somewhat interested in the OVER 320 votes at -120. I really think she sweeps Ohio, Florida, and obviously the blue leaning states like Michigan, Penn, Wisky, Minny, and Virginia

Easy money.

Take away Arizona, Georgia and Ohio and she's still 323. If she wins Florida she goes O320.

[TPowell]

Yes, Georgia and Arizona, and also North Carolina. The other "swing states" - Florida, Penn, Ohio, NC are easy. But I'm giving Trump Iowa, Utah, Alaska, etc.

Utah and Alaska SHOULD be easy for Trump. Iowa is a clear toss up state as well as Arizona. Georgia is the key state and it sits at -310 for Trump now. North Carolina isn't a lock but I would say the others are pretty clear for Clinton

[Mac4Lyfe]

This seems like a great bet but you never know what this last debate may hold? I still think we get some surprises in the next couple of weeks.

[TPowell]

This seems like a great bet but you never know what this last debate may hold? I still think we get some surprises in the next couple of weeks.

I wouldn't doubt it at all Mac. I just don't think the perception of Trump can get any worse lol

[stealthyburrito]

I am somewhat interested in the OVER 320 votes at -120. I really think she sweeps Ohio, Florida, and obviously the blue leaning states like Michigan, Penn, Wisky, Minny, and Virginia

Mich, VA, Penn, Minn are safely in her camp as of most current projections. Wisky would be my only concern but I think you might be on to something with NC as you mentioned earlier. Picking up NC would be a nice offset and more if she loses out on wisky.

Also, wouldn't completely discount her sneaking up in AZ with a growing Hispanic pop.

[TPowell]

Mich, VA, Penn, Minn are safely in her camp as of most current projections. Wisky would be my only concern but I think you might be on to something with NC as you mentioned earlier. Picking up NC would be a nice offset and more if she loses out on wisky.

Also, wouldn't completely discount her sneaking up in AZ with a growing Hispanic pop.

My only concern with making a pro Clinton play now is that she may be at her peak. A slight fall off and these races in Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina are all of a sudden razor tight

[EmpireMaker]

I think he clears 2mill ez:

Year	Pres. candidate / VP	Popular votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
1972	John Hospers / Theodora Nathan	3,674	<1%	1
1976	Roger MacBride / David Bergland	172,553	<1%	0
1980	Ed Clark / David Koch	921,128	1%	0
1984	David Bergland / James Lewis	228,111	<1%	0
1988	Ron Paul / Andre Marrou(campaign)	431,750	<1%	0
1992	Andre Marrou / Nancy Lord	290,087	<1%	0
1996	Harry Browne / Jo Jorgensen	485,759	<1%	0
2000	Harry Browne / Art Olivier(campaign)	384,431	<1%	0
2004	Michael Badnarik / Richard Campagna (campaign)	397,265	<1%	0
2008	Bob Barr / Wayne Allyn Root(campaign)	523,713	<1%	0
2012	Gary Johnson / Jim Gray(campaign)	1,275,821	1%	0
2016	Gary Johnson / William Weld(campaign)	TBD	TBD	TBD

He should get around 6% so maybe 6-7 million votes

[stealthyburrito]

My only concern with making a pro Clinton play now is that she may be at her peak. A slight fall off and these races in Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina are all of a sudden razor tight

Valid concern - I think what the polls indicate to us with Republican cornstone states like AZ and UT is a reflection of a lack of confidence in the republican candidate rather than an affirmation of support in the democratic candidate. Problem with this cycle is we've had so many flashpoint events that have caused media storms the map can switch dramatically. During Clinton's Sept swoon we were seeing barely a majority electoral college vote in her favor, now 2 weeks later an electoral landslide is not out of the realm of possibility. If polls continue to trend against Trump in UT, GA and/or AZ then I might conclude we have not seen Clinton's peak yet.

[Greget]

No politics here... I know I am correct in warning any of you wagering HRC in any regard on this election... silent majority is not reflected in polls. Best evidence I can give is BREXIT

I will have a wager placed 11/8 for Trump +400 or +600 or whatever

Silent majority has no reason to be silent in anonymous phone or online polls. Nate Silver uses polls and demographic information to make predictions, so has nothing to do with a silent majority that may or may not even exist outside of your mind.

[d2bets]

Trump is telling his supporters that it's rigged - meaning he knows he's going to lose - so why should they bother to vote. He might very well lose by DD.