Any thoughts? Have eyed this one for a while, juice dropped a bunch to -210 recently. Hard to believe because to do this, Clinton HAS to win Georgia and Trump is currently -260 in Georgia. Even if he loses Georgia, he still has a path to win this play for me. He could win the states below and just win Iowa as his lone swing state to hold Clinton to 269 votes. Keep in mind that Missouri, Iowa, and the 1 vote Nebraska CD are the only things even remotely close to being losable. Iowa is a toss up and he has a healthy lead in Missouri and the Nebraska CD. That is conceding Ohio, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada to Hilary Clinton. If Trump were to win Georgia, Florida, or Ohio, he could lose all of those "close" states I mentioned earlier like Missouri, Iowa, and the 1 Nebraska CD and STILL cash this.
Trump wins: Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska AND 1 Nebraska CD, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming (369-169)
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Please no BS comments about policies or something stupid. This place is meant to discuss picks, not political viewsComment -
Trump is falling fast and Clinton has a real shot at smoking him; very risky at -210.Comment -
Yeah, my one worry is that but the states he needs to hang onto are so conservative that I don't think it'll really matter what he does.Originally posted by DrunkHorseplayerComment -
I read that one poll shows a dead heat in Utah. Even if it's only one poll, that's just amazing and it spells doom for Trump.Comment -
I saw that. Last poll had some Independent guy getting 20% of the vote and screwing him. I just don't see that happening when it gets down to it. That isn't a real representation nationally though because that guy is only on the ballot in Utah. That play probably comes down to Georgia more than likelyOriginally posted by DrunkHorseplayerComment -
I wouldn't be too quick to dismiss Utah; I think the ultra conservative voters have figured out that this election is between two NY liberals and a bunch of them won't vote for either one. 20% seems a bit much but I could see him getting double digits and sabotaging Trump.Comment -
That lost poll he was at 20% and Trump was still either ahead or dead even, I forgot. Nate Silver's site had Trump at over 75% to win Utah even after that poll came out, which is in line IMOOriginally posted by DrunkHorseplayerComment -
I think that's a great bet, been reading Sabato's "crystal ball" news letter and he's projecting between 335-350 (basically between '12 - '08 Obama electoral college). Looks like she'll pull Michigan but I don't she will capture Utah despite it's recent swing back to a toss up state.Comment -
Weird situation because I like Clinton OVER 320 (-110) but I love the UNDER 369.5 as well. I advise everyone to "play" with an interactive electoral map and see what you come up with. She's a lock in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin plus Penn and Virginia but to get to 370, she has to win EVERYTHING. She has to steal North Carolina and Georgia, 2 big red states and she also has to win the typical battleground states like Iowa, Ohio, Florida, and ArizonaOriginally posted by stealthyburritoComment -
What book offers this tpowell? And what's the limit?Comment -
5Dimes, I'm not totally sure but it looks like $200 maybe? I had a for fun parlay that I tossed it on. Had that -210 and Conor -150Originally posted by mcdonae101Comment -
I may be limited there though after I destroyed some of the politics props the past couple monthsComment -
Thanx, will look into it. This bet is free $Comment -
It's a lockComment -
No politics here... I know I am correct in warning any of you wagering HRC in any regard on this election... silent majority is not reflected in polls. Best evidence I can give is BREXIT
I will have a wager placed 11/8 for Trump +400 or +600 or whateverComment -
Originally posted by thechaoz
yep, hillary will be in lockup shortly.Comment -
Line went up 70 cents between this thread and right now
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369.5 is a good number. My map for her has 368. Not impossible though. I'd take a shot on over at +275 or better.Comment -
How many votes will LIB (Johnson) get?
I'd imagine that LIB total will skyrocket vs 2012 total.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
I think he clears 2mill ez:
1972 John Hospers / Theodora Nathan 3,674 <1% 1 1976 Roger MacBride / David Bergland 172,553 <1% 0 1980 Ed Clark / David Koch 921,128 1% 0 1984 David Bergland / James Lewis 228,111 <1% 0 1988 Ron Paul / Andre Marrou(campaign) 431,750 <1% 0 1992 Andre Marrou / Nancy Lord 290,087 <1% 0 1996 Harry Browne / Jo Jorgensen 485,759 <1% 0 2000 Harry Browne / Art Olivier(campaign) 384,431 <1% 0 2004 Michael Badnarik / Richard Campagna (campaign) 397,265 <1% 0 2008 Bob Barr / Wayne Allyn Root(campaign) 523,713 <1% 0 2012 Gary Johnson / Jim Gray(campaign) 1,275,821 1% 0 2016 Gary Johnson / William Weld(campaign) TBD TBD TBD Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Originally posted by d2bets
I just don't see it man. She literally has to run the board of swing states AND get Georgia unless she gets Alaska or Utah or another dominant red stateComment -
Way more. He will get right around 5-6% which is probably over 6 million votes.Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoatComment -
I am somewhat interested in the OVER 320 votes at -120. I really think she sweeps Ohio, Florida, and obviously the blue leaning states like Michigan, Penn, Wisky, Minny, and VirginiaComment -
Yes, Georgia and Arizona, and also North Carolina. The other "swing states" - Florida, Penn, Ohio, NC are easy. But I'm giving Trump Iowa, Utah, Alaska, etc.Originally posted by TPowellComment -
Easy money.Originally posted by TPowell
Take away Arizona, Georgia and Ohio and she's still 323. If she wins Florida she goes O320.Comment -
Utah and Alaska SHOULD be easy for Trump. Iowa is a clear toss up state as well as Arizona. Georgia is the key state and it sits at -310 for Trump now. North Carolina isn't a lock but I would say the others are pretty clear for ClintonOriginally posted by d2betsComment -
This seems like a great bet but you never know what this last debate may hold? I still think we get some surprises in the next couple of weeks.Comment -
I wouldn't doubt it at all Mac. I just don't think the perception of Trump can get any worse lolOriginally posted by Mac4LyfeComment -
Mich, VA, Penn, Minn are safely in her camp as of most current projections. Wisky would be my only concern but I think you might be on to something with NC as you mentioned earlier. Picking up NC would be a nice offset and more if she loses out on wisky.Originally posted by TPowell
Also, wouldn't completely discount her sneaking up in AZ with a growing Hispanic pop.Comment -
Originally posted by stealthyburrito
My only concern with making a pro Clinton play now is that she may be at her peak. A slight fall off and these races in Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina are all of a sudden razor tightComment -
He should get around 6% so maybe 6-7 million votesOriginally posted by ChuckyTheGoatComment -
Valid concern - I think what the polls indicate to us with Republican cornstone states like AZ and UT is a reflection of a lack of confidence in the republican candidate rather than an affirmation of support in the democratic candidate. Problem with this cycle is we've had so many flashpoint events that have caused media storms the map can switch dramatically. During Clinton's Sept swoon we were seeing barely a majority electoral college vote in her favor, now 2 weeks later an electoral landslide is not out of the realm of possibility. If polls continue to trend against Trump in UT, GA and/or AZ then I might conclude we have not seen Clinton's peak yet.Originally posted by TPowellComment -
Silent majority has no reason to be silent in anonymous phone or online polls. Nate Silver uses polls and demographic information to make predictions, so has nothing to do with a silent majority that may or may not even exist outside of your mind.Originally posted by sportsfan9698Comment -
Trump is telling his supporters that it's rigged - meaning he knows he's going to lose - so why should they bother to vote. He might very well lose by DD.Comment
