1. 10-16-16 11:19 AM #36
    mcdonae101
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    Trump is telling his supporters that it's rigged - meaning he knows he's going to lose - so why should they bother to vote. He might very well lose by DD.
    Still waiting on Rubio to win Florida and contested convention like u promised
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  2. 10-16-16 11:23 AM #37
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by mcdonae101 View Post
    Still waiting on Rubio to win Florida and contested convention like u promised
    If you've never had a incorrect prediction, then you've never made a prediction.
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  3. 10-18-16 03:22 PM #38
    DrunkHorseplayer
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    Looks like Clinton has pulled within a few points in Texas, which is absolutely ridiculous. You're playing with fire if you're still going to lay -210.
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  4. 10-18-16 03:53 PM #39
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by DrunkHorseplayer View Post
    Looks like Clinton has pulled within a few points in Texas, which is absolutely ridiculous. You're playing with fire if you're still going to lay -210.
    If she wins Texas it goes over easy. Probably 400+.
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  5. 10-18-16 07:23 PM #40
    habitualwinning
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    There's no way in hell that bet loses OP. The problem is how much can you get down on it? I've played around with the political math and done dozens of simulations. The only way she can get over 370 is if some Republican powerhouse state like Texas or Tennessee went to Hillary and quite frankly that's not happening. If she wins every single swing state she's still at 360 and that includes the swing states that Trump is winning too. Obama didn't get to 370 so no way in hell Hillary will. She's not Reagan and it's not 1984. What's max bet on that prop?
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  6. 10-18-16 07:25 PM #41
    habitualwinning
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    If she wins Texas it goes over easy. Probably 400+.
    I'll bet you $1000 USD worth of BTC right now that Hillary doesn't get 370 electoral votes this election. You in or are you scared brah?
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  7. 10-18-16 07:31 PM #42
    habitualwinning
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    Quote Originally Posted by DrunkHorseplayer View Post
    I read that one poll shows a dead heat in Utah. Even if it's only one poll, that's just amazing and it spells doom for Trump.
    No way in hell she wins Utah. Polls are irrelevant. They sample like 1000 people from urban areas. Not an accurate representation of statewide voters at all.
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  8. 10-18-16 07:34 PM #43
    DrunkHorseplayer
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    The fact that two automatic Red States (Texas and Utah) are even close should send up a huge red flag to anyone thinking of betting that Clinton won't go over 369.5. Keep in mind that there are still three weeks to go, the media is in Clinton's back pocket and Trump might, with the attitude that a loss by one is a loss by a hundred, say or do something ridiculous to try and turn the tide and dig himself even deeper. I could fathom making the bet if it was even money but -210 is out of the question.
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  9. 10-18-16 07:48 PM #44
    habitualwinning
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    Quote Originally Posted by DrunkHorseplayer View Post
    The fact that two automatic Red States (Texas and Utah) are even close should send up a huge red flag to anyone thinking of betting that Clinton won't go over 369.5. Keep in mind that there are still three weeks to go, the media is in Clinton's back pocket and Trump might, with the attitude that a loss by one is a loss by a hundred, say or do something ridiculous to try and turn the tide and dig himself even deeper. I could fathom making the bet if it was even money but -210 is out of the question.
    People aren't just going to switch party affiliation because of one jackass candidate(Trump). The states that always go red will still go red. This bet is an absolute lock if there even is such a thing in gambling. The Republicans(Trump) will still win the Republican states, Utah, Georgia, Arizona, Texas, Tennessee, all of the plains states etc. She might very well blow him out by winning all of the rust belt swing states and Florida but she's not going to run the map like Reagan did in 1984. Somewhere in the 300-340 range is much much more realistic if she were to win big. Obama was a lock against McCain and Romney and didn't even get close to the 370 mark. Hillary is not better than Obama.
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  10. 10-18-16 07:51 PM #45
    TPowell
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    Quote Originally Posted by habitualwinning View Post
    People aren't just going to switch party affiliation because of one jackass candidate(Trump). The states that always go red will still go red. This bet is an absolute lock if there even is such a thing in gambling. The Republicans(Trump) will still win the Republican states, Utah, Georgia, Arizona, Texas, Tennessee, all of the plains states etc. She might very well blow him out by winning all of the rust belt swing states and Florida but she's not going to run the map like Reagan did in 1984. Somewhere in the 300-340 range is much much more realistic if she were to win big. Obama was a lock against McCain and Romney and didn't even get close to the 370 mark. Hillary is not better than Obama.

    yeah I trust party allegiance will play out in Texas and traditional red states. Give Clinton ALL the swing states and she doesn't really even get that close to 370. Line is at -270 now, so I think I got a good price there. Line had been hanging at -280 for a while
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  11. 10-18-16 08:15 PM #46
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by TPowell View Post
    yeah I trust party allegiance will play out in Texas and traditional red states. Give Clinton ALL the swing states and she doesn't really even get that close to 370. Line is at -270 now, so I think I got a good price there. Line had been hanging at -280 for a while
    No doubt. 370 is landslide country. She'd have to win nationally by 7-8 minimum.
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  12. 10-19-16 12:46 AM #47
    habitualwinning
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    Quote Originally Posted by TPowell View Post
    yeah I trust party allegiance will play out in Texas and traditional red states. Give Clinton ALL the swing states and she doesn't really even get that close to 370. Line is at -270 now, so I think I got a good price there. Line had been hanging at -280 for a while
    I'll give you $100 USD worth of Bitcoin if your under 369.5 on Clinton loses. Consider it like a bad beat jackpot at a casino poker room. I've never seen a line in my betting life that I was more confident in. Is 5Dimes the only book offering this political prop bet or is it also up at other books? I think you got a great price, even though there's a low limit on it but still.
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  13. 10-19-16 08:21 AM #48
    d2bets
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    Georgia and Arizona don't get Hillary O369.5. She'd need to win one of Iowa, Missouri, Utah, South Carolina, Indiana, or of course Texas.
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  14. 10-19-16 08:27 AM #49
    mcdonae101
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    If you've never had a incorrect prediction, then you've never made a prediction.
    Ive never had multiple incorrect predictions regarding one thing like you have with trump
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  15. 10-19-16 08:53 AM #50
    TPowell
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    Quote Originally Posted by habitualwinning View Post
    I'll give you $100 USD worth of Bitcoin if your under 369.5 on Clinton loses. Consider it like a bad beat jackpot at a casino poker room. I've never seen a line in my betting life that I was more confident in. Is 5Dimes the only book offering this political prop bet or is it also up at other books? I think you got a great price, even though there's a low limit on it but still.

    Yeah limits suck but have to grind it out where you can. I've only saw that prop at 5D but I'm sure it's at other places, just not sure where
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  16. 10-19-16 09:08 AM #51
    bruceBRUCEbruce
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    Trump is telling his supporters that it's rigged -
    this is hilarious
    elections are rigged...yet the republicans have a majority in the house, the senate, and more than half of state governors are Rs
    that being said I think the under on this wager will be mighty tight...
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  17. 10-19-16 10:24 AM #52
    habitualwinning
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    Georgia and Arizona don't get Hillary O369.5. She'd need to win one of Iowa, Missouri, Utah, South Carolina, Indiana, or of course Texas.
    She might win Iowa however, she won't win Iowa, Arizona and Georgia all together. That's the combo she would need to win this bet plus all the other swing states also on top of it all.

    To look at it from the other point of view. If Trump holds in any one of the major swing states, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, this bet is immediately over before we even get to the mountain time zone states cause she won't have the path to get there at that point.
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  18. 10-19-16 10:35 AM #53
    DrunkHorseplayer
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    No doubt. 370 is landslide country. She'd have to win nationally by 7-8 minimum.
    The current RCP average is Clinton by 7.2 and she's gradually widening.
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  19. 10-19-16 10:44 AM #54
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by DrunkHorseplayer View Post
    The current RCP average is Clinton by 7.2 and she's gradually widening.
    Yeah. That's why it is certainly possible. 7-8 win for 370+ is bare minimum. More likely, she'd need to win by 9-10 or more.
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  20. 10-20-16 12:18 PM #55
    No coincidences
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    You're probably safe, but something tells me you're going to be sweating this out until the very end - not exactly what you want out of a -210 bet.

    I could see her reaching 390 TBH.
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  21. 10-20-16 12:31 PM #56
    TPowell
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    You're probably safe, but something tells me you're going to be sweating this out until the very end - not exactly what you want out of a -210 bet.

    I could see her reaching 390 TBH.
    how would she get there? Just curious what could go THAT wrong
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  22. 10-20-16 04:24 PM #57
    Mac4Lyfe
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    Quote Originally Posted by habitualwinning View Post
    People aren't just going to switch party affiliation because of one jackass candidate(Trump). The states that always go red will still go red.
    I am switching. Tired of Republicans going more right when they keep promising to come towards the middle. I know a lot of people here in Texas that feel the same way.
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  23. 10-20-16 04:26 PM #58
    TPowell
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    tightening up in Ohio. Alaska is in play for Clinton potentially as well. Georgia still around -235 or so at 5D.
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  24. 10-20-16 06:05 PM #59
    No coincidences
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    Quote Originally Posted by TPowell View Post
    how would she get there? Just curious what could go THAT wrong
    Are you serious?
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  25. 10-20-16 06:18 PM #60
    TPowell
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    Are you serious?
    yeah, 392 would be EVERY state REMOTELY in discussion (Alaska, Missouri, Georgia, Utah)
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  26. 10-20-16 06:22 PM #61
    stealthyburrito
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    Been hearing that Evan McMullin could secure the electoral votes for Utah. He has a sizable following in Idaho but not enough to wrest away control from trump.

    Ultimately, I now doubt Hill takes Utah.
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  27. 10-20-16 06:25 PM #62
    TPowell
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    Quote Originally Posted by stealthyburrito View Post
    Been hearing that Evan McMullin could secure the electoral votes for Utah. He has a sizable following in Idaho but not enough to wrest away control from trump.

    Ultimately, I now doubt Hill takes Utah.
    Yeah, as long as Clinton doesn't take Utah, I'm fine with it. I just can't see her winning it
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  28. 10-20-16 07:04 PM #63
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by TPowell View Post
    Yeah, as long as Clinton doesn't take Utah, I'm fine with it. I just can't see her winning it
    McMullen will probably win Utah. All the momentum growing. Will be fitting. Good for him if he does.
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  29. 10-20-16 07:05 PM #64
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    Clinton could get 400 votes. She is scary good.
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  30. 10-20-16 07:08 PM #65
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post
    Clinton could get 400 votes. She is scary good.
    Only if she wins Texas, then yes.
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  31. 10-20-16 07:10 PM #66
    TPowell
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    Line dropped to -245 after last night for anybody that was tempted at -280
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  32. 10-20-16 07:10 PM #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    McMullen will probably win Utah. All the momentum growing. Will be fitting. Good for him if he does.
    He could be the first since Wallace in '68 to get electoral votes. Can't believe it's been that long since a 3rd party won a state. Surprised Perot didn't considering he got close to 20% of the popular vote in '92.
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  33. 10-20-16 07:52 PM #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by stealthyburrito View Post
    He could be the first since Wallace in '68 to get electoral votes. Can't believe it's been that long since a 3rd party won a state. Surprised Perot didn't considering he got close to 20% of the popular vote in '92.
    Been impressed with McMullin from the little I've heard him interviewed.
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  34. 10-23-16 01:20 AM #69
    TPowell
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    Line is back up to -290 and Ohio looks like a real toss up now according to the line
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  35. 10-23-16 01:24 AM #70
    chico2663
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    Quote Originally Posted by habitualwinning View Post
    People aren't just going to switch party affiliation because of one jackass candidate(Trump). The states that always go red will still go red. This bet is an absolute lock if there even is such a thing in gambling. The Republicans(Trump) will still win the Republican states, Utah, Georgia, Arizona, Texas, Tennessee, all of the plains states etc. She might very well blow him out by winning all of the rust belt swing states and Florida but she's not going to run the map like Reagan did in 1984. Somewhere in the 300-340 range is much much more realistic if she were to win big. Obama was a lock against McCain and Romney and didn't even get close to the 370 mark. Hillary is not better than Obama.
    there were a lot of people in ohio that switched from republican party to vote for barack in primary against hillary. Problem is they didn't forsee that he would win. Just as certain people especially hispanics in neveada. It is going to be a bloodbath. Hopefully hillary doesn't get bog downed like obama did on health care
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