Economy : Another Bust before years end ?

[StackinGreen]

How does the wealth disparity not continue to increase? Huge debt, no real efficiency or productive economy, as Russian Rocket says --- and the future is a group of kids in huge debt already who have to keep paying for the unproductive aged? And those aged won't leave their jobs to open up jobs for the younger generations?

Of course the chamber of commerce doesn't like it when a guy like Trump (who is right) says that his policies will create incentives to bring back jobs to America. Why don't they like it? They make millions off cheap labor from other places, and get the first crack at free cash, thus when they spend no inflationary angle has hit them, but it crushes the little guy once it has spread in the system. Then they can re-negotiate debt, buy back stock ... what's the point of a country if the only objective is to have infinite economic growth (and that's not possible)? By definition you have to sellout your own countrymen, and even in doing that, it's not even possible.

Of course we will pay more for goods, but that's better than having a country where 40+% of the stroke dicks are unemployed and have nothing to look forward to. At that point we'll be a glorified India or S. American country.

This is why I'm not a libertarian anymore. There is no such thing as "free trade" when it comes down to it, and the logical end of their economic arguments are a ONE WORLD SYSTEM ... which destroys nations and their identity as well as sovereignty.

[Russian Rocket]

First paragraph homeboyeee:


http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/09/whole...by-census.html

Yeah, but the US productivity unexpectedly drops for a third-straight quarter! Also look at the dollar today...it's down half a percent Ask yourself, why on the day like today when wholesale inventories increased by 0.3 percent after having been initially estimated as unchanged, the dollar goes down?
Markets look like they’re fine. But underneath the surface, most stocks are not doing well. Most stocks around the world are down. Most stocks in the United States are down. In 2015, when the market averages were flat, twice as many stocks were down on the New York stock exchange as were up. And in the last nine months, earnings are down in the United States. A recession is starting, it is already in place. But if you look at the averages and the bond market, they still go up.That’s because all the central banks are running their printing presses as fast as they can, and Brexit means they’ll run them even faster.

We had a problem in 2008 because of too much debt, domestically and worldwide. Now the debt levels are staggering compared to 2008. Some countries have up to five times as much debt as they had eight years ago. And the dangers now are even larger than 2008.

[grease lightnin]

Yeah, but the US productivity unexpectedly drops for a third-straight quarter!

I believe the is a hangover from reduced spending from mining and energy firms, and multinationals as a result of the commodities markets and a strong dollar.

Recent surveys suggest businesses planned to pick up spending in the 2nd half of the year vs. the first half.

Also look at the dollar today...it's down half a percent Ask yourself, why on the day like today when wholesale inventories increased by 0.3 percent after having been initially estimated as unchanged, the dollar goes down?
Markets look like they’re fine. But underneath the surface, most stocks are not doing well. Most stocks around the world are down. Most stocks in the United States are down. In 2015, when the market averages were flat, twice as many stocks were down on the New York stock exchange as were up. And in the last nine months, earnings are down in the United States. A recession is starting, it is already in place. But if you look at the averages and the bond market, they still go up.That’s because all the central banks are running their printing presses as fast as they can, and Brexit means they’ll run them even faster.

We had a problem in 2008 because of too much debt, domestically and worldwide. Now the debt levels are staggering compared to 2008. Some countries have up to five times as much debt as they had eight years ago. And the dangers now are even larger than 2008.

I am not wearing rose colored glasses, I realize things aren't perfect.

The reason for my post is that I told you last week I thought 2nd qtr gdp would be revised up.

I did want to address your comparison of global debt in 2008 vs. global debt now. Much of the increased debt load has come from China and the EM. This is a drag on the global economy but ai disagree that there is more risk in the system than in 2008. Firstly because of how much better US bank balance sheets look, but secondly because much of the debt in China and the EM work much differently as it is not as subject to speculation and contaigion like the situation we had in 2008. The vast majority of the EM debt is not securitized, as well as China, and the Chinese govt will step in any time a bank or a company is in trouble. This equals slower growth, but not contagion.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-22/the-world-s-debt-is-alarmingly-high-but-is-it-contagious

[Russian Rocket]

I believe the is a hangover from reduced spending from mining and energy firms, and multinationals as a result of the commodities markets and a strong dollar.

Recent surveys suggest businesses planned to pick up spending in the 2nd half of the year vs. the first half.




I am not wearing rose colored glasses, I realize things aren't perfect.

The reason for my post is that I told you last week I thought 2nd qtr gdp would be revised up.

I did want to address your comparison of global debt in 2008 vs. global debt now. Much of the increased debt load has come from China and the EM. This is a drag on the global economy but ai disagree that there is more risk in the system than in 2008. Firstly because of how much better US bank balance sheets look, but secondly because much of the debt in China and the EM work much differently as it is not as subject to speculation and contaigion like the situation we had in 2008. The vast majority of the EM debt is not securitized, as well as China, and the Chinese govt will step in any time a bank or a company is in trouble. This equals slower growth, but not contagion.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...-it-contagious

Yeah when I was talking about banking system, I was referring to the entire world banking system as a whole.
There is no denying that the US banks are a lot safer, than they were back in '08...hell, most US banks stocks are trading below what they would fetch if they were liquidated right now.
The amount of debt is not going anywhere though, regardless of how safe the banking system might look.
If you look at the last few bubbles, the Federal Reserve at least had the ability to drop rates from 6% or 5% down to zero. Now it has virtually no room left to maneuver.
The Fed doesn’t know what it’s doing- They are basically experimenting as they go right now. They just decided to print more money, drive interest rates to zero, and see what happens.

In the 1920s, America had to raise interest rates because of the debt situation in Europe after WWI. The US stock market went through the roof because all the money going from Europe to the US Stocks became so overpriced because all that money kept flowing in one direction. Then all of a sudden out of nowhere the bubble burst. The Great Depression came next.

Every situation is different, and you can’t draw exact parallels between different eras - But history rhymes if it doesn’t necessarily repeat.

[brooks85]

I believe the is a hangover from reduced spending from mining and energy firms, and multinationals as a result of the commodities markets and a strong dollar.

Recent surveys suggest businesses planned to pick up spending in the 2nd half of the year vs. the first half.




I am not wearing rose colored glasses, I realize things aren't perfect.

The reason for my post is that I told you last week I thought 2nd qtr gdp would be revised up.

I did want to address your comparison of global debt in 2008 vs. global debt now. Much of the increased debt load has come from China and the EM. This is a drag on the global economy but ai disagree that there is more risk in the system than in 2008. Firstly because of how much better US bank balance sheets look, but secondly because much of the debt in China and the EM work much differently as it is not as subject to speculation and contaigion like the situation we had in 2008. The vast majority of the EM debt is not securitized, as well as China, and the Chinese govt will step in any time a bank or a company is in trouble. This equals slower growth, but not contagion.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...-it-contagious

lol then tell him your solution to American's real debt problem we talked about. Don't worry if you don't remember your answer, I do. It is was too hilariously childish to forget.

[grease lightnin]

lol then tell him your solution to American's real debt problem we talked about. Don't worry if you don't remember your answer, I do. It is was too hilariously childish to forget.

I believe the comment brooks is referring to is when I said that the US debt is not an un-solvable problem. After the sequester (automatic spending cuts) a few years ago, I said the debt trajectory evened out. Because it did. Does it look like a problem that is unlikely to be solved? It sure does. But it is not impossible to manage this debt.

[brooks85]

I believe the comment brooks is referring to is when I said that the US debt is not an un-solvable problem. After the sequester (automatic spending cuts) a few years ago, the debt trajectory evened out. Because it did. Does it look like a problem that is unlikely to be solved? It sure does. But it is not impossible to manage this debt.

nope, I was referring to your resolution to the problem; hope... lol cute like a child and obama supporters, hey who did you vote for again?... lol


also, the debt trajectory is garbage information and not even accurate. Very similiar to employment data obama likes to quote. Sorry to burst your bubble but I specifically told you about America's real problem; unfunded liabilities. Nothing about it is going down nor would it matter now if it did. Way past too late but good luck with that hope! Bottle it up and sell it!

[grease lightnin]

Yeah when I was talking about banking system, I was referring to the entire world banking system as a whole.
There is no denying that the US banks are a lot safer, than they were back in '08...hell, most US banks stocks are trading below what they would fetch if they were liquidated right now.
The amount of debt is not going anywhere though, regardless of how safe the banking system might look.
If you look at the last few bubbles, the Federal Reserve at least had the ability to drop rates from 6% or 5% down to zero. Now it has virtually no room left to maneuver.
The Fed doesn’t know what it’s doing- They are basically experimenting as they go right now. They just decided to print more money, drive interest rates to zero, and see what happens.

In the 1920s, America had to raise interest rates because of the debt situation in Europe after WWI. The US stock market went through the roof because all the money going from Europe to the US Stocks became so overpriced because all that money kept flowing in one direction. Then all of a sudden out of nowhere the bubble burst. The Great Depression came next.

Every situation is different, and you can’t draw exact parallels between different eras - But history rhymes if it doesn’t necessarily repeat.

Although "The amount of debt is not going anywhere though, regardless of how safe the banking system might look." is an unquantifiable statement, I agree with most of what you said.

The Fed has considerably less ammunition right now than they did in 2008. I think they should have begun raising rates in the 1st quarter of 2015 when they had the chance before China and your boy Putin caused all the volatility.

Again, I don't think global economic prosepcts are great or even good, but I am not predicting a depression either.

[grease lightnin]

nope, I was referring to your resolution to the problem; hope... lol

I do choose to believe in people and their ability to progress. You call me a child for this, but it takes a much bigger man to believe in people and put effort forth to have a positive outlook on life and what the future holds. Try to look on the brighter side of things, brooks. I don't expect you to apply that thought to your posting at SBR, but I hope you take that and apply it to your actual life. It will help you tremendously in your success, or lack thereof.

[brooks85]

I do choose to believe in people and their ability to progress. You call me a child for this, but takes a much bigger man to believe in people and put effort forth to have a positive outlook. Try to look in the brighter side if things, brooks. I don't expect you to apply that thought to your posting at SBR, but I hope you take that and apply it to your actual life. It will help you tremendously in your success, or lack thereof.

yes, using hope instead of numbers and logic would make you childish. Also, I do believe in people which is exactly why I know what is going to happen because we are people. Just open a history book and look at Rome. That is what believing in the people is going to get you so you should believe in people like you say you do. Instead you are believing in some idea that isn't natural.

The only way the problem will be fixed is the same way every other group of people have fixed it throughout history.



The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.

-I shouldn't have to tell you who said this

[grease lightnin]

yes, using hope instead of numbers and logic would make you childish.

I have presented so many numbers, charts, and datapoints to back up my arguments. You have given nothing to back up yours but insults.

Also, I do believe in people which is exactly why I know what is going to happen because we are people. Just open a history book and look at Rome. That is what believing in the people is going to get you so you should believe in people like you say you do. Instead you are believing in some idea that isn't natural.

Brooks, would you say our standard of living today is better, or worse than Roman times?

[brooks85]

overall yes thanks to medical care but they had much better diet and dental. Random question though lol

I have presented so many numbers, charts, and datapoints to back up my arguments. You have given nothing to back up yours but insults.




Brooks, would you say our standard of living today is better, or worse than Roman times?

no you haven't nor did you give a single one to address the real debt issue. Stop lying, it is pathetic. You're only hurting your kid's future by pretending everything will be ok when history says otherwise.

Also, think our problem is bad? Look at Europe's real debt issue... no wonder they are pushing the financial ponzi scheme known as Climate change. Aside from them admitting it already.

[grease lightnin]

overall yes thanks to medical care but they had much better diet and dental. Random question though lol

Did you get the point?

no you haven't nor did you give a single one to address the real debt issue. Stop lying, it is pathetic. You're only hurting your kid's future by pretending everything will be ok when history says otherwise.

Brooks every single time you question me I cite a reputable source. Here is an article from July that quotes Fitch as saying that the fiscal situation is manageable.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fitch-growth-politics-key-us-164600810.html

[brooks85]

Did you get the point? no because you didn't make one. Feel free to try again.





Brooks every single time you question me I cite a reputable source. Here is an article from July that quotes Fitch as saying that the fiscal situation is manageable.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fitch-...164600810.html

lol a fitch rating report... you poor thing. Also, again, that is not addressing our real debt problem. Most importantly, you shouldn't believe analyst reports, they are worth toilet paper. History is what you need, not hope.

[grease lightnin]

no because you didn't make one. Feel free to try again.

lol a fitch rating report... you poor thing. Also, again, that is not addressing our real debt problem. Most importantly, you shouldn't believe analyst reports, they are worth toilet paper. History is what you need, not hope.

[rkelly110]

overall yes thanks to medical care but they had much better diet and dental. Random question though lol




no you haven't nor did you give a single one to address the real debt issue. Stop lying, it is pathetic. You're only hurting your kid's future by pretending everything will be ok when history says otherwise.

Also, think our problem is bad? Look at Europe's real debt issue... no wonder they are pushing the financial ponzi scheme known as Climate change. Aside from them admitting it already.

OK Mr. math and logic (which no one has ever seen), explain how our real debt issue can be resolved by cutting taxes?

Here's a math problem for ya. You have a set amount of bills per month that equal $1k. You bring home $1k.
Your employer cuts your pay because you fuk off too much, to $900. You are in the hole $100 each month.
How long will it take to be $1k in the hole?

That was a hard one, right? Now apply that simple logic to our debt.

[brooks85]

OK Mr. math and logic (which no one has ever seen), explain how our real debt issue can be resolved by cutting taxes?

Here's a math problem for ya. You have a set amount of bills per month that equal $1k. You bring home $1k.
Your employer cuts your pay because you fuk off too much, to $900. You are in the hole $100 each month.
How long will it take to be $1k in the hole?

That was a hard one, right? Now apply that simple logic to our debt.

lol what in the world would make you think you could even understand considering you don't even know the three basic economic questions or how to answer them?



I enjoy your scenarios involving money like the time you tried to lay out the cost for a family to buy groceries and you were not even close. Again, you're not fooling anyone.

[jjgold]

A couple cannot live on 75k a year anymore with 1 kid..basically welfare

[brooks85]

lol what in the world would make you think you could even understand considering you don't even know the three basic economic questions or how to answer them?



I enjoy your scenarios involving money like the time you tried to lay out the cost for a family to buy groceries and you were not even close. Again, you're not fooling anyone.

even rkelly can't deny it

[No coincidences]

A couple cannot live on 75k a year anymore with 1 kid..basically welfare

Add up their "entertainment" expenses (cell phone, Internet, cable/dish, etc.) and get back to me on that. These are not necessities.