1. 07-23-16 01:31 PM #36
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by RavensFan2k3 View Post
    I may tail you on that one. How do you feel about Pittsburgh's Tyler Glasnow?

    Also like Arizona
    I have Glasnow above average, thought he was pulled prematurely in his first start after allowing just his third hit of the game in the sixth innings and then his ERA took the hit when the bullpen blew up. But Nola looks like he is back based on his first start after the long rest and this line is too close to model line.
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  2. 07-23-16 01:34 PM #37
    pilebuck13
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    Lt I'm sure you have Sampson graded extremely poor....Robbie Ray a prize not so much slight edge to home team here?
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  3. 07-23-16 01:45 PM #38
    juicername
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    Glad to see you're on the Snakes
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  4. 07-23-16 01:47 PM #39
    Jhanderx
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    I very LIKe Thanks LT PRofits
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  5. 07-23-16 01:52 PM #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by pilebuck13 View Post
    Lt I'm sure you have Sampson graded extremely poor....Robbie Ray a prize not so much slight edge to home team here?
    Did you miss my D-Backs addition? And I have Arizona favored considerably at 59% (-144), I passed early because of the extreme variance. I then bit when the line rose while still leaving room to be +EV according to the model, which is one of my favorite situations.

    And model likes Ray, he has a fine 3.65 xFIP that is considerably better than his ERA. It helps that he is striking out 10.52 guys per nine innings, which is eighth best in the Major Leagues.
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  6. 07-23-16 01:54 PM #41
    pilebuck13
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Did you miss my D-Backs addition? And I have Arizona favored considerably at 59% (-144), I passed early because of the extreme variance. I then bit when the line rose while still leaving room to be +EV according to the model, which is one of my favorite situations.

    And model likes Ray, he has a fine 3.65 xFIP that is considerably better than his ERA. It helps that he is striking out 10.52 guys per nine innings, which is eighth best in the Major Leagues.
    Thanks for input on that good luck brother
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  7. 07-23-16 02:21 PM #42
    funnyb25
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    The one time all season we aren't on Nola...Phils gunna win...
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  8. 07-23-16 02:32 PM #43
    funnyb25
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    LT, shed some light if you will on the Royals over...Hamels been lights out on the road all season...Ventura been garbage everywhere, but with the over being a play and Hamels being solid how is Texas not a play? Odds are in your play range
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  9. 07-23-16 02:51 PM #44
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    MLB Addition at 4:05 ET!

    9 MLB Plays Saturday

    Mariners +127 (Heritage)
    Giants -107 (DSI)
    Diamondbacks -124 (Bookmaker)
    Brewers +152 (Heritage)
    Tigers +162 (Heritage)
    Dodgers -116 (Heritage)
    Rangers / Royals OVER 8 -110 (Heritage)
    Rangers / Royals OVER 4.5 -115 (5 innings) (Heritage)
    Rays -101 (Heritage)
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  10. 07-23-16 03:14 PM #45
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    1 MLB 5-Inning Addition

    10 MLB Plays Saturday

    Mariners +127 (Heritage)
    Giants -107 (DSI)
    Diamondbacks -124 (Bookmaker)
    Diamondbacks -125 (5 innings) (5 Dimes)
    Brewers +152 (Heritage)
    Tigers +162 (Heritage)
    Dodgers -116 (Heritage)
    Rangers / Royals OVER 8 -110 (Heritage)
    Rangers / Royals OVER 4.5 -115 (5 innings) (Heritage)
    Rays -101 (Heritage)
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  11. 07-23-16 03:15 PM #46
    funnyb25
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    LT drinking
    Points Awarded:

    aramakilx gave funnyb25 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.

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  12. 07-23-16 03:15 PM #47
    funnyb25
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    My line is -120 first 5....
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  13. 07-23-16 03:33 PM #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by funnyb25 View Post
    LT, shed some light if you will on the Royals over...Hamels been lights out on the road all season...Ventura been garbage everywhere, but with the over being a play and Hamels being solid how is Texas not a play? Odds are in your play range
    In the end model has Texas 56% (-127). Technically, that would require -115 for consideration, but even beyond that, I don't like RLM while seeing 74% on Hamels. I do like Texas offense to tee off on Ventura though, ultimately model has 9.4 game total and 5.1 FF. Both starters have worse 5-inning ratings than overall ratings (Hamels slightly so).
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  14. 07-23-16 03:34 PM #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by funnyb25 View Post
    My line is -120 first 5....
    That is steep for 4.5, -115 is my drop-dead max.
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  15. 07-23-16 03:39 PM #50
    funnyb25
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    That is steep for 4.5, -115 is my drop-dead max.
    Sorry, i wasn't clear...when i said my first 5 is -120..i was referring to dbacks ml 1st 5
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  16. 07-23-16 03:40 PM #51
    JayDr3am
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    6 MLB Plays Saturday

    Mariners +127 (Heritage)
    Brewers +152 (Heritage)
    Tigers +162 (Heritage)
    Dodgers -116 (Heritage)
    Rangers / Royals OVER 8 -110 (Heritage)
    Rays -101 (Heritage)


    YTD: 288-292-13, +5.84
    LT making a 2nd half surge.. i like this. most dont come back from a deficit like that. props my man
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  17. 07-23-16 04:06 PM #52
    funnyb25
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    Model doesnt account for corners 1 out in the first get nothing, thrown out at the plate in the 2nd, get nothing, corners 0 out in the 3rd get nothing...lol
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  18. 07-23-16 04:22 PM #53
    Rich Boy
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    FunnyB - How much do you bet per game?
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  19. 07-23-16 04:30 PM #54
    funnyb25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rich Boy View Post
    FunnyB - How much do you bet per game?
    1 SBR Point..you?
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  20. 07-23-16 05:04 PM #55
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    NO ACTION on Tigers, Sale scratched for White Sox
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  21. 07-23-16 05:38 PM #56
    grease lightnin
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    Thinking about hitting the brewers. You still like them at +132, LT?

    I have not been betting mlb at all, but it looks like the cubs have been much better at home and lackey has been hit pretty hard lately...
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  22. 07-23-16 06:47 PM #57
    funnyb25
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    Dbacks and Royals over gunna be 0-4
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  23. 07-23-16 07:23 PM #58
    tradeout
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    Quote Originally Posted by funnyb25 View Post
    1 SBR Point..you?
    well played
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  24. 07-23-16 07:28 PM #59
    pilebuck13
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    Quote Originally Posted by pilebuck13 View Post
    Lt I'm sure you have Sampson graded extremely poor....Robbie Ray a prize not so much slight edge to home team here?
    Should have hit reds took over in first five instead but was almost going to pull trigger but with reds bullpen and Sampson starting I was scared honestly Arizona could come back here
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  25. 07-23-16 07:38 PM #60
    funnyb25
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    Quote Originally Posted by pilebuck13 View Post
    Should have hit reds took over in first five instead but was almost going to pull trigger but with reds bullpen and Sampson starting I was scared honestly Arizona could come back here
    I should have played Reds first 5 and ML...LT doesnt have a clue...
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  26. 07-23-16 07:42 PM #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by funnyb25 View Post
    LT doesnt have a clue...
    Have you been hanging out with Brock?
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  27. 07-23-16 07:45 PM #62
    pilebuck13
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    Guy has a major clue solid handicapper he just follows his model long term he should turn profit smart if you bet every sport everyday
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  28. 07-23-16 07:49 PM #63
    funnyb25
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Have you been hanging out with Brock?
    Every time I give you shit...you step it up....LOOK FOR A HUGE SUNDAY after a few losing days in a row...wait for it...you heard it here first...TAIL EVERYTHING TOMORROW
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  29. 07-23-16 07:52 PM #64
    chabooky386
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    Quote Originally Posted by pilebuck13 View Post
    Guy has a major clue solid handicapper he just follows his model long term he should turn profit smart if you bet every sport everyday
    Lean on last game pile?
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  30. 07-23-16 08:08 PM #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by funnyb25 View Post
    Every time I give you shit...you step it up....LOOK FOR A HUGE SUNDAY after a few losing days in a row...wait for it...you heard it here first...TAIL EVERYTHING TOMORROW
    What about TODAY? Looks like 4-4 with winning or losing day coming down to Rays.
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  31. 07-23-16 09:14 PM #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by grease lightnin View Post
    Thinking about hitting the brewers. You still like them at +132, LT?

    I have not been betting mlb at all, but it looks like the cubs have been much better at home and lackey has been hit pretty hard lately...
    Well I popped it for a unit even though you didn't respond.

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  32. 07-23-16 10:12 PM #67
    Dogball
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    6 MLB Plays Saturday

    Mariners +127 (Heritage)
    Brewers +152 (Heritage)
    Tigers +162 (Heritage)
    Dodgers -116 (Heritage)
    Rangers / Royals OVER 8 -110 (Heritage)
    Rays -101 (Heritage)


    YTD: 288-292-13, +5.84
    huge day. You deserve it bro
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  33. 07-23-16 10:28 PM #68
    funnyb25
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    Big bomb by the A's
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