1. 07-01-16 11:25 AM #1
    YellowCurious
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    Was This A Stupid Bet

    I bet a baseball prop that Cleveland and Toronto would go to extra innings. I got +825 if they do go extras. I figured it was worth a shot. I've never hit one of these extra innings bets. I was wondering if this is a stupid bet. I have done several of them and have never won. But it looks real tempting. I just bet $20 on this prop though.
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  2. 07-01-16 11:35 AM #2
    funnyb25
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    It's a gamble for sure, but sometimes they hit..good luck
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  3. 07-01-16 12:01 PM #3
    Waterstpub87
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    Extra-Inning Rates, By League
    Years AL NL
    1914-1972 9.59% 9.76%
    1973-2013 8.56% 9.74%

    This is a table from Baseball times. Assuming the percentages are applicable in this case, you should have gotten +1069 or so. Based on the odds you were given, it would indicate a 10.81%. So you had roughly a -2.25% hold.

    This was not a good bet.
    Last edited by Waterstpub87; 07-01-16 at 01:07 PM.
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  4. 07-01-16 12:16 PM #4
    biggie12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Waterstpub87 View Post
    Extra-Inning Rates, By League
    Years AL NL
    1914-1972 9.59% 9.76%
    1973-2013 8.56% 9.74%

    This is a table from Baseball times. Assuming the percentages are applicable in this case, you should have gotten +1069 or so. Based on the odds you were given, it would indicate a 10.81%. So you had roughly a -3.25% hold.

    This was not a good bet.
    Great avatar pic bud
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  5. 07-01-16 12:18 PM #5
    juicername
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    Quote Originally Posted by Waterstpub87 View Post
    Extra-Inning Rates, By League
    Years AL NL
    1914-1972 9.59% 9.76%
    1973-2013 8.56% 9.74%

    This is a table from Baseball times. Assuming the percentages are applicable in this case, you should have gotten +1069 or so. Based on the odds you were given, it would indicate a 10.81%. So you had roughly a -3.25% hold.

    This was not a good bet.
    Great data, but that also takes games where there's an expected blowout winner. A game with Kershaw at -250 is obv less likely to go to extra innings. If you could filter it for games with a favorite of -130 or less it would be more interesting.
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  6. 07-01-16 01:03 PM #6
    Waterstpub87
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    Quote Originally Posted by juicername View Post
    Great data, but that also takes games where there's an expected blowout winner. A game with Kershaw at -250 is obv less likely to go to extra innings. If you could filter it for games with a favorite of -130 or less it would be more interesting.
    Certainly true. The article is below. Cleveland closed at like -120, so I don't think it would be that massive a change from the norm. The total matters as well.

    http://www.hardballtimes.com/beyond-the-ninth-inning/
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  7. 07-01-16 01:15 PM #7
    jjgold
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    nothing stupid

    In gambling anything possible
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  8. 07-01-16 03:00 PM #8
    Darkside Magick
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    Not stupid after all...nice cash!
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  9. 07-01-16 03:39 PM #9
    Waterstpub87
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    Nice Hit!. Thought you meant the game yesterday.
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  10. 07-01-16 03:42 PM #10
    actiondan
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    Booya
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  11. 07-01-16 03:55 PM #11
    adila1401
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  12. 07-01-16 06:45 PM #12
    YellowCurious
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    I think I may take a shot again with this prop on one of the night games too
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