how many of you are profitable long term?

[iceman02]

im definitely in red over the long term thinking about quitting. How you guys doing?

[Avenger_deux]

Nobody ever wins long term. Nobody.

[jjgold]

98% in red long term

Everyone gets lucky and has runs and possibly can win for a year or two

[Smoke]

Nobody ever wins long term. Nobody.

Billy Walters

[jjgold]

Billy Walters

[DOM_Toretto]

Overall in the black

NCAA Hoops big time in the black

NBA in the black but barely
NFL in the red
NCAA Football in the red

[frogsrangers]

No one

I was profitable in NCAA Hoops this past year but not in NCAA Football

[lakerboy]

-110. Play those and you can't survive.

[KVB]

98% in red long term

Everyone gets lucky and has runs and possibly can win for a year or two

There's a reason for this and those who understand it and can stay disciplined stand a much better chance of long term profit, much better.

But before ever getting to that point of winning, bettors must first learn to stop engaging in all the activities associated with losing. And before ever getting to that point, bettors must identifiy what those activities are and how to avoid them.

But before that...

I could keep going backwards right back to the behaviors of our ancestors and how our culture inlfuences thoughts and behavior.

Needless to say, it's a long road full of obstacles ahead for the vast majority and, unfortunately, much of SBR I read doesn't help a bettor get there. Some of it can actually hurt...lol.

Admittedly, I don't spend much time in sub forums though. The discussions I do see are often full of subjective analysis, and some posters are very good, even over the long haul, but that analysis by itself can be fraught with long term issues.

If you are the type of bettor that looks at a line and determines whether or not it has "value" without actually calculating a valid "fair" price of that issue and defining "value" then you are not likely to win over the long haul. Even when you can do this, there are many pitfalls.

The system is designed for the bettor to fail and often exploits the bettor's vulnerabilities, both psychological and emotional, to achieve its end. That said, once this is understood, you can predict the markets movements in both micro and macro ways. Once this is understood, there is a certain rinse and repeat, but certain risks never go away.

Little can be done until you create your own valid line or price and compare it to the offered numbers. Picking winners, unfortunately, is not enough as most of the markets will grind bettors out over the long haul.

Good Luck.

[jjgold]

the only way you can win is bet off market numbers and you do not need to know on thing about stats and players

Learn how to read a line creen

[KVB]

the only way you can win is bet off market numbers and you do not need to know on thing about stats and players

Learn how to read a line creen

I tend to agree about the players, they come and go.

The market signals are often misleading because sharp books know what bettors are looking for, but if you create your own valid line, you can weed many of these out.

In this instance, creating his own line can pull a market reader off of a losing bet.

[GunShard]

Recently in the green in 2016. Been mostly in the red between 2009 to 2015.
My Arizona Cardinals winning their division bet at +700 and Jaguars under 5.5 regular season wins bet at +135 got me in the green at the start of this year.
I noticed betting no vig lines +100 or greater will help me make profit better.

[LordVodka]

Down. Very few win at gambling. Quit now and you will have more money in the future.

[JMon]

If it weren't for MLB or NBA, I would be selling sperm and blood. Not too reload, but rather for my other addictive behaviors. I already drink too many Mickey's and Busch. This would in divorce. And ultimately I would lose more than gambling ever cost me. Thank god I haven't had to reload in years.

[QuantumLeap]

Out of the last 13 years of gambling I broke even one year. All the rest have been in the red.

When I use up my bankroll for the season I quit and wait until the fall for football so I'm OK with it. I have a hell of a lot of fun with what little money I bet.

[jjgold]

There's got to be a way to win somebody post it

[tatddy]

Figure out where your greatest edge and exploit it as much as possible. Figure out where you're falling behind and just give it up all together (or rethink/compute what you do).

I haven't been doing this for very long and this is the first year where I finally had the "discipline" to give up the sports that weren't profitable. Gotta drop the ego and just realize that the books are better than you sometimes...at least I had to.

[beefcake]

If Leceister City win the EPL then over the last five years I will be in the black!!😀

[The Kraken]

If you factor in all the money I have sitting in books to avoid paying taxes, I'm up, even after BI's

[iceman02]

If you factor in all the money I have sitting in books to avoid paying taxes, I'm up, even after BI's

How much $ do u have sitting on books?

[jjgold]

Tremendous post by unknown sharp SBR poster

Figure out where your greatest edge and exploit it as much as possible. Figure out where you're falling behind and just give it up all together (or rethink/compute what you do).

I haven't been doing this for very long and this is the first year where I finally had the "discipline" to give up the sports that weren't profitable. Gotta drop the ego and just realize that the books are better than you sometimes...at least I had to.

[phillybadboy]

down huge

[BuckyOne]

There's a reason for this and those who understand it and can stay disciplined stand a much better chance of long term profit, much better.









If you are the type of bettor that looks at a line and determines whether or not it has "value" without actually calculating a valid "fair" price of that issue and defining "value" then you are not likely to win over the long haul. Even when you can do this, there are many pitfalls.

Little can be done until you create your own valid line or price and compare it to the offered numbers. Picking winners, unfortunately, is not enough as most of the markets will grind bettors out over the long haul.

Good Luck.

I like everything you said but especially agree with the importance of scientific value. That being said - finding and defining value takes a lot of work. Value can be built in positions with timing. There are so many more technical tools at our disposal now than 20 years ago.

[Avenger_deux]

There's got to be a way to win somebody post it

jj, I'll tell you, but only if you PM me.

[ace7550]

There's got to be a way to win somebody post it

I am not a long term SBR member, but I have figured a way to win in the long term.
I lost for many years trying different techniques and systems. It wasn't until I realized that I wasn't playing against the books that I started consistently winning. The books are essentially just taking a fee for placing a bet against another gambler. To use an analogy, the books are basically just a rake at a poker cash game.
When I look at a game I think, "how is the average guy going to bet this." I don't think about who is pitching and I don't think about who is hurt or can this QB play in cold weather. I try and predict how the line will move by asking two simple questions: What is the public perception of this game? And what outcome will draw the best ratings for the league and for television. Then I often hedge.
If you're not hedging often you're already in trouble. When the line moves in my favor I often place a second bet that guarantees I will make money on my investment. No matter the outcome of the game.
Play at multiple sites. This gives you the opportunity to shop for lines. If you only have deposits at one or two sites you are definitely not getting the best price on every wager you make. This is one of the great things about SBR. I can look at lines from 10 different sites at the same time. I typically have money in 7 or 8 sites. This helps to assure I am getting the best price possible. The difference between +180 and +190 is huge in the long run.
I spend hours every day looking at lines and waiting for something I can exploit.
Hope this helps. Good luck to everyone.

[Avenger_deux]

So ace, what happens when you predict the wrong line movement? When it moves opposite of what you wanted? Do you lose money?

BTW: I hedge a lot also. In-game betting is the best thing ever. But the books have caught on, and now they don't offer in-game for the entire game, they take it off the boards when it suits them.

I think hedging in-game wagers and deposit bonuses are the only way to win long term.

I can play a really long time on a small amount of money but eventually I'll break close to even and the only think I won is a bunch of points. Cash them out and buy a Big Mac. Seriously, that's about it.

I've gotten so good at in-game betting, I'm pretty sure I can move lines with my bets, I swear it happens all the time.

[Ralphie Halves]

I am, and I already told you how.

[Slipknot26]

I'm up overall but bet larger unit size on what i know best , What you know you have a better percentage of hitting . Why would you not ?
Basketball is mine , so bet larger $100 whereas others , it's $50 or smaller at a good payday because I know I struggle with those sports .
Hockey , golf long shots , soccer , etc
NFL, I'll pass , dont trust it one bit , lot of outcomes makes absolutely no sense . So quit even trying to cap it , no rhyme or reason when most games are done .
CBB 136-112 +1367
NFL 0-1 -.55 / -55
NHL 22-26 -5.6 /-280
Soccer 0-1 -1.25 / -63
NBA 14-9 +4.10 / +410
MLB 2-6-1 -4.26 -426..I'll make money overall by seasons end with bases just a horrible start
Golf 0-6 -2.0 -190 , long shot bets
Overall up overall using bet more on sports I know , bet less on sports I know I'll struggle with.
If I could lay off the ones I suck at , it would be all good.
Yes , I keep up with every bet , how do you get better if you have no clue where you went wrong?
But you must adjust your unit size depending on what sport you're best at capping, or you'll lose overall IMO .
As you see basketball up $1800ish but others , I am down but bet smaller since I know percentage is I lose .
Easy to see which sport I need to stop betting on as well by tracking every bet I make .

[ace7550]

So ace, what happens when you predict the wrong line movement? When it moves opposite of what you wanted? Do you lose money?

BTW: I hedge a lot also. In-game betting is the best thing ever. But the books have caught on, and now they don't offer in-game for the entire game, they take it off the boards when it suits them.

I think hedging in-game wagers and deposit bonuses are the only way to win long term.

I can play a really long time on a small amount of money but eventually I'll break close to even and the only think I won is a bunch of points. Cash them out and buy a Big Mac. Seriously, that's about it.

I've gotten so good at in-game betting, I'm pretty sure I can move lines with my bets, I swear it happens all the time.

Sure, I lose on individual bets every day. Nobody gets it right everytime. I usually try and place my wagers early. Mostly on MLB because of the dime lines. I wait for the lines to move in my favor. If they don't I just keep waiting. If they never do I will oftentimes in-game hedge like you do.
You are absolutely right that hedging and bonuses are the only way to win long term. Shopping for lines is very important too.

You may already know this one but I have a freeplay tip too. Freeplay is actually worth a little more than 50% cash. The reason is that you can bet it on an underdog. Every site has rules on what odds you can bet freeplay on. For many sites you can't bet it on anything past -200/+200. Some sites are so stingy they only offer -200/+140. Here's how the math works...
If you bet $500 FP on a -200 you only end up with $250 cash. If you bet $500 FP on a +200 you end up with $1,000 cash. Of course the underdog bet needs to be hedged.
Example: Cubs are playing the lowly Phillies. You bet $500 FP on the Phils at +200 to win $1,000. After line shopping you are able to bet the cubs $675 real cash at -210 to win $321.43. If the Phil's win your $500 FP has turned into $325 real cash. If the cubs win your $500 FP has turned into $321.43 real cash.
Good Luck Avenger!

[daneblazer]

Up in football Mostly because of NCAA
way up in March madness
up in baseball but don't bet it that much


its just entertainment. It's a game we can play

[BuckyOne]

I am not a long term SBR member, but I have figured a way to win in the long term.
I lost for many years trying different techniques and systems. It wasn't until I realized that I wasn't playing against the books that I started consistently winning. The books are essentially just taking a fee for placing a bet against another gambler. To use an analogy, the books are basically just a rake at a poker cash game.
When I look at a game I think, "how is the average guy going to bet this." I don't think about who is pitching and I don't think about who is hurt or can this QB play in cold weather. I try and predict how the line will move by asking two simple questions: What is the public perception of this game? And what outcome will draw the best ratings for the league and for television. Then I often hedge.
If you're not hedging often you're already in trouble. When the line moves in my favor I often place a second bet that guarantees I will make money on my investment. No matter the outcome of the game.
Play at multiple sites. This gives you the opportunity to shop for lines. If you only have deposits at one or two sites you are definitely not getting the best price on every wager you make. This is one of the great things about SBR. I can look at lines from 10 different sites at the same time. I typically have money in 7 or 8 sites. This helps to assure I am getting the best price possible. The difference between +180 and +190 is huge in the long run.
I spend hours every day looking at lines and waiting for something I can exploit.
Hope this helps. Good luck to everyone.

That's a very hard way to make an easy living. It is the way to play when you HAVE to win not just want to win. Now that you have told people how to win they will tell you that what you do is a tremendous amount of work for a modest gain. Well, you are not lucky when you win - you are good - that's the big difference.

[eidolon]

NBA black
NFL even
MLB red

college, bowling, soccer, darts......I have no clue, probably in the red.

[ace7550]

That's a very hard way to make an easy living. It is the way to play when you HAVE to win not just want to win. Now that you have told people how to win they will tell you that what you do is a tremendous amount of work for a modest gain. Well, you are not lucky when you win - you are good - that's the big difference.

It is a lot of work. It's basically a job at this point. But I work from home and don't have a boss. I have no complaints.

[Gaze73]

I win huge with in-play soccer, ice hockey and basketball. Just look at the in-game stats, apply logic, and cash.

[GunShard]

Spot betting, understanding the winning math and money management helps me become one of the sharps and away from the public.
The public bets every day, every sport, ignores the percentages and lacks money management.