1. #1
    LT Profits
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    MLB - Sunday, 4/10/16

    3 MLB Plays Sunday

    Cardinals / Braves OVER 7.5 +105 (Bookmaker)
    Indians / White Sox UNDER 8 -120 (Bookmaker)
    Dodgers +119 (Heritage)


    YTD: 12-9, +5.71

  2. #2
    Nateboogy
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    Under 7.5 even money on white sox too far off?

  3. #3
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nateboogy View Post
    Under 7.5 even money on white sox too far off?
    That is fine at +100

  4. #4
    LT Profits
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    60%ers:

    Mets 67% (-203)
    St. Louis 65% (-186)
    Washington 61% (-156)
    Houston 61% (-156)
    Seattle 64% (-178)
    Cubs 65% (-186)
    Points Awarded:

    Spartak gave LT Profits 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  5. #5
    Rigbone
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    Any thoughts on taking the Phillies at such a high price? Looks like some value with the Mets at -203 on the model. Thanks for all the hard work LT.

  6. #6
    afgballer56
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    what you think abt blue jays today

  7. #7
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rigbone View Post
    Any thoughts on taking the Phillies at such a high price? Looks like some value with the Mets at -203 on the model. Thanks for all the hard work LT.
    A little bit of value on Phils but I am passing as of now.

  8. #8
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by afgballer56 View Post
    what you think abt blue jays today
    Model loves Red Sox, only has Jays at 55% (-122). I just don't like that line opened close to model number and has since run away so much from it.

  9. #9
    NJsportsGuy732
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rigbone View Post
    Any thoughts on taking the Phillies at such a high price? Looks like some value with the Mets at -203 on the model. Thanks for all the hard work LT.
    I don't think the Mets will lose back to back games to the phils, especially with Harvey on the mound.

  10. #10
    jmac227
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    what do you think of Pirates -120 today LT?

  11. #11
    R.P. McMurphy
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    Curious LT I've seen you mention numerous times you don't like when a line opens close to your model and runs away giving your model even greater value. Have you done any tracking on results of these occasions? Personally I don't put much stock in those huge 20/40 cent line moves and have seen results both ways. I know for a good stretch last year I was noticing a -155 type fave with public hammering it going wrong way closing much cheaper and "Joe square" was cashing easy still.

  12. #12
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by jmac227 View Post
    what do you think of Pirates -120 today LT?
    Model has Pirates 57% (-133), my concern there is limited data for Melville.

  13. #13
    Meansteam
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    All good picks

  14. #14
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    A little bit of value on Phils but I am passing as of now.
    I went ahead and added them.

  15. #15
    LT Profits
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    4 MLB Additions

    7 MLB Plays Sunday

    Phillies +231 (Heritage)
    Cardinals / Braves OVER 7.5 +105 (Bookmaker)
    Indians / White Sox UNDER 8 -120 (Bookmaker)
    Indians / White Sox UNDER 4 -120 (5 innings) (Heritage)
    Rangers -103 (Heritage)

    Dodgers +119 (Heritage)
    Yankees -107 (Heritage)

  16. #16
    Winner_13
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    LT, could I ask how cone you do not play favorites of -130 or greater bUT play underdogs of greater than +130?
    Value is value no?

    Thanks LT and wish you much success

  17. #17
    aortega521
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    LT for a 2150 bank roll that I've built from 250 what would would youreally unit size be per wager as I think you've said you keep every wager the same

  18. #18
    Vinnie Paz
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    Is your Twitter username your real name, LT ?

  19. #19
    agendaman
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    verlander hasn't beat the Yankees since 2012

  20. #20
    WalkingLuckCharm
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    Always hurts tailing on plays like philli but its got to be donr

  21. #21
    Jayvegas420
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Model loves Red Sox, only has Jays at 55% (-122). I just don't like that line opened close to model number and has since run away so much from it.
    Estrada is much improved this year. His change up has added a huge advantage to his arsenal.
    He always pitches better when diono Navajo is behind the dish.


    That being said I was all over the red sox, in play after the Jays scored 2 in the 1st.

    GL LT

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  22. #22
    jgold254
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    Indians v White Sox postponed...

  23. #23
    POOLSIDE
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    Arizona at +194 isn't a play?

  24. #24
    jgold254
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    Quote Originally Posted by POOLSIDE View Post
    Arizona at +194 isn't a play?
    Against Arrieta? I'd say no sir...

  25. #25
    POOLSIDE
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    Quote Originally Posted by jgold254 View Post
    Against Arrieta? I'd say no sir...
    Eh, tons of value there. It's just a number I'm playing. What if Arizona was +300? +500? I don't care about arrieta. I know he'll probably win. But he won't always win. What percentage of the time does he lose this game? That's all I care.

  26. #26
    jgold254
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    Quote Originally Posted by POOLSIDE View Post
    Eh, tons of value there. It's just a number I'm playing. What if Arizona was +300? +500? I don't care about arrieta. I know he'll probably win. But he won't always win. What percentage of the time does he lose this game? That's all I care.
    Oh, I get what you're saying. But (arguably) the best team in baseball going with their best pitcher against Miller's 9.00ERA. I don't see "tons of value" there at all... I'd say maybe the value begins at around +210.

  27. #27
    jgold254
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    But then again... Today I'm a guy that played the under in the Braves game by pure accident. Perhaps my thoughts aren't worth much today...

  28. #28
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by POOLSIDE View Post
    Arizona at +194 isn't a play?
    Look at my post with the 60%ers, I get Cubs 65% (-186). So just a smidgeon of value at +194, not enough to get excited.

  29. #29
    LT Profits
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    Another MLB Addition

    6 MLB Plays Sunday

    Phillies +231 (Heritage)
    Cardinals / Braves OVER 7.5 +105 (Bookmaker)
    Rangers -103 (Heritage)
    Dodgers +119 (Heritage)
    Yankees -107 (Heritage)
    Yankees / Tigers UNDER 7.5 -110 (Heritage)

  30. #30
    Breadloser
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    Phillies subsidized the rest of everyone's day. How anyone could fall for that fat pig at 1.30 is amazing.
    Points Awarded:

    GreatWallofTrump gave Breadloser 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  31. #31
    jgold254
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Yankees -107 (Heritage)
    Yankees / Tigers UNDER 7.5 -110 (Heritage)
    LT, yanks game already postponed.

  32. #32
    NJsportsGuy732
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    Quote Originally Posted by jgold254 View Post
    LT, yanks game already postponed.
    It is?????

  33. #33
    POOLSIDE
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    Quote Originally Posted by jgold254 View Post
    LT, yanks game already postponed.
    So they definitely won't be scoring eight runs

  34. #34
    LT Profits
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    OK so now down to 4 plays after Postponements.

  35. #35
    jgold254
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    Quote Originally Posted by NJsportsGuy732 View Post
    It is?????
    Yessir. Following the game tweets...

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