i was just reading foxsports's week 1 nfl rundown. i can't beleive in the article, it said, "take colts -6 and the over". isn't that advocating gambling?
Week 1 NFL Rundown
Mike Tanier
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Bad news, imitators and Rundown haters: Rundown has its sexy back.
We lost our sexy at the same time that Chad Johnson lost his. During Super Bowl XLI, we stashed it in one of Prince's crates to keep it from getting soaked. His Purpleness has a surfeit of sexy, so he sent ours back to us wrapped in a London newspaper. We gave it to Brady Quinn before the draft, but he left it in that inadequately Suzy Kolber-proofed isolation chamber. Good thing, too: our sexy is too sexy for Cleveland.
After the draft, our sexy went on a sojourn. Peyton Manning took it to Saturday Night Live. Steve Smith took it on safari. Travis Henry had it for a while; we are not responsible for anything he did with it. Meanwhile, the Rundown team searched everywhere for sexy substitutes — Ray Lewis' swagger, Brett Favre's grit, Dhani Jones' bowties — but nothing did the trick.
Finally, last week, our sexy turned up in the bottom of the duffel bag in which Michael Strahan keeps all his worldly possessions. And not a moment too soon. Football season is starting! It's time for hard hits and long touchdowns, breathless finishes and last second heroics. It's time for end zone dances and unsportsmanlike conduct penalties. And it's time for FOXSports.com to provide you with Rundown, the sexiest weekly preview on this or any other internet.
You may want to have a cigarette before you continue. It's gonna be that good.
Games to watch
Saints at Colts: In Super Bowl XLI, Peyton Manning went from great quarterback to legend. But after the Colts lost several starters in the off-season, Manning looks more like the Will Smith character from "I Am Legend." Peyton is the last man on earth, or at least in Indy, now that Tarik Glenn, Cato June, Nick Harper, Jason David, and others are gone. Glenn may be the most significant loss: his retirement leaves rookie Tony Ugoh to protect Manning's blind side. The unstoppable Colts offense could be very stoppable if Manning only has a split second to get rid of the ball.
2007 NFL Preview
NFC Previews:
East | North | South | West
AFC Previews:
East | North | South | West
Analysis:
Whitlock: 10 NFL truths for 2007
Hench: Answering the burning questions
Glazer: Making predictions is a Brees
Marvez: Cowboys, 49ers contenders
Schein: Hardware for 2007
Schrager: Power rankings
NFL's modern-day dynasty redefined
Hench: What happened to parity?
Schein: NFC predictions | AFC
Menefee: Ranking all 32 teams
Glazer: Training camp wrap-up
Video: Sehorn's Division Previews
AFC East | North | South | West
NFC East | North | South | West
While few experts are talking up a Colts repeat in the wake of the Patriots spending spree, the Saints have become fashionable Super Bowl picks. We aren't climbing on that Mardi Gras float. Sure, they were fun to root for last season, their backfield is great, and Sean Payton is one of the brightest young coaches in the game. But the Saints lack depth at several positions (offensive line, linebacker), and they are counting on several players who are coming off career years in 2006. Maybe the whole team suddenly got a lot better last year. Or maybe they got a little better, then rode a wave of emotion and a last-place schedule into the playoffs. We suspect that the latter is closer to the truth.
Both offenses looked machete-sharp through most of the preseason, but the over/under is hardly stratospheric (51). Take the over and you'll be in bed before the end of the third quarter. As for the line (Colts -6), take the home team, but don't read too much into a Week 1 Colts victory. Both teams will be fun to watch this season, but fun teams don't often reach the Super Bowl.
Patriots at Jets: Time now to spice things up with a supermodel-laden drama, Tom Brady style.
As you probably know, Brady spent the off-season torn between two hotties. While ex-squeeze Bridget Moynahan carried Brady's baby, current flame Gisele Bundchen planned nuptials and publicly criticized her beau for spending too much time with Moynahan. Brady found himself surrounded by high-maintenance prima donnas with unrealistic demands for his time and attention. And that was before the Patriots traded for Randy Moss.
Brady certainly had a lot on his mind. Bundchen spent August trying on Dior and Chanel wedding dresses while finalizing guest lists. "They want to keep it small and simple," one Bundchen buddy told a tabloid. Presumably, that means Norv Turner is planning the services. Moynahan, meanwhile, moved from New York to Los Angeles to avoid paparazzi; Al Davis promptly sued her, claiming that Los Angeles is still his territory. A Bill Belichick student to the core, Brady made sure that the press didn't know the baby's due date: Moynahan was listed as "questionable" on the injury report from April through mid-August. Finally, the blessed moment came, and Brady was at Moynahan's side as she gave birth to a son. He was named John Edward Thomas Moynahan, which sounds like the Democratic presidential ticket in 2012.
At least Brady knew what to expect from Uncle Eric Mangini as a shower present. Mangini is a big fan of those "Build Your Baby's Brain" CDs. He even started pumping Mozart into Jets film sessions to get his players to focus better. The classical concepts are seeping into the team's system: they will now use an "Allegro" offense for two-minute drills but switch to a "Lento" offense when nursing a lead late in the game. Mangini hopes the Mozart therapy can help the Jets improve in a variety of areas, including the run defense, which ranked dead last in the league in DVOA last year.
Hey, if you don't like this soapy stuff, we could go back to last year, when we spent six weeks analyzing Belichick-Mangini handshakes. Mangini stunned his mentor when the Jets won their second meeting with the Patriots, a 17-14 victory in Foxboro. The master later put Mangini in his place in a 37-16 playoff beatdown. The Jets are making steady progress under Mangini, but they are still a full notch below the reigning division champs personnel-wise. Even with Richard Seymour and Rodney Harrison unavailable, the Patriots have enough bodies on defense to hold Chad Pennington and company in check. And the Patriots offense, now tricked out with Moss, Donte Stallworth, Wes Welker and others, will leave most AFC opponents in its dust.
Long story short: take the Pats, lay the points. Brady may win the Super Bowl this year. But he'll drive off in a Hyundai.
Giants at Cowboys: Tiki Barber is gone. Tom Coughlin is still in New York. Bill Parcells is gone. Terrell Owens is still in Dallas. It all seems backward. Yet things aren't always what they seem.
Eli Manning will have to do more than trade barbs with ex-teammate Tiki Barber to beat the 'Boys on Sunday. ( / Getty Images)
Barber the television announcer slammed Eli Manning's leadership ability during a preseason telecast. Maybe Tiki, the paragon of class and competitiveness, is really just a smooth-talking opportunist. Eli fired back, earning praise from Big Apple fans. Maybe the wide-eyed Southern boy has some fire in his belly. Players complained that Parcells had them acting like robots and that his schemes were vanilla. Maybe the grizzled general was really just a tired old man. Coughlin and Owens have been cool customers all season. Maybe ... nah, they're both still nuttier than cheese logs.
So while appearances can often deceive, don't be afraid to believe your eyes. The Giants really are a team reeling from retirements and defections, with a quarterback who makes critical mistakes and a coach who alienates his veterans. The Cowboys really are a mix of big names and big question marks coached by an old softie (Wade Philips) who will soon feel Owens' cleats on his lumbar region. These teams may be glamorous, but come December, it will be the Eagles and Redskins duking it out for the NFC East.
Take the Boys at home this week; wait for the Giants to prove they are a fixer-upper's nightmare before you risk money on them. Giants fans, take heart: Lloyd Carr will be available in 2008.
Bears at Chargers: You know what would be a perfect fit? Norv Turner coaching the Bears. Think about it. Turner is a nuts-and-bolts quarterback expert; Rex Grossman is a quarterback with some loose hardware. The Bears don't need a motivator, a tactician, or a personnel guru, because they have a championship team in place. They just need someone to keep Grossman from wigging out every time he makes a mistake. We love Lovie Smith, but maybe he has the wrong Turner running the offense. Replace Ron with Norv, and the Bears go 16-0.
Norvilicious took over a pretty good team in its own right, and the Chargers have the talent to reach the playoffs with Aunt Gladys calling the plays. But the Chargers have Super Bowl aspirations, and they hired the wrong coach for the job. Turner's system is outdated, his discipline is lax, and his teams have a long history of coming up small in big games (unlike Marty Schottenheimer, Turner's big games take place in December, not January). Look for the Chargers to pummel some opponents but lose some heartbreakers as Turner fumbles his way through the playbook and lets the boys be boys in the locker room.
The prediction this week: the Bears will turn the ball over at least three times, LaDainian Tomlinson will score twice, and the announcers will spend the afternoon talking about how brilliant Turner is and Grossman could be. If you can stomach the talk, the 5.5 point spread should go down easy. Take the Chargers, lay the points.
Eagles at Packers: Are you ready to do the "Brett Favre Boogie"? A Milwaukee singer-songwriter named Eddy J. has penned and recorded just such a song; you can hear it at eddy.com. "The 'Brett Favre Boogie' just delivered itself through me from wherever songs come from," Eddy J. said last week. Listen to the song as you tackle such imponderables as: a) isn't this about 12 years too late, and b) how in the heck did he score such a sweet domain name? Was he the fourth guy ever to use the Internet?
Favre will likely boogie out of the NFL at the end of this season, but at Football Outsiders, we believe he will go out a winner. The Packers have surrounded Favre with plenty of young talent in the last two drafts. The schedule is manageable, and the division features two likely also-rans. Favre himself is still the best quarterback in the NFC North, and last year he stopped trying to relive his heyday and started throwing the passes he can still throw.
The one thing the Packers lack is a running game, and that will be trouble on Sunday. The Eagles are still one of the NFC's best teams, and the best way to beat them is to run right at them. Packers rookie running back Brandon Jackson isn't good enough to scare the Eagles, so Favre will spend much of the afternoon boogying away from the Eagles pass rush. Donovan McNabb is healthy and back under center for the Eagles, so they'll score enough points to deliver a win from wherever wins come from.
Titans at Jaguars: The following message comes from the Jacksonville Ministry of Truth. Dave Garrard has always been the Jaguars quarterback. Byron Leftwich has never been the Jaguars quarterback. There is no rift between coach Jack Del Rio and GM Shack Harris. Please go about your ticket and jersey-buying business. Have a double plus good day.
The Jaguars have a great defense, two solid running backs, and a clear shot at the division crown with the Colts weakened from so many off-season losses. So why did they flip quarterbacks a scant week before the start of the season? Del Rio lacked confidence in Leftwich, but Garrard proved last year that he's nothing special if the defense has some film on him. When he faced the Titans in Week 9, he threw three touchdowns and engineered a 37-7 win. When he met them again in Week 15, he threw three interceptions in a 24-17 loss. He's not the guy to lead a team that hopes to go deep into the playoffs.
The Jaguars are better than the Titans at every other position on the field, but Del Rio's teams have a habit of playing down to their opponents. The Jaguars defensive line will shut down the Titans running game, and Garrard should generate enough offense by handing off to Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor that the quarterback change shouldn't be an issue. The seven-point spread is a little optimistic and the number (37.5) seems a bit high, but the Jaguars should win. Then again, Rundown was 0-16 when picking Jaguars games last year, so maybe we should quit now and avoid the December rush.
Plus, by the time you read this, Del Rio and his brain trust may have changed quarterbacks three more times.
Game to skip
Lions at Raiders: Let's play Lane Kiffin's Nursery Pals. The rules are simple. We name five celebrities. You must decide if they are older or younger than the Raiders head coach. The answers can be found at the end of Rundown. Ready? Here's the list: American Idol Bo Bice, basketball star Kevin Garnett, rapper Jadakiss, singer Tamia Washington, former child star Fred Savage.
Kiffin is the youngest coach in NFL history, and when it came time to trim the Raiders roster, he didn't trust many people over 30, bidding farewell to longtime Raider Zach Crockett (three years older than the coach) and short time Raider Donovan Darius (three months younger). Daunte Culpepper, almost two years his coach's junior, gets the starting nod by default because rookie JaMarcus Russell likes unemployment better than the prospect of playing behind the Raiders offensive line. Despite Culpepper's presence, the Raiders are in full rebuilding mode, though they aren't allowed to say the "r" word when Al Davis is in earshot.
The Lions aren't in rebuilding mode. Their future is now. They are going to win at least 10 games this year! We know this because Jon Kitna said so. Hey, the Football Outsiders gang has been known to make some shocking predictions (check out the Buccaneers comment in a few paragraphs), but even we aren't that crazy. Ten wins is a presidential administration's worth of work in Detroit.
We hate to make picks in games like these, but we have a hunch that the Raiders will use a very good defense and a wisp of an offense to make Kitna's double-digit prediction sound even sillier. Then Kiffen will celebrate with cupcakes and a Backyardigans DVD.
Nutshells
Carson Palmer will face a tough test in Week One, squaring off against a strong Baltimore Ravens defense. (Mike Zarrilli / Getty Images)
Ravens at Bengals: Carson Palmer has a problem. He's an elite quarterback, but because some journalists/commentators judge quarterbacks solely by how many "big games" they've won, he doesn't get his due. Bengals players get arrested, their linemen get hurt, their holders bobble snaps, but it all rubs off on Palmer. "Cincinnati won't be great until Palmer does what Peyton Manning does," Bill Williamson wrote on MSNBC last week. The opposite is probably more true: Palmer won't do what Manning did until the Bengals get better.
Week 1 brings an important test in the form of a bitter division rival. The Ravens' defense is at full strength, so Palmer must hope that his banged-up offensive line (Willie Anderson and Levi Jones barely played in the preseason) is ready for Sunday. The Ravens now have running back Willis McGahee, who will test a porous Bengals run defense. It's a bad matchup for the Bengals, particularly if the linemen are hurt, and it's no knock on Palmer if he can't pull them through.
Dolphins at Redskins: The Redskins had a historically-bad third down passing defense last season, but defensive coach Gregg Williams has worked hard to improve the nickel package. He simplified the schemes, scrapped the three-man line, and plans to use newcomers Fred Smoot, LaRon Landry, and London Fletcher-Baker to full effect. It may be a week before the revamped pass defense gets a real test. Dolphins quarterback Trent Green looks gun shy, Cam Cameron's offense doesn't appear fully installed, and the Dolphins receiving corps is long on deep threats but short on reliable move-the-chains targets. Cameron will try to force-feed the ball to Ronnie Brown, but the Redskins' run defense isn't a problem. At Football Outsiders, we predict that the Redskins will have a winning season. This will be the first win.
Buccaneers at Seahawks: If our Redskins prediction shocked you, get this: a little publication called Pro Football Prospectus predicted a nine-win season for the Buccaneers. Crazy, you say? Maybe. But Jeff Garcia gives them competent quarterbacking, Luke Petitgout will solidify the offensive line, and the team added just enough bodies on defense (including linebackers Cato June and Jeremiah Trotter and rookie end Gaines Adams) to stem the erosion of that once-proud unit. Throw in a last place schedule and — voila! — you have a 9-7 team. Or maybe not. The Seahawks still have Shaun Alexander, Matt Hasselbeck, a deep receiving corps, and plenty of playmakers on defense (including newcomer Patrick Kerney). They also have the biggest home field advantage in the league. Sunny predictions aside, we'll take the Seahawks and six points this week.
Steelers at Browns:
1. Return man Allen Rossum, acquired just a week ago, may be the Steelers most important player. Steelers fans will no longer cringe as Santonio Holmes or Willie Reid drops back to muff a punt.
2. Mike Tomlin and Bruce Arians have made intriguing changes to the Steelers' schemes. Look for 2-4-5 defensive alignments on third downs and four-wideout, no huddle sets on offense.
3. Brady Quinn will start the season on the bench because Romeo Crennel doesn't want to expose the rookie to the full fury of the Steelers defense. "CF" stands both for Charlie Frye and Cannon Fodder.
4. Crennel thinks that this year's quarterback competition made Frye mentally stronger. "You have to mentally prepare yourself every day knowing there's somebody competing with you." Great coach. Got something that can make his arm stronger?
5. Frye nearly "led" a victory over the Steelers last season, though he basically stood around and waited for punt and interception return touchdowns in that game. He also lost his other two matchups with the Steelers, including a memorable 41-0 rout two years ago.
6. We like the Steelers but hate laying five points on the road in a divisional game. The Browns will be pesky this year, and they'll win more than four games.
Cardinals at 49ers: Monday Night Football just ain't what it used to be. Don Meredith would only call this game if it came with a two-drink minimum. Sure, the Cardinals and 49ers are potential up-and-comers in the league's weakest division. The Niners had a productive off-season, adding cornerback Nate Clements and receiver Darrell Jackson, while the Cardinals are now led by promising coach Ken Whisenhunt and an exciting collection of skill-position players. But neither team has had a winning record since 2002. For best results, TiVo this game and watch it on Tuesday. Alex Smith fumbles much more quickly on fast forward.
Chiefs at Texans:
1. Larry Johnson is toast after toting the ball 416 times last year.
2. Herm Edwards and Mike Solari's offensive system could make dirt snore.
3. The Texans have a spiffy new offensive backfield (Matt Schaub and Ahman Green) but the same old problems on the offensive line.
4. Gary Kubiak's offense is only slightly more exciting than Solari's,
5.These two teams might not reach the over-under of 38 in a three-game series.
6. With all of the draw plays on 3rd-and-15, this game may clock in at under two-and-a-half hours.
Broncos at Bills: The new-look Broncos feature the best cornerback tandem in the league in Champ Bailey and Dre Bly, plus a rebuilt offense led by sophomore Jay Cutler and hard-running free agent Travis Henry. The Bills need an extension ladder to reach the salary cap; now that Willis McGahee, Nate Clements, London Fletcher, and Takeo Spikes all left, they may be the most anonymous team in the NFL. Their offensive hopes lie with the J.P. Losman-to-Lee Evans combination, which should hook up for several 60-yard touchdowns this season. They won't get any this week with Bailey and Bly patrolling the secondary.
Panthers at Rams: Both the Rams and Panthers made minor changes in the off-season, but neither team worked very hard on root problems. Adam Carriker and Chris Draft spruce up the Rams defense a bit, but they're just ginger bread, and most teams will be able to run through the Rams defense. New offensive coordinator Jeff Davidson promised to bring some wrinkles to Carolina's conservative attack, but we saw a lot of six-yard passes to the tight end on 3rd-and-12 in the preseason, a sign that the team's third down woes (they were last in the league in 2006) may still dog them. Both of these teams are thinking playoffs, and either could slip into that last wild-card berth, but let's use this week to see if the Rams can stop a running back or if Jake Delhomme can take a sack without fumbling.
Falcons at Vikings: Michael Vick became PETA Public Enemy Numero Uno just as new coach Bobby Petrino was installing his offense, so faded prospect Joey Harrington is now at the controls of a system that kicked butt in the Big East but might sputter at the NFL level. Vick's legal problems make the Falcons a rubbernecker's delight, and anything bad that happens to them this season will be chalked up to bad karma, bad chemistry, or divine/canine retribution. But the Falcons were a 6-10 quality team with Vick, and they're a 5-11 team without him. The Vikings aren't much better, but their front seven should shut down the Falcons running game this week. We don't know much about the retooled Tarvaris Jackson/Adrian Peterson backfield, but if the Vikings can grind out 17 points, they'll win.
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Lane Kiffen Over/Under Answers: It was a trick question. Jadakiss is two weeks younger than Kiffen (5-22-75), Bice is six months younger (11-1-1975), Garnett (5-19-76) and Savage (7-9-76) are a more than a year younger. Tamia Washington actually shares Kiffen's birthday: May 9, 1975
Week 1 NFL Rundown
Mike Tanier
FootballOutsiders.com, Updated 18 hours ago STORY TOOLS:
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Bad news, imitators and Rundown haters: Rundown has its sexy back.
We lost our sexy at the same time that Chad Johnson lost his. During Super Bowl XLI, we stashed it in one of Prince's crates to keep it from getting soaked. His Purpleness has a surfeit of sexy, so he sent ours back to us wrapped in a London newspaper. We gave it to Brady Quinn before the draft, but he left it in that inadequately Suzy Kolber-proofed isolation chamber. Good thing, too: our sexy is too sexy for Cleveland.
After the draft, our sexy went on a sojourn. Peyton Manning took it to Saturday Night Live. Steve Smith took it on safari. Travis Henry had it for a while; we are not responsible for anything he did with it. Meanwhile, the Rundown team searched everywhere for sexy substitutes — Ray Lewis' swagger, Brett Favre's grit, Dhani Jones' bowties — but nothing did the trick.
Finally, last week, our sexy turned up in the bottom of the duffel bag in which Michael Strahan keeps all his worldly possessions. And not a moment too soon. Football season is starting! It's time for hard hits and long touchdowns, breathless finishes and last second heroics. It's time for end zone dances and unsportsmanlike conduct penalties. And it's time for FOXSports.com to provide you with Rundown, the sexiest weekly preview on this or any other internet.
You may want to have a cigarette before you continue. It's gonna be that good.
Games to watch
Saints at Colts: In Super Bowl XLI, Peyton Manning went from great quarterback to legend. But after the Colts lost several starters in the off-season, Manning looks more like the Will Smith character from "I Am Legend." Peyton is the last man on earth, or at least in Indy, now that Tarik Glenn, Cato June, Nick Harper, Jason David, and others are gone. Glenn may be the most significant loss: his retirement leaves rookie Tony Ugoh to protect Manning's blind side. The unstoppable Colts offense could be very stoppable if Manning only has a split second to get rid of the ball.
2007 NFL Preview
NFC Previews:
East | North | South | West
AFC Previews:
East | North | South | West
Analysis:
Whitlock: 10 NFL truths for 2007
Hench: Answering the burning questions
Glazer: Making predictions is a Brees
Marvez: Cowboys, 49ers contenders
Schein: Hardware for 2007
Schrager: Power rankings
NFL's modern-day dynasty redefined
Hench: What happened to parity?
Schein: NFC predictions | AFC
Menefee: Ranking all 32 teams
Glazer: Training camp wrap-up
Video: Sehorn's Division Previews
AFC East | North | South | West
NFC East | North | South | West
While few experts are talking up a Colts repeat in the wake of the Patriots spending spree, the Saints have become fashionable Super Bowl picks. We aren't climbing on that Mardi Gras float. Sure, they were fun to root for last season, their backfield is great, and Sean Payton is one of the brightest young coaches in the game. But the Saints lack depth at several positions (offensive line, linebacker), and they are counting on several players who are coming off career years in 2006. Maybe the whole team suddenly got a lot better last year. Or maybe they got a little better, then rode a wave of emotion and a last-place schedule into the playoffs. We suspect that the latter is closer to the truth.
Both offenses looked machete-sharp through most of the preseason, but the over/under is hardly stratospheric (51). Take the over and you'll be in bed before the end of the third quarter. As for the line (Colts -6), take the home team, but don't read too much into a Week 1 Colts victory. Both teams will be fun to watch this season, but fun teams don't often reach the Super Bowl.
Patriots at Jets: Time now to spice things up with a supermodel-laden drama, Tom Brady style.
As you probably know, Brady spent the off-season torn between two hotties. While ex-squeeze Bridget Moynahan carried Brady's baby, current flame Gisele Bundchen planned nuptials and publicly criticized her beau for spending too much time with Moynahan. Brady found himself surrounded by high-maintenance prima donnas with unrealistic demands for his time and attention. And that was before the Patriots traded for Randy Moss.
Brady certainly had a lot on his mind. Bundchen spent August trying on Dior and Chanel wedding dresses while finalizing guest lists. "They want to keep it small and simple," one Bundchen buddy told a tabloid. Presumably, that means Norv Turner is planning the services. Moynahan, meanwhile, moved from New York to Los Angeles to avoid paparazzi; Al Davis promptly sued her, claiming that Los Angeles is still his territory. A Bill Belichick student to the core, Brady made sure that the press didn't know the baby's due date: Moynahan was listed as "questionable" on the injury report from April through mid-August. Finally, the blessed moment came, and Brady was at Moynahan's side as she gave birth to a son. He was named John Edward Thomas Moynahan, which sounds like the Democratic presidential ticket in 2012.
At least Brady knew what to expect from Uncle Eric Mangini as a shower present. Mangini is a big fan of those "Build Your Baby's Brain" CDs. He even started pumping Mozart into Jets film sessions to get his players to focus better. The classical concepts are seeping into the team's system: they will now use an "Allegro" offense for two-minute drills but switch to a "Lento" offense when nursing a lead late in the game. Mangini hopes the Mozart therapy can help the Jets improve in a variety of areas, including the run defense, which ranked dead last in the league in DVOA last year.
Hey, if you don't like this soapy stuff, we could go back to last year, when we spent six weeks analyzing Belichick-Mangini handshakes. Mangini stunned his mentor when the Jets won their second meeting with the Patriots, a 17-14 victory in Foxboro. The master later put Mangini in his place in a 37-16 playoff beatdown. The Jets are making steady progress under Mangini, but they are still a full notch below the reigning division champs personnel-wise. Even with Richard Seymour and Rodney Harrison unavailable, the Patriots have enough bodies on defense to hold Chad Pennington and company in check. And the Patriots offense, now tricked out with Moss, Donte Stallworth, Wes Welker and others, will leave most AFC opponents in its dust.
Long story short: take the Pats, lay the points. Brady may win the Super Bowl this year. But he'll drive off in a Hyundai.
Giants at Cowboys: Tiki Barber is gone. Tom Coughlin is still in New York. Bill Parcells is gone. Terrell Owens is still in Dallas. It all seems backward. Yet things aren't always what they seem.
Eli Manning will have to do more than trade barbs with ex-teammate Tiki Barber to beat the 'Boys on Sunday. ( / Getty Images)
Barber the television announcer slammed Eli Manning's leadership ability during a preseason telecast. Maybe Tiki, the paragon of class and competitiveness, is really just a smooth-talking opportunist. Eli fired back, earning praise from Big Apple fans. Maybe the wide-eyed Southern boy has some fire in his belly. Players complained that Parcells had them acting like robots and that his schemes were vanilla. Maybe the grizzled general was really just a tired old man. Coughlin and Owens have been cool customers all season. Maybe ... nah, they're both still nuttier than cheese logs.
So while appearances can often deceive, don't be afraid to believe your eyes. The Giants really are a team reeling from retirements and defections, with a quarterback who makes critical mistakes and a coach who alienates his veterans. The Cowboys really are a mix of big names and big question marks coached by an old softie (Wade Philips) who will soon feel Owens' cleats on his lumbar region. These teams may be glamorous, but come December, it will be the Eagles and Redskins duking it out for the NFC East.
Take the Boys at home this week; wait for the Giants to prove they are a fixer-upper's nightmare before you risk money on them. Giants fans, take heart: Lloyd Carr will be available in 2008.
Bears at Chargers: You know what would be a perfect fit? Norv Turner coaching the Bears. Think about it. Turner is a nuts-and-bolts quarterback expert; Rex Grossman is a quarterback with some loose hardware. The Bears don't need a motivator, a tactician, or a personnel guru, because they have a championship team in place. They just need someone to keep Grossman from wigging out every time he makes a mistake. We love Lovie Smith, but maybe he has the wrong Turner running the offense. Replace Ron with Norv, and the Bears go 16-0.
Norvilicious took over a pretty good team in its own right, and the Chargers have the talent to reach the playoffs with Aunt Gladys calling the plays. But the Chargers have Super Bowl aspirations, and they hired the wrong coach for the job. Turner's system is outdated, his discipline is lax, and his teams have a long history of coming up small in big games (unlike Marty Schottenheimer, Turner's big games take place in December, not January). Look for the Chargers to pummel some opponents but lose some heartbreakers as Turner fumbles his way through the playbook and lets the boys be boys in the locker room.
The prediction this week: the Bears will turn the ball over at least three times, LaDainian Tomlinson will score twice, and the announcers will spend the afternoon talking about how brilliant Turner is and Grossman could be. If you can stomach the talk, the 5.5 point spread should go down easy. Take the Chargers, lay the points.
Eagles at Packers: Are you ready to do the "Brett Favre Boogie"? A Milwaukee singer-songwriter named Eddy J. has penned and recorded just such a song; you can hear it at eddy.com. "The 'Brett Favre Boogie' just delivered itself through me from wherever songs come from," Eddy J. said last week. Listen to the song as you tackle such imponderables as: a) isn't this about 12 years too late, and b) how in the heck did he score such a sweet domain name? Was he the fourth guy ever to use the Internet?
Favre will likely boogie out of the NFL at the end of this season, but at Football Outsiders, we believe he will go out a winner. The Packers have surrounded Favre with plenty of young talent in the last two drafts. The schedule is manageable, and the division features two likely also-rans. Favre himself is still the best quarterback in the NFC North, and last year he stopped trying to relive his heyday and started throwing the passes he can still throw.
The one thing the Packers lack is a running game, and that will be trouble on Sunday. The Eagles are still one of the NFC's best teams, and the best way to beat them is to run right at them. Packers rookie running back Brandon Jackson isn't good enough to scare the Eagles, so Favre will spend much of the afternoon boogying away from the Eagles pass rush. Donovan McNabb is healthy and back under center for the Eagles, so they'll score enough points to deliver a win from wherever wins come from.
Titans at Jaguars: The following message comes from the Jacksonville Ministry of Truth. Dave Garrard has always been the Jaguars quarterback. Byron Leftwich has never been the Jaguars quarterback. There is no rift between coach Jack Del Rio and GM Shack Harris. Please go about your ticket and jersey-buying business. Have a double plus good day.
The Jaguars have a great defense, two solid running backs, and a clear shot at the division crown with the Colts weakened from so many off-season losses. So why did they flip quarterbacks a scant week before the start of the season? Del Rio lacked confidence in Leftwich, but Garrard proved last year that he's nothing special if the defense has some film on him. When he faced the Titans in Week 9, he threw three touchdowns and engineered a 37-7 win. When he met them again in Week 15, he threw three interceptions in a 24-17 loss. He's not the guy to lead a team that hopes to go deep into the playoffs.
The Jaguars are better than the Titans at every other position on the field, but Del Rio's teams have a habit of playing down to their opponents. The Jaguars defensive line will shut down the Titans running game, and Garrard should generate enough offense by handing off to Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor that the quarterback change shouldn't be an issue. The seven-point spread is a little optimistic and the number (37.5) seems a bit high, but the Jaguars should win. Then again, Rundown was 0-16 when picking Jaguars games last year, so maybe we should quit now and avoid the December rush.
Plus, by the time you read this, Del Rio and his brain trust may have changed quarterbacks three more times.
Game to skip
Lions at Raiders: Let's play Lane Kiffin's Nursery Pals. The rules are simple. We name five celebrities. You must decide if they are older or younger than the Raiders head coach. The answers can be found at the end of Rundown. Ready? Here's the list: American Idol Bo Bice, basketball star Kevin Garnett, rapper Jadakiss, singer Tamia Washington, former child star Fred Savage.
Kiffin is the youngest coach in NFL history, and when it came time to trim the Raiders roster, he didn't trust many people over 30, bidding farewell to longtime Raider Zach Crockett (three years older than the coach) and short time Raider Donovan Darius (three months younger). Daunte Culpepper, almost two years his coach's junior, gets the starting nod by default because rookie JaMarcus Russell likes unemployment better than the prospect of playing behind the Raiders offensive line. Despite Culpepper's presence, the Raiders are in full rebuilding mode, though they aren't allowed to say the "r" word when Al Davis is in earshot.
The Lions aren't in rebuilding mode. Their future is now. They are going to win at least 10 games this year! We know this because Jon Kitna said so. Hey, the Football Outsiders gang has been known to make some shocking predictions (check out the Buccaneers comment in a few paragraphs), but even we aren't that crazy. Ten wins is a presidential administration's worth of work in Detroit.
We hate to make picks in games like these, but we have a hunch that the Raiders will use a very good defense and a wisp of an offense to make Kitna's double-digit prediction sound even sillier. Then Kiffen will celebrate with cupcakes and a Backyardigans DVD.
Nutshells
Carson Palmer will face a tough test in Week One, squaring off against a strong Baltimore Ravens defense. (Mike Zarrilli / Getty Images)
Ravens at Bengals: Carson Palmer has a problem. He's an elite quarterback, but because some journalists/commentators judge quarterbacks solely by how many "big games" they've won, he doesn't get his due. Bengals players get arrested, their linemen get hurt, their holders bobble snaps, but it all rubs off on Palmer. "Cincinnati won't be great until Palmer does what Peyton Manning does," Bill Williamson wrote on MSNBC last week. The opposite is probably more true: Palmer won't do what Manning did until the Bengals get better.
Week 1 brings an important test in the form of a bitter division rival. The Ravens' defense is at full strength, so Palmer must hope that his banged-up offensive line (Willie Anderson and Levi Jones barely played in the preseason) is ready for Sunday. The Ravens now have running back Willis McGahee, who will test a porous Bengals run defense. It's a bad matchup for the Bengals, particularly if the linemen are hurt, and it's no knock on Palmer if he can't pull them through.
Dolphins at Redskins: The Redskins had a historically-bad third down passing defense last season, but defensive coach Gregg Williams has worked hard to improve the nickel package. He simplified the schemes, scrapped the three-man line, and plans to use newcomers Fred Smoot, LaRon Landry, and London Fletcher-Baker to full effect. It may be a week before the revamped pass defense gets a real test. Dolphins quarterback Trent Green looks gun shy, Cam Cameron's offense doesn't appear fully installed, and the Dolphins receiving corps is long on deep threats but short on reliable move-the-chains targets. Cameron will try to force-feed the ball to Ronnie Brown, but the Redskins' run defense isn't a problem. At Football Outsiders, we predict that the Redskins will have a winning season. This will be the first win.
Buccaneers at Seahawks: If our Redskins prediction shocked you, get this: a little publication called Pro Football Prospectus predicted a nine-win season for the Buccaneers. Crazy, you say? Maybe. But Jeff Garcia gives them competent quarterbacking, Luke Petitgout will solidify the offensive line, and the team added just enough bodies on defense (including linebackers Cato June and Jeremiah Trotter and rookie end Gaines Adams) to stem the erosion of that once-proud unit. Throw in a last place schedule and — voila! — you have a 9-7 team. Or maybe not. The Seahawks still have Shaun Alexander, Matt Hasselbeck, a deep receiving corps, and plenty of playmakers on defense (including newcomer Patrick Kerney). They also have the biggest home field advantage in the league. Sunny predictions aside, we'll take the Seahawks and six points this week.
Steelers at Browns:
1. Return man Allen Rossum, acquired just a week ago, may be the Steelers most important player. Steelers fans will no longer cringe as Santonio Holmes or Willie Reid drops back to muff a punt.
2. Mike Tomlin and Bruce Arians have made intriguing changes to the Steelers' schemes. Look for 2-4-5 defensive alignments on third downs and four-wideout, no huddle sets on offense.
3. Brady Quinn will start the season on the bench because Romeo Crennel doesn't want to expose the rookie to the full fury of the Steelers defense. "CF" stands both for Charlie Frye and Cannon Fodder.
4. Crennel thinks that this year's quarterback competition made Frye mentally stronger. "You have to mentally prepare yourself every day knowing there's somebody competing with you." Great coach. Got something that can make his arm stronger?
5. Frye nearly "led" a victory over the Steelers last season, though he basically stood around and waited for punt and interception return touchdowns in that game. He also lost his other two matchups with the Steelers, including a memorable 41-0 rout two years ago.
6. We like the Steelers but hate laying five points on the road in a divisional game. The Browns will be pesky this year, and they'll win more than four games.
Cardinals at 49ers: Monday Night Football just ain't what it used to be. Don Meredith would only call this game if it came with a two-drink minimum. Sure, the Cardinals and 49ers are potential up-and-comers in the league's weakest division. The Niners had a productive off-season, adding cornerback Nate Clements and receiver Darrell Jackson, while the Cardinals are now led by promising coach Ken Whisenhunt and an exciting collection of skill-position players. But neither team has had a winning record since 2002. For best results, TiVo this game and watch it on Tuesday. Alex Smith fumbles much more quickly on fast forward.
Chiefs at Texans:
1. Larry Johnson is toast after toting the ball 416 times last year.
2. Herm Edwards and Mike Solari's offensive system could make dirt snore.
3. The Texans have a spiffy new offensive backfield (Matt Schaub and Ahman Green) but the same old problems on the offensive line.
4. Gary Kubiak's offense is only slightly more exciting than Solari's,
5.These two teams might not reach the over-under of 38 in a three-game series.
6. With all of the draw plays on 3rd-and-15, this game may clock in at under two-and-a-half hours.
Broncos at Bills: The new-look Broncos feature the best cornerback tandem in the league in Champ Bailey and Dre Bly, plus a rebuilt offense led by sophomore Jay Cutler and hard-running free agent Travis Henry. The Bills need an extension ladder to reach the salary cap; now that Willis McGahee, Nate Clements, London Fletcher, and Takeo Spikes all left, they may be the most anonymous team in the NFL. Their offensive hopes lie with the J.P. Losman-to-Lee Evans combination, which should hook up for several 60-yard touchdowns this season. They won't get any this week with Bailey and Bly patrolling the secondary.
Panthers at Rams: Both the Rams and Panthers made minor changes in the off-season, but neither team worked very hard on root problems. Adam Carriker and Chris Draft spruce up the Rams defense a bit, but they're just ginger bread, and most teams will be able to run through the Rams defense. New offensive coordinator Jeff Davidson promised to bring some wrinkles to Carolina's conservative attack, but we saw a lot of six-yard passes to the tight end on 3rd-and-12 in the preseason, a sign that the team's third down woes (they were last in the league in 2006) may still dog them. Both of these teams are thinking playoffs, and either could slip into that last wild-card berth, but let's use this week to see if the Rams can stop a running back or if Jake Delhomme can take a sack without fumbling.
Falcons at Vikings: Michael Vick became PETA Public Enemy Numero Uno just as new coach Bobby Petrino was installing his offense, so faded prospect Joey Harrington is now at the controls of a system that kicked butt in the Big East but might sputter at the NFL level. Vick's legal problems make the Falcons a rubbernecker's delight, and anything bad that happens to them this season will be chalked up to bad karma, bad chemistry, or divine/canine retribution. But the Falcons were a 6-10 quality team with Vick, and they're a 5-11 team without him. The Vikings aren't much better, but their front seven should shut down the Falcons running game this week. We don't know much about the retooled Tarvaris Jackson/Adrian Peterson backfield, but if the Vikings can grind out 17 points, they'll win.
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Lane Kiffen Over/Under Answers: It was a trick question. Jadakiss is two weeks younger than Kiffen (5-22-75), Bice is six months younger (11-1-1975), Garnett (5-19-76) and Savage (7-9-76) are a more than a year younger. Tamia Washington actually shares Kiffen's birthday: May 9, 1975