1. #1
    KVB
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    KVB...NBA...Something to consider in Miami and Milwaukee...

    There are many ways to handicap these sports and some ways work better in different situations than others. Sometimes more sophisticated ways to handicap tend to meet eye to eye with less sophisticated methods and average handicapping. This can be mere coincidence or by design in the marketplace.

    Many modelers have the Spurs -7 and Under 196. When forecasting this game I can see much agreement with projections, from less sophisticated bettors to more advanced bettors, of the Spurs winning by about 9 points in games falling some 20 points under the Total of 196.

    As projections get a little more sophisticated, however, we begin to see a higher scoring game, closer to 200, with a much closer spread…all the way down to near a pick em, with the Spurs getting the nod.

    This is not say some are any less sophisticated than the next guy, but to illustrate the truth that different players can agree; while everyone will eventually, with some games, have outlier results, far from the lines offered. This is often dictated by the marketplace.

    As for the Boston Celtics, again a large part of the space, including less sophisticated players, have the Celtics winning by about 5 points. As the predictions get more enhanced, however, we find Boston can be projected to win by as many as 13 points. This type of agreement could easily spell trouble for the Celtics and we could see a high scoring game if the underdog plays tough.

    I would expect line movements consistent with the more sophisticated projections here. For example, if you see a drop in the Spurs point spread, be aware that it wasn’t a volume of tickets with money, but few tickets with large money, or what they call reverse line movement.

    Interestingly, for the Celtics game, virtually everyone agrees with a total around 203 or 204. Despite this, the books show a 208 point line that has pressured upward to 208.5.

    The Celtics get into the hundreds quite a bit and Milwaukee tends to give up in the hundreds, could public perception have caused the oddsmakers to open the line a bit too high or are the books trying to draw the forecasters into an Under bet? In this market of give and take, it seems to me, that the OVER 208, despite appearing to get a lot of play, could be a difficult bet to swallow.

    Then again, those most difficult bets can often be the winning bets.

    Watch out for the Heat at home tonight and a close game in Milwaukee could spell the OVER in that issue.

    Good Luck

    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 2 times . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: johnny99, and jjgold

  2. #2
    Goat Milk
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    2 page essay about 2 games tonight and not 1 player mentioned in entire essay. Basketball is played on the court, with players, who have skills, against opponents, who have different skills, and each team formulates a game plan based on that, and the players execute that game plan, and exploit mismatches. Books don't bet on these games. They create a line they think will produce an even amount of bets on both sides. Books gamble on 1% of games. They're definitely not gambling on the Bucks and Celtics or Heat and Spurs meaningless regular season games.... So analyze the matchup and if you think you have an angle based on that, or based on human intangible elements...i.e. hunger, a players meeting, a death....then wager.

  3. #3
    FlipsideRM
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    Lol at this guy trying to give gambling tips to the sharpest poster on the forum.

    Good luck kvb

  4. #4
    MasterJames
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    So you're leaning towards the heats and Boston over 208?

  5. #5
    Antibet
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    Many modelers have jjgold's pipiska at 2.5 inches. As projections get a little more sophisticated, however, we begin to see it closer to 2 inches.

    Conclusion: more sophisticated players are just a bunch of mean bastards. Even if it's indeed only 2 inches, give jjgold a break and let him add a half inch or so to it

  6. #6
    Goat Milk
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlipsideRM View Post
    Lol at this guy trying to give gambling tips to the sharpest poster on the forum.

    Good luck kvb
    Why can statisticians can only find slight edges in their models? Because they don't account for so many matchups and intangibles. Only account for advanced analytics and other obvious things like b2b games, 4 in 5 nights, injuries, etc. Being a statistician as well as being able to undestand all the nuances of the game will give you a distinct advantage over anyone in the business. All these teams that are hiring statisticians to implement x or y philosophy are all failing because they don't account for any of the matchups or other human elements involved in basketball.

  7. #7
    Birdman557
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    Quote Originally Posted by Goat Milk View Post
    Why can statisticians can only find slight edges in their models? Because they don't account for so many matchups and intangibles. Only account for advanced analytics and other obvious things like b2b games, 4 in 5 nights, injuries, etc. Being a statistician as well as being able to undestand all the nuances of the game will give you a distinct advantage over anyone in the business. All these teams that are hiring statisticians to implement x or y philosophy are all failing because they don't account for any of the matchups or other human elements involved in basketball.
    What happened to this thread "champ"?
    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...15-2016-a.html
    Less than 1 full page

  8. #8
    Antibet
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    I agree. 2 inches, 2.5 inches... statistics don't matter, human element - that's what counts

  9. #9
    Ballerholic
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    Okay but are you a winning capper?

  10. #10
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by MasterJames View Post
    So you're leaning towards the heats and Boston over 208?
    That's about right. I would like to suggest the Bucks but that's probably better left untouched and I think OVER is a better play. Other metrics indicate it could end very close to the 208 number.


  11. #11
    pilebuck13
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    like and appreciate your time with write up kvb.....that being said what happened super bowl 50

  12. #12
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by Goat Milk View Post
    2 page essay about 2 games tonight and not 1 player mentioned in entire essay. Basketball is played on the court, with players, who have skills, against opponents, who have different skills, and each team formulates a game plan based on that, and the players execute that game plan, and exploit mismatches. Books don't bet on these games. They create a line they think will produce an even amount of bets on both sides. Books gamble on 1% of games. They're definitely not gambling on the Bucks and Celtics or Heat and Spurs meaningless regular season games.... So analyze the matchup and if you think you have an angle based on that, or based on human intangible elements...i.e. hunger, a players meeting, a death....then wager.


    I don't have time to get into the many things that are right and wrong with this above post other than to say I am far more than some ancient stat black box modeler.


    Quote Originally Posted by Goat Milk View Post
    ...Being a statistician as well as being able to undestand all the nuances of the game will give you a distinct advantage over anyone in the business...
    That post also has many right and wrong things but the part I selected here is basically true. I will say that understanding the relevant numbers and relationships they have to reality on the court is essential to beating these markets. That is doing far more than a statistician could ever accomplish.

    GOAT, subjective bettors like yourself have many obstacles to overcome to win long term. I’ve posted on it before and could probably dedicate a whole thread to it. I’m not saying you can’t win, but I know many reasons why you don’t.

    The fact is one of the many differences between winning bettors and the rest of the marketplace is our ability to take relevant subjective angles and assign relevant quantitative values to project a final score.

    You see GOAT, I can, and did, do all the subjective handicapping you demand but, unlike you, I can compare that handicapping to the marketplace to see if there is a winning investment.

    Other bettors never really know what they bought and how it increased their losses.



  13. #13
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by pilebuck13 View Post
    like and appreciate your time with write up kvb.....that being said what happened super bowl 50
    My OVER play was a failure, but had to get it at 43.5.The analysis indicating signs to buy the Denver moneyline throughout the thread turned out to be the right call.


  14. #14
    jjgold
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    line never really moved either way meaning no value on either side

  15. #15
    pilebuck13
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    thanks bro jj u got a college hoops play

  16. #16
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    line never really moved either way meaning no value on either side
    Are you talking about the SuperBowl?

    Not only did the line move off of 45 to 45.5 and back to 45, it also moved off of 45 to 44.5 and then another move onto 44.

    On top of that, the line moved off of 44 onto 43.5.

    These moves between 45 (or 45.5) and 43.5 are for more significant, require market moving money, and can trigger more value than most realize.

    If you are talking about the Superbowl JJ, you couldn't be more wrong. The total moved significantly and implies the oddsmakers made a small mistake in the opener.


  17. #17
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    ...I would expect line movements consistent with the more sophisticated projections here. For example, if you see a drop in the Spurs point spread, be aware that it wasn’t a volume of tickets with money, but few tickets with large money, or what they call reverse line movement...
    Spurs trading at 6.5 across the board. This isn't an easy shift, there are plenty of SA backers.


  18. #18
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by MasterJames View Post
    So you're leaning towards the heats and Boston over 208?
    Heat playing strong and Boston/Milwaukee high scoring early on...those that know me know I don't like to be ahead early.

    Here come sharks...


  19. #19
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by MasterJames View Post
    So you're leaning towards the heats and Boston over 208?
    Wait, you've been around two full years and this was your first post?

    Stick around pal, we'll get some winners out of these markets.


  20. #20
    MasterJames
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    Wait, you've been around two full years and this was your first post?

    Stick around pal, we'll get some winners out of these markets.

    Been a full time lurker lol

  21. #21
    KVB
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    In that case, I'm honored you stopped by.


  22. #22
    terrenceross
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    You should have stuck to the bucks prediction. I could see that you wanted to say Bucks ML so bad but did not want to risk the integrity of your thread on a weak team.

  23. #23
    GT21Megatron
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    Quote Originally Posted by Birdman557 View Post
    What happened to this thread "champ"?
    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...15-2016-a.html
    Less than 1 full page
    Talk about disappearing faster then El Chapo

  24. #24
    pilebuck13
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    Seems like the bashing on goat has to do with stuff way before my time here just seems like guy always gives insight and is respectful idk like I said this has to be old beef

  25. #25
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by terrenceross View Post
    You should have stuck to the bucks prediction. I could see that you wanted to say Bucks ML so bad but did not want to risk the integrity of your thread on a weak team.
    Good post Ross. That Buck’s and OVER turned out to the play. Actually, this post was originally a reply in LT’s thread that went too long.

    I titled this like I did because I felt readers could simply consider my market analysis along with their usual handicapping…especially on the ground and match up type capping. It’s good when others add to the thread.

    I also usually give my own projection, along with other market forecasts. This time I just offered the market analysis. I suppose that’s because LT already had a prediction.

    It’s probably smart to read carefully like you did, I often have recurring themes, even if not in bold. For example, I did not put a Super Bowl moneyline in bold but mentioned a couple of times over a couple days that Denver was the play I was concluding from the markets…it is what it is.

    I did put in bold a losing OVER though. That’s just one play. I’ve lost a lot of NFL totals this year…can’t win them all.

    Hopefully, if my insight doesn’t help you onto a winner, it takes you off of a loser.



  26. #26
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by pilebuck13 View Post
    Seems like the bashing on goat has to do with stuff way before my time here just seems like guy always gives insight and is respectful idk like I said this has to be old beef
    I also think GOAT provides some accurate and good info on teams and players. I've read decent stuff from him regarding team building. I think he is probably an excellent subjective capper with a lot of years of experience to work with. I think GOAT has some wisdom but we can all learn.

    Mabye if adding something about the match ups instead of just bashing the OP for the analysis I didn't have to write he would get a different reception.

    My post was for guys like him, to consider along with their work.


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