1. 01-30-16 09:18 AM #1
    a4u2fear
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    NHL all star game total

    Over last 50 3/3 OT games, goals are scored at 3.15 goals per 20 mins

    nhl regular season games avg 5.2 goals per game
    last 6 all star games avg 21.7 goals per game or 4.17 multiplier

    3.15 becomes 13.14 with multiplier

    using sbrs poisson calculator
    over 14.5 goals +193
    under 14.5 -193
    both are -110 at books right now

    now, each team essentially has two lines, which I believe will make skaters more tired, more reason for the under

    players are fighting over incentive of $1M if they win, so unlike previous all star games, there should be a little more compete, but maybe not much

    i do not want to make a play on both games since I could be wrong, but since the outlier in this game is John Scott and his skill is much worse in many ways that affect the goals scored (3 on 3 is a lot of skating and skill in open ice), I will assume his game is more likely to have less goals since he will be on the ice 50% of the game,

    my play is on th under 14.5 in pacific vs central
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  2. 01-30-16 09:26 AM #2
    jjgold
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    Fear your making this complicated but you did the work so tailing

    It better win man
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  3. 01-30-16 09:29 AM #3
    Russian Rocket
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    I already locked under 14.5 for both games.
    Good thread!
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  4. 01-30-16 10:10 AM #4
    a4u2fear
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    Keep in mind your largest chance at success and a +EV play is when the book is setting a line in an event they do not really have a good idea what will happen
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  5. 01-30-16 10:16 AM #5
    Russian Rocket
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    Quote Originally Posted by a4u2fear View Post
    Keep in mind your largest chance at success and a +EV play is when the book is setting a line in an event they do not really have a good idea what will happen
    This is very true...the tired legs could play in our advantage here or it could turn into a complete disaster
    Which one is it going to be remains to be seen
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  6. 01-30-16 11:11 AM #6
    cankid
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    should be interesting, hope it hits!!
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  7. 01-30-16 11:57 AM #7
    BigdaddyQH
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    Only the desperate would wager on a game like this. Strictly for the losers of the gaming world.
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  8. 01-30-16 12:19 PM #8
    Russian Rocket
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH View Post
    Only the desperate would wager on a game like this. Strictly for the losers of the gaming world.
    or for someone who enjoys hockey and follows it very closely
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  9. 01-30-16 12:53 PM #9
    Cabo
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    Don't know how much its changes OP's calculations, but each team has 3 lines, not 2.
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  10. 01-30-16 01:00 PM #10
    Russian Rocket
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cabo View Post
    Don't know how much its changes OP's calculations, but each team has 3 lines, not 2.
    Yup you're right.
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  11. 01-30-16 01:22 PM #11
    a4u2fear
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH View Post
    Only the desperate would wager on a game like this. Strictly for the losers of the gaming world.
    Actually it's called exploiting weak lines whenever you see them, it what winning bettors do. Will you be providing your game of the year bet on the super bowl?
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  12. 01-30-16 08:18 PM #12
    Rich Boy
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    Not bad play here, staying away though.
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  13. 01-31-16 05:07 PM #13
    Russian Rocket
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    Quote Originally Posted by Russian Rocket View Post
    I already locked under 14.5 for both games.
    Good thread!
    easy cash on the first one - 7 goals total


    ...on to the 2nd game we go
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  14. 01-31-16 05:19 PM #14
    Russian Rocket
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    The total for the 2nd game is now U 10½ +107
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  15. 01-31-16 05:28 PM #15
    Jayvegas420
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    I was on under 14.5 1st game & over 10.5 2nd game.
    The over is looking good in game 2.
    John Scott scored one 2 mins into game!!!!!!!!!
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  16. 01-31-16 06:10 PM #16
    a4u2fear
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    Bummer. Boner. Goodnight
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  17. 01-31-16 06:11 PM #17
    Russian Rocket
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    There is total 12.5 for the 3rd game - it's not over yet A4u2fear
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  18. 01-31-16 06:12 PM #18
    a4u2fear
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    Ha and of course hits 15, SOB
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  19. 01-31-16 06:29 PM #19
    Jayvegas420
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    Under 3rd game!!!
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  20. 01-31-16 06:36 PM #20
    POOLSIDE
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    John Scott proving he belongs here. Do not fade this guy.
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  21. 01-31-16 06:37 PM #21
    Jayvegas420
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    #JohnScottforPrimeMinister
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  22. 01-31-16 06:38 PM #22
    Russian Rocket
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    Quote Originally Posted by POOLSIDE View Post
    John Scott proving he belongs here. Do not fade this guy.
    while POS Bettman, who was trying to force him out of the All-Star game, signs a contract extensions through 2022
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  23. 01-31-16 07:18 PM #23
    mr. leisure
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    Thats crazy ,1-0 final in an allstar game
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  24. 01-31-16 07:40 PM #24
    Jayvegas420
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    May never see that again in our lifetime
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