NHL all star game total

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  • a4u2fear
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 01-29-10
    • 8147

    #1
    NHL all star game total
    Over last 50 3/3 OT games, goals are scored at 3.15 goals per 20 mins

    nhl regular season games avg 5.2 goals per game
    last 6 all star games avg 21.7 goals per game or 4.17 multiplier

    3.15 becomes 13.14 with multiplier

    using sbrs poisson calculator
    over 14.5 goals +193
    under 14.5 -193
    both are -110 at books right now

    now, each team essentially has two lines, which I believe will make skaters more tired, more reason for the under

    players are fighting over incentive of $1M if they win, so unlike previous all star games, there should be a little more compete, but maybe not much

    i do not want to make a play on both games since I could be wrong, but since the outlier in this game is John Scott and his skill is much worse in many ways that affect the goals scored (3 on 3 is a lot of skating and skill in open ice), I will assume his game is more likely to have less goals since he will be on the ice 50% of the game,

    my play is on th under 14.5 in pacific vs central
  • jjgold
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 07-20-05
    • 388179

    #2
    Fear your making this complicated but you did the work so tailing

    It better win man
    Comment
    • Russian Rocket
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 09-02-12
      • 43910

      #3
      I already locked under 14.5 for both games.
      Good thread!
      Comment
      • a4u2fear
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 01-29-10
        • 8147

        #4
        Keep in mind your largest chance at success and a +EV play is when the book is setting a line in an event they do not really have a good idea what will happen
        Comment
        • Russian Rocket
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 09-02-12
          • 43910

          #5
          Originally posted by a4u2fear
          Keep in mind your largest chance at success and a +EV play is when the book is setting a line in an event they do not really have a good idea what will happen
          This is very true...the tired legs could play in our advantage here or it could turn into a complete disaster
          Which one is it going to be remains to be seen
          Comment
          • cankid
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 08-22-08
            • 7227

            #6
            should be interesting, hope it hits!!
            Comment
            • BigdaddyQH
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 07-13-09
              • 19530

              #7
              Only the desperate would wager on a game like this. Strictly for the losers of the gaming world.
              Comment
              • Russian Rocket
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 09-02-12
                • 43910

                #8
                Originally posted by BigdaddyQH
                Only the desperate would wager on a game like this. Strictly for the losers of the gaming world.
                or for someone who enjoys hockey and follows it very closely
                Comment
                • Cabo
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 09-07-06
                  • 5273

                  #9
                  Don't know how much its changes OP's calculations, but each team has 3 lines, not 2.
                  Comment
                  • Russian Rocket
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 09-02-12
                    • 43910

                    #10
                    Originally posted by Cabo
                    Don't know how much its changes OP's calculations, but each team has 3 lines, not 2.
                    Yup you're right.
                    Comment
                    • a4u2fear
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 01-29-10
                      • 8147

                      #11
                      Originally posted by BigdaddyQH
                      Only the desperate would wager on a game like this. Strictly for the losers of the gaming world.
                      Actually it's called exploiting weak lines whenever you see them, it what winning bettors do. Will you be providing your game of the year bet on the super bowl?
                      Comment
                      • Rich Boy
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 02-01-09
                        • 9714

                        #12
                        Not bad play here, staying away though.
                        Comment
                        • Russian Rocket
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 09-02-12
                          • 43910

                          #13
                          Originally posted by Russian Rocket
                          I already locked under 14.5 for both games.
                          Good thread!
                          easy cash on the first one - 7 goals total


                          ...on to the 2nd game we go
                          Comment
                          • Russian Rocket
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 09-02-12
                            • 43910

                            #14
                            The total for the 2nd game is now U 10½ +107
                            Comment
                            • Jayvegas420
                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                              • 03-09-11
                              • 28213

                              #15
                              I was on under 14.5 1st game & over 10.5 2nd game.
                              The over is looking good in game 2.
                              John Scott scored one 2 mins into game!!!!!!!!!
                              Comment
                              • a4u2fear
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 01-29-10
                                • 8147

                                #16
                                Bummer. Boner. Goodnight
                                Comment
                                • Russian Rocket
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 09-02-12
                                  • 43910

                                  #17
                                  There is total 12.5 for the 3rd game - it's not over yet A4u2fear
                                  Comment
                                  • a4u2fear
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 01-29-10
                                    • 8147

                                    #18
                                    Ha and of course hits 15, SOB
                                    Comment
                                    • Jayvegas420
                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                      • 03-09-11
                                      • 28213

                                      #19
                                      Under 3rd game!!!
                                      Comment
                                      • POOLSIDE
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 09-06-14
                                        • 2839

                                        #20
                                        John Scott proving he belongs here. Do not fade this guy.
                                        Comment
                                        • Jayvegas420
                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                          • 03-09-11
                                          • 28213

                                          #21
                                          #JohnScottforPrimeMinister
                                          Comment
                                          • Russian Rocket
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 09-02-12
                                            • 43910

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by POOLSIDE
                                            John Scott proving he belongs here. Do not fade this guy.
                                            while POS Bettman, who was trying to force him out of the All-Star game, signs a contract extensions through 2022
                                            Comment
                                            • mr. leisure
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 01-29-08
                                              • 17507

                                              #23
                                              Thats crazy ,1-0 final in an allstar game
                                              Comment
                                              • Jayvegas420
                                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                • 03-09-11
                                                • 28213

                                                #24
                                                May never see that again in our lifetime
                                                Comment
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