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Carolina +3 (-120) Green Bay
Reasons why I like the Pathers in this spot.
Carolina's defense is second ranked in the NFL. (depending on which metric you want to use)
Carolina's pass defense will not allow Rodgers to pass at will.
Panthers second in the league in picks, not saying Rodgers will throw multiple picks, but this ain't Lameau.
Panthers have the top ranked pass defense in the NFL regarding yards per attempt, Josh Norman is playing out of his shoes this season, top 3 cornerbacks in the league, he's a interception machine, I don't think Rodgers will go that way.
Not saying Rodgers and Cobb won't get some, I am saying this is a very hostile environment against a very dangeerous defense.
Green Bay's backfield, at best is middle of the pack.
Lacy has been off his game all season, I think he's banged up more than the team lets on, and Starks is OK, he's not elite, not horseshit either.
Together those two are not Stewart and Cam combined, puting it in perspective, Starks and Lacy together have only about 90 rushing yards more than Stewart alone 593/505, then you add in Cam......
But, I don't want to mislead anybody, running the ball is not really Green Bay's game, throwing the ball is, and like I just explained, Carolina is really really good against teams that throw the ball.
Green Bay's defense is not that bad as some people think it is, they are middle of the pack run defense, they are solid with pass defense, not quite St. Louis, or Arizona, or Carolina good, but solid.
It's no secret, Carolina's offense is Cam and Olsen, if GB locks down Olsen Newton need to get Ginn involved.
Carolina should try to get Stewart involved early, you know establish the run to soften up the defense and then go to Olsen and Ginn and all that other bullshit.
Same with Green Bay, Rodgers should not have an easy time throwing today, so maybe GB should establish a ground game early with Starks and Lacy, that's the soft spot of the Panther defense.
OK, I am not going to go and on, you get it, Nasher likes Carolina at home today.
a) Carolina has a better pass defense, much better.
b) Carolina has a better running attack
c) Carolina has a better overall defense.
d) I like home dogs, this (in my opinion) is a great home dog situation. The fans are loud, the Panthers can not let up, Atlanta is right there in the division with them.
e) They are undefeated for a reason.
f) look at how Green Bay has fared against teams with good defenses, yes thet beat Seattle in week 2, however Seahwaks were a train wreck in the first three weeks without Chancellor being all sorts of babyish, and Lynch banged up and on and on.
Denvers defense made Packers cry, Carolina's defense is just about as good.
I'll really like the home dogs here.
I'm on Panthers, I'm expecting the Packer faithful to chime in with "yeah, but Green Bay is this, and Green Bay is that", it's all good, I'm not pissing on and disrespecting everything Packer Green, I admire everything they have done and will do, I'm just saying this is a terrific spot to fade them for one Sunday afternoon.
Now get out there and make some money damn it !
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Originally Posted by sharper2
