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How much is a half point worth in the NBA against the spread?
Lets say I blindly bet on 1000 NBA games against the spread. You could assume that I would win around 50% of them. Lets just assume that I won exactly 500 out of the 1000. Now, lets say I was given an additional half point on all of my wagers. Now how many would you expect that I would have won? What if I was given a full point? How about a point and a half? Thanks in advance.
About 8-9 cents for a half point, depending on total and spread number (numbers 11+ are worth sightly less, as the 1). So, betting -110 blindly with extra half point would be very slightly -EV.
if you were given a half point on every wager, my blind guess would be you would have beaten the juice. i think it's hard to tell not knowing what exactly you had, but i would venture to say you would come out on top of a sharp market like nba.
also, i really don't know shit.
Hey JG. I would only estimate that the extra point would factor in to around 70-80 wagers out of 1000 NBA games. So... you would either win or tie 7-8% more with that extra half point.
Of course there are a lot more variables to the formula...
1. I would imagine those 1000 games are from your "normal" wagering patterns. And would be made over 3-4 years... not just 1-2 years?
2. Are we talking about opening lines for that extra half point? Or closing lines with that extra half point?
I honestly don't think it has an advantage. That's just my opinion.
Good Luck.
Gt bets gives you a half point for free.
on every bet?Originally Posted by vividjohn45
Gt bets is reliable and fast on payout also. Sbr rated b book.
two teams a day. You can change out teams every day
Jj said they are good for 1k. I got 1300 off them. Within a.week. check delivered by fed ex costs 40 bux. Deposit it in night deposit of your bank. Bank will call you..saying it its a international check. And they have to run it through collections. But it takes. A couple days to clear.
Last edited by vividjohn45; 01-26-15 at 12:53 AM.
I'm not disparaging them, but if someone knows what they're doing then I can't see that going on for too long for that particular player
Its been that way for a year
I think most books will run off the long term winners. Depending on wager size.
good point, but this isn't the kind of promotion that will attract the average rec bettor.
Well. They are good within a certain range anyway. Im happy with 1300. If theyvwill let me cash 1300 3 or 4 x a year. Id be happy with that book. They dont have poker though. And im focused on poker right now. And one or two sports bets a day.
Last edited by vividjohn45; 01-26-15 at 01:20 AM.
Right on vividjohn you get yours
07-10-14 06:24 PM #26
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Originally Posted by Miz
You are correct. I assumed an 8% chance just for arguments sake.
Miz no Basketball point in any league is worth even close to 8%. Most push rates in basketball are about 4% on sides give or take.
That seems really high to me. I was going to guess around 2% or maybe 3% max. So, if I won 500 out of 1000 but I was given an additional half point I figured I would go maybe 525-475 at best.
The 1000 games would be played over several years but that's mostly irrelevant. If I wagered on every single NBA game during the regular season(1230 games) and I was given a half point after the line closed how much would it increase my percentage? Lets assume that out of the 1230 games that I would have won exactly 615 before given the additional half point. I think a half point would increase my percentage by around 2%. Maybe 3% at the most. And yes... I am talking about the closing line.
Thanks for the input so far. Anyone else have an answer?
Not all half-points are created equal
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/bett...nt-calculator/
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People who nominated: KVB
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On/Off 7 is worth most in nba.
I nominated LT's post but haven't used that calculator in ages.
I have 2 pts. with the highest push rate, making it the most expensive to get on or off. Costs upwards of 10 cents in my figures.
For 7 I have a cost of 8 cents. I have 4 other numbers under 15 points (incuding 2) with slightly higher push rates....three of those at 9 cents.
edit...just checked the online calulator. Tis different than some of my results. Has anyone checked the reliability of that calc? Numbers are close, but still different.
LT chime in..
edit II: forgot we can enter our own push percentages....lol
Last edited by KVB; 01-26-15 at 06:45 PM. Reason: checked my results vs calulator
I like 7 2 3 5 4/6 8/9 etc in that order (not sure where to place 1, maybe between 10 and 11)
Last edited by RonPaul2008; 01-26-15 at 06:55 PM.
Different push percentages for different number of points. So not easy to generalize that here.
In fact many half points are -EV, so you gotta factor that in.
Yup, stated this for 15 years on forums........
I prefer 7-2-5-3
I was debating that one, so you might be right. Also unsure if 6 is better then 4 or not.
This is what I was wondering about.I nominated LT's post but haven't used that calculator in ages.
I have 2 pts. with the highest push rate, making it the most expensive to get on or off. Costs upwards of 10 cents in my figures.
For 7 I have a cost of 8 cents. I have 4 other numbers under 15 points (incuding 2) with slightly higher push rates....three of those at 9 cents.
edit...just checked the online calulator. Tis different than some of my results. Has anyone checked the reliability of that calc? Numbers are close, but still different.
LT chime in..
edit II: forgot we can enter our own push percentages....lol
As LT Profits said... not all half points are created equal. But would it be safe to say that each half point against the spread in the NBA is worth about 2% in the long run?
About 520.
1 should be placed somewhere around where the 20 is. It's crap.
Some guys need to start from scratch....http://www.intensegambling.com/sport...l-half-points/
according to that link 5, 6, 8, 7 are best in that order. Really? Link also states you can buy more then a couple half points on nba at bookmaker and you can only buy 2 halves.
Last edited by RonPaul2008; 01-27-15 at 05:38 PM.
I would assume this thread was made just to get an idea for your return on a book that gave you free half points either way. Not just buying points etc.
I thought about going to one of those books etc. But, not knowing the payout feedback... and also... will they cap you on those half point wagers... is it worth it???
That's why I posted it's not really worth it to me. But if there was a solid book that didn't cap you... and they paid out quickly... it does give you some value. Not a ton... but some.
But honestly... if a book gives you -105 for a basketball game...
And the other gives you -110 and a free half point either way...
What would be your call???
You'd stick with the -105 book.
The difference in numbers is irrelevant because your 1000 games will average out to about 2%. I'll say it again that betting into 20cent lines in the nba is nothing short of burning money.
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