NFL Public Betting & Money Percentages

[willkur23]

Hi!

I asked this same question last year, but I’ll try again.

A few years ago, William Hill used to post their NFL public betting and money percentages on Twitter. Unfortunately, they stopped doing that in recent years.

I’m trying to find something similar now, a sportsbook that shares its betting splits. I’ve come across some “services” like Action Network that provide these stats, but I’m wondering how legitimate they are. How exactly do they get their information? Do the sportsbooks provide it to them?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/nfl/public-betting-trends/

[willkur23]

https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/nf...etting-trends/

Thank you! Do you happen to know how exactly they get their stats?

[Ian]

Sportsbook.ag has them. I don't know if their numbers are accurate or not, but they have them.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thank you! Do you happen to know how exactly they get their stats?

You bet, Wilk:
1) I'm not so sure about accuracy or source.
2) There used to be better sites.
3) It's a very good question/topic.
...We used to have good discussion here on NFL Contrarian picks. Actually had a good run of success. I'm convinced that contrarian handicapping is a good method for NFL.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Merril does a decent job of running down the Public sides.
...FYI: I really don't like his analysis. But his info is pretty good.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Merril's video:

PUBLIC>>>>>Contrarian sides:
DEN>>>>>Tenn
Pitt>>>>>JETS
JAX>>>>>Carolina
Cinn>>>>CLEV
Ariz>>>>>NEW ORL

Bonus (Public Dog):
Det>>>>>GBAY

[willkur23]

Will check it out. Thank you!

[SBR Andy]

DraftKings NFL Sunday Week 1 betting insights:

[willkur23]

DraftKings NFL Sunday Week 1 betting insights:

Thank you! Hmm, a lot of money on Bengals??

[SBR Andy]

BetMGM betting splits for NFL Week 1:

[willkur23]

BetMGM betting splits for NFL Week 1:

Do they post it somewhere on the site?

[stevenash]

Good intel, Andy, thanks for that.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

BetMGM betting splits for NFL Week 1:

Thx, Andy. Feel like this is useful info.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

This is a great thread. Thx for the contributions.

One note (re: post 6). Merril's video is good. But I disagree with him on one point:
*Merril talks about these lines getting FATTER on the contrarian side by end of week.
...I disagree with that. Line-moves aren't that obvious.
...Some of the CONTRARIAN sides move in the opposite direction.

[willkur23]

Now, if we could also get statistics on which sportsbook is receiving the most tickets and money, that would be very valuable.

Here’s an example of why I’m asking specifically for stats directly from the sportsbooks rather than from services like Action Network: they showed the Raiders with 80%+ of both tickets and money, but that’s not true - at least not at BetMGM.

Andy, thanks again! Could you please clarify where exactly you get your stats from? Are they publicly available? If not, would it be possible for you to share them weekly, ideally at least an hour before the games begin?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Merril's video:

PUBLIC>>>>>Contrarian sides:
DEN>>>>>Tenn
Pitt>>>>>JETS
JAX>>>>>Carolina
Cinn>>>>CLEV
Ariz>>>>>NEW ORL

Bonus (Public Dog):
Det>>>>>GBAY

I think this info was pretty good. Two caveats (and some ties to Wilk's note):
1) Public info is not absolute. It depends on the specific book.
...Take JAX/Carol as an example. I'm not sure. Carolina did get action on some sites.

2) I hate Merril's view on Public sides projecting future line moves.
...Doesn't work that way at all. Sometimes goes the other way, as bettors identify value.

3) These are tight markets. Price on your ticket matters.
...Den/Tenn ATS win was based on your ticket. Landed close to the #.
...Saints were a tough one. Unless you bought the hook, your +6.5 went up in smoke.

[SBR Andy]

Now, if we could also get statistics on which sportsbook is receiving the most tickets and money, that would be very valuable.

Here’s an example of why I’m asking specifically for stats directly from the sportsbooks rather than from services like Action Network: they showed the Raiders with 80%+ of both tickets and money, but that’s not true - at least not at BetMGM.

Andy, thanks again! Could you please clarify where exactly you get your stats from? Are they publicly available? If not, would it be possible for you to share them weekly, ideally at least an hour before the games begin?

Yes a couple of sportsbooks send them to us, DraftKings and BetMGM most consistently. I will try to post that when they come through.

The BetMGM one I got from X, the account BetMGMNews posts the betting splits - https://x.com/BetMGMNews