Sitting on a $1.2M payout if Zverev/Keys win the AO with no cashout safety net

[2Sweeet]

She loses you have a ton of equity. The problem is how much money you have on hand and how much you can get down at -places.

[Doug tushyterror]

If I knew Dougie better I would help him out if needed.. I have a lot of btc U could hedge offshore for sure. It be a shame not to make something off of this.

For some reason I think it goes 1 of 2 ways. Either Saba/Sinner repeat or Keys/Z win their 1st Slam. That's why I'm more than willing to let this ride if Keys wins tmrw. Also why I desperately wanted Shelton to pull the upset cuz I could've just risked my available 46k on him to get back over 100k & let the 1.2M ride.

[2Sweeet]

They will only give me $5,700 on that parlay. I understand that a split kills you. I'd hedge something first match though for something. Then if Sabelenka loses you are in the Drivers seat if she wins u make something at least.

[Doug tushyterror]

Another ? is even if u had the money how much would they allow you to bet on Sinner or Sabalenka. My max bet on Sabalenka is 69k to parlay Sinner and Sabalenka they are saying only 5,700.

22.8k doesn't even get back 17k & this isn't even remotely safe if it's a split.

[2Sweeet]

If I knew Dougie better I would help him out if needed.. I have a lot of btc U could hedge offshore for sure. It be a shame not to make something off of this.

[Doug tushyterror]

Your too crazy doug

Good luck and send me a K if u win this

Thanks JV
That's more than doable

[Easy-Rider 66]

Your too crazy doug

Good luck and send me a K if u win this

LOL

[johnnyvegas13]

Your too crazy doug

Good luck and send me a K if u win this

[mjsuax13]

Another ? is even if u had the money how much would they allow you to bet on Sinner or Sabalenka. My max bet on Sabalenka is 69k to parlay Sinner and Sabalenka they are saying only 5,700.

That’s true. If I’m ever in a hedge situation they max it out low on the hedge to end up with jack shit compared to the win.

[2Sweeet]

Another ? is even if u had the money how much would they allow you to bet on Sinner or Sabalenka. My max bet on Sabalenka is 69k to parlay Sinner and Sabalenka they are saying only 5,700.

[Doug tushyterror]

So tell us ahead of time how you are hedging.

I contacted support to see if they're gonna offer a cashout & they said they'd get back to me but rn I'm not seeing any viable option to hedge unless Keys wins & then it's barely worth it. Without a cashout these are my shitty options:
1)I could move 50k out ASAP but would have to do the other 50k the next day which might not even hit my account till Sunday since the full 104k takes 2 to 4 days.
2) Basically, you're taking about 50k +46k (if Keys wins) so 96k at -295 to win $32,560 if Sinner wins. That's only if I reload the 50k rn & it hits my account in time. My only viable option is Keys winning & being offered a cashout cuz everything I just laid out isn't doable.

[mjsuax13]

Solid advice as always mj but I hate even fantasizing about this considering it's still a longshot. I just contacted support raising the cashout issue & they said they'll contact me with an answer.

Totally agree buddy. One step at a time. As always- I’ll be cheering for you. Let us know what they say.

[Doug tushyterror]

You’d need to talk to an accountant/tax person.
My recommendation would be that along with- keeping as much money in nest egg/HYSA after you secure your place to live. $100k bankroll keeps you doing what you enjoy. I like keeping the investment strategy simple as well. I have a business, homes, stocks, savings, etc… and the investment I take the most comfort in is my professionally managed fidelity GO account. It provides returns and is less volatile.

Solid advice as always mj but I hate even fantasizing about this considering it's still a longshot. I just contacted support raising the cashout issue & they said they'll contact me with an answer.

[2Sweeet]

So tell us ahead of time how you are hedging.

[ARCHIVADO98]

300k is what you may see after Keys wins match and Zverev is up a break in the first

[mjsuax13]

Might as well discuss the plan if by some cosmic miracle this hits since the fantasy still has hope. Assuming I do nothing but wait on these outcomes, my balance would be $1,242,713. I'd leave exactly 100k in & WD the rest. 1M would go in to either a Vanguard or Fidelity S&P 500 ETF which returns over 13% on avg over 5 yrs. I'd put the rest in my HYSA to get it to 250k. Just imagine, needing just 2 more doable outcomes to legit be set for life.
1)1M as a nest egg
2)250k in a HYSA to cover moving/living expenses
3)100k to bet with & if & when I lose that, I'd legit never reload again.

You’d need to talk to an accountant/tax person.
My recommendation would be that along with- keeping as much money in nest egg/HYSA after you secure your place to live. $100k bankroll keeps you doing what you enjoy. I like keeping the investment strategy simple as well. I have a business, homes, stocks, savings, etc… and the investment I take the most comfort in is my professionally managed fidelity GO account. It provides returns and is less volatile.

[Doug tushyterror]

They should want to get out now! Maybe not. I don’t know enough about cashout odds. $100k would be nice. Tennis feels very unpredictable to me but I also don’t bet it or follow it. If it hits- invest and don’t look back.

Might as well discuss the plan if by some cosmic miracle this hits since the fantasy still has hope. Assuming I do nothing but wait on these outcomes, my balance would be $1,242,713. I'd leave exactly 100k in & WD the rest. 1M would go in to either a Vanguard or Fidelity S&P 500 ETF which returns over 13% on avg over 5 yrs. I'd put the rest in my HYSA to get it to 250k. Just imagine, needing just 2 more doable outcomes to legit be set for life.
1)1M as a nest egg
2)250k in a HYSA to cover moving/living expenses
3)100k to bet with & if & when I lose that, I'd legit never reload again.

[mjsuax13]

Thanks fellas. Nothing so far, you'd think at least 50k despite needing 2 somewhat doable outcomes. If Keys wins, it should be in the 300k range since that's only 25% of 1.2M with Sinner in the -300 range. These were the cashouts before Keys beat Iga (beyond atrocious) & have been suspended ever since.

They should want to get out now! Maybe not. I don’t know enough about cashout odds. $100k would be nice. Tennis feels very unpredictable to me but I also don’t bet it or follow it. If it hits- invest and don’t look back.

[Doug tushyterror]

GL Douglas. stay safe

Get em! Probably will end up offering something for a cashout.

Thanks fellas. Nothing so far, you'd think at least 50k despite needing 2 somewhat doable outcomes. If Keys wins, it should be in the 300k range since that's only 25% of 1.2M with Sinner in the -300 range. These were the cashouts before Keys beat Iga (beyond atrocious) & have been suspended ever since.

[mjsuax13]

Get em! Probably will end up offering something for a cashout.

[Easy-Rider 66]

GL Douglas. stay safe

[Doug tushyterror]

Made the 1st 169k parlay before Keys beat Svitolina & the other 2 right after. It's miraculous this even has a chance with Keys saving a MP vs Iga & Zverev beating a compromised Novak but that's where the lucky breaks end since Sinner & Saba made the Finals. I don't see a viable way of hedging this for any kind of decent profit if Keys wins needing Zverev. I did do a partial 2k BB hedge on Novak & Keys to get back the 10k I put into these if Keys were to win. Even if she does my balance would be 46k & risking it all on Sinner (currently -295) would only get back about 15.6k. Just don't understand why they wouldn't offer a cashout if it came down to just needing Zverev to reduce their exposure on a 1.2M payout.