(NFL 2024) Contrarian plays - Week 06

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Link to last week:

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-talk/3743826-nfl-2024-contrarian-plays-week-05-a.html

Week 05: 1-2 ATS
ytd: 8-4 ATS (.667)

Thanks to anyone contributing in here. Have seen some good opinions/info.

1) List a side (or Total) you're playing.

2) Quote a current line.

3) In 2 or 3 sentences, briefly state your case for Fading a team and Backing the opponent based on Public Perception.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Playing: 276 TENN TITANS +1 (-110)

...Fading: Colts. Backing: Titans.
...Not much meat on this bone. Playing the Titans as a razor-thin one-point dog.
...Titans opened the season with the bizarre loss @Chi. Almost impossible to lose there given the boxscore stats.
...Colts have some injuries. Looks like Richardson will miss again this week.
...Basis of my play ties to the QB perceptions. So many Fantasy FB players are also bettors now. They seem to have no problem backing Flacco as a Road Fav.
...What's not to like? Flacco played well last year, and his stats are good again this year. Problem is that Flacco (age 39) should be fading away, as Will Levis is coming into his prime.
...Colts are an easy team to back. Hard for bettors to back the mistake-prone Levis. Titans come off the bye week, I feel like the line is flipped in this game.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Playing: 276 TENN TITANS +1 (-110)

...Fading: Colts. Backing: Titans.
...Not much meat on this bone. Playing the Titans as a razor-thin one-point dog.
...Titans opened the season with the bizarre loss @Chi. Almost impossible to lose there given the boxscore stats.
...Colts have some injuries. Looks like Richardson will miss again this week.
...Basis of my play ties to the QB perceptions. So many Fantasy FB players are also bettors now. They seem to have no problem backing Flacco as a Road Fav.
...What's not to like? Flacco played well last year, and his stats are good again this year. Problem is that Flacco (age 39) should be fading away, as Will Levis is coming into his prime.
...Colts are an easy team to back. Hard for bettors to back the mistake-prone Levis. Titans come off the bye week, I feel like the line is flipped in this game.

Colt injuries apparently influenced the line. Titans now -2.5.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/41704950/sources-colts-wr-michael-pittman-back-miss-multiple-weeks

[Tomatero]

Colt injuries apparently influenced the line. Titans now -2.5.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...multiple-weeks

Nice pick, good luck amigo ��

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Nice pick, good luck amigo ��

Thx, Toma. Saw that you're on the Seahawks. I'm on them, too.

I spent a good bit of time studying that game. A few things I found (that most people will miss):

1) The SF punter net avg is way down. Allowing too many Punt Return yards.
...Did SF run out of $$ to pay special teams guys?

2) I mentioned the Moody injury. Not one TV analyst has mentioned that this week.
...Seahawks will decidedly have the better Punter and Kicker going into this game.

3) I saw that the Niners are way down on Average Starting Field Position.
...Niners are playing on the long field, and Opponents start of short fields (too often).

I see Niner problems. Good Luck with the play!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Bump. I do like the Titans in this game. But the # has moved.
...I normally don't bet a team at < peak-value. Especially when it's flipped Dog to Fav. So, do as you see fit.

Would like to hear any other Contrarian opinions. This weekly thread has generated good info in the past.

[Tomatero]

Hopefully there weren't any more Contrarian picks this week, what a week!!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Hopefully there weren't any more Contrarian picks this week, what a week!!

Hey, Toma. Only my pick. So, we go a mere 0-1 ATS for the week.

Net losing week (for me) for sure. I guess the good news is that it could have been worse.

Very strange week. I'm waiting to hear some book reports. Public had to crush.

Did the books net to > a 10% loss? Demolition, the Road Favs just dominated ATS. As if those games were over b4 they started.

[Tomatero]

Hey, Toma. Only my pick. So, we go a mere 0-1 ATS for the week.

Net losing week (for me) for sure. I guess the good news is that it could have been worse.

Very strange week. I'm waiting to hear some book reports. Public had to crush.

Did the books net to > a 10% loss? Demolition, the Road Favs just dominated ATS. As if those games were over b4 they started.

The betting public had a huge NFL Sunday. So there's plenty of moneyline parlay liability running to the Bills tonight.

Jets outright is a big need in MNF.


"A Bills victory would result in the worst week of NFL I've ever seen here."


– ZachALucas, director of retail sports, TwinSpires Sportsbook

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thank you, Toma! Yes, those scores were as if someone knew the Finals.

So many tickets had to cash. ATS parlays, Moneyline Fav parlays, any Fav teased down etc.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

The betting public had a huge NFL Sunday. So there's plenty of moneyline parlay liability running to the Bills tonight.

Jets outright is a big need in MNF.


"A Bills victory would result in the worst week of NFL I've ever seen here."


– ZachALucas, director of retail sports, TwinSpires Sportsbook

Toma, there it is, amazing! NFL Road Favs go 10-0 SU/ATS (if you count Indy as the early-week Road Fav).

If you exclude Indy, that's still 9-0. Any parlay or ML parlay that tied up Road Favs cashed.

The NFL Home Dog bettor is ringing a bell while standing next to a Salvation Army bin at Kmart tonite.

[Tomatero]

More from behind the counter, after Bills' win and cover wraps up a huge NFL betting weekend for the masses.

"With the Bills' win, it's like we have PIN-less ATMs at our sportsbooks. Everyone is cashing out."


– @ZachALucas, director of retail sports, TwinSpires Sportsbook

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Week 06: 0-1 ATS
ytd: 8-5 ATS (.615)