(NFL 2024) Contrarian plays - Week 05

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Link to Week 04:

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-talk/3743484-nfl-2024-contrarian-plays-week-04-a.html

ytd = 7-2 ATS (.778)

Thanks to anyone contributing in here. Have seen some good opinions/info.

1) List a side (or Total) you're playing.

2) Quote a current line.

3) In 2 or 3 sentences, briefly state your case for Fading a team and Backing the opponent based on Public Perception.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Playing 302 ATLANTA -1.5

...Think this one qualifies. Backing the Falcons.
...Injuries on both sides, which is standard in the NFL. Biggest reservation might be Cousins' health. Is he playing thru an injury that inhibits him?
...That said, I'm playing it. Bucs look like a Public Dog. I'd put an asterisk on their win @Det and their win versus an injury-ravaged Eagle team.
...Go back to pre-season. Think about how hyped up ATL was. Falcons were the clear Division favorite.
...ATL Strength of Schedule was pretty high in the first four games. Schedule gets lighter the rest of the way. This is a critical game, and we're laying a short price.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Another win on these. Admittedly, this one came from nowhere. Very lucky.

[Tomatero]

Playing 302 ATLANTA -1.5

...Think this one qualifies. Backing the Falcons.
...Injuries on both sides, which is standard in the NFL. Biggest reservation might be Cousins' health. Is he playing thru an injury that inhibits him?
...That said, I'm playing it. Bucs look like a Public Dog. I'd put an asterisk on their win @Det and their win versus an injury-ravaged Eagle team.
...Go back to pre-season. Think about how hyped up ATL was. Falcons were the clear Division favorite.
...ATL Strength of Schedule was pretty high in the first four games. Schedule gets lighter the rest of the way. This is a critical game, and we're laying a short price.

Cheers buddy ��

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Cheers buddy ��

Thx, Toma. We need all the luck we can get.

[str]

Sometimes you look back and wonder how you possibly won or lost an event.

I have to think they even out but it's the losses that seem to stick with you the longest.

Nice hit. Save it for a tough loss down the road.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Sometimes you look back and wonder how you possibly won or lost an event.

I have to think they even out but it's the losses that seem to stick with you the longest.

Nice hit. Save it for a tough loss down the road.

Absolutely, str. I don't FEEL good about that pick at all. You think about the percentages down the home stretch. Especially laying -1.5. The David INT (instead of knock-down) may have actually saved my bet.

An incompletion would have saved yards and set up a short FG. The Moneyline tickets were more live. My -1.5 was very fortunate.

Sort of like you on the horses, I could reference a long list of Bad Beats and Suckouts. The Bad Beats surely sting twice as much as the Suckouts feel good. But I am honest about the variance.

One sequence comes to mind today, and I'll post it here. If you go back about 24 years Syracuse had a QB named Troy Nunes. Not the best QB, but not bad. He was involved in both my Worst Beat and Biggest Suckout.

I'll pull up the dates later. This is all from memory:
*Worst Beat was Syracuse +5 as Home Dog vs MICHIGAN.
...Tight game, Syracuse is hanging tough. SYRA is down 3 in last few minutes of the game. Ball on own 30, trying to drive for a score.
...Nunes had good mobility. He's getting pressured, he scrambles back. He's zig-zagging and keeps going. He's 35 yards behind the line of scrimmage, throws the ball away. Safety, 18-13 final lands on 5.

Nunes was also the QB on one of my biggest suckouts. I bet Syracuse -5 home vs Pitt.
...Syracuse is playing well, they're up 8 in the 4th qtr.
...SYRA misses a FG, still up 8. I comment that this isn't a bad thing. Pitt still needs a TD, sort of avoids the backdoor cover versus soft coverage.
...Pitt orchestrates a good drive. They do score and get the 2. To Overtime, where -5 is going to need help.
...On this day BOTH kickers were struggling. I believe each kicker missed two Field Goals in OT. So, I dodge the 3. In possibly the 3rd or 4th OT, SYRA finally scores a TD and wins by 6.

[edawg]

The Clowns +3.5

[ChuckyTheGoat]

The Clowns +3.5

Clev Browns +3.5 for edawg.
...I'm hoping that they get some guys cleared to come back, edawg.
...Good Luck on the play.

[Tomatero]

Panters +4.5 - 115 too many points fav Bears.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Panters +4.5 - 115 too many points fav Bears.

Toma, marking you down for Carol +4 to put it on 11/10. Good Luck on the Panthers.