True fact ?

[texhooper]

Appreciate the positivity and recognition good luck this football season.

You too my guy. “It all turns around during football season” right. Famous annual words

[jamesrav]

Of the 2 guys in particular I am thinking of, the work put in was a lot. Hours of handicapping, reviewing film, watching warmups, lots of notes, and watching payouts to properly construct tickets. They were very good, but what a tough job with absurd hours sometimes.
The inside information is weak at best, and they know it. You would be amazed at how consistently poor it can be. Horse trainers by and large are typically terrible bettors from my experience.
Ticket construction is rarely well thought out.
The inside info is the most overrated aspect In horse betting IMO. Honestly, it is not what you would think in terms of accuracy.

If not inside info, how else to account for huge moves in last second betting at the minor US tracks? I often see a favorite go from 2/1 (27% of win pool) to 3/5 (51%) once the race begins. The Betfair traders 'know' this is going to happen in advance (they arrive at the eventual odds a couple minutes before race time, after which time there's little movement) , the US bettors by and large do not. It seemingly has to be this aptly named 'Elite Group' betting syndicate affiliated with Stronach pumping in that last second money since they now account for a huge portion of the daily handle for US tracks (without their input, horse racing would not be in a good place right now). 'Smart Money is Late Money' is a proven concept in horse race betting, and to me 'smart money' means they know something others do not. If their inside info with respect to favorites means they can 'almost' break even making such bets, the 10% rebate guarantees huge profits.

[str]

Alan Woods link
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Woods_(gambler)

In my last post , one of the two guys I mentioned was an economist. The other a former trainer who was strong in math.

[DrunkHorseplayer]

If not inside info, how else to account for huge moves in last second betting at the minor US tracks? I often see a favorite go from 2/1 (27% of win pool) to 3/5 (51%) once the race begins. The Betfair traders 'know' this is going to happen in advance (they arrive at the eventual odds a couple minutes before race time, after which time there's little movement) , the US bettors by and large do not. It seemingly has to be this aptly named 'Elite Group' betting syndicate affiliated with Stronach pumping in that last second money since they now account for a huge portion of the daily handle for US tracks (without their input, horse racing would not be in a good place right now). 'Smart Money is Late Money' is a proven concept in horse race betting, and to me 'smart money' means they know something others do not. If their inside info with respect to favorites means they can 'almost' break even making such bets, the 10% rebate guarantees huge profits.

It has nothing to do with inside info. The cockroaches who do this use sophisticated computer programs to handicap, engage in batch betting and only win because of the huge rebates available to volume bettors. The poster who stated that inside info is hit or miss and that some trainers are terrible bettors is absolutely correct.

[str]

If not inside info, how else to account for huge moves in last second betting at the minor US tracks? I often see a favorite go from 2/1 (27% of win pool) to 3/5 (51%) once the race begins. The Betfair traders 'know' this is going to happen in advance (they arrive at the eventual odds a couple minutes before race time, after which time there's little movement) , the US bettors by and large do not. It seemingly has to be this aptly named 'Elite Group' betting syndicate affiliated with Stronach pumping in that last second money since they now account for a huge portion of the daily handle for US tracks (without their input, horse racing would not be in a good place right now). 'Smart Money is Late Money' is a proven concept in horse race betting, and to me 'smart money' means they know something others do not. If their inside info with respect to favorites means they can 'almost' break even making such bets, the 10% rebate guarantees huge profits.

Couple of things. The wisest bettors almost always bet late. Obviously the CAW's are well ahead as well. Combine all that and you have late money really affecting pools.
The "inside info", from all my experience is NOT a groom or trainer saying the horse is going to win or is drugged up or pulled the last three races, or whatever, it is the probability and statistics information that those that are in CAW's or are on their own professionals, not recreational players, have, that give them the edge.
When you look at the form, a pro sees things that are right there for the recreational player to see, but the non pros do not know how to form the full picture that as well as the pro.
It's not a knock on anyone, more a salute to the pros that truly see things amateur's do not.

When I look at the Stock Market thread, Slurry Pumper or Raiders in the bitcoin thread, as well as others, say things that sound like Chinese to me. Why? Because I have no education in those fields. I do not play them. Never have.
But when I mention things in my Questions and answers thread in horse racing, posters say I see things in the same form much differently than they do. And I better. If you don't spend 1/2 your life doing the same thing everyday and know more than the recreational players, than you are lacking in your field.
I hope that makes sense.

[jamesrav]

Couple of things. The wisest bettors almost always bet late. Obviously the CAW's are well ahead as well. Combine all that and you have late money really affecting pools.
The "inside info", from all my experience is NOT a groom or trainer saying the horse is going to win or is drugged up or pulled the last three races, or whatever, it is the probability and statistics information that those that are in CAW's or are on their own professionals, not recreational players, have, that give them the edge.
When you look at the form, a pro sees things that are right there for the recreational player to see, but the non pros do not know how to form the full picture that as well as the pro.
It's not a knock on anyone, more a salute to the pros that truly see things amateur's do not.

When I look at the Stock Market thread, Slurry Pumper or Raiders in the bitcoin thread, as well as others, say things that sound like Chinese to me. Why? Because I have no education in those fields. I do not play them. Never have.
But when I mention things in my Questions and answers thread in horse racing, posters say I see things in the same form much differently than they do. And I better. If you don't spend 1/2 your life doing the same thing everyday and know more than the recreational players, than you are lacking in your field.
I hope that makes sense.

I certainly appreciate the wisdom of your lengthy experience in horse racing and couldn't be happier that 'inside info' plays little or no role at all in final odds. Most of the academic articles on horse racing mention 'informed bettor' (such as you, or the CAW pros, or anyone who does serious handicapping) and 'insider' when discussing those who have an advantage over un-educated bettors that make up The Crowd. So they may just be passing on beliefs that have become gospel even if they have no basis in fact.

But it cant be denied that in some sports (NCAA basketball/football primarily) there are paid informants who monitor team players for any potentially useful info for bettors that might not be publicly available. Why wouldn't the same be true for horse racing? The Stronach Group owns:

Race tracks

• Santa Anita Park, Arcadia, California. Acquired in December 1998 for $126 million.
• Gulfstream Park, Hallandale Beach, Florida. Acquired in September 1999 for $95 million.
• Golden Gate Fields, Albany, California. ...
• Laurel Park Racecourse, Laurel, Maryland. ...
• Rosecroft Raceway, Fort Washington, Maryland.

(Golden Gate closing next year)

and they are actively involved in this massive betting syndicate named the 'Elite Group'. So I think its safe to say they are not lacking in the info department when it comes to individual horses and whether they may (currently) be stronger than their past performances might indicate.

[str]

I certainly appreciate the wisdom of your lengthy experience in horse racing and couldn't be happier that 'inside info' plays little or no role at all in final odds. Most of the academic articles on horse racing mention 'informed bettor' (such as you, or the CAW pros, or anyone who does serious handicapping) and 'insider' when discussing those who have an advantage over un-educated bettors that make up The Crowd. So they may just be passing on beliefs that have become gospel even if they have no basis in fact.

But it cant be denied that in some sports (NCAA basketball/football primarily) there are paid informants who monitor team players for any potentially useful info for bettors that might not be publicly available. Why wouldn't the same be true for horse racing? The Stronach Group owns:

Race tracks

• Santa Anita Park, Arcadia, California. Acquired in December 1998 for $126 million.
• Gulfstream Park, Hallandale Beach, Florida. Acquired in September 1999 for $95 million.
• Golden Gate Fields, Albany, California. ...
• Laurel Park Racecourse, Laurel, Maryland. ...
• Rosecroft Raceway, Fort Washington, Maryland.

(Golden Gate closing next year)

and they are actively involved in this massive betting syndicate named the 'Elite Group'. So I think it’s safe to say they are not lacking in the info department when it comes to individual horses and whether they may (currently) be stronger than their past performances might indicate.

It makes me sad that a track owner can be allowed to bet in CAW’s. What a terrible look for the game. But I gave up thinking that that ownership cared about Md. a long time ago.
Why is it allowed? No oversight of the owners like a commissioner in the NFL for instance.
Fans that are passionate about the game can’t possibly be ok with that setup.
But here we are. Personally, I think it should be banned. Most of that money would find itself back in the pools anyway.
The casual fans are getting stepped on IMO and that is bad for the game and the fans. But I am on the respect for the game side not win at all costs , fair or not side.
I’m sorry it is allowed in the form that exists.
I think you have every right to be upset. It’s a bad situation IMO.