NBA Futures - Division/Conference/Champion

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  • ChuckyTheGoat
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 04-04-11
    • 37171

    #1
    NBA Futures - Division/Conference/Champion
    Post any thoughts in here. Thanks.

    Will append any picks I make to my Main pick thread.
    Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
  • ChuckyTheGoat
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 04-04-11
    • 37171

    #2
    Huge game this week: 4/10 MINN @Denver.
    Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
    Comment
    • ChuckyTheGoat
      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
      • 04-04-11
      • 37171

      #3
      1* MINN Twolves to win the WESTERN Conf (9.42). 1 to win 8.42.

      ...Huge game in Denver. The Division pretty much tilts on that game:
      *If Minn wins that game, their win% goes way up. I'd rate them as at least 25% if they lock up the 1-seed.
      *And I still think they can win the West w/o the 1-seed. I don't view Denver as hungry after last season.
      Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
      Comment
      • ChuckyTheGoat
        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
        • 04-04-11
        • 37171

        #4
        Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
        1* MINN Twolves to win the WESTERN Conf (9.42). 1 to win 8.42.

        ...Huge game in Denver. The Division pretty much tilts on that game:
        *If Minn wins that game, their win% goes way up. I'd rate them as at least 25% if they lock up the 1-seed.
        *And I still think they can win the West w/o the 1-seed. I don't view Denver as hungry after last season.
        One more ticket to win the West:

        1* Dallas Mavericks to win the Western CONF (12.21). 1 to win 11.21.
        ...This is largely tied to the Clipper injuries. If the Clips go into the playoffs banged up, I give the Mavs every chance to win that 4/5 series.
        Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
        Comment
        • johnnyvegas13
          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
          • 05-21-15
          • 27889

          #5
          Yes Chuck wolves a sharp play

          mavs have no center or inside presence

          u want a deep sleeper in the west dubs or lakers

          i kinda doubt it tho since they r 9 and 10
          Comment
          • veriableodds
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 08-22-17
            • 5093

            #6
            Looked at games today found a few value's.
            memphis/+18.5=6.5 pov(points of value)
            toronto/+11.5=3.5
            san antonio/+17/=10
            clippers/+9.5/=5.5
            my take the good teams are not really playing for anything, why risk injury.
            Comment
            • ChuckyTheGoat
              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
              • 04-04-11
              • 37171

              #7
              Originally posted by johnnyvegas13
              Yes Chuck wolves a sharp play

              mavs have no center or inside presence

              u want a deep sleeper in the west dubs or lakers

              i kinda doubt it tho since they r 9 and 10
              Thx, John. GL.
              Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
              Comment
              • ChuckyTheGoat
                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                • 04-04-11
                • 37171

                #8
                Originally posted by veriableodds
                Looked at games today found a few value's.
                memphis/+18.5=6.5 pov(points of value)
                toronto/+11.5=3.5
                san antonio/+17/=10
                clippers/+9.5/=5.5
                my take the good teams are not really playing for anything, why risk injury.
                Could be, veri. GL.

                I haven't gotten a a feel for the mangy dogs. I will say that the Spur line shocked me. Wemby is getting 5 blocks some nites, guy is dominating games.
                Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                Comment
                • ChuckyTheGoat
                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                  • 04-04-11
                  • 37171

                  #9
                  Originally posted by johnnyvegas13
                  Yes Chuck wolves a sharp play

                  mavs have no center or inside presence

                  u want a deep sleeper in the west dubs or lakers

                  i kinda doubt it tho since they r 9 and 10
                  Thx, John. Respect your opinion.

                  It's the playoffs. You never know.
                  Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                  Comment
                  • ChuckyTheGoat
                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                    • 04-04-11
                    • 37171

                    #10
                    Originally posted by veriableodds
                    Looked at games today found a few value's.
                    memphis/+18.5=6.5 pov(points of value)
                    toronto/+11.5=3.5
                    san antonio/+17/=10
                    clippers/+9.5/=5.5
                    my take the good teams are not really playing for anything, why risk injury.
                    Veri, I agree with your logic. The playoff teams are really tuning up for those games. They don't need to win by 20 tonite.

                    I've been cold as ice. Can't play rated games 2nite. My un-rated Opinions:
                    *Milw +2
                    *Dallas -2.5
                    *Minn +7
                    Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                    Comment
                    • lakerboy
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 04-02-09
                      • 94379

                      #11
                      Twolves have no pedigree. Good luck
                      Comment
                      • johnnyvegas13
                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                        • 05-21-15
                        • 27889

                        #12
                        If suns somehow lose tonight it could open door for lakers 8 seed
                        Comment
                        • ChuckyTheGoat
                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                          • 04-04-11
                          • 37171

                          #13
                          Thx to Veri and Johnny. Appreciate the discussion, men.
                          Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                          Comment
                          • ChuckyTheGoat
                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                            • 04-04-11
                            • 37171

                            #14
                            1) Twolves go down. Not gonna lie. Now looks like a daunting task, as the West goes thru Denver.
                            ...How does someone solve Jokic?
                            ...Still like my chances. In a strange way, this eliminates DALL potentially playing MINN in the Western Semi-Finals.

                            2) Dallas now likely to be the 5-seed. I'm convinced they can beat the Clips.
                            ...What sort of team will the Clips field? Will any guys still be banged up?

                            Sunk cost. Think both have potential.
                            Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                            Comment
                            • veriableodds
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 08-22-17
                              • 5093

                              #15
                              Originally posted by veriableodds
                              Looked at games today found a few value's.
                              memphis/+18.5=6.5 pov(points of value)
                              toronto/+11.5=3.5
                              san antonio/+17/=10
                              clippers/+9.5/=5.5
                              my take the good teams are not really playing for anything, why risk injury.
                              Split rotten egg juice. Veri keep opinions to self.
                              Comment
                              • lakerboy
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 04-02-09
                                • 94379

                                #16
                                Originally posted by lakerboy
                                Twolves have no pedigree. Good luck
                                Exhibit A
                                Last night

                                They get excited winning vs vs Washington. This team just lost to Toronto at home.
                                Comment
                                • ChuckyTheGoat
                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                  • 04-04-11
                                  • 37171

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by veriableodds
                                  Split rotten egg juice. Veri keep opinions to self.
                                  No, man. I appreciate your opinions.

                                  I actually agree with what you're saying. Late-season games are not always one-sided. Different motivations.
                                  Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                  Comment
                                  • ChuckyTheGoat
                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                    • 04-04-11
                                    • 37171

                                    #18
                                    You could be right, Laker. But people could have said the same thing about DENVER going into last year.

                                    I actually think that kept Denver's odds DOWN. When they were clearly the best team in the West.

                                    That loss last nite has to put a damper on MINN. How does Gobert defend Jokic? If Jokic pulls him out of the paint, you lose a great rim-protector.
                                    Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                    Comment
                                    • lakerboy
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 04-02-09
                                      • 94379

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
                                      You could be right, Laker. But people could have said the same thing about DENVER going into last year.

                                      I actually think that kept Denver's odds DOWN. When they were clearly the best team in the West.

                                      That loss last nite has to put a damper on MINN. How does Gobert defend Jokic? If Jokic pulls him out of the paint, you lose a great rim-protector.
                                      Denver went to the conference finals already one time before though right? They were missing Murray for along time after. Minnesota needs to learn a few lessons still.

                                      No one likes the Clippers?
                                      Comment
                                      • ChuckyTheGoat
                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                        • 04-04-11
                                        • 37171

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by lakerboy
                                        Denver went to the conference finals already one time before though right? They were missing Murray for along time after. Minnesota needs to learn a few lessons still.

                                        No one likes the Clippers?
                                        Laker, I think this playoffs is great for divergent opinions. I think it's very tough. My thoughts:

                                        1) I don't think Denver will be as focused as last year. Maybe they prove me wrong.

                                        2) Clippers have a lot of big names. I think them securing HCA over Dallas is significant.

                                        3) I chimed in with the two teams I like: Min/Dall. But I've been wrong 100x in the L30 days.

                                        ...IMHO, OKC/NewOrl are at least a year away.
                                        Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                        Comment
                                        • ChuckyTheGoat
                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                          • 04-04-11
                                          • 37171

                                          #21
                                          Checkout the latest 2023-24 NBA Standing including Conference and Division Standings, Expanding Standings, Team vs Team Stats and more on Basketball-Reference.com


                                          *Bucks get two big wins. Look to be the 2-seed. They looked better in L2 games.

                                          *Knicks have won some games. Have now flipped ORL.

                                          *PHI currently a 7-seed. Considering the games Embiid missed, Sixers are going to be so much lower than expected.
                                          Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                          Comment
                                          • ChuckyTheGoat
                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                            • 04-04-11
                                            • 37171

                                            #22
                                            I like the play-in. But the Bulls/Hawks are going to be some of the scrubbiest playoff teams in memory.

                                            That said, I think they're live. Could see them being live dogs in the play-in games.

                                            Take note about how much lighter the Eastern bubble was compared to the Western bubble.
                                            Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                            Comment
                                            • ChuckyTheGoat
                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                              • 04-04-11
                                              • 37171

                                              #23
                                              Not saying that I'm playing this. But BOSTOn 1.53 to win the East might be value.

                                              Who is going to beat them in 7 games? Knicks could challenge them, but hard to see winning 4 of 7.

                                              BOS bench has been very good. So, they're not in danger of tilting on one injury.
                                              Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                              Comment
                                              • ChuckyTheGoat
                                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                • 04-04-11
                                                • 37171

                                                #24
                                                2* BOSTON: to Win the Eastern Conf (1.54). 2 to win 1.08.

                                                ...This is going to look square. Backing the Favorite. Will get > +50% return if they win.
                                                ...Feel like the balance was tilted to the West. A team like PHX would probably be the 2-seed if they played in the East.
                                                ...The gap from Boston to anyone else in the East is massive. Built a big lead and coasted the L6 weeks.
                                                ...Deep roster. Their bench played great. Team is not subject to injury risk of any one guy going down.
                                                ...I like PHI lining up with the Knicks. Given the Giannis injury, I can't fathom anyone challenging Boston other than the Phi/NYK winner.
                                                ...And if the Eastern Finals = Bos vs Phi/NYK, Boston would be > 80% to win a 7-game series.
                                                Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                                Comment
                                                • budwiser
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 11-22-11
                                                  • 3226

                                                  #25
                                                  yeah just had a conversation about Boston winning the East. I had pretty much the same arguments you had. Great price and they've been dominating.

                                                  -180 looks enticing, or what you had 2 to win 1.08

                                                  But they have as indicated a weakness at center. Porzingis is not going to stop Giannis or Embiid. He doesn't have the strength.

                                                  When they shoot the 3 they're unbeatable. But when they aren't anybody can beat them. Tatum has in the past disappeared at crucial moments in the playoffs, and Brown has a way of continually shooting the ball when he's shooting bricks.

                                                  I'm not saying it won't happen, thought about it myself, but pass.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • budwiser
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 11-22-11
                                                    • 3226

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by lakerboy
                                                    Denver went to the conference finals already one time before though right? They were missing Murray for along time after. Minnesota needs to learn a few lessons still.

                                                    No one likes the Clippers?
                                                    I liked the Clippers until I heard the news about Kawhi. More mystery knee issues. It drives you crazy. We're back in the exact situation as the last 2 years, is he playing, if he plays can he play all game, will he be effective.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • ChuckyTheGoat
                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                      • 04-04-11
                                                      • 37171

                                                      #27
                                                      MIA - Butler ruled out. Another reason to like BOSTON.
                                                      Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                                      Comment
                                                      • ChuckyTheGoat
                                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                        • 04-04-11
                                                        • 37171

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
                                                        One more ticket to win the West:

                                                        1* Dallas Mavericks to win the Western CONF (12.21). 1 to win 11.21.
                                                        ...This is largely tied to the Clipper injuries. If the Clips go into the playoffs banged up, I give the Mavs every chance to win that 4/5 series.
                                                        Mavs/Twolves now a good bit shorter than those prices.

                                                        I do think the reaction to MINN's sweep is a bit much. DENVER only -180 to win that series.
                                                        Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Madison
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 09-16-11
                                                          • 6441

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by lakerboy
                                                          Twolves have no pedigree. Good luck
                                                          Unfortunately this can be very true this time of year. I realize I'm old and tainted by past histories but the ref's will come in to play here at some point to accommodate tv/markets.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • ChuckyTheGoat
                                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                            • 04-04-11
                                                            • 37171

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by Madison
                                                            Unfortunately this can be very true this time of year. I realize I'm old and tainted by past histories but the ref's will come in to play here at some point to accommodate tv/markets.
                                                            Could be. I'd counter that Edwards is now on commercials. One of the top 5 faces in the league.

                                                            The one that someone needs to investigate is the 0-2 Homer. I'm convinced that the refs are instructed to "Gift-wrap the 1st Half to the Homer. Let the 2nd half play out honestly."
                                                            ...Think about how much $$ the NBA loses for each game that's not played. 5-game MIN in most series.
                                                            Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Madison
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 09-16-11
                                                              • 6441

                                                              #31
                                                              .Think about how much $$ the NBA loses for each game that's not played.

                                                              This my friend! All about the $$$
                                                              Comment
                                                              • ChuckyTheGoat
                                                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                • 04-04-11
                                                                • 37171

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by Madison
                                                                .Think about how much $$ the NBA loses for each game that's not played.

                                                                This my friend! All about the $$$
                                                                For sure. Go back to the SAC/Lak game from many years ago.

                                                                The NBA couldn't have the Lakers go out in 6. The FT disparity was like 8/1. Many phantom fouls, NBA couldn't forego the revenue of a Game 7.
                                                                Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                                                Comment
                                                                • johnnyvegas13
                                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                  • 05-21-15
                                                                  • 27889

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
                                                                  For sure. Go back to the SAC/Lak game from many years ago.

                                                                  The NBA couldn't have the Lakers go out in 6. The FT disparity was like 8/1. Many phantom fouls, NBA couldn't forego the revenue of a Game 7.
                                                                  Chuck this is like half of nba playoffs series

                                                                  get ready starting next round and remember this
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • ChuckyTheGoat
                                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                    • 04-04-11
                                                                    • 37171

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by johnnyvegas13
                                                                    Chuck this is like half of nba playoffs series

                                                                    get ready starting next round and remember this
                                                                    John, that one jumped off the page. I do think it happens.

                                                                    DAL/Clip, does the NBA need this one to go SEVEN? Clips could win tonite, especially if Gafford is dinged up.
                                                                    Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • ChuckyTheGoat
                                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                      • 04-04-11
                                                                      • 37171

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Also, on THIS ROUND:

                                                                      *The NBA is doing much much better by Phi/NYK and Mil/Ind going to 6+ games.
                                                                      Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                                                      Comment
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