Coll FB plays - Wave #2

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Play #1 = 314 VIRGINIA +6 (1.93). 100 to win 93.

Hard to find a lot to like with the Cavs. They are off a bad year, which ended with a terrible shooting tragedy. Chance to Buy Low, IMHO.

James Madison in 2nd year at the FBS level. I see one glaring weakness, the QB position.
...Last year, veteran Centeio (64%) was the main driver of their early success.
...Centeio's departure has left a gap at that position. The QB position is still unsettled, and they only completed 50% versus a FCS foe last week.

I wouldn't read too much into VA game at TENN. That's a gulf in class. Good news is that VA didn't give up long TDs vs TENN, more equitable matchup this week.

Chance to grab a Class Edge home dog, even if said dog has fleas. First home game since the shooting incident, I'm sure there will be a tribute to the victims. Maybe some extra adrenaline.

As for how VA might win this game? They don't figure to score many points. But I do like the VA Defensive Line. They will look to harass the young JMU quarterbacks. That's their route to victory.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

*Mods, plz move to Coll FB betting Forum, meant to post it there. Your call.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Play #2 = 342 UTSA -10.5 (1.95). 100 to win 95.

Play is based on results from last week:
1) UTSA QB Harris threw three INTs, which contributed to the close loss at Houston.
2) I don't know WTF Baylor was doing. Texas St hit some long plays and came in as a huge dog.

Props to Texas St QB Finley, an Auburn transfer. He came thru in spades to spring the upset.

UTSA is one of the top mid-major programs in the country. This # doesn't appear to reflect reality. Unless Finley has another big game, the -10.5 might look cheap.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Play #3 = 382 BOISE ST +3 (1.95). 100 to win 95.

Looks like a great setup to capture line value. Boise had the much tougher assignment in week one (at Wash). QB Penix had a huge game, he's that good.

I rate Boise as a very solid program. Maybe they can conjure up some of that old Blue Turf magic. Broncos look good to me as the Home Dog.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Play #4 = 324 SAN DIEGO ST +13.5 (1.92). 100 to win 92.

Feel like this is an under-the-radar play for several reasons:
1) I think the early season is the right time to go against UCLA. The departed QB/RB accounted for so much of the production. Transition period in the first few games.
2) Aztecs off a choppy game against an FCS foe. They can do better.
3) A lot to like about the San Diego St program. Since Hoke arrived, he's produced solid defenses and Special Teams. SDSt is not a team that's easily blown out.

Note Jack Browning. He was the All-Conf punter, so I think they'll do well on Field Position. And he's also a very solid Kicker. Browning will help the Aztecs on hidden points.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Play #5 = 394 CAL +7 (1.92). 100 to win 92.

This is a matchup and situational play. This was supposed to be a bounceback year for Auburn. They were poor in 2022, and the HC got canned.

I know it looks like they got a walkover vs UMass in the opener. The stat that should be alarming is the 5.0 Yards Per Rush that Auburn conceded to UMass. Auburn's vulnerable rush defense was a problem, and it looks like that hasn't gone away.

In particular, that's going to be a problem against Cal. Ott is one of the most explosive RBs in the country. He ripped for 9.0 YPR in the opener at North Texas.

Also, Cal may have found a QB solution with (another) Finley, the transfer from NC State. With Finley and Ott, Cal may have a balanced offense.

Long-travel spot for Auburn. I'm cautious about going against SEC in Non-Conference. But War Eagle have to prove it to me here.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Play #1 = 314 VIRGINIA +6 (1.93). 100 to win 93.

Hard to find a lot to like with the Cavs. They are off a bad year, which ended with a terrible shooting tragedy. Chance to Buy Low, IMHO.

James Madison in 2nd year at the FBS level. I see one glaring weakness, the QB position.
...Last year, veteran Centeio (64%) was the main driver of their early success.
...Centeio's departure has left a gap at that position. The QB position is still unsettled, and they only completed 50% versus a FCS foe last week.

I wouldn't read too much into VA game at TENN. That's a gulf in class. Good news is that VA didn't give up long TDs vs TENN, more equitable matchup this week.

Chance to grab a Class Edge home dog, even if said dog has fleas. First home game since the shooting incident, I'm sure there will be a tribute to the victims. Maybe some extra adrenaline.

As for how VA might win this game? They don't figure to score many points. But I do like the VA Defensive Line. They will look to harass the young JMU quarterbacks. That's their route to victory.

Play #6 = Adding another unit on 314 VIRGINIA +7 (1.99). 100 to win 99.
...Convinced this is a good play.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Play #7 = 315 Purdue +3 (1.91). 100 to win 91.
...Not sold on this Hokie team.

Feel like Card/Boilers can play better.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Play #8 = NORTHWESTERN +1.5 (1.93). 100 to win 93.

...If you're going to be a Contrarian, this one checks all the boxes. Looks un-touchable.

Coaching change, program in flux. But how can this price be right?

And I know UTEP is pretty good. At least by Mid-Major standards.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Play #3 = 382 BOISE ST +3 (1.95). 100 to win 95.

Looks like a great setup to capture line value. Boise had the much tougher assignment in week one (at Wash). QB Penix had a huge game, he's that good.

I rate Boise as a very solid program. Maybe they can conjure up some of that old Blue Turf magic. Broncos look good to me as the Home Dog.

Play #9 = (another unit) 382 BOISE +3.5 (1.93). 100 to win 93.

Will keep posting plays in this thread, if I like any more games this week.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Play #10 = 350 TULANE +6.5 (2.12). 100 to win 112.

Green Wave off a home run year which was highlighted by the bowl win over USC. I thought they might be ripe in the opener after such a great campaign. They weren't, they soundly beat a good team.

The OFF Line looks solid. Pratt looks sharp. Think we catch a confident team as Home Dog...and the line value looks good.

Part of it is that that Tulane has been so bad for so long. Tulane just doesn't sound right. I think they're legit, go Wave.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Wanted to post one note on the Oreg/TxTech game:

*Note that Bo Nix played the L3 games of last year on a bum-ankle.
...He didn't look too good in those games, b/c his mobility was almost nothing. He did somehow beat Utah when the Utes knew he couldn't run.

Anyway, take that into consideration. He wasn't at full-health in those games. Fast forward to this year, he put up video game numbers in the Opener.

Not telling you which way to go in that game. Just know that Nix is flying out of the gate.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Play #11 = EAST CAROLINA +3 (1.94). 100 to win 94.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Play #12 = 307 (1st Half) Ball St +27 (1.94). 100 to win 94.

*I understand why there is such a big disconnect between the Game line and the 1H number. Logic dictates that Smart will look to secure a comfortable lead before clearing the bench after halftime. I just think it's too wide.

I see some reasons why Ball St can hang under the fat number. For starters, Georgia is deified because they can seemingly reload without any decline in play. Frankly, they didn't look like #1 in the opener.

They do lose a two-time National Champion QB. And they've put Back-to-Back classes of amazing defenders into the NFL. Make UGA show us something before we crown em (again).

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Play #11 = EAST CAROLINA +3 (1.94). 100 to win 94.

My logic here ties to the Defenses going in opposite directions:

*Marshall is off a great year. They rode a stingy defense to the upset win at Notre Dame and a bowl win. Most of their top defenders are gone.

*East Carolina has a young offense but a veteran defense. The Pirates faced an impossible task at Michigan in the opener. The defense held up as well as one could hope and didn't get gouged.

Will take the +3 in a game that figures to play out as more of a toss-up game.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Play #10 = 350 TULANE +6.5 (2.12). 100 to win 112.

Green Wave off a home run year which was highlighted by the bowl win over USC. I thought they might be ripe in the opener after such a great campaign. They weren't, they soundly beat a good team.

The OFF Line looks solid. Pratt looks sharp. Think we catch a confident team as Home Dog...and the line value looks good.

Part of it is that that Tulane has been so bad for so long. Tulane just doesn't sound right. I think they're legit, go Wave.

Been studying this game some more. Definitely like Tulane. A few things:

1) Pratt (Tulane QB) had one of the best games in recent memory. Look at his stat-line. And he did it against a legit opponent.

2) Re: Ole Miss, one might question why the coach would run up the score like that. I think it was to appease the backup QB Sanders (who transferred from Okla St). Can't really ask him to hand it off, so he let Sanders throw two TDs against air. That explains why the Final Score looked so lopsided.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Play #13 = Indiana St +31.5 (1.91). 100 to win 91.

...See some reasons to like the Sycamores here. Is Larry Bird suiting up?

[Mac4Lyfe]

Go get em Chucky

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Go get em Chucky

Thanks, Mac. We'll find out soon enuf.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Play #13 = Indiana St +31.5 (1.91). 100 to win 91.

...See some reasons to like the Sycamores here. Is Larry Bird suiting up?

41-7, ATS loser. And it wasn't luck. This was a pretty bad pick.

The lone IND St score was fortunate, a 75-yd Fumble returned for TD. Indiana is solid, keep an eye on them.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

41-7, ATS loser. And it wasn't luck. This was a pretty bad pick.

The lone IND St score was fortunate, a 75-yd Fumble returned for TD. Indiana is solid, keep an eye on them.

IND St was covering this # for 58:00. Hoosiers got down to the 3-yd line, 4th/goal. I was hoping the IND coach would just go for it.

He opted for the chip-shot FG. I wonder if he knew the #...and decided to make a donation to the Alumni Fund.

[lakerboy]

Chuck what you got tomorrow

[ChuckyTheGoat]

See above, Laker. My two other plays from the other thread are Nebraska and MiaFL.

Play #14 = 362 MISS ST -9 (1.91). 100 to win 91.

...Lot of dogs this week, but I like this Favorite. Basis is the revamped Miss St offense.

1) QB Rogers is a proven commodity. Good (if not great) QB.
2) Off Line is a veteran unit. They ran for 7.5 YPR in the opener.
3) One criticism of the recent Miss St offenses might be that they were one-dimensional. The opener showed that they're more committed to the run-game. Key transfer = QB Wright (from Vanderbilt).

Wright is an explosive rusher. He performed well in the opener. Wright will be used in packages. I think this is a game-changer. Miss St now has an efficient QB and a more balanced offense with the run game.

Go, Dawgs. More cow-bell.

[gauchojake]

Juice free Tulane bet at Heritage if you are so inclined +7

I am throwing some bombs tomorrow - Appalachian ST ML is one of them.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Juice free Tulane bet at Heritage if you are so inclined +7

I am throwing some bombs tomorrow - Appalachian ST ML is one of them.

Thank you, Jake. I will look at that Heritage special:

1) Honestly, Pratt played one of the best games I've seen. Even sharper than Sanders was at TCU.

2) App St is on my radar. I'll think about it. Reports I got on North Carol say that their Line looks strong.
...North Carol really demolished South Carolina. And that rivalry is usually pretty close.
...This North Carol team might be a notch above what we normally see.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Play #10 = 350 TULANE +6.5 (2.12). 100 to win 112.

Green Wave off a home run year which was highlighted by the bowl win over USC. I thought they might be ripe in the opener after such a great campaign. They weren't, they soundly beat a good team.

The OFF Line looks solid. Pratt looks sharp. Think we catch a confident team as Home Dog...and the line value looks good.

Part of it is that that Tulane has been so bad for so long. Tulane just doesn't sound right. I think they're legit, go Wave.

Play #15 = (Adding a unit on Tulane) +7.5 (1.95). 100 to win 95.

Play #16 = 369 UAB +6.5 (2.02). 100 to win 102.
...More counter-intuitive logic. Mostly new roster with Dilfer as new HC. Returning starters have been a key indicator for early-season bettors, and bettors hate betting teams with a low Returning Starter count.

OK, what about UAB being a better program than GA Southern? And UAB coming out of a Conference with a better Strength of Schedule? QB looked sharp in the opener, I'll grab the full TD.

Play #17 = Austin Peay +46 (1.87). 100 to win 87.
...I don't think enough is being made of Tennessee's two key losses. Their explosion in 2022 was mostly due to two key playmakers:
*QB Hooker. He accumulated an amazing TD/INT ratio.
*WR Hyatt. He had the amazing 5-td game against Alabama.

Austin Peay QB Dilielo has some pedigree. Played well last year, used to play at MTSU. He'll hit some plays, APeay won't get shut out.

[nyrb]

Good writeups thanks

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Good writeups thanks

Thank you, nyrb. Appreciate it. Good Luck if you're in action today.

I will say one thing about writeups. I've seen some guys who do great writeups but don't win. Still have to get to the Winner's Circle.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Play #18 = NEVADA +5.5 (1.91). 100 to win 91.

[gauchojake]

That Tulane game unraveled quickly

[ChuckyTheGoat]

That Tulane game unraveled quickly

Very much so, Jake. As it played out:

*I thought Miss HC should kick the FG at 20-17.
*Then the guy kicks a 56-yd FG at 27-20.
*Anyone holding the +14 may feel a reaming coming.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Juice free Tulane bet at Heritage if you are so inclined +7

I am throwing some bombs tomorrow - Appalachian ST ML is one of them.

App St right there, 17-17. GL, Jake.

[gauchojake]

App St right there, 17-17. GL, Jake.

I should have taken the spread lol

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Play #19 = 158 HAWAII -8 (1.93). 100 to win 93.

...Bows didn't get there last week. Marathon trip from Albany to Honolulu. Laying the pts.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I should have taken the spread lol

Damn. I'd say you got your Money's worth. Very nice stab.