why the Oakland raiders are only 3.5 point favor ??

[lonegambler23]

tua and briscuit 0 difference

[KVB]

tua and briscuit 0 difference

I sort of agree here.

I'd rather not trigger Miami, to be honest, in the Contrarian Fund, they have QB issues.

I'd rather see +4.5 and +5 and get a trigger that way in my ATS/ML Fund.

But if we stay at 3.5 or 4 and the Radiers continue to get action, the books are clearly solidifying a position. One thing to look for here is as move to 4 or 4.5 and then the books expressing RLM to put it back down to 3.5. This may have already happened. The books will take a position, but will also do what they can to generate action on the game.

They have a good line to do just that this week.

[klemopixx]

Rams +1 will crush TB.
That defensive line will get Brady running out of the pocket where he's less effective. Stafford will throw 50 times. The o55 is in play here too.

[KVB]

Rams +1 will crush TB.
That defensive line will get Brady running out of the pocket where he's less effective. Stafford will throw 50 times. The o55 is in play here too.

I think that line hits +1.5 before running into a little but more defining pressure.

Not a bad move to fade this movement this week, could be a good look, win or lose.

[lakerboy]

I think that line hits +1.5 before running into a little but more defining pressure.

Not a bad move to fade this movement this week, could be a good look, win or lose.

Its an interesting game isn't it. They held Tom in check last season and Donald did absolutely nothing and that was on the road with Goff. I just heard that Stafford has been the most protected qb in the NFL and even before that I expected tb defense to get better this week. Also the Bucs have a cross country trip to New England for the big tv game next week. Bucs look like a setup type play.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Its an interesting game isn't it. They held Tom in check last season and Donald did absolutely nothing and that was on the road with Goff. I just heard that Stafford has been the most protected qb in the NFL and even before that I expected tb defense to get better this week. Also the Bucs have a cross country trip to New England for the big tv game next week. Bucs look like a setup type play.

Rams +1 will crush TB.
That defensive line will get Brady running out of the pocket where he's less effective. Stafford will throw 50 times. The o55 is in play here too.
...Klemo/Laker, you're hitting on it. I don't want to speak too soon, but this feels like a generational game to me. What do I mean?

I know all the Fantasy FB players are unaware of Aaron Donald. Donald is approaching un-charted territory. In my book, the two greatest Def Tackles ever are Mean Joe Greene and Bob Lilly. Can Donald supplant Lilly on that list?

Surely, Donald is priority #1 on the Buc scouting report. TomB can move away from him. But doesn't that accomplish your goal w/o Donald touching him?

Laker, NFL at the highest level is a mind game. So many times, Def Tackles are pawns. They might not record stats...but they can have big impact on the game.

Klemo, I don't like that Over. I think Bucs score below their avg here. Go, Donald, be a menace.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Maxx Crosby has quickly become a problem. Guy is a heck of a player.

[KVB]

Its an interesting game isn't it. They held Tom in check last season and Donald did absolutely nothing and that was on the road with Goff. I just heard that Stafford has been the most protected qb in the NFL and even before that I expected tb defense to get better this week. Also the Bucs have a cross country trip to New England for the big tv game next week. Bucs look like a setup type play.

The one issue is Tom Brady has this habit of burning us and those thinking like us. But honestly that's no deal breaker, it never is.

Aaaand that's why Tom Brady keeps burning us....lol.

But really, a good bet is a good bet, even if Brady is on the other side. It's early season, so there's that, but my early season stacking percentages forecast has LAR winning with 24 or 27 points to TB's 17 or 20 points. Those seem like big ranges, but it's football and the scoring is unnique obviously. Also, because we're still in early season, I open up the numbers a bit, and allow for this. The bigger point is to show where the methodology is leading to as the season progresses.

Just to be complete, that non predictive public gauge says, the perception gauge, says TB wins 27-26.

So the opener makes a bit of sense, you just can't make TB too big of dog, but bigger money can still trade this as we get into even higher limits.

Let's see how this one trades, and sits, going into Sunday, if I see some buyback hitting, I just might pick up some RAMS ML. In fact I going to shop around and see if might not open a position today as any buyback doesn't have to hit the market until they want it to. It's tough to stay ahead, especially when I'm looking for the 1.5 to show.

But right now, as it stands with the info I have, I think it goes to 1.5.

[KVB]

Rams +1 will crush TB.
That defensive line will get Brady running out of the pocket where he's less effective. Stafford will throw 50 times. The o55 is in play here too.
...Klemo/Laker, you're hitting on it. I don't want to speak too soon, but this feels like a generational game to me. What do I mean?

I know all the Fantasy FB players are unaware of Aaron Donald. Donald is approaching un-charted territory. In my book, the two greatest Def Tackles ever are Mean Joe Greene and Bob Lilly. Can Donald supplant Lilly on that list?

Surely, Donald is priority #1 on the Buc scouting report. TomB can move away from him. But doesn't that accomplish your goal w/o Donald touching him?

Laker, NFL at the highest level is a mind game. So many times, Def Tackles are pawns. They might not record stats...but they can have big impact on the game.

Klemo, I don't like that Over. I think Bucs score below their avg here. Go, Donald, be a menace.

When we can mix the subjective, as long as it's subjective worth a grain of salt, almost always brought to that level by experience, with the technical aspects sometimes we really can cook up the patty, add the cheese, build it up on a bun and serve up one tasty burger.

Taking a bite out of the Rams is not the worst thing you could do here.

Klemo it's a good look.

[DwightShrute]

Carr banged up
Jacobs banged up
Dolphins were humiliated last week at home. They have a lot to prove this week.

Miami 24 LV 23

[KVB]

To get back to Vegas and Miami.

I have this to share. Part of the reason we see what appears to be RLM I think I mentioned earlier is that there is, not bigger money on the spread bet, but it's the Miami moneline that was getting hit when the spread levels were higher.

Is the info good?

Proof will be, and I suspect this will happpen, if that line can make it's way back up we will see less of an adjustment on the moneyline. The market might just have to get conservative there. But again, it's early and a lot of money and bets are yet to come in on the game. My office estimates that this game has about 1/2 to 2/3 the volume it will have by game time.

I also suspect Pinny will continue to play games here, enticing traders and arb bettors with plus money around the 4 line, that means -3.5 plus or cheap and +4.5 plus or cheap.

In the end, they are just generating the handle.

[CJ]

Classic squares vs sharps game.

You see all the fools here lining up to bet Las Vegas, like it's free money. I'll be on Miami for sure. If I could trust Brissett this would be a huge play. The Dolphins are the better team and outside of QB (and is Tua even any good), Miami is far healthier than the Raiders. Furthermore, at 0-2, Miami's season is pretty much on the line. If they want any hope of a wild card spot, they have to win this game.

[KVB]

Classic squares vs sharps game.

You see all the fools here lining up to bet Las Vegas, like it's free money. I'll be on Miami for sure. If I could trust Brissett this would be a huge play. The Dolphins are the better team and outside of QB (and is Tua even any good), Miami is far healthier than the Raiders. Furthermore, at 0-2, Miami's season is pretty much on the line. If they want any hope of a wild card spot, they have to win this game.

I tend to agree here. Sharper sides willing to start the moneyline position as well. I think that's we are seeing now.

[KVB]

Classic squares vs sharps game.

You see all the fools here lining up to bet Las Vegas, like it's free money. I'll be on Miami for sure. If I could trust Brissett this would be a huge play. The Dolphins are the better team and outside of QB (and is Tua even any good), Miami is far healthier than the Raiders. Furthermore, at 0-2, Miami's season is pretty much on the line. If they want any hope of a wild card spot, they have to win this game.

Plus this...

But, perhaps even worse, close your eyes and say “Raiders -4 1/2 +102” out loud.Without any capping at all, it just has one of those “rings” to it...lol....

[pavyracer]

Raiders defense is good? Miami’s is better
And their defensive line nothing special so far. Vegas barely won if Lamar didn’t fumble 2x and beat a mediocre pitt offense. I love how everyone is saying vegas js so good Bc they are 2-0.

How is Miami defense better? They lost to Buffalo and barely beat NE with a rookie QB.

The Raiders faced Lamar Jackson and Ben Roth. Now they get to lick their chops on Bissett.

[kimwash78]

How is Miami defense better? They lost to Buffalo and barely beat NE with a rookie QB.

The Raiders faced Lamar Jackson and Ben Roth. Now they get to lick their chops on Bissett.

Lamar put up 27 pts
And fumbles 2x and I didn’t watch Pitt game but Ben needs to retire. Matt Jones played a perfect game against Miami if you watched it. Regardless of who is QB for miami doesn’t make the Vegas defense better. Miami bolstered their defense off-season even though defensive line is nothing special but I can say with certainty we are better than Vegas on that side of the ball. As for offense no, but Vegas is no KC either. Miami has good chance to beat them .

[KVB]

Not sure if anyone is reading much of what I'm posting, or cares, but I will say that this has been a good thread of blending different subjective thoughts on some games, some backed by stats and performances, along with thoughts on where the players are and what the book is doing.

And a little Dwighty humor as well...

Treeemendous thread guys, it's a breath of fresh air SBR could use.

Thank you.

[KiDBaZkiT]

Black head coach and black starting QB? Raiders do appear to be the correct side. Jus sayin….

[KVB]

I smell a vegas win but no cover.

When Miami goes up 14-0 early I will be buying Vegas to win because it's not what they bring, it's how they bring it.

[asiagambler]

Brissett is horrible

I prefer Raiders -3.5 if forced to bet

[klemopixx]

Rams +1 will crush TB.
That defensive line will get Brady running out of the pocket where he's less effective. Stafford will throw 50 times. The o55 is in play here too.
...Klemo/Laker, you're hitting on it. I don't want to speak too soon, but this feels like a generational game to me. What do I mean?

I know all the Fantasy FB players are unaware of Aaron Donald. Donald is approaching un-charted territory. In my book, the two greatest Def Tackles ever are Mean Joe Greene and Bob Lilly. Can Donald supplant Lilly on that list?

Surely, Donald is priority #1 on the Buc scouting report. TomB can move away from him. But doesn't that accomplish your goal w/o Donald touching him?

Laker, NFL at the highest level is a mind game. So many times, Def Tackles are pawns. They might not record stats...but they can have big impact on the game.

Klemo, I don't like that Over. I think Bucs score below their avg here. Go, Donald, be a menace.

The key to this game will be the 1st qtr. Brady would love to turn this into a dink and dunk fest and slowly drive down the field and control the clock. But if Stafford starts off quick that all goes out the window. I can see this being a 38-35 slugfest with the last team holding the ball wins. Henderson is questionable for the game so it's not like the Rams are going to run the ball. Sony Michele probably isn't up to speed with the entire offense yet so he'll be mainly a change of pace run or safety valve dump off out of the backfield. This is gonna be a track meet.

[kimwash78]

Brissett is horrible



I prefer Raiders -3.5 if forced to bet

Miami beat the raiders last yr
W tua/fitz
Raiders w jacobs
Who knows even if Jacobs is playing prob is
But still Brissett has weapons around him
To beat LV
I’m not touching game as dolphins fan
Personally Buffalo and NE better are bets
Bc I’ll say this if Winston is starting us starting
He throws easily 3 picks to that defense
Also if any commercial realtors In Florida
Please pm if you like

[seaborneq]

Carr banged up
Jacobs banged up
Dolphins were humiliated last week at home. They have a lot to prove this week.

Miami 24 LV 23

That's Big Ben's regular picture. No filter needed.

[swordsandtequila]

[QUOTE=CJ;30551378]Classic squares vs sharps game.

You see all the fools here lining up to bet Las Vegas, like it's free money. I'll be on Miami for sure. If I could trust Brissett this would be a huge play. The Dolphins are the better team and outside of QB (and is Tua even any good), Miami is far healthier than the Raiders. Furthermore, at 0-2, Miami's season is pretty much on the line. If they want any hope of a wild card spot, they have to win this game.[/QUOTE

The only flaw here is Miami is 1-1...

[swordsandtequila]

Rams +1 will crush TB.
That defensive line will get Brady running out of the pocket where he's less effective. Stafford will throw 50 times. The o55 is in play here too.
...Klemo/Laker, you're hitting on it. I don't want to speak too soon, but this feels like a generational game to me. What do I mean?

I know all the Fantasy FB players are unaware of Aaron Donald. Donald is approaching un-charted territory. In my book, the two greatest Def Tackles ever are Mean Joe Greene and Bob Lilly. Can Donald supplant Lilly on that list?

Surely, Donald is priority #1 on the Buc scouting report. TomB can move away from him. But doesn't that accomplish your goal w/o Donald touching him?

Laker, NFL at the highest level is a mind game. So many times, Def Tackles are pawns. They might not record stats...but they can have big impact on the game.

Klemo, I don't like that Over. I think Bucs score below their avg here. Go, Donald, be a menace.

Don't be surprised if Vita Vea has a bigger impact on the game than Donald

[jackpot269]

Not sure if anyone is reading much of what I'm posting, or cares, but I will say that this has been a good thread of blending different subjective thoughts on some games, some backed by stats and performances, along with thoughts on where the players are and what the book is doing.

And a little Dwighty humor as well...

Treeemendous thread guys, it's a breath of fresh air SBR could use.

Thank you.

Always like reading your post and I enjoy your insight and trying to learn just how the your funds work, Keep up the good work my friend and keep the teaching points coming !!

"Knowledge is a powerful thing, hopefully we turn it in to a profitably thing," Jackpot

[stevenash]

Always like reading your post and I enjoy your insight and trying to learn just how the your funds work, Keep up the good work my friend and keep the teaching points coming !!

"Knowledge is a powerful thing, hopefully we turn it in to a profitably thing," Jackpot

Probably the smartest poster on the boards.

[jackpot269]

Probably the smartest poster on the boards.

I would not doubt that !! He definitely pulls the average IQ up at the SBR
There are a lot around that are like Forrest Gump living below that 80 line

[jackpot269]

Lamar put up 27 pts
And fumbles 2x and I didn’t watch Pitt game but Ben needs to retire. Matt Jones played a perfect game against Miami if you watched it. Regardless of who is QB for miami doesn’t make the Vegas defense better. Miami bolstered their defense off-season even though defensive line is nothing special but I can say with certainty we are better than Vegas on that side of the ball. As for offense no, but Vegas is no KC either. Miami has good chance to beat them .

I thought causing fumbles was a good stat for the defense I guess, it was the Ravens fault when they got tackled on punts or kickoffs or when running the ball!! If the return man had not got tackled 3 times on 3 returns the Ravens would have won!! I just thought that was all part of the game and you were taught in practice to try and cause a fumble its not like he was free and clear running for a TD no one in sight an just drops the ball and lets it lay there until someone on other team comes to recover it!!

[kimwash78]

I thought causing fumbles was a good stat for the defense I guess, it was the Ravens fault when they got tackled on punts or kickoffs or when running the ball!! If the return man had not got tackled 3 times on 3 returns the Ravens would have won!! I just thought that was all part of the game and you were taught in practice to try and cause a fumble its not like he was free and clear running for a TD no one in sight an just drops the ball and lets it lay there until someone on other team comes to recover it!!

That wasnt my point, Balt still put up 27 pts against this Raiders defense and Pitts offense is no threat was my point...Miamis defense is better is my point, Raiders as a team is overrated

[jackpot269]

That wasnt my point, Balt still put up 27 pts against this Raiders defense and Pitts offense is no threat was my point...Miamis defense is better is my point, Raiders as a team is overrated

Sorry for misunderstanding!! Raiders may be overrated to early in season to say but I do think they are improved over last year! I think Miaimi has a good defense and both have only played 2 games and Maimi is giving up 25.5 per game and Raiders 27,

[jjgold]

It’s the national football league anybody can beat anybody

[jackpot269]

It’s the national football league anybody can beat anybody

[Brandt Moat]

I'm a Raider fan. I can't get anything down on this due to the traveling. NFL hates the Raiders! Owner NOT one of them people.

This game can go either way so no I won’t bet it.
I won’t bet against my dolphins but they can easily win. Don’t forget Vegas traveling back and forth takes tolls on teams. Rather get Buffalo and Dallas
Better games to win money on

[209 Life]

LFG Raiders! On -3 1/2