Pick chat. Dont respond to trolls.

[degennn]

Good luck with it degen, carry on

Appreciate it. Hope to see you in here some time

[degennn]

Taking Lajovic and Munar in a parlay. In theory it should hit.

Ayyy! Thanks!

[5mike5]

Man...just post when you see something. I'll be talking tennis is a couple hours. Just want a space on this sports betting forum where we can actually converse about lines and reads.

Sub forums are much better imo. But agree PT hasn't been a place to actually talk picks ect in Many years. There's a couple of guys obv that post that are good but not many

GL on ur plays!

[degennn]

Alright alright alright. Let's find some winners

[Allure]

Great tennis picks from me. Can't wait to share more. Fukking hell.

[juicername]

Trump the worst preisdent ever. Biden saving the country.

[degennn]

Great tennis picks from me. Can't wait to share more. Fukking hell.

Omg what happened to lajovic. I just looked haha. O well. Looked good for a sec

[degennn]

Who's stepping into the free money trap of bucks -1 ....Forbes going off again tonight?

[KVB]

Heat the Contrarian Side, the Bucks own it in the Forecasts.

It's a tough one. Definitely leaning Heat here, but I don't have enough for a trigger.

I need to able to make quite a market adjustment to the forecast to get it down to the Heat, and may just pass as a contrarian play.

Probably why it's the Heat...lol.

My stacking percentages Forecast shows the Mil winning with 119 or 120 points to 105 or 106 points. That's a blowout in a 224, 225, or 226 point game. Seems like my forecast is right near the offered Total even if it's way off on the spread.

[degennn]

Heat the Contrarian Side, the Bucks own it in the Forecasts.

It's a tough one. Definitely leaning Heat here, but I don't have enough for a trigger.

I need to able to make quite a market adjustment to the forecast to get it down to the Heat, and may just pass as a contrarian play.

Probably why it's the Heat...lol.

My stacking percentages Forecast shows the Mil winning with 119 or 120 points to 105 or 106 points. That's a blowout in a 224, 225, or 226 point game. Seems like my forecast is right near the offered Total even if it's way off on the spread.

Besides 1q, bucks beat heat by 8 points in the other 3qs. Bucks dropped 22 three pointers...

Bryn Forbes went off. Who is that?! Lol

[KVB]

I guess I just have this taste of the Heat from last playoffs. Had that taste with Boston too, but that's gone sour...lol.

Is this the same Heat team as last year?

If so, I think they scrap back at home, for at least one win. This could be it.

[degennn]

I guess I just have this taste of the Heat from last playoffs. Had that taste with Boston too, but that's gone sour...lol.

Is this the same Heat team as last year?

If so, I think they scrap back at home, for at least one win. This could be it.

I hope this total keeps dropping

[KVB]

Besides 1q, bucks beat heat by 8 points in the other 3qs. Bucks dropped 22 three pointers...

Bryn Forbes went off. Who is that?! Lol

Forbes plays 20 minutes, 8-12, 6-9 from 3 point land, 5 def rebounds.

What about Pat Connaughton? Dude went 5-9 from three point land, 3 boards, an assist.

No way these guys repeat that effort.

lol

[KVB]

Heat were 8-28 from three, Bucks were 22-53.



No way that happens again.

[degennn]

Ya not much info there. Like flipping a coin and it land standing straight up. Lol

[KVB]

It's one of the ultimate splits in types of bettors.

You like streaks, momentum, the better, more popular team at a cheap favorite price? You like the Bucks.

You like to break streaks, momentum, think the line is shady low, go against the public but with the money, and know there's so often give and take? You like the Heat here.

Probably going to be a very high volume game too. Books giving everyone a reason to bet this game.

[degennn]

Are books begging for suns money or just anticipating lots of laker money

[KVB]

Are books begging for suns money or just anticipating lots of laker money

Looking into this one. From what I can see so far this line is fairly sharp as far as forecasting and the money and public (tickets) have been on the spread while the ml has been Lakers.

I think it's safe to anticiapte Laker money no matter what and it will probably show. I don't think the books are trying to take too much of a position in this game, I don't think.

Getting more info on this one soon

[KVB]

Sharpest forecast I have shows Lakers winning this game by 7 or 8 points.

The non predictive public gauge shows Phoenix winning 109-107.

As popular as the Lakers are, the market seems to be favoring the Phoenix spread, but is not sold on the upset, yet.

Like I said, it stands to reason that the Lakers will get the bets moving forward.

With a spread that's just about right on, bettors will likely lean on the story of questioning Chris Paul's health as well as the Lakers being the Lakers, which should lead to LA bets too, in terms of rationalizing their bets.

[thomorino]

One thing a lot of people don’t realize is the Suns have actually a been better statistically without Booker on the court. I don’t honk you can just take that stay at face value, but Chris Paul is more important to Phoenix than Booker, he controls tempo and bets the tone defensively. Even if Paul plays he is obviously not healthy, I’d lean Lakers.

[degennn]

One thing a lot of people don’t realize is the Suns have actually a been better statistically without Booker on the court. I don’t honk you can just take that stay at face value, but Chris Paul is more important to Phoenix than Booker, he controls tempo and bets the tone defensively. Even if Paul plays he is obviously not healthy, I’d lean Lakers.

With that being said, do you see a higher score than expected with cp3 not out there controlling pace? Lakers are strong defensively and suns more often than not use up alot of clock.

[degennn]

I'll likely be on the under in bucks game and will be backing miami to take one in a do or die scenario

[thomorino]

With that being said, do you see a higher score than expected with cp3 not out there controlling pace? Lakers are strong defensively and suns more often than not use up alot of clock.

I do, it Paul doesn’t play the tempo should be faster and the score should be higher.

[degennn]

But the offense could also be much less efficient. Lakers play good d.

Thinking about this first game....I guess if bucks opened say -4 then I think everyone would be on bucks....

[thomorino]

But the offense could also be much less efficient. Lakers play good d.

Thinking about this first game....I guess if bucks opened say -4 then I think everyone would be on bucks....

Tempo is almost always more important than efficiency.

[degennn]

Kinda looks like portland wins by a buzzer beater dame time special no?

[KVB]

Interesting Morino.

I'm definitely not arguing here, there may be something to exploit.

When you say statistically better without booker, what stats? Are talking scoring and D? I might dig into pace if you don't have it.

My point is that I beleive the market Total actually opened lower because of the questions with Paul, even though he's not questionable. The line rose 2 points.

We have reason to believe Paul will play, but his contribution and time is questionable when he does. Until he shows up fine on the court, it just will be that way among the bettors.

It doesn't just show when you limit paul in forecasting, think about the first game to second game, the Totals hung went from 213.5 and then 210.5 when paul was questionable. Game two actually opened around 208 and went up 2 points.

This time, 210 and up two points. So you can see even the originators and books are trying to adjust but the public loves their OVERS.

A lot forecast lining up on that OVER, and in these situations that can be bad. My projected pace of this game just doesn't line up with OVER notion here at all.

I'm leaning UNDER here, going agains the move and forecasts. Last game it was the OVER, which paid those metrics. It's a game of give and take and in that the UNDER looks better and better from my perspective.

[KVB]

Tempo is almost always more important than efficiency.

I think the pace of this game will be relatively slower.

Lakers and Phoenix on that low end of the spectrum in the NBA right now.

[degennn]

Interesting Morino.

I'm definitely not arguing here, there may be something to exploit.

When you say statistically better without booker, what stats? Are talking scoring and D? I might dig into pace if you don't have it.

My point is that I beleive the market Total actually opened lower because of the questions with Paul, even though he's not questionable. The line rose 2 points.

We have reason to believe Paul will play, but his contribution and time is questionable when he does. Until he shows up fine on the court, it just will be that way among the bettors.

It doesn't just show when you limit paul in forecasting, think about the first game to second game, the Totals hung went from 213.5 and then 210.5 when paul was questionable. Game two actually opened around 208 and went up 2 points.

This time, 210 and up two points. So you can see even the originators and books are trying to adjust but the public loves their OVERS.

A lot forecast lining up on that OVER, and in these situations that can be bad. My projected pace of this game just doesn't line up with OVER notion here at all.

I'm leaning UNDER here, going agains the move and forecasts. Last game it was the OVER, which paid those metrics. It's a game of give and take and in that the UNDER looks better and better from my perspective.

It's likely an under for me as well....suns cant throw out their identity and just start running and gunning against a strong lakers defence.

[KVB]

Are books begging for suns money or just anticipating lots of laker money

Talked to some boys in the industry in Vegas and yes they are anticipating some serious Laker money.

I think we all knew that lol.

I agree with Heat, it is becoming a sexier and sexier play on my end.

[degennn]

If cp3 playing hurt it might make even more sense for them to slow it down even more.

[KVB]

Thing about pace is that it adds up in a funny way.

Hear me out with a basic example. If an above average scoring team plays a below average scoring team you can expect average scores (yes, I know, very basic and not even necessarily correct lol, but stick with me). When two below average scoring teams play you can expect a below average score. Likewise, when two above average play, you can expect above average scores.

So when two run and gun NBA teams play each other, you can expect high scores. But how you calculate what to expect doesn't rise in a straight line. The further from average teams are, when they play each other, the expectation grows.

So the two most run a gun teams in the League play each other and the expectation becomes sort of geometrically higher. They run and gun each other into a higher scoring game. You take your normal calculation of their scores, then have to add points because of this effect.

Looking at LA and Phoe, we're talking about pace here. It works the same way, to an extent. These guys are the bottom of the barrel pace when playing each other when compared to everyone else. They are trending too, in the slower direction. That matters.

The more we put them together, the slower the get. We might not see 90 possessions each tonight. The books know, they are trying to adjust, but the public is thirsty for the Lakeshow.

[degennn]

I like all 3 unders....port den will be decided by a game winning shot i feel aka no foul game. I'll take a free 10 points off the top.

[KVB]

I did it.

...

554

27-May

PHO/LA UNDER 212 (-107)

[degennn]

Me too

I'm going over first game and the 2 unders to follow.