Pick chat. Dont respond to trolls.

[degennn]

Phx ml starting to interest me.

[thomorino]

Phx ml starting to interest me.

This is the first Lakers playoff game with fans in a long time, Lakers should come out strong here.

[degennn]

This is the first Lakers playoff game with fans in a long time, Lakers should come out strong here.

Lakers is very square

[thomorino]

Lakers is very square

Disagree, the Lakers haven’t been consistent at all the last month.

[degennn]

Disagree, the Lakers haven’t been consistent at all the last month.

I stay away from side...gl if you play it.

[KVB]

Lakers is very square

It's the playoffs, money will shift back and forth in the give and take.

It doesn't look like the Heat is going in the Fund as a contrarian play, might nibble at it, but a bucks sweep is possible here. Maybe not the Mia team of last year's playoffs.

[KVB]

Thought about Bucks LIVE and will look at it, but like last night, if it gets out of hand, 20 point MIA lead, feels like to me like Bucks will quit.

But I was wrong last night.

[ThaTopMoron]

bucks tomorrow

Hi

[degennn]

Hi

Nice work!

[degennn]

Picked up u240.5 5u & suns ml 5u

[KVB]

Picked up u240.5 5u & suns ml 5u

Good luck. I'm glad the Fund was patient and didn't trigger Miami, dodged a bullet there, but I could definitely see the appeal.

Let's get these UNDERS.

[unde0087]

Good luck. I'm glad the Fund was patient and didn't trigger Miami, dodged a bullet there, but I could definitely see the appeal.

Let's get these UNDERS.

KVB, stick to making premium deli sandwich pal

[KVB]

KVB, stick to making premium deli sandwich pal

Got the UNDER in LA, we got this.

Hitting the winners and passing on the losers tonight Unde.

[unde0087]

Got the UNDER in LA, we got this.

Hitting the winners and passing on the losers tonight Unde.

I could use another goal in Mexico. Live bet over .5/1 and it is 1-0. Need one more for full win, getting really late though.

[degennn]

Got the UNDER in LA, we got this.

Hitting the winners and passing on the losers tonight Unde.

Good pass on mia. Dont know why I went over last minute on mia. Didnt like the idea of all three games go under..

[degennn]

I could use another goal in Mexico. Live bet over .5/1 and it is 1-0. Need one more for full win, getting really late though.

Gl buddy

[degennn]

Let's get it

[KVB]

Who's getting swept?

Boston or Mia?

Both teams not the same bubble teams of just 7 or 8 months ago and both teams facing tough ass opponents.

I kind of think MIA gets swept, but Bos could too. Can they both get swept?

I don't think that happens. Maybe they both go to 3-0 before one gets a win. The Heat are already there. I think Nets win tonight, they might even cover this shit.

Just thinking out loud here.

[KVB]

I lost with an UNDER in WNBA a couple of days ago and I'm looking to get it back here. This analysis could go in this thread, give you guys a feeling for where I'm coming from here...

I have you at -110 Mo.

Faders get Min +6 (-108) or they can find 6.5 and even 5.5 out there.

Good Luck.

My stacking percentages forecast show Seatlle winning by about 20 points with a Total of 162 or 163 points. The non predictive public gauge says Seattle wins 89-79.

Another tempting Under but varying forecasts I make edge up a little higher towrards 165. I think the books want the the sharper forecasters and gamblers to pass here. By landing a number at or near the forecasts of some disciplined groups, you can force them gamble, which they will not do. So they sideline their money, and wait for a better number. At this point the number is between the ublic and sharper predictions, but it's a tight window.

I believe that's what's happening here, expecially when you calculate the pubic's tnednecy for the Over, and especially in the rising stat situation of Seattle.

I can think of a few reasons to sideline sharp bettors but the one that sticks out here is that house expects an UNDER.

I'm going back to the poison well. I am going to figure my forecast below the Total is sharper than the best in the world who are closer to the Total. I am going against Morino's noted advice by taking the UNDER in a Seattle game, again.

In hopes this isn't a perpetual trap for forecasters, I picked up...

662

28-May

MIN/SEA UNDER 166.5 (-107)

Danger Will Robinson.

Danger.

Bad Beat Beaver Ball in action tonight!!

Guess this ref was down for the threesome...

[degennn]

Who's getting swept?

Boston or Mia?

Both teams not the same bubble teams of just 7 or 8 months ago and both teams facing tough ass opponents.

I kind of think MIA gets swept, but Bos could too. Can they both get swept?

I don't think that happens. Maybe they both go to 3-0 before one gets a win. The Heat are already there. I think Nets win tonight, they might even cover this shit.

Just thinking out loud here.

Blind bet nets seems too easy no?

[KVB]

Blind bet nets seems too easy no?

Yeah, and that 8/7.5 point line is an upset waiting to happen in a market like this.

So that side almost seems too easy.

[KVB]

The world wants to see the Nets and the Lakers, I think the world might get what they want.

I know that means nothing for today's games, but I see the Nets just getting out of this series to prepare to move on.

To punish the greedy, Nets could very well win and not cover.

But I think one of the Heat or Celtics win game 4 when down 3-0.

[KVB]

Here's a chart of the NBA playoff teams today and their units if you had bet the same unit on their closing spread for each game this regular season.

The Knicks paid their bettors this year, huge.

Then there is the same record for the playoffs.

Of course units may vary depending on priced and the line, but they don't vary much overall...

ATS	Season			Playoffs
	UNITS	ROI	NBA Rank	UNITS	Rank (1-20)
NY	17	24%	1	0	7
ATL	5	7%	7	0	8
BROOK	2.3	3%	10	1.9	2
BOS	-6.5	-9%	24	-1	17
LAC	5.5	8%	6	-2	20
DAL	-3.5	-5%	18	1.9	1

Here's that same chart for moneylines. The 0's in both playoff charts are just a small win or small loss (vig), near breakeven, not exactly breakeven.

ML	Season			Playoffs
	UNITS	ROI	NBA Rank	UNITS	Rank (1-20)
NY	21	29%	1	0	10
ATL	1.3	2%	10	0	8
BROOK	8.5	12%	5	0.5	7
BOS	-8	-11%	26	-1	15
LAC	-3	-4%	21	-2	18
DAL	0.3	0.30%	14	5	1

[thomorino]

Blind bet nets seems too easy no?

This Boston team has followed the same pattern all year against good teams. They lead early, stay with them through the second and usually most of the third quarter, and then they completely fall apart in the 4th.

The other thing is Brooklyn knows Milwaukee is likely to sweep Miami, and they don’t want Milwaukee to get extra rest ahead of the likely series between Milwaukee and Brooklyn.

[KVB]

This Boston team has followed the same pattern all year against good teams. They lead early, stay with them through the second and usually most of the third quarter, and then they completely fall apart in the 4th.

The other thing is Brooklyn knows Milwaukee is likely to sweep Miami, and they don’t want Milwaukee to get extra rest ahead of the likely series between Milwaukee and Brooklyn.

You think two sweeps?

It sure feels like it.

What about open parlay the moneylines? That's over three games basically. Should have started with MIL last night.

[KVB]

Thinking of a two pick parlay.

Brooklyn -320
Min Wild +1.5 (-186)

That alone pays even money and not a bad start to an open parlay campaign.

[Tanko]

Thinking of a two pick parlay.

Brooklyn -320
Min Wild +1.5 (-186)

That alone pays even money and not a bad start to an open parlay campaign.

That's an interesting thought KVB.
I'm feeling a little Otter(ish) today and will add Yankees to the parlay mix. Pays +176 odds.

New York Yankees G Cole vs Detroit Tigers C Mize05/28/21 19:10 EDT
New York Yankees -270 Listed



Brooklyn Nets vs Boston Celtics05/28/21 20:35 EDT
Brooklyn Nets -340



Minnesota Wild vs Vegas Golden Knights05/28/21 21:08 EDT
Minnesota Wild +1.5 (-180)

[KVB]

Two parlays here with Brooklyn's ML and Minnesota's PL being wheeled with Kansas City's RL...

				1 unit
				per bet
563		28-May	BRK -315
35			MIN +1.5 (-183)
			----Pays +1.037
563		28-May	BRK -315
35			MIN +1.5 (-183)
917			KC +1.5 (-143)
			----Pays +2.462

Let's fukkin gooooo!!!!

[degennn]

I'm on all 3 under

Bos ny clips ats

And all 6 in a parlay

[degennn]

Alex molcan +1.5 sets +750

[Tanko]

That's an interesting thought KVB.
I'm feeling a little Otter(ish) today and will add Yankees to the parlay mix. Pays +176 odds.

New York Yankees G Cole vs Detroit Tigers C Mize05/28/21 19:10 EDT
New York Yankees -270 Listed



Brooklyn Nets vs Boston Celtics05/28/21 20:35 EDT
Brooklyn Nets -340



Minnesota Wild vs Vegas Golden Knights05/28/21 21:08 EDT
Minnesota Wild +1.5 (-180)

Fuk’n lost every leg.

[KVB]

Brooklyn and minnesota berried me on that parlay.

[degennn]

Brooklyn and minnesota berried me on that parlay.

O well. Today is a new day

[KVB]

Wasn't around much today for discussion.

Tonight I have Memphis as a Contrarian Fund play. Lost with Mia earlier. It was just like last time, I thought it would be a sweep and was hoping Mia wouldn't qualify and trigger in the Fund. This time they did.

Here it is so far. I'm still a little ticked about that SA push, because I could have gotten for 4.5, but I went for the (-101)...

				1 Unit
	Record	Date	NBA Contrarian Fund Playoffs	per bet
567		19-May	SA +4 (-101)	0
579		21-May	MEM +5 (-108)	0.93
501		23-May	ATL +1.5 (-110)	0.91
543		26-May	ATL +2 (-103)	-1
872		29-May	MIA +5 (-110)	-1
578		29-May	MEM +5.5 (-110)

Atl couldn't pay twice. Can Memphis?

[degennn]

I'll play memphis