When to invest more capital?

[dmm]

Just wondering about thoughts on investing personal funds into sports wagering.

I'm a fairly small potatoes bettor who has grinded an initial $1k bankroll into $15k and only play with house money at this point. This is on a 1000 wager sample size, and 250k volume for a ROI around 6% -- higher than booking on the other side of the counter. I'm fairly certain the math and my code is on my side here. It's a fun side hustle and I love the math/puzzle element.

Should I invest more capital or just continue increasing my bankroll using just house money? Find credit outs?

Scaling this up may also be more trouble than it's worth. I don't expect all my outs to continue to take limit wagers. Will this turn into what feels like a job? Should I just go into finance where all the real money/liquidity is as a trader/programmer? I also realize that my advantages in sports wagering could disappear quickly. The current time investment is also significant.

I respect everyone here on SBR and would like to hear your opinions.

[MinnesotaFats]

Well...

If you cash out and quit right now, you'd be one of the only gamblers who have a career + in sports betting. So there's that angle.

Are you wagering on a money mgt system like Fibinachi sequence or Martingale or did you simply pick more winners than losers? I guess if you've got some model to picking 58% winners then run w it, but if you're doing a money mgmt system keep it within your means. It's all great untill you drop 7 or 8 in a row, it happens.

[Vyasports]

Just wondering about thoughts on investing personal funds into sports wagering.

I'm a fairly small potatoes bettor who has grinded an initial $1k bankroll into $15k and only play with house money at this point. This is on a 1000 wager sample size, and 250k volume for a ROI around 6% -- higher than booking on the other side of the counter. I'm fairly certain the math and my code is on my side here. It's a fun side hustle and I love the math/puzzle element.

Should I invest more capital or just continue increasing my bankroll using just house money? Find credit outs?

Scaling this up may also be more trouble than it's worth. I don't expect all my outs to continue to take limit wagers. Will this turn into what feels like a job? Should I just go into finance where all the real money/liquidity is as a trader/programmer? I also realize that my advantages in sports wagering could disappear quickly. The current time investment is also significant.

I respect everyone here on SBR and would like to hear your opinions.

First, I would like to say that "house money" is actually YOUR money, you won it, it's yours. If you feel it is not yours then you may feel like it is okay to lose it. Always remember it is your money (now) so invest it properly and NEVER ever bet for fun.
For your main question; When to invest more capital?
What I do is I just follow one principle when it comes to money management (bankroll I have in my accounts); I would invest a percentage of the bankroll per day (not per play).
Example: let's say i have 5 betting accounts from different books; and the total bankroll of all 5 accounts is 5K. I would use/bet 5% of that bankroll per day. After every bets have been settled, if my bankroll is now 6K the bet amounts will automatically increase BUT the percentage will stay the same (5%) per day. And obviously if the bankroll decrease then the bets amount will decrease... I hope i'm making myself clear... you do not need more capital unless your bankroll is zero.

[TheMetsSuck]

Cash out 50% and roll the dice. If you have to make hand thread you know you are already going to press so take out some winnings first

[dmm]

Well...

If you cash out and quit right now, you'd be one of the only gamblers who have a career + in sports betting. So there's that angle.

Are you wagering on a money mgt system like Fibinachi sequence or Martingale or did you simply pick more winners than losers? I guess if you've got some model to picking 58% winners then run w it, but if you're doing a money mgmt system keep it within your means. It's all great untill you drop 7 or 8 in a row, it happens.

Hey Minny, thanks for your response!
Martingale is a losing strategy over time, from what I've read. The math is negative EV in any game of chance and sports wagering. I've never seen Fibinachi applied to sports betting. I'm familiar with the sequence from a high level -- it appears in everywhere in the universe/nature and possibly in financial markets, but that is way beyond my ape brain understanding of math. If I had that kind of advantage, I'm sure it would be much more profitable elsewhere. Do you have any interesting articles or papers on it that apply Fibonacci to sports markets? If it's just some nonsense betting sequence similar to Martingale, it obviously has no positive EV.
My win percentage is a couple percent below 50%, as I mostly bet moneylines instead of spreads. I haven't gone back and calculated what my advantage would be betting ATS, but the overall ROI would be comparable as ML is closely correlated to spreads.

[thomorino]

Capital has a relative value so the question is a personal one. Some people can bet higher returns investing stocks, bonds, real estate, and other asset classes. Some people get a higher return investing my in their own business. Everyone has a different return on investment in different field based on their abilities. You should ask yourself where your highest too is.

[rm18]

If you try to bet big it is harder because can't get as good of a price, but I don't see sports betting and stocks to be that similar although stocks are kind of easy just because it is a + sum game.

[jjgold]

If you try to bet big it is harder because can't get as good of a price, but I don't see sports betting and stocks to be that similar although stocks are kind of easy just because it is a + sum game.

only long term stocks work, daily trading you lose everything

Maybe up account another 10k, increases bet sizes and see how it goes tough to get hurt that way

[ChuckyTheGoat]

only long term stocks work, daily trading you lose everything

Maybe up account another 10k, increases bet sizes and see how it goes tough to get hurt that way

Spoken like a true loser.

OP already stated that he cleared a nice profit. As if that's alien to u.

[RudyRuetigger]

It depends on your current job and if you need money or if you have extra

[d2bets]

Just wondering about thoughts on investing personal funds into sports wagering.

I'm a fairly small potatoes bettor who has grinded an initial $1k bankroll into $15k and only play with house money at this point. This is on a 1000 wager sample size, and 250k volume for a ROI around 6% -- higher than booking on the other side of the counter. I'm fairly certain the math and my code is on my side here. It's a fun side hustle and I love the math/puzzle element.

Should I invest more capital or just continue increasing my bankroll using just house money? Find credit outs?

Scaling this up may also be more trouble than it's worth. I don't expect all my outs to continue to take limit wagers. Will this turn into what feels like a job? Should I just go into finance where all the real money/liquidity is as a trader/programmer? I also realize that my advantages in sports wagering could disappear quickly. The current time investment is also significant.

I respect everyone here on SBR and would like to hear your opinions.

Are you actually now making "limit" wagers? Doesn't sound like it, unless your limits are incredibly low.

We'd need to know more about what exactly what your betting on, what your outs are, etc, to make any informed opinion. But if you do in fact have that expected ROI edge and you're able to bet more and expect that doing so won't kill the golden goose, and you have the capital to put in....then I'd say you'd be crazy to not to do so. The time investment will be much more worthwhile betting more.

These people talking about taking some money out and only investing a % of bankroll, etc. either: (a) have very limited funds, and/or (b) can't even fathom what it means to bet +EV and have an edge.

Fact is when have have +EV you simply want to bet as much as possible and you're really only limited by wager limits and being concerned with being further limited. At that point it's more art than science in terms of trying to gauge how each book will react to your play.

[pologq]

this is a good thread and very informative. thanks OP for asking. i like the responses.

[KVB]

Like some are saying, it really does depend on your situation. But first you must address some flaws in thinking.

Defining your “bankroll” is a first step.

Most will define it as that which you can afford to lose. Not sure you’ve done that here.

Another, very serious mistake is not recognizing that you have been investing more capital the whole time, but I’m not sure you’ve increased your units to match it. There’s no such thing as “house money” as that “house money” is actually your money, you won it.

Make no mistake, the very next bet you make after winning and getting positive is not with someone else’s money, it’s with your money. So you now have 15 times your original bank roll and you don’t credit yourself with investing more money since the beginning? Think about that.

Curiously, after increasing your bankroll 15 times did you change your bet size along the way?

Be careful with variance after a good run you don’t want to regress to a normal win percentage or ROI with bigger bets. It’s very possible you could have a winning percentage, better than break even, but because your bet size you may have nothing to show for it.

This is just the beginning. Picking winners is the easy part of sports betting, while money management in the face of success just might be the hardest.

Once you to find your bank roll and your investment, pound the winners.

I’ll add more later after some discussion and when I get a chance.

As always, Good Luck.

[KVB]

First, I would like to say that "house money" is actually YOUR money, you won it, it's yours. If you feel it is not yours then you may feel like it is okay to lose it. Always remember it is your money (now) so invest it properly and NEVER ever bet for fun...

Can’t emphasize the truth of the statement enough, so many people really do get it wrong. Those that argue that they didn’t expect to win therefore it’s just “house money“ are really just setting themselves up with a rationalization for losing it.

Many feel more comfortable using someone else’s money than their own and to tell themselves it’s someone else’s like “the House” just helps shield them from the tragedy of loss.

[marcoloco]

Pull everything you can out of your HELOC, get a 2nd mortgage and use the kidos college fund. If you are risking it all, now you are really gambling.

[dmm]

Great responses here, I didn't expect this post to get so much interest! Thanks to all who responded.

[dmm]

Can’t emphasize the truth of the statement enough, so many people really do get it wrong. Those that argue that they didn’t expect to win therefore it’s just “house money“ are really just setting themselves up with a rationalization for losing it.
Many feel more comfortable using someone else’s money than their own and to tell themselves it’s someone else’s like “the House” just helps shield them from the tragedy of loss.

Appreciate these comments on "house money", Vyasports and KVB. Something to think about, for sure. I probably do look at it that way to cushion the blow of losing it all. Or maybe the fear of a book stiffing me.

[dmm]

So you now have 15 times your original bank roll and you don’t credit yourself with investing more money since the beginning? Think about that.
Curiously, after increasing your bankroll 15 times did you change your bet size along the way?

I think at this point I haven't invested more because I'm still learning and making plenty of mistakes. I've only been doing this for around 15 months.

Yes, I've increased bet size as my bankroll has grown.

[Eddy Munny]

What are you betting on?

[dmm]

What are you betting on?

I'll bet on anything where I think there's an edge, but my main focus is NBA. Hoping to diversify more in the future as NBA will be done in July.

[TommieGunshot]

Lot of good stuff.

Definitely agree that there is no such thing as house money.

$15k is less than one year of minimum wage labor. There is a lot of room to put more money into accounts and bet more and earn more.

To earn the equivalent of full time income, it probably should start to feel like a full time job. Is that something you can handle? It is especially astute to notice that the places you are currently finding edges could disappear tomorrow. But there will be other places you can find them. May have to work hard and smart to find them.

It is very true there is far more money in financial markets. But that makes them somewhat incomparable. You beat the sportsbooks by over 10% (4.5% commission and you won 6%) and earned $14,000. If you beat financial markets by that much for a few years, that could make you $14,000,000. And eventually $14,000,000,000 if you make a career doing that. For me, I'll just earn a few thousand betting, then put some of it into ETF type stuff and let that do it's thing. Just because I can find a good number when buying an NBA alternate total does not mean I could have any clue finding a good number to buy stocks or crypto or whatever.

[biggie12]

cashout and let that money sit in $dent watch ur money grow and save yourself hours of "handicapping"

[paulll]

thx for great responses!

[Roger T. Bannon]

If you have maintained proper bankroll management during this run, you should make money and it would be worth adding funds. However, if you have been making limit bets, your return is fairly meaningless.

But if you have won over 1,000 bets it is fairly unlikely that you would not continue to at least break even which is still profitable if you take bonuses.

As long as you like doing it, I would continue and add funds. Not much to make investing these days anyway unless you just want to buy bitcoin and hold it and get really rich.

[Roger T. Bannon]

Since you seem to be the math type and likely have kept a record of all your bets, I would go back and recalculate what your return would be starting from scratch with your initial $1,000 with a $10 bet on each bet. If this produces a substantially positive return, you are very likely to win and should add money. If not, it is all a fluke.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Risking money on any game of chance is just that. A chance, a risk. Just like risking spending money on real estate or the stock market. Calculate your risk to reward and evaluate your appetite for said risk. Putting all your eggs in one basket is usually a bad move. Spread out your risk and readjust as you gain more information.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Since you seem to be the math type and likely have kept a record of all your bets, I would go back and recalculate what your return would be starting from scratch with your initial $1,000 with a $10 bet on each bet. If this produces a substantially positive return, you are very likely to win and should add money. If not, it is all a fluke.

Gambling is ALWAYS a fluke. You could be on an epic run for days, months, years and have it all come crashing down on one play if you are not disciplined or rational.

[Roger T. Bannon]

I will also add that if you are betting NBA, your chances of winning are basically zero.

[Roger T. Bannon]

Gambling is ALWAYS a fluke. You could be on an epic run for days, months, years and have it all come crashing down on one play if you are not disciplined or rational.

No, there are ways of making that determination. If you practice proper bankroll management, you are not going to have any fluke success and you can measure your CLV to determine your ability to beat the line. If you are half ass betting, it is all a fluke.

[dmm]

I will also add that if you are betting NBA, your chances of winning are basically zero.

That's the conventional wisdom, yes. I agree that NBA sides/totals/MLs are highly liquid and quite efficient. Probably only second to NFL in major North American sports markets.

Having said that, there are certain weaknesses that can be exploited. Also consider derivative and proposition markets -- less liquidity and efficiency, but of course with the downside of lower limits and increased heat from books.

I can assure you that the chances of winning in NBA markets is non-zero and are also high enough to overcome the vig and turn out consistent profit.

[dmm]

cashout and let that money sit in $dent watch ur money grow and save yourself hours of "handicapping"

I'm a tech guy, but I don't follow crypto closely at all. Have never considered it as an investment and only use it currently to move funds between outs.

[dmm]

Pull everything you can out of your HELOC, get a 2nd mortgage and use the kidos college fund. If you are risking it all, now you are really gambling.

That still seems a little tame. Should I consider stealing $25k from an ex-girlfriend to fund my gambling? I've heard that's a popular thing around here..

[Mac4Lyfe]

No, there are ways of making that determination. If you practice proper bankroll management, you are not going to have any fluke success and you can measure your CLV to determine your ability to beat the line. If you are half ass betting, it is all a fluke.

Unless you are the house and the vig is in your favor, you will always be on the wrong side of a bet.

[Roger T. Bannon]

That's the conventional wisdom, yes. I agree that NBA sides/totals/MLs are highly liquid and quite efficient. Probably only second to NFL in major North American sports markets.

Having said that, there are certain weaknesses that can be exploited. Also consider derivative and proposition markets -- less liquidity and efficiency, but of course with the downside of lower limits and increased heat from books.

I can assure you that the chances of winning in NBA markets is non-zero and are also high enough to overcome the vig and turn out consistent profit.

I'll take your word for it. Proceed accordingly.

[dmm]

Unless you are the house and the vig is in your favor, you will always be on the wrong side of a bet.

That's just not true. As Roger says, if you're consistently beating closing lines over a large sample size, while also practicing proper bankroll management, you're going to be on the "right side" and profitable.