Happy 2021 MLB New Year All

[stevenash]

I like Houston tonight with Greinke.

I'm not going to get long winded here.
The pitching matchup is a serious mismatch and so are the offenses.

Houston checks all the boxes and is my play tonight.
HOUSTON -119

[stevenash]

I got nothing today.
And I'm not going to force a play.

The LA SD game is the only really good game today and that's pretty much a pick.
Cole is -243, fuk that.
Most of the card today is mediocre #3 and #4 rotation guys squaring off against each other at or around pick 'em.
(or so it seems)

Hit my Astro play last night.
YTD 13-5
(+9.20*)

[frankieunits2685]

Well done, Nash.

[stevenash]

Thank you sir.

[stevenash]

Going with KC and Duffy tonight.

Both the Duff Man (2-0) and KC are off to a good start, Royals siting in first place at 9-5.
TBR starts a left handed pitcher too (Josh Reynolds) who has shown flashes of brilliance.
I don't want to mislead anyone Reynolds can be tough at times, but KC sticks can hit LHP, KCR is at home, and the game is a pick.

Anytime I can get Duffy at home against an ordinary team at pick 'em (Tampa Bay) I'll take it.
KCR is undervalued here.

Kansas City -110

[Miguelon]

any MLB pick today sir? thanks

[stevenash]

any MLB pick today sir? thanks

Yeah, just one.
Red Sox -102

Sox matchup well vs. Ryu the LHP

Sorry about the delay I get busy with other stuff at times and neglect to update this thread.

[spippen]

Yes and Ryu is overweight and gets exhausted after just a couple innings!

[stevenash]

OK
Ryu got clubbed by the Red Sox yesterday as I suspected, that game was a 'W' for your pal Nasher.
My beloved KC Royals shit the bed on me Monday for a -110 loss.

Updated YTD 14-6 (+9.10*)

I see the game in Cincinnati is delayed by snow.
It's 30 degrees in Pittsburg and Denver.
Some cities it should be illegal to have April baseball.

Passing on the day games, what I like may be weather affected.

Be back later, six games tonight.

[RudyRuetigger]

nice record...per usual for you






just posting so i can keep up with picks (easier for me to find thread)



any chance we can get in on some of the player props as well

[stevenash]

nice record...per usual for you






just posting so i can keep up with picks (easier for me to find thread)



any chance we can get in on some of the player props as well

Yeah, I had two Red Sox last night, Xander and JD
Both paid off but did not post them so I can't count them.

[kostasblues]

Keep it up stevenash!

[Miguelon]

[johnnyvegas13]

Glad u r doing well in ur sport nash

[spippen]

Good work

[Tomatero]

Cheers buddy 🍻

[stevenash]

^
Thanks man.

I don't want to force a play but today's card is utter trash.

The pick 'em games (or close to pick) are a complete dart throw.
And the chalk is too chalky and I can't get a good enough price to fade on the other side.

I won't make a play just for the sake of making a play.

The good news it the weekend card is fully loaded Fri-Sun.

Passing on the night games.

[SerG1230]

Good thread, will pay attention!

[stevenash]

Back in the day when I first started doing this for shits and giggles. when I had a full set of hair and the T-Rex roamed my back yard the old timers taught me the real season starts after about 20 games when most of the teams starters made their third start.

Most teams are at or near the twenty game mark with the exception of the Mets who've had a few COVID related postponements.

There are a few surprises for sure, that's to be expected, like we pretty much knew LA and SD would rule the NL West (and they are so far)
We knew the Yankees had flaws but didn't think they would be this bad (so far)

KC should come as no surprise to many, we all knew they upgraded their roster, that they would win most of the 9-8 type games, that they can rake with the best of them, but really can't pitch a lick.

But I digress. (as usual)

Getting back to my opening point, 20 games in (or thereabouts) there are 76 pitchers that have made three or more starts.
76 pitchers are on pace to qualify for pitching pitching titles at the end of the year (162 IP min.)

Here's what jumps out.

We were told to keep an eye on the Brewers Woodruff and Burnes (sounds like a law firm) that they will be the next big things, but wow, did we expect this good?

Another one that jumps out is why on God's Earth does Mike Foltynewicz still have a MLB job?
8 homers allowed in three starts and nobody else is close. He's been trash for years.

Of the aforementioned 76 starters only six of them have not given up a homerun, three of them are the usual suspects, but never would I have though I would see Johnny Cueto, Kyle Gibson, and Nathan Eovaldi on that list.
Oh sure Eovaldi has that 100 mph fastball and all, but it's usually straight as an arrow.

Anyways...

45 games this weekend.
15 today (Friday) 15 Saturday, and 15 Sunday.

That's 90 different starting pitchers to look at in 3 days.
Too many to do in one or even two sittings.
I have to apply filters, weed out certain games as I go along.

Of the 15 games today (30 starters) 11 of the starters are left handed.
I have had success handicapping lefties, I seek those games out.
Back in the day, you know when I had hair and all I was a catcher when I was in school.
I used to catch lefties, my dad was a lefty, I married a lefty, I think I pretty much know lefties.
They are funky, they think differently, they throw the ball at righties at weird angles.
There are certain teams and hitters that have major success against them most don't, well because like I said they are funky.

The lefty games I'm looking at is the Red Sox against Seattle.
Both start lefties, earlier in this thread I pointed out the heart of the Sox order (JD and Xander) destroy LHP and must be considered in player props.

The Reds who lead the universe in HR's face a lefty in Kin (Cards) but the Reds really don't kill LHP (except Nick the Greek) and I'm passing.

The afternoon game, the Cubs are facing the Brewers LH Brian Anderson.
Cubs can hit the lefties some, wind is blowing out to left center at 11 MPH, not crazy about laying the 145 or 150 but I can see the over 9.5 cashing.

I especially got my eye on Mike Minor and KC over Detroit.
Minor is not Koufax or Kershaw but I can trust him against the Tigers on the road at a very reasonable -108

Speaking of Kershaw the game of the night is LA v. Darvish.
I'm tempted to try SD at home with Darvish getting +133

I'm looking at the red hot A's (11 straight now)
What did Crash Davis say in Bull Durham "respect the streak"

The Yankees and Indians (I refuse to call them the "Cleveland Baseball Team) start a pair of lefties.
Sorry, but until proven otherwise the Yanks are a fade, and if you think I'm laying -142 with Jordan Montgomery you got rocks in your head.

Matz (Jays) a lefty starts against Glasnow (not a lefty) Rays who can't be faded as he IMO is a top three pitcher in the game right now.

Finally, the best pitcher in the game right now is Jacob deGrom who is -310 against Washington
Neither pitchers are lefties but do I need to say it again?

You are begging for trouble if you lay 3:1 on any standalone MLB baseball game (deGrom or no deGrom)
And you are just asking for death if you lay 3:1 on a pitcher whose team has a penchant of not giving him any run support, like ever.
Poor guy is cursed pitching for the Mets, any place else he's a yearly 24 game winner.

OK.

I'll be back when I see the player props in the Red Sox game.
I think there's money to be made there if the props aren't juiced to the heavens.

But I do like KC tonight, no play there (yet)

[frankieunits2685]

Love the write-ups, Nash!

[stevenash]

You don't have to tail me here, you don't have to fade me here either it's your money and I'll never tell you what to do with it.
But I think I have found a very sneaky play here and I'm going to lock it in now.

Miami at San Francisco.

a) Miami is a good left handed pitcher hitting team.
.280 overall as a unit through 18 games (49 for 175)

b) Don't sleep on Miami's Sandy Alcantara.
He's making his fourth start of the year, had a ND loss on opening day to Tyler Glasnow.
Pretty much matched Glasnow pitch for pitch, Alcantara threw six innings of shutout ball allowing just two hits, Glasnow threw six innings of shutout ball allowing just one hit. Both starters did not figure in the decision won by TB 1-0.
Great pitchers duel.

Overall this season Alcantara has a solid K ratio (over 10 per 9 IP)
Rock solid WH/IP ratio (under 0.91) has allowed just one stingy homerun and sports an 0-1 record with a couple of ND's.
He had a very good COVID shortened 2020 seasons in the seven starts he made.

Alex Wood once a relevant Dodger starter in 2017 regressed in 2018, got hammered in 2019, had a poor 2020 and a shell of a pitcher he once was.

Wood (a lefty as mentioned) is making his second start 0f 2021, his first start (last week) was good pitching five innings allowing three hits.
Good enough for the win.

I'll take the plus money here with a good lefty hitting lineup and a unknown named but reliable starter in Alcantara.

Let's not get crazy here.

Miami +119
1*

Still waiting for those Red Sox player props to be posted.

[Smoke]

oh wow Steve that's a ballsy play right there

also what do you think of the line moment in the royals game?

[jjgold]

common theme
dogs

[stevenash]

also what do you think of the line moment in the royals game?

Little bouncy, not really that unusual.

It went from what -.08 to -.04 up to .-12?

The weird line movement of the day was the Cubs total.
9.5 (juiced) to 9 flat, to 9.5 under juiced to the heavens (-120)
Next thing you know I look up and the Cubbies hang a ten burger in the first two innings.
I'm like "WTF?"

[Chief Wahoo]

I totally agree. Appreciate the write ups!!

Love the write-ups, Nash!

[stevenash]

What's up fellas.

There's too many day games today and I have a lot going on around here so I can't devote an hour or two to this here thread today.
You know real life happens and all.

The posted play (Miami) bit the dust, no fault of Alcantara's Miami just can't score runs for him.
He's solid though.
I'll update my YTD is a minute, I think I'm 5 over, (more or less) I'll do the accurate accounting in a bit.
Had a small play on Minor (pardon the pun) that cashed, and had a couple of tiny props on Red Sox hitters (vs. LHP) they cashed.
I will not include them in my running YTD because I did not post them.

Just a heads up guys, if you see an opposing starter that throws left against Boston, always consider using Xander and JD in props, they destroy LHP.
(I said consider, not do it, but consider it)

I'm looking at the two high profile games tonight.

Yankees - Cole
Indians - Bieber

I'm an old school catcher.
I live for pitchers duels.
That's got the makings of a classic.

Cole -.16
Bieber +06

Total 6.5 runs.

Looks like the Yanks are starting to get their groove back.
All thing being equal in both the starters I then look at the 'pens and then the offense.
Cole neutralizes Bieber, that's pretty much a wash, Yanks have the superior 'pen and much better hitting.
I am strongly considering NYY tonight is a game that's pretty much a man to man pick 'em.

I'm also considering SD again tonight.
Snell and Bauer are on the same pitching tier, there is no clear cut advantage.
But I like SD because at +138 now it's a good value( that's just my opinion)
Opinions are like assholes, everybody has one. And trust me, my shit does stink, when I go on a cooler it's ugly, so my opinion is just that, my opinion.

And when you get right down to it, isn't the essence of there message boards opinion driven.

There you have it, I like SD, and I like NYY, not posted as of yet, but that's the way I am leaning.

Hey look at that, KC just pushed across two runs in the sixth.
Sucks being a KC fan, we're good for a couple or so seasons every quarter century.
We're getting good again.
(Mahomes by the way some of you know, some of you don't, is a minority owner of the new KC Royals ownership group)

OK, I'm out, be back later.

[Miguelon]

¿Algún trabajo esta noche, señor?

[Orbison]

steve just curious if you're on vacation or perhaps taking a break from MLB right now?