Happy 2021 MLB New Year All

[stevenash]

Great work Nash

nice under Nasher

Thank you both fellas.
Appreciate the encouragement.
Best of luck tonight and going forward.

[stevenash]

Pirates got seven in the second.
Ouch!

That’ll pretty much end my streak at eight.
Sorry for the dud.

Tomorrow we’ll crank it up again.

[KnuckleHeadz]

Pirates got seven in the second.
Ouch!

That’ll pretty much end my streak at eight.
Sorry for the dud.

Tomorrow we’ll crank it up again.

Need to fill last leg in parlay..
Dodgers or Reds Nash?

[spippen]

Pirates could still blow this game and they are likely to lose a bunch again even if they pull off this win

[stevenash]

Need to fill last leg in parlay..
Dodgers or Reds Nash?

I’m getting a bad vibe from Cincy tonight.
Why don’t you close that out tomorrow when there’s a full slate.
Truth be told I’m not feeling either of tonight’s late games.

[KnuckleHeadz]

I’m getting a bad vibe from Cincy tonight.
Why don’t you close that out tomorrow when there’s a full slate.
Truth be told I’m not feeling either of tonight’s late games.

Me neither... why it’s been open since yesterday afternoon.. was out the house early today so I’ve only had this afternoon to look at and not much I like and Reds blew that big lead last night to come back and win and I just don’t trust my team against lefties and Mookie is out as well

[stevenash]

Great matchup today.
Max v. Kershaw

Anytime you have two future Hall of Fame pitchers going against each other you have my attention.
I live for these mashups.

I have a couple of strong leans so far.
All day games today except that ESPN Sunday night thing.

Wrapping things up now, back shortly.

[mikmik]

Thanks as always Stevie

[stevenash]

Thanks as always Stevie

Glad to help.
I enjoy my baseball writing, I just don't do this here.
Been doing it since I was a teen.
I have a few passions, numbers, baseball, writing (such a geek I am, I know). I combine them all.
Love my detective drama and Indie rock music as well but I digress.
I make a few dollars on the outside doing this, but don't pm and ask where (SBR doesn't like that) and I won't self promote here as well.
No, I don't sell plays either, I detest pay for plays scams. I write, I blog, and I'm about to launch a podcast with my baseball partner.
I'm an IT Operations Analyst by trade, this is just a side hustle.

I appreciate your words.
Thank you.

KC / CWS OVER 8.5 is my play of the day.

I'll explain why in a few but it's Sunday morning and I have real life things that need attention that's a tad more important.
All good.


KC / CWS OVER 8.5 RUNS

Missed badly with the Cubs yesterday (Hey, I'm not going to win them all)
YTD 8-2 (+6.91*)

[stevenash]

Even though the MLB season started a week and a half ago on a Thursday April 1 most MLB people (me included) consider those Thu-Sun games (4/1-4/4) as the start of week one which ended yesterday 4/11.
You had COVID 3 game series postponements, you had snow outs...

Dropped my CWS total bet yesterday (-108 reduced juice) to close out the first full week at 8-3 (+5.84*)

Dropped my first bet on opening day, then hit two dogs right after that and went on a 8 and 0 run, now dropped my last two.

It's going to be a season of runs (pardon the pun) for me it looks like.
I wrote this before baseball is one serious 6 month, 162 game grind.
Ride the highs and press a little when on a heater, accept the lows don't press and keep it simple when you're on a cooler.

That my formula for a six month grind, but that's just me and I don't expect anybody else to be just like me, be like you is what I say, there's only one of you

I'm thrilled to be 8 and 3 after one full week. The first few weeks of the MLB seasons are always very tricky.
I know, I've been doing this for a long time.

When you consider that 60 game clusterfuck of a COVID season last year it makes this one even trickier.
I guarantee you I'll go on six or so heaters this year, and conversely I'll go on six or so coolers this year too.
It's what you do in-between is the important thing.
Just like I say about all baseball teams.
All 30 teams will win 60 games (with very rare exceptions) and all 30 teams will lose 60 games.
That's pretty much guaranteed.
It's what they do with the other 42 games will define your season.

OK, I'm done doing what I do best, that being very long winded as my mantra has always been "brevity has never been my forte"



14 game loaded slate today.
One matinee and 13 night games.

I love todays card, it has a little of everything.
Aces, hamburgers, lefties, and on and on.
The day game has my attention.

Red Sox at Twins

Red hot Red Sox who have been raking like crazy the past six games.
Dropped their first three, now riding a six game win streak scoring 53 runs while doing so.
That's some serious raking. Xander and especially JD Martinez have been killing it.
Did you catch Martinez in that post game presser yesterday?
He pretty much said "some writers have been disrespecting me and I'm on a mission."
I'll say!

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/31239374/boston-red-sox-slugger-jd-martinez-mission-leave-2020-struggles-behind

Both teams this afternoon start left handers.
(J.A.Happ and Martin Perez)

What did Kevin Costner say in Bull Durham "respect the streak"
I can't fade the six game win streak but I sure as hell can't back Martin Perez.
I'll be kind, Perez is both a left handed pooching bag and a hamburger.
Minnesota might very well have the most lethal line up in the AL.
They are loaded, and they have sticks that know what to do against crappy LHP.

Like I said, the Sox are crushing it as well and found their footing big time.
And they can kill LHP too as Happ is also not a Sandy Koufax LHP either.

I can't play either side, the line makers know full well both teams can crush it and there's two not very good LHP starting. of course the total is going to be sky high. 9 and 9.5 right now.
(be careful as I've learned over the years two crap pitchers doesn't automatically mean a guaranteed 'over' cash)

I'm leaning over here, but it's a lean and not a play (yet)

What I'm waiting for (3 hours now before first pitch) are JD Martinez props and Nelson Cruz props.
Cruz and Martinez are the two premier lefty killers in the game today.
They'll both get their licks in 3 (I hope 4) times today against crappy LHP.

Take a look at these power numbers vs. LHP the past three seasons.
The sample size is ample. The numbers are real.

Season	Name	Tm	G	PA	AB	H	1B	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
Total	J.D. Martinez	BOS	181	378	328	113	62	21	1	29	70	79	42	79	0.344512
Total	Nelson Cruz	2 Tms	161	361	301	95	48	13	1	33	59	62	50	67	0.315615

*note* Stay away from the HR props as they are always ridiculously juiced to the heavens.

As a numbers geek this game has grabbed me by the throat, it has my attention.
It's a stats lover wet dream.

Mr. Clock on the Wall says it's time to tend to my real life and family business.
I have to run for now, I'll be back in a couple of hours, hopefully those two props will be posted someplace, right now Heritage and others don't have them up yet.

Hey!
Thanks for reading, I appreciate it.
It's who I am, it's what I do.
And best of luck.

[KnuckleHeadz]

13MPH wind blowing straight out as well..
Thanks for the great write up Nash

[johnnyvegas13]

Nash leaning over and twins

whatcha think !???

[stevenash]

13MPH wind blowing straight out as well..
Thanks for the great write up Nash

Appreciate the words.
Thank you.

Going to fart around with a prop or two.
No play on the side, the total is inching up to 9,5 -120.
Pass.
Going to have a little fun with one or two of these props for short money.

All these player props are over/under H+R=RBI 2.5

Cruz over -105
JD Martinez +125

Xander Bogaert's prop is over/under 2 (H+R+RBI)
Which smells like a push to me and will pass since I don't play for a push.

I'm going to plunk a 20 dollar bet on Cruz or JD.
JD +125 is sucking me in though.

This is going to be a fun game.

Hey!
I thank you all for your words and encouragement.

[pilebuck13]

Mets -132 don’t make much sense there

[stevenash]

Mets -132 don’t make much sense there

Two teams stick out.
SF for the time being is s tail or pass.
NYM for the time being is a fade or pass.

I can get + money on the KC series (at home) vs. LAA
I like + money on home teams.
Looking at that too but I have eight hours to decide.

I love baseball props, it's a stats guy paradise.
Sometimes the books will hang a soft number.
I seek out soft props numbers, they can be had if you put in the work.

[stevenash]

Had two plays yesterday.
One got rained out (Seattle) and the Sox game got protested out.

That protest postponement really pissed me off as I was really6 looking forward to that matchup.
They'll try again this afternoon, both teams will start the same aformentioned lefty gas cans that I wrote up in post #150.
No need to write that up again.

17 games today.
That includes two double headers.
I can't break down 34 different starters in one sitting so I'm dividing it up.
Counting the 6:30pm EST start (San Diego vs. Pittsburg) there are 7 day games and 10 night games.

I'm throwing out the SD game.
SD with Snell are a whopping -240 road faves.
Do I really need to go into the reasons not to lay that kind of chalk again?
Do I?
I can't do anything with that game, even the run line is priced to the bejesus.
Pass

The Red Sox / Twins game is already written up.

Seattle has a traditional double dip make up doubleheader in Baltimore.
I hate these new 7 inning double header rules.
I'm leaning M's with Sheffield in the first game.
I'll get back to that, Means can be tough too.

Dopey Heritage has that listed as an interleague game.
Did I miss the memo where the Mariners bolted the American League and hooked up with the National League?
Silly mistake on Heritage's part there.

Phillies have a double dip against the Mets in NY today too.
Once again I hate the new 7 inning rule as I have to handicap those 7 inning games differently.
I like Chase Anderson over Walker there.

Oakland and Arizona is a pick.
It's a pick because the game is a pick IMO
I see zero edge there.
Big fat pass.

Now the night games (10 of them) feature some outstanding pitching/

My boy Giolito (CWS) is at home against Bieber.
That's a monster matchup and I can't wait for that one.

You like pitching?
Flaherty (StL) squares up against Strasburg (Cards at home)

To a lesser extent but still a nice matchup
Hendricks (CHC) visits MIL with Woodruff
What did I tell you about Woodruff last week, he's the real deal.

I'm a KC fan.
My guy is the Duff-man (ooh yeah)
Danny Duffy and KC home at the 'K' vs. Dylan Bundy and the Halo's with his buddies Ohtani, that fella Mike Trout, and the rest.
I've got my eye on that one too.

Castillo toes the rubber for Cincy.
And that nut job Trevor Bauer gets the ball for the Dodgers too.

There's some mighty, mighty good baseball tonight.

Had no action last night as everything I like got postponed.
YTD is still 8-3 (5.84*)

One play this afternoon.
PHILLIES +123 (Chase Anderson) over METS

Be back later, lunch time than I have to tend to real life business.

[Smoke]

Good write up Stevie

[stevenash]

Good write up Stevie

Thanks Smokey

[EDDIE MONEY LINE]

good luck, i think mets win game 1 and philly wins game 2 with Nola.

[KnuckleHeadz]

So yesterday JD’s prop was over 2.5 and today we get 2 for HRE.

Cruz was 2.5 at EV and today we get 2.5 at +120

[stevenash]

So yesterday JD’s prop was over 2.5 and today we get 2 for HRE.

Cruz was 2.5 at EV and today we get 2.5 at +120

All the props were taken down.
7 inning double header rule.
Total yesterday was 9.5 today is 8 flat

I detest the seven inning rule, it changes the way I handicap and I’ve been handicapping the same way for years.

I like to say “change is good” but this change sucks.

[johnnyvegas13]

Nash I am tailing Philly and will chase tonight if they lose

hopefully they just win here

[stevenash]

Nash I am tailing Philly and will chase tonight if they lose

hopefully they just win here

I like a few dogs tonight.

[KnuckleHeadz]

All the props were taken down.
7 inning double header rule.
Total yesterday was 9.5 today is 8 flat

I detest the seven inning rule, it changes the way I handicap and I’ve been handicapping the same way for years.

I like to say “change is good” but this change sucks.

Boston is not playing a double header

[johnnyvegas13]

I like a few dogs tonight.

Royals?

[stevenash]

Boston is not playing a double header

I stand corrected.
Thanks for that.
I was under the impression that yesterday's postponement was going to be made up today but there's that silly curfew in Minny.
Then I wonder why the props were not up?

Hmm.
Not for nothing I will make mistakes here on occasion, I will never jump ugly on somebody pointing them out.

Thanks Knuck!

[stevenash]

Royals?

Yeah, I like the Duff man tonight.
But I'm biased lol.

He's a sneaky lefty, he's got to negotiate that Trout guy though.

[KnuckleHeadz]

I stand corrected.
Thanks for that.
I was under the impression that yesterday's postponement was going to be made up today but there's that silly curfew in Minny.
Then I wonder why the props were not up?

Hmm.
Not for nothing I will make mistakes here on occasion, I will never jump ugly on somebody pointing them out.

Thanks Knuck!

You still had me questioning myself...
Simple mistake and not trying to point out anything..

[johnnyvegas13]

Yeah, I like the Duff man tonight.
But I'm biased lol.

He's a sneaky lefty, he's got to negotiate that Trout guy though.

I knew it ...

not a good start to philly u like the chase later ??

[stevenash]

You still had me questioning myself...
Simple mistake and not trying to point out anything..

Noted, and understood.
Yeah, I saw the game total 8, then 9.5, I was questioning myself and assumed it was a twin bill myself.
Yeah the two double headers are Balty and NYN not Bos.
Chip in anytime if you see something that doesn't look right, I don't get paid from SBR so I can't afford an editor lol

[stevenash]

I knew it ...

not a good start to philly u like the chase later ??

Johnny, I love you and all but 2-0 in the second inning never has me concerned unless it's Maddux, Pedro, or Sandy Koufax who's got the 2-0 lead.
There's going to be a boat load of runs still to come.

You're paranoid by nature, cut that out, not very healthy.
I know paranoid people, they are train wrecks.
Paranoia will destrya.

I'm not betting Duff because I like Flaherty and a couple of others better.

[stevenash]

Johnny, I love you and all but 2-0 in the second inning never has me concerned unless it's Maddux, Pedro, or Sandy Koufax who's got the 2-0 lead.
There's going to be a boat load of runs still to come.

You're paranoid by nature, cut that out, not very healthy.
I know paranoid people, they are train wrecks.
Paranoia will destrya.

I'm not betting Duff because I like Flaherty and a couple of others better.

See?
Now it's 2-1

Oh, I don't 'chase'
Not my style.

[stevenash]

Full card again today.
15 games. 8 day games and 7 night games.

I always consider a 6:30 EST start time a day game.
My definition of a night game is a game that starts at 7:00 EST or later.
That's just me, I'm funny like that.

Lost my Phillie's selection yesterday afternoon.
Hit my Flaherty and the Cards bet in the evening (after talking myself out of using Duffy and KC) or else I would have been 2-1 yesterday instead of 1-1.

Can't count the Duffy and KC win because we believe in integrity in this thread.
YTD 9-4 (+5.76*)

I can't do 15 games in one sitting. It's too much. Too many numbers to deal with, after awhile your eyeballs start to bleed. lol
I can do the 8 day games and come back to the 7 night games later.

*disclaimer*
Remember boys and girls, this is for information purposes only as gambling is not legal in some areas.
Yankees at Toronto
Kluber and Stripling.

Kluber got ha-ha-hammered his last start, and he's hittable.
You can say the same thing about the Dodger castoff Stripling.
NYY is -125 on the road, no thanks.
Total is 10.5 Yikes, tells you with the linemakers think of those two starters.
Lean home dog or pass.
Pass may be the way to go.

Nats at Cards.
The game is pretty much a pick (home STL -120) because the game is pretty much a pick.
No edge here in this one.
Rooting for Wain-O though, he like Jon Lester just keeps on ticking but I can't select a Joe Ross/Wain-O pick 'em.
PASS

I do like the Brews with their other young gun Burnes.
But the home boys are almost -160 and I can't lay that.
Brews should roll.
(you can consider them in a 2 team parlay though)

By the way speaking of young guns what did I tell you about Giolito and Woodruff.
That Bieber/Giolito matchup last night was as advertised.
0-0 into the tenth, both pitchers threw 16 shutout innings combined.
WOW (Saw that coming though) posted yesterday that was going to be a good one.

Pitcher	IP	H	HR	ER	BB	SO	pLI	WPA
S Bieber	9	3	0	0	1	11	1.22	0.694
Total	9	3	0	0	1	11	1.22	0.694
Pitcher	IP	H	HR	ER	BB	SO	pLI	WPA
L Giolito	7	3	0	0	2	8	0.99	0.379
Total	7	3	0	0	2	8	0.99	0.379

Angels at KC Royals
Royals are a slight home dog.
Keller is a very good ground ball pitcher.
KC again may be worth a play.
KC can rake and Angels Griffin Canning got shelled his last start.
So did Brad Keller come to think about it.

I've seen Brad Keller a few times being a KC fan, he will keep you in the park.
The game is a pick and KC is at home getting + money.
I will usually play home teams in a pick 'em situation getting + money.

Red Sox at Twins.
How about those Sawx, winners of 7 straight your AL East leaders.
What did Kevin Costner (Crash Davis) say in Bull Durham?
"Respect the streak"
I'm not getting a good vibe from the Red Sox today though.
Sox starter Eovaldi throws 100 mph but it's straight as an arrow.
Twins have mashers up and down their lineup.

Sox can hit too, but Twins starter Maeda is nasty.
If Boston wasn't on a heater I'd fade them with Minny.
Can't fade Boston today "respect the streak"
PASS

Passing on SF I'm still waiting for my 2015 hero Johnny Cueto to shit the bed and he hasn't yet.
Pass. SF is +101 at home that is a very interesting number. Do the line makers expect Cueto to shit the bed??
Pass.


KC +110 (Brad Keller) is the play


I'll be back in an hour or two.
I gotta pee and feed my dogs.

[MikeyPicks1]

Nice little breakdown here. Appreciated.

[stevenash]

Nice little breakdown here. Appreciated.

Thank you for that.
Best of luck.