What do you think about Dog ML bets for all NCAA Tournament games?

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  • Otters27
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 07-14-07
    • 30760

    #1
    What do you think about Dog ML bets for all NCAA Tournament games?
    Excluding 16 vs 1 and 15 vs 2
  • Shute
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 03-20-17
    • 11835

    #2
    Genius
    I like it
    Comment
    • Shute
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 03-20-17
      • 11835

      #3
      If you did that all season
      Probably up
      Comment
      • Shute
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 03-20-17
        • 11835

        #4
        Otters with your $10 bet size
        I think it’s a great angle
        High volume
        See what happens
        Great call
        Thought about it myself
        Comment
        • jjgold
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 07-20-05
          • 388179

          #5
          Yep

          Otter excellent strategy
          Comment
          • pologq
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 10-07-12
            • 19899

            #6
            will you keep the bet size consistent?
            Comment
            • INVEGA MAN
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 01-30-08
              • 6805

              #7
              Interesting!!
              Comment
              • pavyracer
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 04-12-07
                • 82841

                #8
                You have to fluctuate the unit size based on the odds to make it to work. Won't work with flat betting. And you need at least a 5 digit bankroll.
                Comment
                • lonegambler23
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 06-22-16
                  • 9760

                  #9
                  otters a juice legend.
                  Comment
                  • cincinnatikid513
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 11-23-17
                    • 45360

                    #10
                    bet a dollar every dog ml see where u end up
                    Comment
                    • Vyasports
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 01-27-19
                      • 4946

                      #11
                      Originally posted by pavyracer
                      You have to fluctuate the unit size based on the odds to make it to work. Won't work with flat betting. And you need at least a 5 digit bankroll.
                      was thinking the same thing... it all depends on the odds
                      Comment
                      • cincinnatikid513
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 11-23-17
                        • 45360

                        #12
                        otters doesn't 14 seem like too many points for california tonight against colorado really like that guard for cali matt bradley, he's going to make it in the nba
                        Comment
                        • Otters27
                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                          • 07-14-07
                          • 30760

                          #13
                          Originally posted by cincinnatikid513
                          otters doesn't 14 seem like too many points for california tonight against colorado really like that guard for cali matt bradley, he's going to make it in the nba
                          Shit missed it. Fell asleep at 8 o clock
                          Comment
                          • Otters27
                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                            • 07-14-07
                            • 30760

                            #14
                            Originally posted by pavyracer
                            You have to fluctuate the unit size based on the odds to make it to work. Won't work with flat betting. And you need at least a 5 digit bankroll.
                            Ok. Thanks
                            Comment
                            • Otters27
                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                              • 07-14-07
                              • 30760

                              #15
                              Originally posted by lonegambler23
                              otters a juice legend.
                              Going opposite juice here. These games are just so close in these conference tournaments. Gave me the idea
                              Comment
                              • mjsuax13
                                Moderator
                                • 03-14-15
                                • 25163

                                #16
                                Go for it. What the hell do we have to lose? Interesting what Pavy said. What’s the right starting unit? Could get expensive and lose a lot. Play to win X unit or just flat.
                                Comment
                                • beefcake
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 11-26-09
                                  • 14029

                                  #17
                                  This is the year to do it with covid.No POD system this year so more value in the dogs.I like it!
                                  Comment
                                  • Chi_archie
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 07-22-08
                                    • 63172

                                    #18
                                    if you bet $100 on every moneyline dog for the past 15 years, here are your results:

                                    266-703
                                    -$12,191
                                    ROI: -12.6%


                                    if you bet only the faves on the moneyline....

                                    you'd be down 155 bucks
                                    Comment
                                    • BIGDAY
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 02-17-10
                                      • 48245

                                      #19
                                      Comment
                                      • pavyracer
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 04-12-07
                                        • 82841

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by Chi_archie
                                        if you bet $100 on every moneyline dog for the past 15 years, here are your results:

                                        266-703
                                        -$12,191
                                        ROI: -12.6%


                                        if you bet only the faves on the moneyline....

                                        you'd be down 155 bucks
                                        Good info. Everyone remembers a few of the upsets but for the most part the favs win.

                                        Betting spreads might be the better strategy.
                                        Comment
                                        • Chi_archie
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 07-22-08
                                          • 63172

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by pavyracer
                                          Good info. Everyone remembers a few of the upsets but for the most part the favs win.

                                          Betting spreads might be the better strategy.
                                          right, I'm trying to compile the last 4-5 years. As just the UMBC 16 seed upset of Virginia

                                          would have returned a bettor 2000 dollars on a 100 dollar bet we also had Michigan State losing in first round as a 2 seed pretty recently I believe they were close to a +2000 underdog as well.
                                          Comment
                                          • Sam Odom
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 10-30-05
                                            • 58063

                                            #22
                                            archie

                                            are you being serious for a change ?
                                            Comment
                                            • Otters27
                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                              • 07-14-07
                                              • 30760

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by Chi_archie
                                              if you bet $100 on every moneyline dog for the past 15 years, here are your results:

                                              266-703
                                              -$12,191
                                              ROI: -12.6%


                                              if you bet only the faves on the moneyline....

                                              you'd be down 155 bucks
                                              I'm thinking just this year
                                              Comment
                                              • Chi_archie
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 07-22-08
                                                • 63172

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by Otters27
                                                I'm thinking just this year
                                                right

                                                I think if I have a notion on betting an angle, I scrap data or search for backtesting to see how it has done long term to give some indications for how a simplistic system might work.

                                                This year, this one year. for sure has the possibilities to have the most variance ever.

                                                so if you got a gut feeling, i'd not discourage you from that. I've been thinking about my approach and angles to this post season for awhile as well.

                                                here's my take.

                                                Talent wins in the end.

                                                when we get BIG march madness upsets, it's often from a small conference team, filled with seniors that have played 100+ games together, they have great coaches that continually helped them to stack learning upon learning upon learning with that cohesion as they hit 30+ games on the year.

                                                the idea that a well oiled team of less talented kids can put the cinderella slipper on vs physical dominance is hindered in a two year period, where not only are the amount of live action real games limited.....but

                                                these kids weren't able to just have open gym runs and practices for much of the past 12 months. There has never been a time in that last 100 years where kids had less of an opportunity to try to create that team synergy in season and off season.

                                                This is the year that I'll take all faves.

                                                find the blue chip teams with experienced and talented guards and just bet the phuck out of them
                                                Comment
                                                • pologq
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 10-07-12
                                                  • 19899

                                                  #25
                                                  i think it is worth maybe like $3 on each and you see what hits. it def would be fun.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Headsterx
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 12-03-16
                                                    • 23156

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by pologq
                                                    i think it is worth maybe like $3 on each and you see what hits. it def would be fun.
                                                    Hell yeah! So is someone is going do it and track it?

                                                    Comment
                                                    • PharaohUB
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 01-23-07
                                                      • 4865

                                                      #27
                                                      best brainless angle i've found in tournie is to bet lower seeds that are favorites on the spread. Anyone know what those stats are? I bet they're pretty good.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Otters27
                                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                        • 07-14-07
                                                        • 30760

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by PharaohUB
                                                        best brainless angle i've found in tournie is to bet lower seeds that are favorites on the spread. Anyone know what those stats are? I bet they're pretty good.
                                                        Like that idea too. I'm almost thinking in those situations I take the small fav
                                                        Comment
                                                        • TommieGunshot
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 03-27-12
                                                          • 1609

                                                          #29
                                                          If I bet them all at the best available numbers, it should be good. Just as if I bet all the favorites at the best available numbers, it should also be good. That requires way too much work for me, so I only bet some of them, instead of all. But along with totals, 1h, props, etc., it ends up being enough action to earn profits.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Art Vandelay
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 09-11-06
                                                            • 6693

                                                            #30
                                                            Half on the plus points, half on the ML - Should be a moneymaker - GL!
                                                            Comment
                                                            • PharaohUB
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 01-23-07
                                                              • 4865

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by PharaohUB
                                                              best brainless angle i've found in tournie is to bet lower seeds that are favorites on the spread. Anyone know what those stats are? I bet they're pretty good.
                                                              Rutgers -1 only one I see first round this year.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • topgame85
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 03-30-08
                                                                • 12325

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by Chi_archie
                                                                right

                                                                I think if I have a notion on betting an angle, I scrap data or search for backtesting to see how it has done long term to give some indications for how a simplistic system might work.

                                                                This year, this one year. for sure has the possibilities to have the most variance ever.

                                                                so if you got a gut feeling, i'd not discourage you from that. I've been thinking about my approach and angles to this post season for awhile as well.

                                                                here's my take.

                                                                Talent wins in the end.

                                                                when we get BIG march madness upsets, it's often from a small conference team, filled with seniors that have played 100+ games together, they have great coaches that continually helped them to stack learning upon learning upon learning with that cohesion as they hit 30+ games on the year.

                                                                the idea that a well oiled team of less talented kids can put the cinderella slipper on vs physical dominance is hindered in a two year period, where not only are the amount of live action real games limited.....but

                                                                these kids weren't able to just have open gym runs and practices for much of the past 12 months. There has never been a time in that last 100 years where kids had less of an opportunity to try to create that team synergy in season and off season.

                                                                This is the year that I'll take all faves.

                                                                find the blue chip teams with experienced and talented guards and just bet the phuck out of them
                                                                I agree with this with a couple exceptions. Small conference teams played no real talent for the past two years. Could be some bigtime blowouts. I am a huge fan of alt line at + on USA books. Fanduel/BetMGM in particular. Will be looking for some blowouts at +250 to +400
                                                                Comment
                                                                • BuckyOne
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 01-02-15
                                                                  • 2728

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by PharaohUB
                                                                  best brainless angle i've found in tournie is to bet lower seeds that are favorites on the spread. Anyone know what those stats are? I bet they're pretty good.

                                                                  Right and clueless sports media call that an upset! There are probably a fair amount of Joe Six Packs that would always bet the higher seed. Whether or not you are getting scientific value with the tactic is a case by case analysis.

                                                                  So, should St Bonny be favored over LSU? Here is one / Should Wisconsin be favored over UNC? Rutgers is favored over Clemson as a ten seed.

                                                                  Did I miss any? I do like your tactic. Maybe, we do not even want to know what they were seeded?
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • ThanosPttPls
                                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                                    • 01-03-21
                                                                    • 194

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Eveery 12 seed for me
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • d2bets
                                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                      • 08-10-05
                                                                      • 39995

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Better have a lot of outs for libe shopping and bet at the right time. Lots of juice on ML's.
                                                                      Comment
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