What do you think about Dog ML bets for all NCAA Tournament games?

Shute · 03-11-21, 09:18 PM

Genius
I like it

Shute · 03-11-21, 09:19 PM

If you did that all season
Probably up

Shute · 03-11-21, 09:21 PM

Otters with your $10 bet size
I think it’s a great angle
High volume
See what happens
Great call
Thought about it myself

jjgold · 03-11-21, 09:44 PM

Yep

Otter excellent strategy

pologq · 03-11-21, 09:46 PM

will you keep the bet size consistent?

INVEGA MAN · 03-11-21, 09:55 PM

Interesting!!

pavyracer · 03-11-21, 10:03 PM

You have to fluctuate the unit size based on the odds to make it to work. Won't work with flat betting. And you need at least a 5 digit bankroll.

lonegambler23 · 03-11-21, 10:20 PM

otters a juice legend.

cincinnatikid513 · 03-11-21, 10:21 PM

bet a dollar every dog ml see where u end up

Vyasports · 03-11-21, 10:28 PM

Originally posted by pavyracer

You have to fluctuate the unit size based on the odds to make it to work. Won't work with flat betting. And you need at least a 5 digit bankroll.

was thinking the same thing... it all depends on the odds

cincinnatikid513 · 03-11-21, 10:29 PM

otters doesn't 14 seem like too many points for california tonight against colorado really like that guard for cali matt bradley, he's going to make it in the nba

Otters27 · 03-12-21, 04:11 AM

Originally posted by cincinnatikid513

otters doesn't 14 seem like too many points for california tonight against colorado really like that guard for cali matt bradley, he's going to make it in the nba

Shit missed it. Fell asleep at 8 o clock

Otters27 · 03-12-21, 04:12 AM

Originally posted by pavyracer

You have to fluctuate the unit size based on the odds to make it to work. Won't work with flat betting. And you need at least a 5 digit bankroll.

Ok. Thanks

Otters27 · 03-12-21, 04:13 AM

Originally posted by lonegambler23

otters a juice legend.

Going opposite juice here. These games are just so close in these conference tournaments. Gave me the idea

mjsuax13 · 03-12-21, 04:15 AM

Go for it. What the hell do we have to lose? Interesting what Pavy said. What’s the right starting unit? Could get expensive and lose a lot. Play to win X unit or just flat.

beefcake · 03-12-21, 06:55 AM

This is the year to do it with covid.No POD system this year so more value in the dogs.I like it!

Chi_archie · 03-12-21, 07:46 AM

if you bet $100 on every moneyline dog for the past 15 years, here are your results:

266-703
-$12,191
ROI: -12.6%

if you bet only the faves on the moneyline....

you'd be down 155 bucks

BIGDAY · 03-12-21, 07:55 AM

pavyracer · 03-12-21, 10:24 AM

Originally posted by Chi_archie

if you bet $100 on every moneyline dog for the past 15 years, here are your results:

266-703
-$12,191
ROI: -12.6%

if you bet only the faves on the moneyline....

you'd be down 155 bucks

Good info. Everyone remembers a few of the upsets but for the most part the favs win.

Betting spreads might be the better strategy.

Chi_archie · 03-12-21, 11:41 AM

Originally posted by pavyracer

Good info. Everyone remembers a few of the upsets but for the most part the favs win.

Betting spreads might be the better strategy.

right, I'm trying to compile the last 4-5 years. As just the UMBC 16 seed upset of Virginia

would have returned a bettor 2000 dollars on a 100 dollar bet we also had Michigan State losing in first round as a 2 seed pretty recently I believe they were close to a +2000 underdog as well.

Sam Odom · 03-12-21, 11:46 AM

archie

are you being serious for a change ?

Otters27 · 03-12-21, 12:37 PM

Originally posted by Chi_archie

if you bet $100 on every moneyline dog for the past 15 years, here are your results:

266-703
-$12,191
ROI: -12.6%

if you bet only the faves on the moneyline....

you'd be down 155 bucks

I'm thinking just this year

Chi_archie · 03-12-21, 03:40 PM

Originally posted by Otters27

I'm thinking just this year

right

I think if I have a notion on betting an angle, I scrap data or search for backtesting to see how it has done long term to give some indications for how a simplistic system might work.

This year, this one year. for sure has the possibilities to have the most variance ever.

so if you got a gut feeling, i'd not discourage you from that. I've been thinking about my approach and angles to this post season for awhile as well.

here's my take.

Talent wins in the end.

when we get BIG march madness upsets, it's often from a small conference team, filled with seniors that have played 100+ games together, they have great coaches that continually helped them to stack learning upon learning upon learning with that cohesion as they hit 30+ games on the year.

the idea that a well oiled team of less talented kids can put the cinderella slipper on vs physical dominance is hindered in a two year period, where not only are the amount of live action real games limited.....but

these kids weren't able to just have open gym runs and practices for much of the past 12 months. There has never been a time in that last 100 years where kids had less of an opportunity to try to create that team synergy in season and off season.

This is the year that I'll take all faves.

find the blue chip teams with experienced and talented guards and just bet the phuck out of them

pologq · 03-12-21, 04:02 PM

i think it is worth maybe like $3 on each and you see what hits. it def would be fun.

Headsterx · 03-12-21, 04:22 PM

Originally posted by pologq

i think it is worth maybe like $3 on each and you see what hits. it def would be fun.

Hell yeah! So is someone is going do it and track it?

PharaohUB · 03-12-21, 06:30 PM

best brainless angle i've found in tournie is to bet lower seeds that are favorites on the spread. Anyone know what those stats are? I bet they're pretty good.

Otters27 · 03-12-21, 06:36 PM

Originally posted by PharaohUB

best brainless angle i've found in tournie is to bet lower seeds that are favorites on the spread. Anyone know what those stats are? I bet they're pretty good.

Like that idea too. I'm almost thinking in those situations I take the small fav

TommieGunshot · 03-13-21, 07:56 PM

If I bet them all at the best available numbers, it should be good. Just as if I bet all the favorites at the best available numbers, it should also be good. That requires way too much work for me, so I only bet some of them, instead of all. But along with totals, 1h, props, etc., it ends up being enough action to earn profits.

Art Vandelay · 03-14-21, 03:49 AM

Half on the plus points, half on the ML - Should be a moneymaker - GL!

PharaohUB · 03-15-21, 10:06 PM

Originally posted by PharaohUB

best brainless angle i've found in tournie is to bet lower seeds that are favorites on the spread. Anyone know what those stats are? I bet they're pretty good.

Rutgers -1 only one I see first round this year.

topgame85 · 03-15-21, 10:14 PM

Originally posted by Chi_archie

right

I think if I have a notion on betting an angle, I scrap data or search for backtesting to see how it has done long term to give some indications for how a simplistic system might work.

This year, this one year. for sure has the possibilities to have the most variance ever.

so if you got a gut feeling, i'd not discourage you from that. I've been thinking about my approach and angles to this post season for awhile as well.

here's my take.

Talent wins in the end.

when we get BIG march madness upsets, it's often from a small conference team, filled with seniors that have played 100+ games together, they have great coaches that continually helped them to stack learning upon learning upon learning with that cohesion as they hit 30+ games on the year.

the idea that a well oiled team of less talented kids can put the cinderella slipper on vs physical dominance is hindered in a two year period, where not only are the amount of live action real games limited.....but

these kids weren't able to just have open gym runs and practices for much of the past 12 months. There has never been a time in that last 100 years where kids had less of an opportunity to try to create that team synergy in season and off season.

This is the year that I'll take all faves.

find the blue chip teams with experienced and talented guards and just bet the phuck out of them

I agree with this with a couple exceptions. Small conference teams played no real talent for the past two years. Could be some bigtime blowouts. I am a huge fan of alt line at + on USA books. Fanduel/BetMGM in particular. Will be looking for some blowouts at +250 to +400

BuckyOne · 03-15-21, 11:39 PM

Originally posted by PharaohUB

best brainless angle i've found in tournie is to bet lower seeds that are favorites on the spread. Anyone know what those stats are? I bet they're pretty good.

Right and clueless sports media call that an upset! There are probably a fair amount of Joe Six Packs that would always bet the higher seed. Whether or not you are getting scientific value with the tactic is a case by case analysis.

So, should St Bonny be favored over LSU? Here is one / Should Wisconsin be favored over UNC? Rutgers is favored over Clemson as a ten seed.

Did I miss any? I do like your tactic. Maybe, we do not even want to know what they were seeded?

ThanosPttPls · 03-15-21, 11:42 PM

Eveery 12 seed for me

d2bets · 03-15-21, 11:48 PM

Better have a lot of outs for libe shopping and bet at the right time. Lots of juice on ML's.