How important to your bankroll will the Superbowl be?

**Snowball** · 02-02-21, 06:35 PM

ugh. I tried. I really tried.

You can only add a poll to a thread within 1 minutes of posting the thread.

this is not enough time to type the boxes.

**The General** · 02-02-21, 06:35 PM

Lol the biggest coin flip of the year.

**Snowball** · 02-02-21, 06:39 PM

1. Of Utmost Importance
2. Pretty Substantial to Me
3. Medium Coke Please
4. Something for Entertainment
5. Nothing, Basically

**pimike** · 02-02-21, 06:41 PM

Depends the match up.

Not all are equal importance.

**Snowball** · 02-02-21, 06:45 PM

Originally posted by pimike

Depends the match up.

Not all are equal importance.

as a whole the event this weekend
all bets props and sides etc

**Snowball** · 02-02-21, 06:51 PM

anyway I'm a 2. Pretty Substantial to Me.

**aveeno** · 02-02-21, 06:55 PM

4 outta 5 for me.
Best of luck

**pimike** · 02-02-21, 07:00 PM

Originally posted by Snowball

as a whole the event this weekend
all bets props and sides etc

Medium Coke please. Lol

However it is very intriguing, with the best historical QB vs the best new upcoming QB

So a MUST watch.

Will play a few props.

But not going to over bet the game. Want to have fun and enjoy it. Will be mixing my coke. Lol

**Hman** · 02-02-21, 07:03 PM

Betting on KC

Tampa Bay Fan

I'll win either way

**TheMetsSuck** · 02-02-21, 07:11 PM

Been putting 50$ on Tampa +3.5 after each good day. So far close to 600 total on it. Really liking those 3 points for tom at home

**Allure** · 02-02-21, 07:13 PM

Why would you bet more than on any other game? Do you all of sudden have special inside information or angles that would justify going nuts?

**carolinakid** · 02-02-21, 07:19 PM

it just another sunday game, i have been doing for 30 yrs, unless you only bet this one game a year it nothing more than a damn game.it nothing more than any game or total or 1st half all year, penetrate the over hype media on this one damn game

**MinnesotaFats** · 02-02-21, 07:21 PM

Can't bet this game

EVERY indicator is KC by 7+. They're better and faster at every position on offense and their D gets to the QB.

But....it's the refs & Brady.

**carolinakid** · 02-02-21, 07:22 PM

i will not even watch it here other than live stats on computer screens

**aveeno** · 02-02-21, 07:25 PM

alternate lines.... chiefs -7- and chiefs - 10-
these two teams do not match up.
Going to be a shellacking the likes of san diego and san fransicso match up in 95

**The General** · 02-02-21, 07:29 PM

Can't bet this game best advice ever posted. Fukin degenerates. Losers everywhere.

**INVEGA MAN** · 02-02-21, 09:42 PM

ive been studying these props for 4 days and still got 4 1/2 days of studying to do. I take

**jjgold** · 02-02-21, 11:16 PM

I used to go big on the big events

This game just happens to be a very solid play and a big bet

**cincinnatikid513** · 02-02-21, 11:25 PM

i'll bet my grandpa 20 dollars to have something to root for on the game

**SEAHAWKHARRY** · 02-02-21, 11:26 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

I used to go big on the big events

This game just happens to be a very solid play and a big bet

Who you on JJ?

**Snowball** · 02-03-21, 07:44 AM

What gets me is so many of you guys say you're a degen if you bet bigger on the Superbowl
then you blow your loads on run-of-the-mill bullcrap games that happen all year long.

How many punters on this site are 1 percenters? Very, very few. 1 percenters that only bet
1 percent of their BR on any game - and think they accomplished something by going 55/60%
on picks overall. That is no way to make money betting sports. All that work for what? If I was
betting sports to make 5-15% a year, I would rather buy corporate bonds.

This game is NOT a bad game to bet on. It's a great game to bet on. Better than most
Superbowls. My opinion on the spread is it has very little possibility of landing within a field goal.
Either Tampa will win or KC will win by 6+. I have a very strong opinion on the outcome.

**BuckyOne** · 02-03-21, 08:17 AM

Medium coke please

I will spend all day Sunday on it. End up with a side and a total / 5 - 7 prop bets for normal sizes. Goal is to win 1 or 2 units like any other Sunday.

In our family we put $100 of my money into a shoe box (bank-o-dad) for my family of 4. Create a pool and draw numbers to pay out $20 each quarter and $20 to whomever picks the final score the closest.

I know it is just one game but it is kind of symbolic that the season is over.

**hubie69** · 02-03-21, 08:46 AM

None. Have zero money on the Super Bowl.

I'll watch the game, but better opportunities elsewhere.

**TommieGunshot** · 02-03-21, 09:26 AM

Originally posted by Snowball

How many punters on this site are 1 percenters? Very, very few. 1 percenters that only bet
1 percent of their BR on any game - and think they accomplished something by going 55/60%
on picks overall. That is no way to make money betting sports. All that work for what? If I was
betting sports to make 5-15% a year, I would rather buy corporate bonds.

Make just three bets per day, winning 55% while laying -110, betting full Kelly, means your money will more than quadruple in one year. Start with just $20,000 (about one year of minimum wage income), have $90,000 after one year, $405,000 after two years, $1.8 million after three years, etc.

You are right that no one here is doing that. But it has nothing to do with the small profits that come from it

(If my math is off, someone correct me, I just used the expected growth from here: https://www.sportsbookreview.com/bet...ly-calculator/)

**pologq** · 02-03-21, 09:35 AM

i am betting about 4% of my bankroll on the game and my prop bets are 1% to 2% of my bank roll. i have been doing good with hockey so this has helped.

i like the game and i like the alternate spread i got.

**Seaweed** · 02-03-21, 09:37 AM

80% of roll

**Snowball** · 02-03-21, 02:37 PM

Originally posted by TommieGunshot

Make just three bets per day, winning 55% while laying -110, betting full Kelly, means your money will more than quadruple in one year. Start with just $20,000 (about one year of minimum wage income), have $90,000 after one year, $405,000 after two years, $1.8 million after three years, etc.

You are right that no one here is doing that. But it has nothing to do with the small profits that come from it

(If my math is off, someone correct me, I just used the expected growth from here: https://www.sportsbookreview.com/bet...ly-calculator/)

betting the standard 1-2% which is what I was mentioning is in no way related to the Kelly Criterion.

If you really do use the Kelly Criterion, I'd like to see you start a thread applying it and see what happens in sports betting. I do not believe the Kelly Criterion is applicable to sports.

**dmm** · 02-03-21, 02:57 PM

5. Nothing basically

I only bet NFL because Bet365 gives me $100 a week in free bets. If they offer it for the Super Bowl I'll take the offer, but won't be betting otherwise.

**Snowball** · 02-03-21, 04:05 PM

Buccaneers' Jordan Whitehead: Returns to practice

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/buccaneers-jordan-whitehead-returns-to-practice/

Buccaneers' Jordan Whitehead: Returns to practice

Report: Buccaneers WR Antonio Brown Expected to Practice Wednesday

https://www.si.com/nfl/buccaneers/news/tampa-bay-buccaneers-antonio-brown-limited-practice-super-bowl

Antonio Brown takes a step forward in his return from a knee injury.

Super Bowl 2021: Buccaneers' Antoine Winfield Jr. says he will play despite ankle injury

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/super-bowl-2021-buccaneers-antoine-winfield-jr-says-he-will-play-despite-ankle-injury/

Winfield Jr. told reporters this week he will suit up for Super Bowl LV

Wednesday's injury and roster news: Antonio Brown, Antoine Winfield Jr. among Bucs limited in practice

https://www.nfl.com/news/wednesday-injury-and-roster-news-super-bowl-lv-antonio-brown

Bucs receiver Antonio Brown (knee), linebacker Lavonte David (hamstring), and safeties Jordan Whitehead (shoulder) and Antoine Winfield Jr. (ankle) were all limited in Wednesday's session.

**TommieGunshot** · 02-03-21, 04:33 PM

Originally posted by Snowball

betting the standard 1-2% which is what I was mentioning is in no way related to the Kelly Criterion.

If you really do use the Kelly Criterion, I'd like to see you start a thread applying it and see what happens in sports betting. I do not believe the Kelly Criterion is applicable to sports.

There are two main reason why Kelly Criterion can't be applied to sports betting.

One is that because if someone picks 55 to 60% winners, they very quickly reach max bets and can no longer bet more and more as their bankroll grows.

The other is that betting against -110 lines, most everyone picks less than 52.4% winners, in which case Kelly Criterion says to bet 0.

Best thing to do is to pick 55% winners, make max bets and $500,000 to $1 million every year. Pick 60% and earn a few million every year.

**BuckyOne** · 02-03-21, 07:31 PM

Originally posted by TommieGunshot

Make just three bets per day, winning 55% while laying -110, betting full Kelly, means your money will more than quadruple in one year. Start with just $20,000 (about one year of minimum wage income), have $90,000 after one year, $405,000 after two years, $1.8 million after three years, etc.

You are right that no one here is doing that. But it has nothing to do with the small profits that come from it

(If my math is off, someone correct me, I just used the expected growth from here: https://www.sportsbookreview.com/bet...ly-calculator/)

No one on the planet has ever been that good. Versus 110 and making 1095 bets in 3 years nobody / anywhere will ever be able to do this!

**seaborneq** · 02-03-21, 08:18 PM

I will bet 2-3 units versus 1 unit on the super bowl and parlay the side and o/u versus straight wager. But i will withdraw afterwards win or lose. Im done until March madness

**TommieGunshot** · 02-03-21, 10:20 PM

Originally posted by BuckyOne

No one on the planet has ever been that good. Versus 110 and making 1095 bets in 3 years nobody / anywhere will ever be able to do this!

Sounds like you are saying snowball was full of shit when he was talking about guys "going 55/60% on picks overall". I agree.

**BuckyOne** · 02-04-21, 12:17 AM

Originally posted by TommieGunshot

Sounds like you are saying snowball was full of shit when he was talking about guys "going 55/60% on picks overall". I agree.

it is a good topic and I like Kelly Criterion theory. But, I think it is hard to get from theory to real life.

I do agree that we can all get hot for subsets of 50 to 75 picks. But, three years is a long time to stay hot and to be good at 3 different sports is a factor.

A few years ago I went back and regraded my play list with Kelly bet sizing just to try and learn something. What do we need to get a % (batting average}. I used 20 for a sample size but not over the Mendoza line. Still not over the Mendoza line at a 100.

Found a subset of 20 over 52 1/2% and OK let's roll it there. So, now that we are hot we have to stay hot. But, my play list did not and the grading spent a long time betting zero. There were subsets over 52.5% but, to pull the overall % of the entire sample up to that level was hard.

My paper trading showed a loss with the tactic. It got down and lost playing higher amounts and then some good win rolls did not get to count because the batting average was not good enough to bet with. So, just like the baseball player was has 300 at bats who goes 0 for 3 does not take a big digger with his average if you could get into Kelly for 300 games an 0 fer would not kill you.

When somebody pays for picks if you factor in the cost of the picks you would not even be able to turn a profit with a 55% capper. If you and I had a rock solid way to consistently pick 55% over a large sample we would get there with a bunch of different sizing strategies.

But, more or less my point is no bet sizing tactic can overcome the ups and downs of betting 11 to win 10 for anybody I have ever known or heard of.