How important to your bankroll will the Superbowl be?

[TommieGunshot]

But, more or less my point is no bet sizing tactic can overcome the ups and downs of betting 11 to win 10 for anybody I have ever known or heard of.

If your point is valid, the most profitable bet size is 0.

[hehfest]

1.5 Snowy. I will bet my whole bankroll on this game spread out all over the place. I have already spent about 8 hours capping it maybe more, and will probably really start to grind it out more tomorrow through Saturday capping for several hours each day. I am probably at 1.5 or even 1 every single year for this game.

I have 2-3 props I absolutely love at this moment so far and I just started, but I will probably only bet a handful of those maximum.

[hehfest]

Lol the biggest coin flip of the year.

Wow General, Once again sound just like that other Indiana guy in this forum.

LOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL OLOL

[BuckyOne]

If your point is valid, the most profitable bet size is 0.

Just so hard to define precisely what scientific advantage or disadvantage we have on any given bet. Kelly sizing using past performance does not mean anything on the next event.
We increase our bet size when we are at a disadvantage or do not bet at all when we have an advantage. Taking our chances at level bet sizing is my preference over some type of increase or decrease in bet size tactic.

In theory, if we could sustain 55% over 3 years how to or when to bet bigger is a hard call but increasing the bet size has to be done. I prefer a move to a bigger bet size using a specific chunk of money.

So, let's say you and I could go 55% on 1095 bets this year / win 600 and lose 495. Betting 100 that would get us 5,550. That would be a sin, too. Being that hot for that long and making that little. But, I just hate getting a couple of dimes ahead and giving it all back.

Next time we 60 and 40 and win 1600 we could get back together and have a WITF should I do now discussion.

[Snowball]

probably line up more parlays paired with Tampa.
Already have about 10 of them with won sides.

[pilebuck13]

Betting on KC

Tampa Bay Fan

I'll win either way

You have thought they would lose every playoff game this season

[TommieGunshot]

Just so hard to define precisely what scientific advantage or disadvantage we have on any given bet.

Reasonable estimates *should* be fine with fractional Kelly.

So, let's say you and I could go 55% on 1095 bets this year / win 600 and lose 495. Betting 100 that would get us 5,550. That would be a sin, too. Being that hot for that long and making that little. But, I just hate getting a couple of dimes ahead and giving it all back.

With a 55% chance of winning a game, betting half-Kelly would mean a $3,700 bankroll. What the penetrate? That's like a few months of a minimum wage job. Have a job that pays more than McDonald's for a few years and it should be 10-times that. Which means betting $1,000 per game. Repeat until rich. If someone isn't doing that, it's because they aren't betting games that have a 55% chance of winning. Which just brings us back to the idea that the entire premise of guys "going 55/60% on picks overall" was complete bullshit.