How many of you have won a lot by betting solely on your "intuition" compared to betting via some sort of analysis or system?
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The only time I've won betting on intuition (lost more than I've won) is when my blood alcohol content is somewhere between 0.12 and 0.16. Below that, and I'm too sober and still know better than betting on intuition. Above 0.16 and intuition doesn't exist or is no longer recognized as such by my brain.Comment -
Capping the games is the part I enjoy so very rare I fire at stuff for the action, unless as you mentioned im drunk/high and chasing late games!! Lol. There some “intuition” involved in all of it tho, even the way we interpret numbers is more art than science imo, unless it guys that strictly bet with a model.Originally posted by TankoComment -
Analysis does not work because if it did nobody would work
Gambling majority of the time the unexpected so try and out guess themComment -
This doesn't make sense. Not at all.Originally posted by jjgoldComment -
Quantifying your intuiton or understanding the factors that you're brain is using to subconsciusly arrive at the intuitive conclusion and then understanding how those factors relate to each other allows for the ulyimate scenario to play out.
It truly becomes not about the information, but about how it's used.
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As I've said from just about the very first day I came to SBR.
Track your bets and why you made them.
Combined wtih patience and discipline, you have the essence of winning both short and long term or at the very least a significant decreas in losses for both.Comment -
Absolutely, even concrete numbers can be very subjective!!Originally posted by KVBQuantifying your intuiton or understanding the factors that you're brain is using to subconsciusly arrive at the intuitive conclusion and then understanding how those factors relate to each other allows for the ulyimate scenario to play out.
It truly becomes not about the information, but about how it's used.
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I made a lot of typos but yes indeed. There are many ways to handicap. That self understanding how one handicaps keeps them from wildly betting games.Originally posted by 2daBank
Sun Tzu, in "The Art of War" said...
It applies here.If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.Comment -
Every time I've played a hunch or speculated. I got buried. Everytime!Comment -
One of the probelms with intuition alone is the things are often not what they seem and the brain is easily fooled by what it sees. Emotions, hopes, and the stress of trying to pick a winner can all be corrupted, or better yet be used to corrupt the intuitive strategy.
Emotions tend to short circuit rational thinking and sportsbooks, due to the nature of sports, exploit this often.
From Sun Tzu to Plato, all of these things I've written about at at SBR and Plato's Allegory of the Cave can provide valuable lessons...
Making your way out of the cave to see the sun will only benefit the sports bettor and trying to come back to the cave and convince the others there is even a sun, much less that what they see isn't real, will cause them to brand you lunatic.Plato has Socrates describe a group of people who have lived chained to the wall of a cave all of their lives, facing a blank wall. The people watch shadows projected on the wall from objects passing in front of a fire behind them, and give names to these shadows. The shadows are the prisoners' reality, or thelowest level of Plato's divided line. Three higher levels exist, that a rare philosopher will attempt to climb up to. The second level up is known today as the natural sciences. The third level up is mathematics, geometry, and deductive logic.
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well saidOriginally posted by KVBOne of the probelms with intuition alone is the things are often not what they seem and the brain is easily fooled by what it sees. Emotions, hopes, and the stress of trying to pick a winner can all be corrupted, or better yet be used to corrupt the intuitive strategy.
Emotions tend to short circuit rational thinking and sportsbooks, due to the nature of sports, exploit this often.
From Sun Tzu to Plato, all of these things I've written about at at SBR and Plato's Allegory of the Cave can provide valuable lessons...
Making your way out of the cave to see the sun will only benefit the sports bettor and trying to come back to the cave and convince the others there is even a sun, much less that what they see isn't real, will cause them to brand you lunatic.
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A bettor can turn the tables on the market place and take advantage too.
A bettor that has an anchor with some kind of quantitative analysis and can at the same time realize when the market is not only on an emotional high or low, or emotional run, but can even peg the oddsmakers and bookmakers as trying to exploit it has put himself in a great position to win.
Gambling is all about putting yourself in a position to win. Sometimes we do that even at a cut in the original payout, like selling back winning bets top avoid the losses or guarantee a profit. Sometimes that only works short term and can eat at long term profits of taking a side and winning a certain percent of them.
I often approach the golf lines with this in mind, buying futures that I hope get close so I can sell back for profit LIVE later. I don't always try to pick the winner.
Also, experience is invaluable and irreplaceable. It builds any intuition. So if one aggregates that experience as it's being gained then the war chest, after many seasons or years, has some serious ammo for multiple strategies.
That's where tracking your bets and why you made them show their real value.
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Lol. Good stuffOriginally posted by KVBOne of the probelms with intuition alone is the things are often not what they seem and the brain is easily fooled by what it sees. Emotions, hopes, and the stress of trying to pick a winner can all be corrupted, or better yet be used to corrupt the intuitive strategy.
Emotions tend to short circuit rational thinking and sportsbooks, due to the nature of sports, exploit this often.
From Sun Tzu to Plato, all of these things I've written about at at SBR and Plato's Allegory of the Cave can provide valuable lessons...
Making your way out of the cave to see the sun will only benefit the sports bettor and trying to come back to the cave and convince the others there is even a sun, much less that what they see isn't real, will cause them to brand you lunatic.
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I only bet intuition.
Not smart enough to do analysisComment -
My intuition is to wait for Seaweed's analysis...
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Just a little bit of an anchor to keep you grounded and you just might get that much more confidence in how you attack the game.Originally posted by Otters27Comment -
Originally posted by HeadsterxMy intuition is to wait for Seaweed's analysis...
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Nobody has ever gone broke with this strategy.Originally posted by HeadsterxMy intuition is to wait for Seaweed's analysis...
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Sometimes it’s important not to overthink things, the best bets usually combine both intuition and analysis. I remember when the Browns went 0-16 and every week some so called professional bettor was saying the value was in the browns, sometimes you have to keep things simple and ride trends.Originally posted by VyasportsComment -
Primarily intuition to identify games that look like they fit a certain profile that I like to bet and then further analysis to identify if I have any edge or not.Comment -
Hunches hereComment -
how to combine those two?Originally posted by thomorinoComment -
Intuition is part of your analysis. If your intuition is wrong, you had bad analysis.Comment -
Analysis is required. If we didn't analyze our bets, how would we know if we were up or down at the end of the month or the year?
Intuition is also required. If we didn't have that, we would have to relearn everything, everyday.
How about just use a strategy to make good bets. That strategy should be based on all available information, derived from all sources and methods.Comment
