2020 Election. The State by State Odds and MATH

[vitterd]

2016 wasn't supposed to be 2016 either and he still won. The fact that he beat Clinton when people were CERTAIN he wouldn't made it "different" also. Like King Mayan said, he can win.

You’ll see.

Biden doesn’t have any of the negative clinton did and now trump has a record and his record is putrid. Completely different than 2016. It couldn’t be more different.

[jt315]

“I call them flippers”. Wait until his fat ass is going to prison. Even Ivanka will flip on the molesting sick bastard.

Do you feel as strong as did when you predicted Flynn would flip on Jared you clueless waste ?

[vitterd]

Do you feel as strong as did when you predicted Flynn would flip on Jared you clueless waste ?

“ Tulsa will be dems oh shit moment” jt315

Oh shit I couldn’t stop laughing. The few people who showed up all got Covid!!

[DwightShrute]

About +300 the morning of.

Trump was +1100 after then first polls closed.

[DwightShrute]

[vitterd]

Silent majority!!! Bwaaaaahhhh. Dwight you can’t even vote in America

[jt315]

Biden Leads But Many Anticipate Secret Trump Vote

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_pa_071520/

What do we have here in question #15 ?



Regardless of who you support now, who do you think will win Pennsylvania this year – Donald Trump or Joe Biden? [NAMES WERE ROTATED]

REGISTERED VOTERS	July 2020
Trump	46%
Biden	45%
(VOL) Other	0%
(VOL) Don’t know	9%
(n)	(401)

They know .

[15805]

Below are some price changes for the closest 10 states. On the left is the prices from June 26th. The next number is the number of delegates. And the prices with a * is July 19th(today). Keep in mind that if all the big favorites of -350 or more hold up Trump will need 105 delegates or more for him to win.

States Trump is favored:
Georgia -190 16 *-145
Iowa -210 6 *-195
North Carolina -130 15 *+105
Ohio -170 18 *-175

States Dems are favored:
Arizona -160 11 *-185
Florida -140 29 *-160
Michigan -295 16 *-300
New Hampshire -270 4 *-320
Pennsylvania -265 20 *-335
Wisconsin -215 10 *-265

Anyone see a trend here? I can't wait to see what Trump has up his sleeve. We don't know for sure what he's going to try to pull out of his ass but we can be sure that he will accuse someone of something that he himself is guilty of. This should be entertaining.

Seems like just another democrat celebration far to soon. Remember how sure you felt when Chuck Todd
echoed the view of the anti-Trump factions in 2016 just two weeks before the 2016 election:

Meet the Press - October 16, 2016

Republicans feared that Trump's troubles would metastasize and take out down ballot Republicans threatening the party's hold on the Senate and perhaps even the House. But we have a new indication of just how dire things have become for Trump. In our new NBC News Wall Street Journal poll out right now Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump in a four-way race by ten points among registered voters, 47/37. If you limit it to just likely voters, check this out. Clinton's lead actually grows to 48/37.






MEET THE PRESS
Words of Chuck Todd-
OCT 23 2016, 12:24 PM ET



does she go for a big win, a landslide? Does she try to quell the talk of a rigged election by pushing hard into red states like Utah, Georgia, and Arizona, sensing an opportunity for the biggest electoral victory since the last time a Clinton was on the ballot?

[vitterd]

Watching TGF trumptards screech “but 2016” is comedy gold. Trump headed for an epic beatdown.

The silent majority showed up in Tulsa and his cancelled rally in New Hampshire. Lmao

[JohnGalt2341]

Watching TGF trumptards screech “but 2016” is comedy gold. Trump headed for an epic beatdown.

The silent majority showed up in Tulsa and his cancelled rally in New Hampshire. Lmao

Trump reminds me of Buster Douglas. Very few predicted his upset over Mike Tyson, including myself. However... when he fought Evander Holyfield in his next fight less than a year later...many thought he would win for sure... because he beat Mike Tyson. I was not one of these people. I suspected that Holyfield would destroy him and he did.

Back to back upsets are fairly rare in ANYTHING. This is no different. It doesn't really matter what happened last time... this is a brand new game.

[vitterd]

Trump reminds me of Buster Douglas. Very few predicted his upset over Mike Tyson, including myself. However... when he fought Evander Holyfield in his next fight less than a year later...many thought he would win for sure... because he beat Mike Tyson. I was not one of these people. I suspected that Holyfield would destroy him and he did.

Back to back upsets are fairly rare in ANYTHING. This is no different. It doesn't really matter what happened last time... this is a brand new game.

Yup. People who stayed home in 16 will not make that mistake again. Trump has not increased his voters since 2016, he has decreased them. This is not something hard to figure out. It’s in plain site.

He can’t land a punch on Biden. You’re not gonna get independents and moderates to hate joe like they did Hillary. I don’t care how many times he changes nicknames for Biden.

[ace7550]

It gets so old listening to dems and repubs talk shit to each other about which douche bag their party is carting out this year. Same shit over and over.
Now for another post about how Trump is great or terrible. Sigh.

[Art Vandelay]

Trump was +1100 after then first polls closed.

And at that same point Trump staffers literally said, "It will take a miracle to win this". But they got it!

[Ian]

A thought that just occurred to me is that Trump might try to use the federal death penalty to energize voters. The American population still favors the death penalty by a substantial margin, and executions are given a lot of media time. If Trump is able to get the Boston Marathon bomber and Fort Hood shooter executed in early November he may be able to sway some voters in key states at the last moment.

I have no idea what the state of appeals is for any federal or military death row prisoner, but if Trump has any sway on the cases we could see an "October Surprise" much like when Comey re-opened the Clinton email investigation just before the election in 2016.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Keep this updating.

Nate Silver talks about poll bias. It may well be that Dems are more likely to poll. There may be Rep votes not in the poll.

[dustyy]

A thought that just occurred to me is that Trump might try to use the federal death penalty to energize voters. The American population still favors the death penalty by a substantial margin, and executions are given a lot of media time. If Trump is able to get the Boston Marathon bomber and Fort Hood shooter executed in early November he may be able to sway some voters in key states at the last moment.

I have no idea what the state of appeals is for any federal or military death row prisoner, but if Trump has any sway on the cases we could see an "October Surprise" much like when Comey re-opened the Clinton email investigation just before the election in 2016.

Feds executed 3 child killers in the last month and another one is expected next month. Prior to these executions, there have only been 3 in 32 years and one was Timothy McVeigh. Yeah, I would say it would be a good strategy as long as child killers, child rapists go first. McVeigh killed children in OKC and the rest of the scum's resume's are below.

The crimes were grisly. Daniel Lewis Lee murdered a family of three, including an 8-year-old girl. He's been on death row since 1999; his execution is scheduled for July 13. Wesley Ira Purkey, who raped and murdered a 16-year-old girl, will be put to death on July 15. Dustin Lee Honken, who shot and killed five people, will be executed July 17. Keith Dwayne Nelson, who kidnapped, raped and strangled a 10-year-old girl to death with a wire, will be executed Aug. 28.

[mjsuax13]

Hillary is a lock in 2016 they said and the polls and CNN told us this!!!.. Take your polls and shove them up your asss fake news media!!!

Trump voters don't poll.. Remember that!! I'm one of them and I never polled in my life..

Most people don’t poll in general. It’s also like any survey, consumer survey, customer receipt survey, etc... 1-2% of the voting population/customer base. Polls are mostly useless but good for fodder like this.

[mjsuax13]

Correct. The non-politician is now a politician, and his swamp stinks just as bad. And I'm a Republican.

This is it. Trump- fan or not is now in charge, has a record and the American people will determine if they want another 4 years of this. He’s a politician now. The concept of “running the country like a business” proved to not work as well as he had hoped for. The swamp is real and he jumped right into it.

[mjsuax13]

That's it huh? So... according to you all the Trump supporters on SBR are afraid that 5Dimes won't exist in 4 months? Makes perfect sense... I'll take my chances.
Let's keep in mind that I think Trump has roughly a 45% chance of winning. I don't think my bets above are a lock by any means... however... do they have value? Well... considering that the price is now -170 I would say Yes, they do.

I haven't seen 1 single screen shot from ANY Trump supporters that have bet on him. There are 100's of people on SBR that GUARANTEE Trump's victory... and not a single one of them has posted a screenshot of them betting on Trump. You're telling me it's because they think 5Dimes will be out of business in 4 months? I'm not buying it. It's either because they don't believe their own words... or they are broke.

John, they don’t have any money. 100% broke. Rudy is stressing about his unemployment benefits going away.

[mjsuax13]

Apparently itsamazing777 doesn't know.

Far gone off the deep end? How so? Look at the first post in this thread... is anything in that first post incorrect?

Tell me which post in this thread that makes you think I am "far gone off the deep end".

Any disagreement with Wrong Side Rudy is a name calling you are far gone off the deep end message. Usually it’s followed up by soyboy, liberal, democrat, blah blah blah, etc... he has TCS (Trump Cocksucking Syndrome). Trump is taking his benefits though soon and then he will be in a panic for any candidate that gives him and extra $50 a week.

[mjsuax13]

Exactly. Repubs sure he will win. Dems saying he has no chance. Same old shit.

LOL. Exactly. Just get to the debates.

[mjsuax13]

This is the case every single election forever. About 10-15% of the swing voters make up an election at damn near every level.

[mjsuax13]

It gets so old listening to dems and repubs talk shit to each other about which douche bag their party is carting out this year. Same shit over and over.
Now for another post about how Trump is great or terrible. Sigh.

The sad part is they both think these political operatives for Wall Street, special interest groups and the ruling class actually give a damn about them.

[JohnGalt2341]

I heard the White House task force is going to start doing daily briefings again. We don't know yet how much Trump will be speaking at these briefings... but if I know Trump I suspect that he will be speaking FAR more than he should.

Trump's currently at +156 at 5Dimes. Let's see if these briefings help or hurt him.

[vitterd]

I heard the White House task force is going to start doing daily briefings again. We don't know yet how much Trump will be speaking at these briefings... but if I know Trump I suspect that he will be speaking FAR more than he should.

Trump's currently at +156 at 5Dimes. Let's see if these briefings help or hurt him.

I can’t believe he’s only +156. He should be plus at least 400. At least.

[Tanko]

I heard the White House task force is going to start doing daily briefings again. We don't know yet how much Trump will be speaking at these briefings... but if I know Trump I suspect that he will be speaking FAR more than he should.

Trump's currently at +156 at 5Dimes. Let's see if these briefings help or hurt him.

Apparently, it is going to be a Coronavirus task force briefing without the task force (subject to change). The WH said it was going to be a Trump solo show but some aides pushed back so who knows if others will be there to help cover for Trump.

Also, it won't be just about coronavirus. He's going to talk about lots of other subjects (China trade, Portland Feds arresting protesters, Biden, etc...) so I doubt we'll hear much more than a few minutes on Covid-19.

I'm expecting the odds will improve for Trump if he does these as planned 2-3x per week. It can't possibly get worse, right? It all depends on if he goes off the rails like the last time (inject disinfectant, etc...).



If he stays to answer questions, what are the odds a reporter brings up injecting disinfectant or hydrochloroquin? +140?

[RudyRuetigger]

Apparently, it is going to be a Coronavirus task force briefing without the task force (subject to change). The WH said it was going to be a Trump solo show but some aides pushed back so who knows if others will be there to help cover for Trump.

Also, it won't be just about coronavirus. He's going to talk about lots of other subjects (China trade, Portland Feds arresting protesters, Biden, etc...) so I doubt we'll hear much more than a few minutes on Covid-19.

I'm expecting the odds will improve for Trump if he does these as planned 2-3x per week. It can't possibly get worse, right? It all depends on if he goes off the rails like the last time (inject disinfectant, etc...).



If he stays to answer questions, what are the odds a reporter brings up injecting disinfectant or hydrochloroquin? +140?

did you see hydroxychloroquine works?

figures you spelled it wrong


did you see what fauci said about swine flu during obamas run?



id have a beer with you, but if we talk about politics........ill tell you...........you are a goddamn cuck

[vitterd]

did you see hydroxychloroquine works?

figures you spelled it wrong


did you see what fauci said about swine flu during obamas run?



id have a beer with you, but if we talk about politics........ill tell you...........you are a goddamn cuck

Hydrochlorquine works just like auto donk is a brain surgeon.

[RudyRuetigger]

Hydrochlorquine works just like auto donk is a brain surgeon.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/02/health/hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus-detroit-study/index.html#:~:text=%28CNN%29%20A%20surprising%20new%20study%20found%20the%20controversial,government%27s%20use%20of%20the%20drug%20itself%2C%20were%20disputed.

took me 20 seconds to find a cnn article

[RudyRuetigger]

we used hydroxychloroquine for decades


since trump said it COULD work


you fukkin dumbasses have said it causes more problem



just a complete clown show from you idiots

[JohnGalt2341]

Apparently, it is going to be a Coronavirus task force briefing without the task force (subject to change). The WH said it was going to be a Trump solo show but some aides pushed back so who knows if others will be there to help cover for Trump.

Also, it won't be just about coronavirus. He's going to talk about lots of other subjects (China trade, Portland Feds arresting protesters, Biden, etc...) so I doubt we'll hear much more than a few minutes on Covid-19.

I'm expecting the odds will improve for Trump if he does these as planned 2-3x per week. It can't possibly get worse, right? It all depends on if he goes off the rails like the last time (inject disinfectant, etc...).



If he stays to answer questions, what are the odds a reporter brings up injecting disinfectant or hydrochloroquin? +140?

Yeah, I suspect much of it will just be Trump talking about what a great job he's doing and how many millions would be dead if he wasn't in charge.

I don't care what anyone says... these briefings hilarious! It's like watching the world's worst magician doing the same tricks over and over again... hoping to fool some new people. I don't think he's going to fool anyone new... I suspect Trump's odds will never dip below +150 again.

[RudyRuetigger]

Yeah, I suspect much of it will just be Trump talking about what a great job he's doing and how many millions would be dead if he wasn't in charge.

I don't care what anyone says... these briefings hilarious! It's like watching the world's worst magician doing the same tricks over and over again... hoping to fool some new people. I don't think he's going to fool anyone new... I suspect Trump's odds will never dip below +150 again.

remember, you are an independant


fukkin clown

you start more threads cussing out republicans in the last year than i have in 10 here

remember that

[vitterd]

remember, you are an independant


fukkin clown

you start more threads cussing out republicans in the last year than i have in 10 here

remember that

Lots of independents hate Trump and are embarrassed by him. As they should be.

[JohnGalt2341]

remember, you are an independant


fukkin clown

you start more threads cussing out republicans in the last year than i have in 10 here

remember that

Cussing out Republicans? I've never started such a thread about this ever. You insult more people in one day than I do in a year.

Take a look at this thread. Look at post #1. Is there anything not factual in that post? These are facts my friend. I'm sorry that you don't like them.

[RudyRuetigger]

Cussing out Republicans? I've never started such a thread about this ever. You insult more people in one day than I do in a year.

Take a look at this thread. Look at post #1. Is there anything not factual in that post? These are facts my friend. I'm sorry that you don't like them.

you are a little bitch

thats the fact