stanford and usc studies both find covid-19 death rate between 0.1%-0.2%

[fried cheese]

these studies have not been peer reviewed so they might not be accurate. after antibody tests they found that the disease was highly contagious but much less deadly than previous estimates. stanford estimated the virus was 50-85 times more prevalent than the current statistics.

also 200 ppl in massachusetts were tested randomly on the street and roughly 1/3 tested positive for covid-19 antibodies.

[Hman]

after antibody tests they found that the disease was highly contagious but much less deadly than previous estimates. stanford estimated the virus was 50-85 times more prevalent than the current statistics.

This is what I don't understand when I hear that Covid is supposedly more contagious than the flu.

According to mathematical statistics, the flu is more contagious, but Covid is more deadly:


Infections

COVID-19: Approximately 2,494,915 cases worldwide; 787,960 cases in the U.S. as of Apr. 21, 2020.*

Flu: Estimated 1 billion cases worldwide; 9.3 million to 45 million cases in the U.S. per year.

Deaths

COVID-19: Approximately 171,249 deaths reported worldwide; 42,364 deaths in the U.S., as of Apr. 21, 2020.*

Flu: 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year.

[gojetsgomoxies]

so we did all this for the flu?\

i'm no trump/conspiracy/insane person...... but i've wondered if this is bureaucratic overkill.

i had someone in front of me at the grocery store freaking out about touching a credit card machine button once...... LOL

open tennis courts near me, but people imploring you to check with government to see if they are open.........

[Hman]

so we did all this for the flu?\

No, it's 2-3 times deadlier than the flu. (So far)


Let's say 60,000 deaths from the flu in the U.S. each year.

By 6 months in with Covid, we'll be somewhere around that number already

[SBR_Guest_Pro]

oh boy, that means more people are going to protest

[Booya711]

No, it's 2-3 times deadlier than the flu. (So far)

Let's say 60,000 deaths from the flu in the U.S. each year.

By 6 months in with Covid, we'll be somewhere around that number already

still nothing when you really think about it....

[gojetsgomoxies]

No, it's 2-3 times deadlier than the flu. (So far)

Hman, thanks for the color. i appreciate it

2-3 more deadly than flu isn't that big a deal either.................

all of this is a big deal for older people, as is the common flue . sweden basically just quarantined the older population. i think what we should have done (canada/usa). and at least stratified things by age group.

i am somewhat torn on vegas casinos....... frankly, i think it's something the world might be better without...... but that's just my own value judgement

[d2bets]

This is what I don't understand when I hear that Covid is supposedly more contagious than the flu.

According to mathematical statistics, the flu is more contagious, but Covid is more deadly:


Infections

COVID-19: Approximately 2,494,915 cases worldwide; 787,960 cases in the U.S. as of Apr. 21, 2020.*

Flu: Estimated 1 billion cases worldwide; 9.3 million to 45 million cases in the U.S. per year.

Deaths

COVID-19: Approximately 171,249 deaths reported worldwide; 42,364 deaths in the U.S., as of Apr. 21, 2020.*

Flu: 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year.

These numbers do not mean that the flu is more contagious.
a) Covid-19 only really started here a couple months ago
b) the extreme mitigation is slowing the spread more than you can imagine. If we went about our lives like we always do with the flu, the contagion would be orders of magnitude more than the flu.

[fried cheese]

This is what I don't understand when I hear that Covid is supposedly more contagious than the flu.

According to mathematical statistics, the flu is more contagious, but Covid is more deadly:


Infections

COVID-19: Approximately 2,494,915 cases worldwide; 787,960 cases in the U.S. as of Apr. 21, 2020.*

Flu: Estimated 1 billion cases worldwide; 9.3 million to 45 million cases in the U.S. per year.

Deaths

COVID-19: Approximately 171,249 deaths reported worldwide; 42,364 deaths in the U.S., as of Apr. 21, 2020.*

Flu: 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year.

a person with the flu infects 1.3 other ppl on average. something like measles is around 12-18. the corona virus has just been slowed by social distancing and has not had as much time as the flu to become prevalent in our population.

[gojetsgomoxies]

i think i have USA about 16 days from 100k deaths............. i come up with growth rate....... say 5%... use "rule of 72" to get time double. so that's 14 days. we are a few days away from 50k deaths. then 14 days to double............ might be moderately longer as that growth rate is slowly decreasing.

[gojetsgomoxies]

a person with the flu infects 1.3 other ppl on average. something like measles is around 12-18. the corona virus has just been slowed by social distancing and has not had as much time as the flu to become prevalent in our population.

this probably did need to be controlled............. is another solution to have the virus slowly work its way through everyone who is very unlikely to die from it? or does that take too long?

[gojetsgomoxies]

i didn't realize 2009 H1N1 (bird?) flu was just a very widespread flu......

basically everything for many years has either been only contagious or only deadly.. NOT both.. CV-19 was/is supposed to be both

[JIBBBY]

No one dies in California from Corona.. It's a joke here and we still shut down.. Frigg'n Newsom!!!

[jjgold]

More deadly is much more Important than more contagious

[SBR_Guest_Pro]

No one dies in California from Corona.. It's a joke here and we still shut down.. Frigg'n Newsom!!!

Mayor Breed in SF called for a Local emergency before there was even one case in Northern California. I work in the Hotel Industry and people started calling to cancel right after. Had to tell a lot people no refund for it because we followed the CDC and not a fake local emergency declaration

[Louisvillekid1]

Cali should just be sunk into the pacific ocean

Fukk all these theories and numbers

protect your family

lets do a Stanford prison experiment with sbr posters



or are we already in that

[blackbart]

the worst flu outbreak h1n1 killed 12,000 people

[Chi_archie]

This is what I don't understand when I hear that Covid is supposedly more contagious than the flu.

you can't do a comparison like that

Unless we had #'s from a year of Flu where we had stay at home orders or
#'s from a year of Covid with NO stay at home orders, masks, social distancing.


Its too big of a Variable to allow any comparisons using statistics.

What we do have are the R naught #'s, and this is where people hear the word exponential but don't understand it (which is disappointing here for gamblers that should have decent math skills)

Covid 2.2
Flu 1.3

So if the Flu gets passed from me to my avg of 1.3 people, and they pass it on the their avgs of 1.3 people and so and so on.

at the end of 10 rounds of it being passed.

My Flu, resulted in about 14 cases of the Flu total


If I have Covid19 and pass it on to the 2.3 people on avg, and they pass it on to 2.3 people on avg and so and so on

at the end of 10 rounds of passing

My Covid resulted in 9,528 cases of Covid total

[Hman]

still nothing when you really think about it....

Hman, thanks for the color. i appreciate it

2-3 more deadly than flu isn't that big a deal either.................

all of this is a big deal for older people, as is the common flue . sweden basically just quarantined the older population. i think what we should have done (canada/usa). and at least stratified things by age group.

i am somewhat torn on vegas casinos....... frankly, i think it's something the world might be better without...... but that's just my own value judgement

I guess, not really

The problem is now it's ADDITIONAL deaths on top of the flu

[Hman]

Guys I am estimating based on actual statistics we currently have.

Of course nothing is 100% accurate.

[Hman]

These numbers do not mean that the flu is more contagious.
a) Covid-19 only really started here a couple months ago
b) the extreme mitigation is slowing the spread more than you can imagine. If we went about our lives like we always do with the flu, the contagion would be orders of magnitude more than the flu.

Even if you take away the social distancing the Covid infections wouldn't reach the estimated 1 Billion per year the flu does.

[fried cheese]

Guys I am estimating based on actual statistics we currently have.

Of course nothing is 100% accurate.

lets say 2/3 of the usa gets this if we do nothing and the death rate is .15%. thats 220 million infected with 330k deaths. now with the shut down we lower that to 60k deaths. the shut down temporarily saved 270k lives. with a 2.2 trillion bailout that is over 8 million spent per life saved. that doesnt include the money lost from the shutdown.

[Chi_archie]

Even if you take away the social distancing the Covid infections wouldn't reach the estimated 1 Billion per year the flu does.

yes it would

here is the other part of your mistake. You are comparing estimations to actual positive tests of selective populations.

The Flu numbers are estimated. 9.3 million-45 million people don't go to the doctor's office in the US every year and get tested or diagnosed based on symptoms. they calculate it by inputing the data of actual cases and using the R naught numbers I referenced above.


The Covid numbers you are using are Positive tests. That is the worst of the worst that have bad symptoms AND get tested. More often than not people don't even get tested at the Doctor's they just get sent home or told to stay at home via video chat. A bigger amount of people will not have symptoms enough to even warrant thinking they need a doctor or a test.


The Stanford test the OP was referencing is telling us that. a HUGE number of people are getting infected and recovering and never knowing.


this is really really really fantastic news.

[Hman]

lets say 2/3 of the usa gets this if we do nothing and the death rate is .15%. thats 220 million infected with 330k deaths. now with the shut down we lower that to 60k deaths. the shut down temporarily saved 270k lives. with a 2.2 trillion bailout that is over 8 million spent per life saved. that doesnt include the money lost from the shutdown.

What ever happened to the belief that no amount of money can replace a life?

[Hman]

The Stanford test the OP was referencing is telling us that. a HUGE number of people are getting infected and recovering and never knowing.





this is really really really fantastic news.

But then you have other doctors & scientists contradicting that by saying it doesn't necessarily leave your system and can reactivate.

We honestly won't know more accurate details untul 12&18 months in

[fried cheese]

What ever happened to the belief that no amount of money can replace a life?

life insurance.

[gojetsgomoxies]

What ever happened to the belief that no amount of money can replace a life?

i think of stuff like this all the time........... we don't really live to this ideal though. tons of highway deaths. but highways are considered integral to our existence.

[Chi_archie]

But then you have other doctors & scientists contradicting that by saying it doesn't necessarily leave your system and can reactivate.

We honestly won't know more accurate details untul 12&18 months in

that is a completely different topic

but as far as that goes.... we have a few very small groups (none of them US) saying they've had positive tests after negative tests in very small amounts.

it is too miniscule and flimsy to even worry about at this point.

[Hman]

life insurance.

I understand a large majority of the deaths involve those who are already sickly.

But that shouldn't mean they should automatically be issued a death sentence just because this virus came along and everyone else wants to move on.

I'm 100% certain that every one of us would think differently if we or a loved one was on their death bed becauses of it.

[fried cheese]

I understand a large majority of the deaths involve those who are already sickly.

But that shouldn't mean they should automatically be issued a death sentence just because this virus came along and everyone else wants to move on

no one is forcing them to leave their house. you can self quarantine without being ordered to. the propaganda i learned in school about the usa was more in line with liberty over safety.

[Hman]

no one is forcing them to leave their house. you can self quarantine without being ordered to. the propaganda i learned in school about the usa was more in line with liberty over safety.

I guess the way I see is it is that it wouldn't kill us to just be more patient and wait a little bit longer until we know more about the virus.

What if we find out later that once you have it, you have it permanently?

[milwaukee mike]

I understand a large majority of the deaths involve those who are already sickly.

But that shouldn't mean they should automatically be issued a death sentence just because this virus came along and everyone else wants to move on.

I'm 100% certain that every one of us would think differently if we or a loved one was on their death bed becauses of it.

if someone was old/sick they could've just self-quarantined or went on lockdown like the nursing homes did

locking healthy people in their homes did nobody any good... we could've killed a few more old people and saved a ton more young people... we probably will have exponentially more suicides because of the economy than we have in virus deaths

[Hman]

if someone was old/sick they could've just self-quarantined or went on lockdown like the nursing homes did

locking healthy people in their homes did nobody any good... we could've killed a few more old people and saved a ton more young people... we probably will have exponentially more suicides because of the economy than we have in virus deaths

But again if you see my post above, it's too early to know the long-term effects of this virus

Nobody is gonna starve and it is not going to kill anyone to just stay home a little bit longer until we know for sure it's safe to move on

[MinnesotaFats]

The death rate is calculated based on closed cases.

Just because people tested are found with trace elements of LEFTOVER RNA doesn't mean they've had Covid19.

Anyone born before 1964 has trace elements of radioactive isotopes from atmospheric testing, yet they aren't radioactive themselves.

The tests are worthless and mean nothing.

[zam77]

It’s all about gaining momentum and confidence come May 1st. The precautions to date I can live with considering the unknowns going into it. The damage to the economy has been done but there’s the damage to the mental psyche and way of life is still salvageable if things start getting back to normal May 1