Let’s talk ncaaFB week 12

[2daBank]

Auburn looks like the right side on this one. Since they only lost by 11 a month ago at Florida and by 3 at LSU more recently, the +3 line at home look like it is slightly favorable to Auburn. Georgia has a lot to play for (stay in top 4 CFB playoff rankings) so they will be pumped up. I think this is going to come down to last possession in the game which makes it tough to bet on.

I'm laying off this game. Good luck.

I think Uga defense is far and away the best one auburn will have seen tho. Granted they finally get one these tough games at home for a change which might help the young qb? I just don’t see them scoring much tho.,

My hesitancy on la tech is mostly based off AG saying the injuries. As mentioned I havnt had a chance to cap it yet.

[2daBank]

I was just bout to say I think my teaser bout to get blasted with a Steelers turnover cause they kept getting pinned deep. Fukk

[asiagambler]

At worst, should have chances for backdoor cover. Browns should ease up if up 2 scores

[2daBank]

Yes there's so much talent on this Browns team, I feel like they should be up two touchdowns right now

I'm glad we got on under instead

No doubt. I mentioned in one thread or another proclaiming it has to be “fixed” if Steelers lose. That a more reasonable person would say they could easily lose cause browns defense chews up the backup qb and Steelers crappy offense.

[2daBank]

Wow. That was actually a really good throw/play by Faker.

[2daBank]

Great S&T. I am also on Minn.

Here is my card so far this weekend:

• La Tech +2.5 (looking at ML). Upset pick. Bet the spread but think ML likely. Already discussed.
• Virg Tech -5.5 The weakness for V. Tech is passing D but G. Tech is mostly run team and not a very good Offense in general (#116 in tot yds) so their D will be on the field a lot and get worn down by V. Tech. It may take until after half for V Tech to open this up but they will score more easily while G. Tech won't keep up.
• Minn +3 OK. Iowa D is good. Iowa rushing D is exceptionally good. Now that we've got that out of the way. I see Minn passing to win this game. IA passing D can be beat. Obviously Minn is on a roll. Iowa is a little on tilt in "BIG" games. Lost to Mich by 7, Penn St @ Hm by 5, and Wisc by 2. Wisc game probably the best showing for them in these games. So in when compariing Iowa's performance when they play simliar teams they lose by 2-7 pts. I see Minn holding Iowa to around 20 pts. Can Minn score 17 or MORE... Yes.
• Wyom +6.5. I had this as an Upset win. I took the points but should have bet the ML. Wyo runs the ball well and stops the run well. This will mean Utah St has to pass to win IMO. Wyo pass D is not great but good enough to pull this game out. I put Wyo on par with BYU as far as performance level and BYU crushed Utah St (who was at home) by 28 two weeks ago.
• Navy + 9.5. Won't need to discuss. There are are already a lot of comments on this game through various threads/posts.
• USC -6.5 Already commented on above.
• Baylor +10 Already commented on above.

There are a couple of others I'm looking at but, so far I'm more confident in the ones shown here.
Like S&T indicated, I'm also seeing a number of games with value this weekend.

I think BYU/wyo a pretty decent comparison for this game. BYU even with their 2nd/3rd string QBs still have better passing attack than wyo, wyo the better rushing attack, but the comparison good far as the big physical nature of both a tough matchup for Utah st imo. Another thing which great about catching points w wyo is they very good in red zone on both sides of the ball (the main reason I loved getting 17 vs Boise last week).,

I think gophers comes completely down to whether or not they able to get back up after last weeks huge game? They play like they have been they clearly the better team imo. Guy I respect was telling me he was super excited to get Iowa as dogs this week which woulda made sense, he was not happy with the line!!! Lol

Didn’t notice the Vtech game but initial thought would def be lay the small number w them. Kinda identified them as more a play on team here in the second half. Think that unc 6 ot win kinda turned their season around.,

That bout all I got on those as of now (as you said we have discussed the navy game plenty here and other places).

[fecgp40]

Anyone like Kansas St -14? I feel they cover that number here. WVU is simply awful.

[fecgp40]

Ohio St. -52.5 pts. They should cover easily but damn, that is a lot of points. This could be the game Ohio St. plays the practice squad after going up by 30 just to get reps in and most importantly, could Ohio St be looking ahead to the Penn St. game next week and have a let down & win by only 50????



Obviously, Indiana at +14.5 looks better than the +14 it opened.

• Is there any chance, Penn St comes out for blood to offset the Minn loss last week and try to get back into the playoff hunt?
• Are they looking ahead to Ohio St game next week?

I think its the latter (they're likely looking ahead). +14.5 looks pretty good but not great IMO. Penn St. should win but not cover. Teams PSU has played recently that are similar in performance level to Indiana are Iowa, Mich, MSU and won by 5, 7, & 21 respectively. MSU is worse than Ind. Mich is better and Iowa on par. I think it shows PSU can be held to within a reasonable spread.



Auburn/Georgia - too close to call. I'd lean Auburn since they are at home and getting points but the value is tough to wager on at +3.

I like the Indiana play. I agree it's more likely PSU will be looking ahead to Ohio St than being fired up after losing to Minny. They're just not impressive offensively and I think it's very reasonable to say Indiana will keep this within 2 scores.

[fecgp40]

Anyone like Kansas St -14? I feel they cover that number here. WVU is simply awful.

Just to add... The only game within the last month WVU had kept close was vs. Baylor and we all know how inconsistent their offense can be.

[Tanko]

Before considering LA Tech, you should note line has actually ballooned out to +4.5

It would seem to indicate their QB Jamar Smith (and possibly others) are going to be suspended

Another thing is Marshall is coming off their bye week while LA Tech played on Saturday

No details on why they are suspended. I just finished looking over this game this morning when the line was still 2.5. This announcement must have come out late this afternoon. That sucks. Line moved up to 6. Going to need some luck now on this game.

[swordsandtequila]

No details on why they are suspended. I just finished looking over this game this morning when the line was still 2.5. This announcement must have come out late this afternoon. That sucks. Line moved up to 6. Going to need some luck now on this game.

Yep, qb out for this game, starting wr and lb out for this and next. Fighting for a spot in their conference championship and these knuckleheads get suspended . Thanks AG, this one's now a pass. Too bad, as a dog I liked their shot to win outright. Also good call on NC/Pitt over, got it at 48.5 (GTBets). Carolina guy, like what Mack is doing with the team. Howell's got game for freshman, doesn't panic under fire. Thought those early overthrows/drops were gonna screw us but they always seem to wake up in the 4th quarter. Helped minimize the losses on Steeler game. Fukn' Schobert was 4yds from cashing my dartboard prop and gets tackled by the qb

[swordsandtequila]

Anyone like Kansas St -14? I feel they cover that number here. WVU is simply awful.

They're on my short (long ) list.

[Tanko]

Anyone like Kansas St -14? I feel they cover that number here. WVU is simply awful.

I would lean that way. KSU at home makes it even more likely. WVU is playing worse lately overall (exception is the Baylor game -but that seems like a one-off when you look at WVU's season). They got back to their normal WVU ways when they played Texas Tech. I anticipate they won't be "up" for this game, because I don't see they have anything to play for and this game's on the road (tougher to get pumped up).

WVU (1-3 ATS) KSU (4-0 ATS) recently.
WVU is well below average D against KSU well above avg O.
Texas Loss by KSU may have been demoralizing but they played well on the road and better than expected so I dont see it carrying forward.

Not need to worry about KSU looking ahead either (Texas Tech next week).

I don't plan to bet this game unless I hit a few morning games. I've got a really full card for Saturday. Also, I don't like laying DD unless the game is an absolute lock (and never DD on the road).

[SilverTongueFox]

Tonight’s play is FRES/SDSU under 45. I actually leaned Marshall but with the injuries I’m passing.

I’ve got a long list of leans for tomorrow. I’m not about to list them all here but here are a few:
Iowa -3
Georgia/Auburn over 40.5
Memphis/Houston under 70
Kentucky/Vandy over 41
Michigan St +14
Missouri +7
Hawaii/UNLV under 73.5 (might be my favorite)
So Miss/UTSA under 52.5
Nebraska +14.5
Rice +14.5
TX St +7

[BigdaddyQH]

Wow... Great minds.
I am already on Wyoming +6.5 and Navy +9.5 as well. Wyoming is a possibly UPSET pick on my card.

La Tech +2.5 is another I'm considering very strongly (possibly ML).

I like USC -6.5. I know Colorado had a good game last time out but I think USC offense will make the difference and score it up on them.

Baylor at +10 looks very enticing but I'm still needing to look at some more data before jumping on it.

I do not know where you come up with Navy + 9 1/2 when the line is now 7. Unless you wagered the Navy game on Monday, you did not get 9 1/2. Perhaps you forgot to mention the ridiculous vig you gave to buy those extra points. Posters in here are famous for that. Anything to hide the truth about how much they have lost. What are you talking about with USC -6 1/2. What has Colorado got to do with it? They played USC in October. Do you even know who USC is playing? If you guys cannot even post the correct teams, do not post at all.

[Tanko]

Tonight’s play is FRES/SDSU under 45. I actually leaned Marshall but with the injuries I’m passing.

This is an interesting game. An awesome Fresno O against a pretty good SDSU D (both in top 20% statistcally). On the other side SDSU O is horrible, BUT so is Freno's D (each in bottom 10-20%).

Based on scores against similar recent opponents, I would expect a 28-24 Fresno over SDSU game. That means I would lean over but like I said with the good/bad Off and Def matchups how do you know if it'll be a defensive game or not. This is tough to call.

Good luck Silver..Fox

[Tanko]

I do not know where you come up with Navy + 9 1/2 when the line is now 7. Unless you wagered the Navy game on Monday, you did not get 9 1/2. Perhaps you forgot to mention the ridiculous vig you gave to buy those extra points. Posters in here are famous for that. Anything to hide the truth about how much they have lost. What are you talking about with USC -6 1/2. What has Colorado got to do with it? They played USC in October. Do you even know who USC is playing? If you guys cannot even post the correct teams, do not post at all.

Thanks for the comments Bigdaddy. The colorado reference was typo (apologies). Should have said Calif. I will fix it. Thanks for catching it.

And yes. I did get +9.5 at BOL on Sunday night when the line came out. I believe it opened at +10. I thought it looked so good I jumped immediately. I would still take it at +7 or better. I usually take a few games at the opening lines if I think there is value and the possibilty they will drop. Another example of a line I chose to damn early is La Tech. I took the at +2.5 and then players were suspended yesterday so its up to +6. Sometimes early lines pay off sometimes you get burned.


An I agree, a lot of people cherry pick lines and thats not right. I do not. I have no skin in the game to impress anyone on SBR. I just want to exchange information.

Again, thanks for the comments.
Good luck this week.

[Tanko]

Bigdaddy - Do you have any plays this weekend?
Would love to see them.

[SilverTongueFox]

This is an interesting game. An awesome Fresno O against a pretty good SDSU D (both in top 20% statistcally). On the other side SDSU O is horrible, BUT so is Freno's D (each in bottom 10-20%).

Based on scores against similar recent opponents, I would expect a 28-24 Fresno over SDSU game. That means I would lean over but like I said with the good/bad Off and Def matchups how do you know if it'll be a defensive game or not. This is tough to call.

Good luck Silver..Fox

Fresno has good balance on offense which is what makes them go. If you look at Fresno losses the run game wasn’t as effective. SDSU is very stout vs the run so I’d expect SDSU to take away the run game and keep Fresno in 3rd and long all night. Neither team turns it over much especially SDSU. I’m expecting a field position game tonight. Hopefully a lot of the run game and dink n dunk passing which will keep clock running. If it were in Fresno I could get on board with the 28pts for the Bulldogs however on the road vs a stout SDSU D I just don’t see that many points. It’s a coin flip who wins this one but I like 20-23 / 14-17 type game.

[Tanko]

Tough to argue with your logic Silver..Fox.
Hope it pays out well for you tonight.
Good luck.

[Buckandadime]

This is an interesting game. An awesome Fresno O against a pretty good SDSU D (both in top 20% statistcally). On the other side SDSU O is horrible, BUT so is Freno's D (each in bottom 10-20%).

Based on scores against similar recent opponents, I would expect a 28-24 Fresno over SDSU game. That means I would lean over but like I said with the good/bad Off and Def matchups how do you know if it'll be a defensive game or not. This is tough to call.

Good luck Silver..Fox

Fresno has good balance on offense which is what makes them go. If you look at Fresno losses the run game wasn’t as effective. SDSU is very stout vs the run so I’d expect SDSU to take away the run game and keep Fresno in 3rd and long all night. Neither team turns it over much especially SDSU. I’m expecting a field position game tonight. Hopefully a lot of the run game and dink n dunk passing which will keep clock running. If it were in Fresno I could get on board with the 28pts for the Bulldogs however on the road vs a stout SDSU D I just don’t see that many points. It’s a coin flip who wins this one but I like 20-23 / 14-17 type game.

I played SD St in a teaser..
Agree it will be close..
Giving the edge to the home team vs the run..
Fingers crossed

[2daBank]

I like the Indiana play. I agree it's more likely PSU will be looking ahead to Ohio St than being fired up after losing to Minny. They're just not impressive offensively and I think it's very reasonable to say Indiana will keep this within 2 scores.

Franklin history/ats record the week after his team losses isn’t good at all. Don’t think pen st has covered a game under him the week following a loss as a fav.

[2daBank]

Anyone like Kansas St -14? I feel they cover that number here. WVU is simply awful.

Havnt looked but cant envision me laying 2 tds with that team.

[2daBank]

Tonight’s play is FRES/SDSU under 45. I actually leaned Marshall but with the injuries I’m passing.

I’ve got a long list of leans for tomorrow. I’m not about to list them all here but here are a few:
Iowa -3
Georgia/Auburn over 40.5
Memphis/Houston under 70
Kentucky/Vandy over 41
Michigan St +14
Missouri +7
Hawaii/UNLV under 73.5 (might be my favorite)
So Miss/UTSA under 52.5
Nebraska +14.5
Rice +14.5
TX St +7

Some quick thoughts:

I have to look at tonight’s total but that is pretty damn low for a horrid Fresno defense isn’t it? Sdst offense has no big play juice so not saying you wrong, could be a team doing whatever they want to this fresno d will be sdst being their typical methodical selves?


Dunno how anyone could get on board with corn? I think wiscy beats their brakes off.,

I’d be wary of mizzou, sounds like Bryant gonna play but with a bad hammy how effective he gonna be since running around a big part of his game? Mizzou does have the craziest home/road splits in all the ncaa, so you have that goin for you. I’d be afraid gators pass rush will be all over Bryant tho., gonna have to look at tigers defense vs gators offense.

After watching uk last week I can’t see getting behind a over in a game they involved in, their qb can’t throw!! Lol.

[Buckandadime]

No talk of Bama or Whisky?
Even if Tua is out I think Bama rolls by 24+..
Wisconsin should be able to bitch slap Nebraska but why did the line open so low?
Am I missing something there?

[2daBank]

No talk of Bama or Whisky?
Even if Tua is out I think Bama rolls by 24+..
Wisconsin should be able to bitch slap Nebraska but why did the line open so low?
Am I missing something there?

I have heard strong cases for both sides the bama game. What I think makes most sense in that game is the under. A game after a Saban defense got embarrassed? I know this far from one his best defenses but better believe that what he harping on this week!!! And sip st has no offensive juice, I think bama holds them to a very low number. If Tua plays he still not 100%, everyone looking at the yards he put up last week and think he fine but he had I believe his worst completion percentage and didn’t run around much. Don’t make a lot of sense to play him but even if he does I’d expect this to be a back to basic game for bama, defense and running the ball!!! Under 63 for me.

I mentioned I think wiscy Beats the brakes off corn but outside osu I hate laying points in the big-10, anytime I lay a sizable number in this conf it a total low scoring shit fest.

[swordsandtequila]

I do not know where you come up with Navy + 9 1/2 when the line is now 7. Unless you wagered the Navy game on Monday, you did not get 9 1/2. Perhaps you forgot to mention the ridiculous vig you gave to buy those extra points. Posters in here are famous for that. Anything to hide the truth about how much they have lost. What are you talking about with USC -6 1/2. What has Colorado got to do with it? They played USC in October. Do you even know who USC is playing? If you guys cannot even post the correct teams, do not post at all.

Hey numbnuts, Pinnacle was hanging 9.5 as of Wednesday morning. Maybe YOU should stop posting.

[Tanko]

No talk of Bama or Whisky?
Even if Tua is out I think Bama rolls by 24+..
Wisconsin should be able to bitch slap Nebraska but why did the line open so low?
Am I missing something there?

Not on a side of Neb/Wisky but I love how you phrased it.
I agree its going to be ugly as the spread indicates.

[Buckandadime]

I have heard strong cases for both sides the bama game. What I think makes most sense in that game is the under. A game after a Saban defense got embarrassed? I know this far from one his best defenses but better believe that what he harping on this week!!! And sip st has no offensive juice, I think bama holds them to a very low number. If Tua plays he still not 100%, everyone looking at the yards he put up last week and think he fine but he had I believe his worst completion percentage and didn’t run around much. Don’t make a lot of sense to play him but even if he does I’d expect this to be a back to basic game for bama, defense and running the ball!!! Under 63 for me.

I mentioned I think wiscy Beats the brakes off corn but outside osu I hate laying points in the big-10, anytime I lay a sizable number in this conf it a total low scoring shit fest.

Not on a side of Neb/Wisky but I love how you phrased it.
I agree its going to be ugly as the spread indicates.

Thanks guys
I really like both in a teaser..
Any thoughts on Rutgers + half a century?
Do they have any heart left in them and will the Buckeyes just be showing up with PSU & Michigan the next 2 weeks?
Tough call but hard not to take the points, even if Rutgers has trouble just snapping the ball...

[Tanko]

Thanks guys
I really like both in a teaser..
Any thoughts on Rutgers + half a century?
Do they have any heart left in them and will the Buckeyes just be showing up with PSU & Michigan the next 2 weeks?
Tough call but hard not to take the points, even if Rutgers has trouble just snapping the ball...

Ohio St. -52.5 pts. They should cover easily but damn, that is a lot of points. This could be the game Ohio St. plays the practice squad after going up by 30 just to get reps in and most importantly, could Ohio St be looking ahead to the Penn St. game next week and have a let down & win by only 50????

Not much help here. See my reply to JJ yesterday....
JJ is looking at Ohio St as well so that could be the kiss of death (think seaweed)...

[Buckandadime]

Not much help here. See my reply to JJ yesterday....
JJ is looking at Ohio St as well so that could be the kiss of death (think seaweed)...

Lol..
Nice..
I'm thinking along the same lines as you are..
Why risk an injury with the importance of the next few weeks?
Im actually liking the points..
Gonna drink on it for a while

[2daBank]

Thanks guys
I really like both in a teaser..
Any thoughts on Rutgers + half a century?
Do they have any heart left in them and will the Buckeyes just be showing up with PSU & Michigan the next 2 weeks?
Tough call but hard not to take the points, even if Rutgers has trouble just snapping the ball...

I rarely get involved w 30 point spreads, 52??? Beats the shit out of me. Osu could win 70-0 if they so desired but who knows what they will choose to do? No chance I touch that shit.

[2daBank]

Lol..
Nice..
I'm thinking along the same lines as you are..
Why risk an injury with the importance of the next few weeks?
Im actually liking the points..
Gonna drink on it for a while

My personal opinion on a spread like that, if you can’t find better Games maybe best to take week off! Lol.

[Buckandadime]

I rarely get involved w 30 point spreads, 52??? Beats the shit out of me. Osu could win 70-0 if they so desired but who knows what they will choose to do? No chance I touch that shit.

That's the thing..
The more I look at it, the more I think OSU's second string could possibly cover..
Stepping away from the bong...

[BeatTheJerk]

Sorry it taken me so long to get thread up, been busy w other shit this week so havnt got a whole lot of work done on this card but wanna get it up so everyone can start sharing thoughts.

My favorite play of the week:

Wyoming +6.5/ml

Utah st continues to overvalued, they kinda remind me of wyo in Allen last year when he lost all his weapons, love not only lost most his weapons but also his head coach and they seem worse the further removed they get from him. Don’t let the fact they finally got the offense going vs a terrible Fresno defense fool you. They will have a much tougher go of it vs a very good cowboys defense. Don’t trip on wyo qb being out either cause like I said last week they don’t pass all the often or well anyways. Wyo all about the run game and they bludgeon teams for 4 qrtrs and that will completing wear down this Utah st team. Imo the better team is catching points in this one.


Leans at this point:

Navy +whatever., was hoping to get more point here so havnt pulled the trigger yet but ultimately pretty sure I will be on them. Irish catching another team off a bye which tough, Irish injury list is long and they have key defensive players dropping like flies. Navy the fresher/healthier team and lets face it are the banged up Irish really gonna be interested in fighting thru cut blocks all day?? In case anyone has forgot Irish a really good fade in November when they out of playoff contention. We stayed away last week cause line seemed short and we don’t like duke but think this another good spot to jump on the fade train.

I don’t think gophers are gonna let down here but it certainly possible. I just don’t like Iowa offense enough to think they should be favs here., minny gonna be a incredibly popular dog tho which not something I love.,

Kinda torn on the Sooners/Baylor game. I don’t trust Baylor offense at all but I do like their d and this feels little similar to gophers last week w the undefeated team getting no respect in rankings or by oddsmakers which usually a recipe to see a team play with their hair on fire. I dunno yet, gotta look into it more and see if i think Baylor offense can help the d out?


That all for the moment, plan on doing more work the next 2 nights, let’s keep this money train rolling as we been really hot the last few weeks!!!!

Totally agree with Wyoming Banker !!! Let's get this cash brother.