Let’s talk ncaa week 9

[Tanko]

I like Indiana +2.5 tomorrow vs NEB. I think it dropped to +2.

ATS

• Indiana 4-3 ATS but only lost ATS last week by 0.5 otherwise would have been 4-0 ATS last 4.
• Nebraska is on tilt 1-6 ATS (0-4 last 4 ATS).

Recent Games

• Indiana is coming off a 34-24 road win against a decent Maryland team.
• Nebraska was crushed by Minnesota last week 34-7.

Line movement/Injuries
Line opened at IU -2 and is now at IU +2.5. WHY THE BIG LINE MOVE? I think its due to Indiana QB Penix is questionable for the game. I think people are underestimating their backup QB Ramsey. Ramsey was the starter for IU in 2017 & 2018 with a decent QB rating. When Penix went down last week Ramsey came in and threw for 20/27 1 TD 0 INTs. If Penix plays, great. If not, Ramsey still has the experience and talent to win the game. Neither Penix/Ramsey rushes the ball a lot (if anything Ramsey is better) so that doesn't play into QB decision.

NEB starting QB Martinez did not play last game and is questionable against Indiana (knee). If he does play, I'm not too concerned since he does have knee issue and I think NEB may be pushing him to play too early just so they can salvage their season. Also, in my opinion is not that good of a QB. If he doesn't play, the line movement likely overshot its mark.

Additional Stats/SP+ Ratings on Offense/Defense
Indiana - 17th Off, 41st Def
NEB - 44th Off, 61st Def


Tell why this is wrong.

[shocka1212]

Auburn/LSU Under... or 1h under.. still deciding

[STANDARD BET]

Auburn/LSU Under... or 1h under.. still deciding

i like both

[fecgp40]

take a look at Pitts Head coach...... I would want no part of that game if I was anyone from Miami.

What do you mean by that?

[2daBank]

What do you mean by that?

I was curious myself

[2daBank]

I like Indiana +2.5 tomorrow vs NEB. I think it dropped to +2.

ATS

• Indiana 4-3 ATS but only lost ATS last week by 0.5 otherwise would have been 4-0 ATS last 4.
• Nebraska is on tilt 1-6 ATS (0-4 last 4 ATS).

Recent Games

• Indiana is coming off a 34-24 road win against a decent Maryland team.
• Nebraska was crushed by Minnesota last week 34-7.

Line movement/Injuries
Line opened at IU -2 and is now at IU +2.5. WHY THE BIG LINE MOVE? I think its due to Indiana QB Penix is questionable for the game. I think people are underestimating their backup QB Ramsey. Ramsey was the starter for IU in 2017 & 2018 with a decent QB rating. When Penix went down last week Ramsey came in and threw for 20/27 1 TD 0 INTs. If Penix plays, great. If not, Ramsey still has the experience and talent to win the game. Neither Penix/Ramsey rushes the ball a lot (if anything Ramsey is better) so that doesn't play into QB decision.

NEB starting QB Martinez did not play last game and is questionable against Indiana (knee). If he does play, I'm not too concerned since he does have knee issue and I think NEB may be pushing him to play too early just so they can salvage their season. Also, in my opinion is not that good of a QB. If he doesn't play, the line movement likely overshot its mark.

Additional Stats/SP+ Ratings on Offense/Defense
Indiana - 17th Off, 41st Def
NEB - 44th Off, 61st Def


Tell why this is wrong.

Good stuff.

I have a hard time arguing it. I kinda leaned same way. Corn sucks imo.

[fecgp40]

Good stuff.

I have a hard time arguing it. I kinda leaned same way. Corn sucks imo.

I agree with all this, but there are certainly better games on the board to play.

[Tanko]

I agree with all this, but there are certainly better games on the board to play.

Yeah... Agree. Just the first one I came across going through them.
There are 5-6 others that are on my list but I'm not done evaluating them.

What do you see fecgp? Anything stand out?

[2daBank]

I agree with all this, but there are certainly better games on the board to play.

I mean maybe in our eyes. I rarely tell someone there better games than the one they like. He may feel he has a better edge in that one than the rest?

[shocka1212]

tcu ml big wager.

I'm waiting until the line moves a little more in texas' favor to try and take as many points as possible. if I see +3 I'm unloading

[KDF500]

These “let’s talk CFB” threads are great and an interesting read. Win or lose it’s interesting to see how we pick things apart each week. Every detail.

credit to you Banker.

[2daBank]

Of course buffs gonna play great tonight when I pass. Fukkin team kills me.

[fecgp40]

Of course buffs gonna play great tonight when I pass. Fukkin team kills me.

Of course man. Story of my life. Whenever I pass I usually regret it. That being said, Buffs are total garbage. I just couldn't put my money on them.

[2daBank]

These “let’s talk CFB” threads are great and an interesting read. Win or lose it’s interesting to see how we pick things apart each week. Every detail.

credit to you Banker.

Thanks pal. I’m just the instigator tho. If it wasn’t for all the other guys contributing it just be me rambling to myself! Lol.

This one has more pages of crap than usual. The screwed up almost banning kinda derailed things for a minute. We back on track now tho!!

Glad you enjoy them, good to see ya it been awhile. Hope to have you contributing. You pumped for ncaa hoops?? I am!

[Tanko]

I'm waiting until the line moves a little more in texas' favor to try and take as many points as possible. if I see +3 I'm unloading

I agree with that Shocka. TCU is on my list. I was surprised about the line for TCU but expect it to climb as well. I think it will be a close game though. The only question is can TCU stop Texas Offense or at least have their offense keep up with the longhorns.

[2daBank]

I agree with that Shocka. TCU is on my list. I was surprised about the line for TCU but expect it to climb as well. I think it will be a close game though. The only question is can TCU stop Texas Offense or at least have their offense keep up with the longhorns.

I understand playing tcu but I expressed my concerns a few pages back. Short version, if game close as line suggest I just don’t wanna be holding a ticket against ehlinger, kid a bad ass. Pass for me.

[KDF500]

Thanks pal. I’m just the instigator tho. If it wasn’t for all the other guys contributing it just be me rambling to myself! Lol.

This one has more pages of crap than usual. The screwed up almost banning kinda derailed things for a minute. We back on track now tho!!

Glad you enjoy them, good to see ya it been awhile. Hope to have you contributing. You pumped for ncaa hoops?? I am!

Definitely. Super pumped

I dip and dab in other sports, but college hoops is certainly my preference. Looking like a good season ahead too.

[Tanko]

Checking out Banker/guys.
Got to take wife out for dancing and drinks.

Great thread. Really enjoy the exchange of thoughts on CFB. No garbage.
Exactly what SBR is about.

Back at it tomorrow.
Good Luck.

[STANDARD BET]

I think I've changed my mind and am on Penn State tomorrow. Everything smells like Spartans, but I'm not buying it. Basically calling bullshit on Vegas. Could go south, but fukk it.

Taking Maryland now. Line has dropped to 15. I've got Maryland capped at +13. So I still have good value. Don't see Minn winning this by more than 2tds. 2-2 at home against the spread. Only last 3 weeks have they won by comfortable margins, and against bad teams. Terps offense can do enough to put up some points on this defense.

Still looking at ASU game.

[pilebuck13]

Feel like people bet to many fukin games....Jesus Christ my head hurts.

[2daBank]

I think I've changed my mind and am on Penn State tomorrow. Everything smells like Spartans, but I'm not buying it. Basically calling bullshit on Vegas. Could go south, but fukk it.

Taking Maryland now. Line has dropped to 15. I've got Maryland capped at +13. So I still have good value. Don't see Minn winning this by more than 2tds. 2-2 at home against the spread. Only last 3 weeks have they won by comfortable margins, and against bad teams. Terps offense can do enough to put up some points on this defense.

Still looking at ASU game.

Not sure Terps not a bad team. Their season going in toilet fast. They might not even get to bowl eligible! I haven’t seen minny all year tho, no clue what I think bout them? Pass for me.

Don’t care bout Vegas. I had this game circled for a psu loss for some time and way psu looks makes me think they ripe to fall. They getting out gained every week. 14 1st downs last week. Sparty w week off and their season starts 2marro imo. Added bonus the weather supposed to be nasty!

Asu feels too damn easy. Scares me.

[asiagambler]

Maryland does get Anthony McFarland and Josh Jackson back but defense is still a problem

I thought about over but it's already up to 58

I still might bet them if it somehow gets to 17

[2daBank]

Maryland does get Anthony McFarland and Josh Jackson back but defense is still a problem

I thought about over but it's already up to 58

I still might bet them if it somehow gets to 17

Stats wise their numbers match up fairly closely. Terps just get all their good numbers in bunches then spend rest of time dragging the averages back down. Team is all over the map game to game. Just worry the season slipping away on them fast. But like I said I haven’t bet or seen minny 1 time this year so im really in the dark on them. I know they had a ton of close results early. They been blowing out big10 teams id say are similar to Terps lately (not counting buttgers). So I have no clue.

[2daBank]

Looking at a little ml dog round robin with

Wku
Louisville
Sparty
NW

And looking for maybe 1 more? Possibly Illini if weather makes it to where I don’t like the over therefor leaning to them.

[2daBank]

Vols could be in that group as well even tho I haven’t pulled the trigger on them for a straight ats wager as of yet.

[2daBank]

Well we know weather sure to be a factor at Pitt, look at the bottom drop out of that total. Real bummer I wasn’t on my game early this week because that looked like a good under at 48, not even bringing weather into it. I’m typically of the opinion unless we talking crazy strong wind I think ppl overreact too much to rain or snow pounding unders.

Bad conditions often can lead to points. Obviously not talking about totals lined in 60s, bad weather don’t help those but totals in the 40s? You often get defenders slipping, turnovers, all kinds of things that can help put points on the board yet these things always get pounded down.

[shocka1212]

I just don't see how Arkansas covers that spread. Bama is a small auto play this week for me.

[asiagambler]

Stats wise their numbers match up fairly closely. Terps just get all their good numbers in bunches then spend rest of time dragging the averages back down. Team is all over the map game to game. Just worry the season slipping away on them fast. But like I said I haven’t bet or seen minny 1 time this year so im really in the dark on them. I know they had a ton of close results early. They been blowing out big10 teams id say are similar to Terps lately (not counting buttgers). So I have no clue.

I think Terps have underperformed. Talent wise, I think the gap isn't too far. Maryland crushed them last year so maybe they have a blueprint against them or at least some confidence going into this matchup. With all that said, I decided to just dabble on the moneyline instead of the spread

Rutgers is +7.5 at home against Liberty

[asiagambler]

This is probably the most winnable game left on their schedule for Rutgers. Problem is their QB Langan is horrific. Can barely complete a pass.

Reading between the lines, I think the interim coach will do everything he can to win this game, meaning play the redshirt QB Snyder who actually has some passing ability.

Rutgers run game is the only thing about their team that's not horrible. Maybe Pacheco can do something against supposedly lower competition. Either way, I grabbed the 7.5

[asiagambler]

I really like East Carolina +2 against South Florida

I have no faith in Charlie Strong at this point. His team is horrible this year and look unprepared all the time. Blake Barnett is lost for the year. They may be down to 3rd stringer Kirk Rygol with Jordan McCloud hurt.

[Cuse0323]

This is probably the most winnable game left on their schedule for Rutgers. Problem is their QB Langan is horrific. Can barely complete a pass.

Reading between the lines, I think the interim coach will do everything he can to win this game, meaning play the redshirt QB Snyder who actually has some passing ability.

Rutgers run game is the only thing about their team that's not horrible. Maybe Pacheco can do something against supposedly lower competition. Either way, I grabbed the 7.5

I wish you well backing a team so awful that it’s even embarrassing to the dump of state Calle Jersey.

[asiagambler]

I wish you well backing a team so awful that it’s even embarrassing to the dump of state Calle Jersey.

Thanks, it really hinges on the QB. Langan has to be the worst I've ever seen. Words can't describe how bad he is lol. If he plays the entire game, then this has no shot but Campanile knows this is his only chance to win a game this year. Langan will start but I think we'll see Snyder at some point (hopefully)

[STANDARD BET]

Maryland does get Anthony McFarland and Josh Jackson back but defense is still a problem

I thought about over but it's already up to 58

I still might bet them if it somehow gets to 17

Yeah this is the key. Terps offense will be better this week. Gophers D line isn't all it's cracked up to be. Establishing a run game with McFarland gives them opportunity to work the clock. Gophers looking ahead to PSU. Terps do just enough here for me.

[2daBank]

I think Terps have underperformed. Talent wise, I think the gap isn't too far. Maryland crushed them last year so maybe they have a blueprint against them or at least some confidence going into this matchup. With all that said, I decided to just dabble on the moneyline instead of the spread

Rutgers is +7.5 at home against Liberty

Think it 1st time in history a school was paying another to come in and were dogs!! Lmao.

I’m more interested in the other dumpster bowl. Ucom laying 10 on the road? Yea right, think a money line in play on umass! Lol

[STANDARD BET]

I wouldn't bet that Rutgers game even if i had that sports almanac from back to the future