Let’s talk ncaa week 9

[2daBank]

I mentioned okie lite in the opening post but im off that game. Thought maybe them losing with everyone (except us) backing them last week might have gave us some value on the line but now that I’ve looked at this matchup I think the number justified.

Isu run d been really solid (which was lot of reason we liked Baylor last week), if you can slow down the okie lite run game the jury still out on their passing attack and that qb is a turnover waiting to happen. I’ve actually totally flipped from my initial reaction to this line and lean isu. Not sure I’m willing to lay it yet depending how card shapes up but it isu or nothing far as side.

The over is interesting but it high, I think for good reason. these teams got a history of lighting scoreboard up when they meet. Isu will absolutely put up points here imo. Okie lite will get down I think and have to play catch-up which will prob lead to points for them and turnovers leading to more isu points. I could easily see this game hit 70.

[shocka1212]

Dare I say Toledo protects their home field after getting their shit pushed in last week?

also, Memphis should beat the crap out of Tulsa even though I thought they were over valued.

[2daBank]

kinda want SMU ATS but idk seems like a trap Thursday spot.

Don’t like it. Not sure I can talk myself into Houston cause I hate holgerson. Houston has stayed inside or at this number vs 3 teams I think are fairly comparable where I have them ranked to smu. 7 point loss to wazzu on neutral, 7 point loss at Tulane, 15 point home loss to cincy. All different teams than smu but I think in general area far as power rankings go. Home thu night I have no interest laying. Prob just a pass for me.

[2daBank]

Dare I say Toledo protects their home field after getting their shit pushed in last week?

also, Memphis should beat the crap out of Tulsa even though I thought they were over valued.

I’m really partial to Tulsa, they been giving the good teams in conf all they want. I havnt dug into that one yet but I’m pretty sure it dog or pass for me.

Don’t even know who Toledo playing yet, I’m way behind this week! Lol: Putting in work since I woke up in middle of night!!!

[asiagambler]

Regarding the AAC game, Houston has 2 linebackers questionable, Terrance Edgeston and Zamir Kirven. May not seem like a big deal but Houston runs a 4-2-5 and I think they are both mike linebackers. Holgersen said Edgeston was rushed back last game and said he regrets it. Kirven got hurt before the game against uconn and not much info on him but either way, it sounds like they're not 100% and really hurting for depth. SMU is a running team! Seems like they're going to pound it down Houston throats. Don't think Houston can stop them

With Houston, they struggled last week against uconn but that was with Holgersen's son (lol) playing qb because Clayton Tune was hurt. Tune is expected back but I honestly don't know much about him. Surely, he's better than Holgersen that much is certain. I see Tune listed as a pro style QB but I also read he's got good mobility? I think that's the key here, Tune is coming off a hamstring injury and the way Holgersen was talking about him in practice, how he's moving well makes it seem like he can be a dual threat here. His passing numbers are terrible but is SMU's defense really any good? I know their metrics are decent but it's hard for me to believe given past years.

One last thing, there's supposed to be some weather but not until around halfway through the game and not sure if it's anything more than a few showers or straight on thunderstorm but I think there's a chance we see some scoring in this one. I lean towards over 65.5

[2daBank]

Biggest fukKing trap line on the board, fade Texas in that one.

Jerky the more I look at this one and have talked to some ppl opinion I respect on Texas schools I’m having doubts. I agree w your thoughts and I don’t want to back horns by any stretch but here my gripe/concern and I think it a fair one.

Line obviously says this game gonna be close right? If it close late there no way I wanna be holding a tcu ticket if Ehlimger has the ball with a minute or 2 to play: kid a gamer. Or conversely I don’t wanna trust tcu freshman to make those plays late I know Sam can. Know what im saying? Tcu needs to be up big on horns for me to feel comfy there and I just don’t like tcu enough to see them doing that.

Last year tcu was favs and lost this game. Tcu has owned the series before that, I’ve heard Patterson truly hates Texas but his teams have really started falling off last couple years in my eyes while Texas is coming back but obviously have serious problems on d this year!!!

I dunno. End of day I won’t be against you but tough for me to be against ehlinger when all he gotta do win in a game the line implies gonna be close. . The over makes sense to me. I look at the smu game tcu lost a shootout close and could see very similar result.

[2daBank]

How the hell smu scoring so much being so run heavy and only going for 4.2 per rush? They get off a whole bunch of runs a game tho and the yards add up! Still seems strange seeing a team run so much, rank 65th in country in yards per, yet hang 44 a game!!! Lol

[asiagambler]

How the hell smu scoring so much being so run heavy and only going for 4.2 per rush? They get off a whole bunch of runs a game tho and the yards add up! Still seems strange seeing a team run so much, rank 65th in country in yards per, yet hang 44 a game!!! Lol

They play super fast, actually first in plays per game, ahead of wake forest lol

[asiagambler]

Something I didn't realize, Houston plays really really slow. Probably because their defense is horrible

[2daBank]

They play super fast, actually first in plays per game, ahead of wake forest lol

Noticed that. Seems like a incredibly unusual mixture to hang soo many points with.

[BeatTheJerk]

Jerky the more I look at this one and have talked to some ppl opinion I respect on Texas schools I’m having doubts. I agree w your thoughts and I don’t want to back horns by any stretch but here my gripe/concern and I think it a fair one.

Line obviously says this game gonna be close right? If it close late there no way I wanna be holding a tcu ticket if Ehlimger has the ball with a minute or 2 to play: kid a gamer. Or conversely I don’t wanna trust tcu freshman to make those plays late I know Sam can. Know what im saying? Tcu needs to be up big on horns for me to feel comfy there and I just don’t like tcu enough to see them doing that.

Last year tcu was favs and lost this game. Tcu has owned the series before that, I’ve heard Patterson truly hates Texas but his teams have really started falling off last couple years in my eyes while Texas is coming back but obviously have serious problems on d this year!!!

I dunno. End of day I won’t be against you but tough for me to be against ehlinger when all he gotta do win in a game the line implies gonna be close. . The over makes sense to me. I look at the smu game tcu lost a shootout close and could see very similar result.

All valid points Banker & I respect/appreciate your take on this game. Yeah nothing is ever a guarantee, but this game feels like the Miami/Virginia game of two weeks ago. Miami was even a two point favorite in that one after Virginia playing Notre Dame tough & ultimately getting back doored in that one. That line seemed way off to everyone as well because Miami lost to VT as a 14 point favorite prior to the Virginia game. Fun fact Miami has lost straight up twice as a 14 point favorite this year unreal. GT beat them last week I swear if Miami plays Texas Tech in a bowl game this year I’m all in pal lol. The Tech teams have Miami’s number this year.

[BeatTheJerk]

I’m telling you more times than not these “take the bait” games fukKing lose from my POV.

[teecee]

Dare I say Toledo protects their home field after getting their shit pushed in last week?

also, Memphis should beat the crap out of Tulsa even though I thought they were over valued.

Toledo starting qb questionable again this week.

[teecee]

Houston can run the ball and control the clock a bit to keep that D off the field I give em a shot. SMU got fat on the likes of Texas St, S Fla, N Texas and Temple. All teams that don't produce on the ground.

[shocka1212]

Toledo starting qb questionable again this week.

good find. thank you. Think SMU rolls tonight. Houston has lost all control

[2daBank]

All valid points Banker & I respect/appreciate your take on this game. Yeah nothing is ever a guarantee, but this game feels like the Miami/Virginia game of two weeks ago. Miami was even a two point favorite in that one after Virginia playing Notre Dame tough & ultimately getting back doored in that one. That line seemed way off to everyone as well because Miami lost to VT as a 14 point favorite prior to the Virginia game. Fun fact Miami has lost straight up twice as a 14 point favorite this year unreal. GT beat them last week I swear if Miami plays Texas Tech in a bowl game this year I’m all in pal lol. The Tech teams have Miami’s number this year.

I hear ya, line def says tcu. I Remember uva/canes, I so wanted to play Uva but line screamed canes so I just left alone, lol.

(I may have a pattern here, even when line screams at me if I can’t figure it out capping it I usually pass, lol).,

Def think you on right side just have that concern bout ehlinger. Hopefully tcu up big and won’t matter!

[2daBank]

good find. thank you. Think SMU rolls tonight. Houston has lost all control

I hate holgerson only reason I can’t take the points. Hope you cash.

[BeatTheJerk]

I hear ya, line def says tcu. I Remember uva/canes, I so wanted to play Uva but line screamed canes so I just left alone, lol.

(I may have a pattern here, even when line screams at me if I can’t figure it out capping it I usually pass, lol).,

Def think you on right side just have that concern bout ehlinger. Hopefully tcu up big and won’t matter!

Thanks pal, it's an important game for me this weekend. BR getting low enough to have to consider work again lol.

Unless my parents give me the 15k I lent them earlier this year to pay off debt.

LARGE WAGER !!!

[BeatTheJerk]

Probably have to wait until Grandma dies before I see that money again .

[BeatTheJerk]

Kent St. -123 ML another big one for me as well.

[2daBank]

Louisville+3.5. Grabbing this now cause I see the hook disappearing at some places. I’m just not sure uva the better team here? this line implies
uva-10 ish at home?? Anyone agree with that? I don’t.

Both played Irish to a incredibly similar score. They both played FSU and while uva won at home and ville lost on road a case could be made ville played them at least as well. FSU had a shot to beat uva and blew it. Ville had a late lead and were inside 20 to put FSU away and threw a pick. Again I think a very similar effort from both vs like opponent.

Last week was the 1st time in I dunno how long Clemson has allowed a 100 yard rusher. I know uva has a very strong run d but is it better than tigers? Saterfield designs a very clever run game and I think they will have success against another strong rushing d., ville was a few dropped passes from being in that Clemson game.

Ville defense is a concern so this a little out of character for me as I typically lean to the stronger defense. That said uva offense is putrid, the teams that have lit ville up have pretty good offenses coming into that game. I like ville to have some offensive success and put pressure on a uva offense to score points which isn’t their strength.

[BeatTheJerk]

I like how Kent St. has played the last two weeks especially on offensive. They are undefeated at home & Miami of Ohio is win-less on the road so far, plus Kent St. has a slight edge in the turnover ratio.

[BeatTheJerk]

Excuse me for the kindergarten write-up, like I said before it's not my specialty. I sound like fukKing thomorino with that shit for nothing write-up.

[toddsclowns]

Waiting to see if Houston hits 14 at my book - this line seems completely out of whack, which usually says something, especially on a short week. This has gotta be Houston’s Super Bowl, undefeated in-state rival coming into their house - most times, you can throw stats out the window for these, but Houston’s D is real bad. Still think I’m going Houston - public is absolutely hammering SMU and line still sitting at 13.5

[stackz125]

Waiting to see if Houston hits 14 at my book - this line seems completely out of whack, which usually says something, especially on a short week. This has gotta be Houston’s Super Bowl, undefeated in-state rival coming into their house - most times, you can throw stats out the window for these, but Houston’s D is real bad. Still think I’m going Houston - public is absolutely hammering SMU and line still sitting at 13.5

Thats funny. I just hit SMU at 13.5. I was waiting for this line to drop. Fyi, there was a 14.5 2 days ago.

[teecee]

I took Houston at +13.5 on Monday bc I thought the line would go down. Oh well

[2daBank]

Excuse me for the kindergarten write-up, like I said before it's not my specialty. I sound like fukKing thomorino with that shit for nothing write-up.

Lmao. Not at all bro. I prefer hearing some reasons why you like somebody, doesn’t have to be long winded and disjointed like mine!! Lol.

[2daBank]

Probably have to wait until Grandma dies before I see that money again .

Lol. Gotta love situations like that! I love you gam gam but how you feeling lately?? Lmao

[2daBank]

Waiting to see if Houston hits 14 at my book - this line seems completely out of whack, which usually says something, especially on a short week. This has gotta be Houston’s Super Bowl, undefeated in-state rival coming into their house - most times, you can throw stats out the window for these, but Houston’s D is real bad. Still think I’m going Houston - public is absolutely hammering SMU and line still sitting at 13.5

I might have already mentioned this about 6x but I really don’t like holgerson at all, really only reason I can’t being myself to do it. When in doubt passing has worked well for me this season so gonna stick with it. Lol.

[BeatTheJerk]

Lol. Gotta love situations like that! I love you gam gam but how you feeling lately?? Lmao

Yeah Grams aren't you ready to move already & meet grandpa in heaven. I need that money from your daughter I gave her lmfao.

[toddsclowns]

Nice - makes sense, I rarely look at Thursday lines before Wed, try to minimize my OCD analysis paralysis.

[toddsclowns]

I might have already mentioned this about 6x but I really don’t like holgerson at all, really only reason I can’t being myself to do it. When in doubt passing has worked well for me this season so gonna stick with it. Lol.

Lol, most times passing is the most prudent choice

[2daBank]

Nice - makes sense, I rarely look at Thursday lines before Wed, try to minimize my OCD analysis paralysis.

Think I’ve fukked myself twice this year by waiting for thu or fri games and not covering cause missed few points on the line. So from now on if I don’t like those early only way I consider day of is if line moves more to my liking!! Lesson learned. Lol. I didn’t particularly care for either weeknight this week,, I could see myself on buffs but sick of that team fukkin me!!

[BigdaddyQH]

How can you trust Holgorsen? His team was held to 24 by UCONN, of all teams. They never came close to covering. Holgorsen also does not know the definition of defense. SMU has not scored less than 41 points since their season opener, in which they scored 37. They put up 48 at TCU. I think they have no problem scoring 45 tonight. The question is simple. Can Houston score enough to cover?

As far as Friday Night is concerned, you have a team (USC) that is down to one RB, lost several players on defense, and has been practicing in the beautiful Southern California weather all week. Temps in the high 80's to low 90's. They get to play in a city over a mile high, in 40 degree temps, against a team that has nothing to lose. And they are giving 13 1/2 points. Really? 3 1/2 is a lot closer to what the spread should be.

[2daBank]

How can you trust Holgorsen? His team was held to 24 by UCONN, of all teams. They never came close to covering. Holgorsen also does not know the definition of defense. SMU has not scored less than 41 points since their season opener, in which they scored 37. They put up 48 at TCU. I think they have no problem scoring 45 tonight. The question is simple. Can Houston score enough to cover?

Agree w not trusting holgerson, he a bum. I wouldn’t read much into last week tho. His kid was playing qb. Pretty sure he never intended on having to use him, just let him on team cause wife made him or grooming him to be another shifty coach as is the family tradition.