Slumping Red Sox welcome O's to Fenway
How quickly things can change. Less than two weeks ago when teams broke for the All-Star Game, Boston held a three-game lead in the AL East. Mired in a five-game skid the Red Sox now sit in second, 2½ games behind the streaking Yankees. Having the Orioles in town this weekend should help Big Papi & Co. with Baltimore winless in their last nine games at Fenway. Boston is -300 favorites to take two of three.
It’s nothing a new player or two won’t fix.
When the Boston Red Sox (55-39, plus-4.55 units) need something, they go to the store and get it. Adam LaRoche and Chris Duncan are now at their disposal as they try to put an end to a five-game losing streak. LaRoche was acquired at the Pittsburgh Pirates’ fire sale for two minor leaguers. Duncan came over from the St. Louis Cardinals for shortstop Julio Lugo in a swap of two players who had fallen out of favor with their respective clubs.
These two deals will have minimal impact on the series starting Friday night at Fenway Park between the Red Sox and the Baltimore Orioles (41-53, minus-8.49 units). Boston’s longer-term chances at winning a World Series – currently priced at 15-4 – are improved with the added depth of LaRoche (.770 OPS) at first base and Duncan (slumping at .687 OPS) in the outfield, two positions where injuries have been an issue. But for this week, Duncan has been shipped to AAA-Pawtucket to work on his swing, and LaRoche will be playing third banana at the corner spots to Kevin Youkilis (.979 OPS) and Mike Lowell (.800 OPS).
Boston’s more immediate concern is in the pitching department. Tim Wakefield is on the 15-day DL with a lower-back strain, leaving the Sox without one of the most profitable pitchers in the majors (13-4 team record, plus-9.22 units). And after a brilliant performance at the World Baseball Classic, Daisuke Matsuzaka (8.23 ERA) has missed extended time this year with a weak shoulder. He’s still rehabbing at the team’s spring training facility in Fort Myers.
The Orioles will try to peck away at the remains of the Boston rotation this week. Here are the projected starting assignments:
Game 1: Brad Bergesen vs. Brad Penny
Friday, 7:10 p.m. (ET)
Bergesen (3.51 ERA, 4.51 xFIP) is a rookie righthander from the Bay Area with an excellent sinker and very good control of his pitches. He’s adjusting well to the majors; after a few rough patches in May, Bergesen has thrown nine quality starts in his last 10 contests. Baltimore went 6-4 during those games to improve to 9-8 (plus-1.28 units) behind their current and future ace. Penny (5.02 ERA, 4.94 xFIP) has been reduced to a replacement-level pitcher (4.1 VORP) by arm injuries. Boston is 9-9 in his 18 starts and 2.10 units in the hole.
The betting odds at press time had the Red Sox pegged as –155 favorites with a total of 9.5 runs. Boston is 31-14 (plus-8.75 units) at home; Baltimore is 15-32 (minus-13.14 units) away from Camden Yards.
Game 2: Jeremy Guthrie vs. Jon Lester
Saturday, 7:10 p.m. (ET)
Lester (3.87 ERA, 3.34 xFIP) is the one bona fide threat the Orioles will face on the mound this series, and they have a .697 team OPS against southpaws compared to .779 against righthanders. Boston is 12-7 behind Lester for 2.02 units in earnings. The prognosis isn’t as good for Guthrie (5.12 ERA, 5.21 xFIP), who has the O’s at 8-11 and down 1.98 units. But if you believe in mechanical adjustments, Guthrie held the Chicago White Sox to two runs over eight innings last week after working with pitching coach Rick Kranitz on his delivery.
Game 3: David Hernandez vs. John Smoltz
Sunday, 1:35 p.m. (ET)
He has a comparable ERA to Bergesen, but Hernandez (3.55 ERA, 5.77 xFIP) only has six major-league starts under his belt and hasn’t demonstrated the same level of control. Baltimore is 3-3 when Hernandez starts; the under is 4-1-1, thanks to a very high 81.3 percent of runners left on base. Smoltz (6.31 ERA, 3.90 xFIP) has stranded a remarkably low 60.3 percent of runners in his five starts since making his Boston debut last month. The Sox dropped four of them, including their only loss to Baltimore in seven meetings this year.
How quickly things can change. Less than two weeks ago when teams broke for the All-Star Game, Boston held a three-game lead in the AL East. Mired in a five-game skid the Red Sox now sit in second, 2½ games behind the streaking Yankees. Having the Orioles in town this weekend should help Big Papi & Co. with Baltimore winless in their last nine games at Fenway. Boston is -300 favorites to take two of three.
It’s nothing a new player or two won’t fix.
When the Boston Red Sox (55-39, plus-4.55 units) need something, they go to the store and get it. Adam LaRoche and Chris Duncan are now at their disposal as they try to put an end to a five-game losing streak. LaRoche was acquired at the Pittsburgh Pirates’ fire sale for two minor leaguers. Duncan came over from the St. Louis Cardinals for shortstop Julio Lugo in a swap of two players who had fallen out of favor with their respective clubs.
These two deals will have minimal impact on the series starting Friday night at Fenway Park between the Red Sox and the Baltimore Orioles (41-53, minus-8.49 units). Boston’s longer-term chances at winning a World Series – currently priced at 15-4 – are improved with the added depth of LaRoche (.770 OPS) at first base and Duncan (slumping at .687 OPS) in the outfield, two positions where injuries have been an issue. But for this week, Duncan has been shipped to AAA-Pawtucket to work on his swing, and LaRoche will be playing third banana at the corner spots to Kevin Youkilis (.979 OPS) and Mike Lowell (.800 OPS).
Boston’s more immediate concern is in the pitching department. Tim Wakefield is on the 15-day DL with a lower-back strain, leaving the Sox without one of the most profitable pitchers in the majors (13-4 team record, plus-9.22 units). And after a brilliant performance at the World Baseball Classic, Daisuke Matsuzaka (8.23 ERA) has missed extended time this year with a weak shoulder. He’s still rehabbing at the team’s spring training facility in Fort Myers.
The Orioles will try to peck away at the remains of the Boston rotation this week. Here are the projected starting assignments:
Game 1: Brad Bergesen vs. Brad Penny
Friday, 7:10 p.m. (ET)
Bergesen (3.51 ERA, 4.51 xFIP) is a rookie righthander from the Bay Area with an excellent sinker and very good control of his pitches. He’s adjusting well to the majors; after a few rough patches in May, Bergesen has thrown nine quality starts in his last 10 contests. Baltimore went 6-4 during those games to improve to 9-8 (plus-1.28 units) behind their current and future ace. Penny (5.02 ERA, 4.94 xFIP) has been reduced to a replacement-level pitcher (4.1 VORP) by arm injuries. Boston is 9-9 in his 18 starts and 2.10 units in the hole.
The betting odds at press time had the Red Sox pegged as –155 favorites with a total of 9.5 runs. Boston is 31-14 (plus-8.75 units) at home; Baltimore is 15-32 (minus-13.14 units) away from Camden Yards.
Game 2: Jeremy Guthrie vs. Jon Lester
Saturday, 7:10 p.m. (ET)
Lester (3.87 ERA, 3.34 xFIP) is the one bona fide threat the Orioles will face on the mound this series, and they have a .697 team OPS against southpaws compared to .779 against righthanders. Boston is 12-7 behind Lester for 2.02 units in earnings. The prognosis isn’t as good for Guthrie (5.12 ERA, 5.21 xFIP), who has the O’s at 8-11 and down 1.98 units. But if you believe in mechanical adjustments, Guthrie held the Chicago White Sox to two runs over eight innings last week after working with pitching coach Rick Kranitz on his delivery.
Game 3: David Hernandez vs. John Smoltz
Sunday, 1:35 p.m. (ET)
He has a comparable ERA to Bergesen, but Hernandez (3.55 ERA, 5.77 xFIP) only has six major-league starts under his belt and hasn’t demonstrated the same level of control. Baltimore is 3-3 when Hernandez starts; the under is 4-1-1, thanks to a very high 81.3 percent of runners left on base. Smoltz (6.31 ERA, 3.90 xFIP) has stranded a remarkably low 60.3 percent of runners in his five starts since making his Boston debut last month. The Sox dropped four of them, including their only loss to Baltimore in seven meetings this year.