Saw This Stat Today on Betting 200+ Away Favs

Hman · 05-21-19, 08:26 PM

We talking just MLB Philly?

USCPHILLYGUY · 05-21-19, 08:30 PM

Originally posted by Hman

We talking just MLB Philly?

Sorry Hman. Yes in MLB.

Hey friends of ours just moved outside Clearwater. Absolutely love it.

Hman · 05-21-19, 08:34 PM

Thought so just making sure.

Impressive stat thanks for passing along.

Beautiful beaches in Clearwater area.

Hman · 05-21-19, 08:40 PM

Originally posted by USCPHILLYGUY

Hey friends of ours just moved outside Clearwater. Absolutely love it.

https://www3.forbes.com/lifestyle/the-ten-best-beaches-in-the-us-voted-for-by-you/11/

USCPHILLYGUY · 05-21-19, 08:54 PM

Thanks man

2daBank · 05-21-19, 09:21 PM

I almost never lay this kinda juice but needed some surefure type wins to parlay w blues since they were juiced to shit. Yankees were that team, was actually small plus money that way.

Chi_archie · 05-21-19, 09:29 PM

not as significant as it seems

did they give a breakdown of the avg juice? that matters

so we've seen a few -300 and aboves right?

-200 break even would be 66.67% or 62-31

-255 (tonight's yanks ML as an example) break even would be 71.83% or 67-26

its a small sample size and a small variation from expected outcomes

I would read into it that some strange big road fave trend is going to continue on

if anything i'd look for regression

jjgold · 05-21-19, 09:38 PM

Archie no one would work if trends were solid

Originally posted by Chi_archie

not as significant as it seems

did they give a breakdown of the avg juice? that matters

so we've seen a few -300 and aboves right?

-200 break even would be 66.67% or 62-31

-255 (tonight's yanks ML as an example) break even would be 71.83% or 67-26

its a small sample size and a small variation from expected outcomes

I would read into it that some strange big road fave trend is going to continue on

if anything i'd look for regression

2daBank · 05-21-19, 09:44 PM

Originally posted by Chi_archie

not as significant as it seems

did they give a breakdown of the avg juice? that matters

so we've seen a few -300 and aboves right?

-200 break even would be 66.67% or 62-31

-255 (tonight's yanks ML as an example) break even would be 71.83% or 67-26

its a small sample size and a small variation from expected outcomes

I would read into it that some strange big road fave trend is going to continue on

if anything i'd look for regression

I think it a mistake to think any trend like that means anything on the next game:

always should be capped on a game by game basis. Typically I don’t even bother looking at games above -200 but the double elimination contest has me capping the big lines as obviously makes sense to play those in a contest like that. So capped the yanks and stros games, I actually liked yanks better despite being 100 cents cheaper. Needed stuff to parlay w blues to offset the crazy price, so I did play a huge mlb fav today!! Prob 1st time in years!! Lol

bballs84 · 05-22-19, 04:44 PM

Again tonight..

Eoeo · 05-22-19, 04:56 PM

What's the stat for -200 home teams...

bballs84 · 05-22-19, 07:31 PM

Looking Good again

USCPHILLYGUY · 05-23-19, 09:38 AM

Agreed you have to hit at close to 70% clip to profit but a nice parlay option.

Today took yankees -216 & Bucks -301 for -105 parlay.

milwaukee mike · 05-23-19, 09:40 AM

Originally posted by USCPHILLYGUY

Agreed you have to hit at close to 70% clip to profit but a nice parlay option.

Today took yankees -216 & Bucks -301 for -105 parlay.

parlaying things that aren't correlated doesn't make any sense

just bet them both separately imho

value is usually gonna be on the big favorites because casual bettors often think it's dumb to bet -300

USCPHILLYGUY · 05-25-19, 09:33 AM

Let’s track this for shits & giggles.

Yankees went 3-0 at 200+ road favs vs. Balt.

Washington would be in play today vs. Miami

shadymcgrady · 05-25-19, 09:45 AM

Another great find philly

bballs84 · 05-25-19, 09:57 AM

Nats at Home.. Wouldn’t qualify correct?

juicername · 05-25-19, 10:14 AM

101-27 (2.60, 78.9%)
avg line: -230.5 / 204.7
on / against: +$4,205 / -$4,830
ROI: +14.3% / -37.7%

Since beginning of 2018 season.

USCPHILLYGUY · 05-25-19, 10:15 AM

Originally posted by bballs84

Nats at Home.. Wouldn’t qualify correct?

I apologize. Nats are at home

bballs84 · 05-25-19, 10:16 AM

Dodgers almost qualify depending on movement

Believe_EMT · 05-25-19, 10:22 AM

hard to argue with those numbers since 2009

1510-554 (2.08, 73.2%)

avg line: -241.8 / 210.3

on / against: +$18,724 / -$36,038

ROI: +3.8% / -17.5%

should be noted the db uses bet to win on faves as opposed to bet to risk whereas i would lay one Unit to win X, they would be laying X to win one Unit.

USCPHILLYGUY · 05-25-19, 10:44 AM

Great post men

milwaukee mike · 05-25-19, 03:37 PM

once people look at the numbers they realize that sharp money is usually betting big money line favorites

college hoops had a ridiculous run for years where pretty much every -2000 and above won

RudyRuetigger · 05-25-19, 03:43 PM

Originally posted by shadymcgrady

Another great find philly

this guy must want to go to the next bash

you can always tell who is sucking up for no reason

jjgold · 05-25-19, 03:48 PM

Lol

Sausage fest here

Goat Milk · 05-25-19, 03:54 PM

All the MLB guys on SBR are all over "home dogs." Pretty much every thread I see, pounding a home dog. That sounds weird to say. F it.

RudyRuetigger · 05-25-19, 03:59 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

All the MLB guys on SBR are all over "home dogs." Pretty much every thread I see, pounding a home dog. That sounds weird to say. F it.

id rather pound the home dog than the road pussies

and im not even gay

USCPHILLYGUY · 05-25-19, 04:57 PM

Had some sick numbers on Milwaukee pitcher today 1st 5 record (0-4-5 in his 9 starts) and Seattle’s Starting pitcher 10-1 record to the over but I took Rudy’s advice and couldn’t figure out if these were good numbers or bad

JIBBBY · 05-25-19, 05:08 PM

I like these stat trend finds!!!! Good work Philly.

They can make you money if you follow them closely and bet on them. Trends and streaks work in sports gambling.

thechaoz · 05-25-19, 05:12 PM

Great stats, thank you!

jjgold · 05-25-19, 05:14 PM

Do you realize winning trends both sides to a game ???

The rookies here amaze me

Originally posted by JIBBBY

I like these stat trend finds!!!! Good work Philly.

They can make you money if you follow them closely and bet on them. Trends and streaks work in sports gambling.

JIBBBY · 05-25-19, 05:18 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Do you realize winning trends both sides to a game ???

The rookies here amaze me

JJ stop picking on me..

..

No I didn't realize that, give us a winner or get back to your gardening work now..

jjgold · 05-25-19, 05:24 PM

There are over 20 winning trends both sides of Bucks game tonight

Jibby your in my video approx 15 guys will be featured

JIBBBY · 05-25-19, 05:29 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

There are over 20 winning trends both sides of Bucks game tonight

Jibby your in my video approx 15 guys will be featured

Give us a winner in this game JJ, I have no idea on who or what to bet even with the props.. I'm sitting this one out buddy..

I just got this going on.. I'm cool with it too!!! GO RAPS!!!!

4/24/19 4:19pm

$100.00

$210.00

Pending

5/30/19 12:00pm NBA Props Basketball 25103 Toronto Raptors win Eastern Conf +210* vs Field wins Eastern Conference