MLB 2nd Half: Pitchers to watch
Every year during the hideous event that is the all-star break, I take the time to fire some numbers into a spreadsheet and come up with lists of pitchers who I think are over/under achieving, with the intention of fading/backing them in the 2nd half of the season. These are usually guys who are on poor hitting teams, who are having stupidly good seasons or players with noticable splits in their 1st and 2nd half numbers (usually due to changing conditions etc).
5 Pitchers to FADE in the 2nd Half:
Dan Haren (Arizona Diamondbacks): 2.01 ERA, 0.808 WHIP
No doubt in my mind that this guy has been the best pitcher in baseball this year, but no way can he maintain these numbers until the end of the season. His 2nd half ERA over his career is over a run higher than the 1st half, and his current ERA+ of 226 would be up there with the best ever seasons. He's been hurt by no run support plenty this year, and as the Dbacks are going to be sellers this July it seems that will continue.
Zack Greinke (Kansas City Royals): 2.12 ERA, 1.076 WHIP
Greinke might have finally found his spot in KC, blighted by mental issues in the past he seems to thrive on the low pressure environment, but no way can this guy maintain a 2.12 ERA in the hitter friendly AL. He wont get any run support when his team sign greats like Yuniesky Betancourt and Ryan Freel to "improve" their offense, and his numbers are already slowly coming down after a ridiculous start. KC are a last placed team in the making and as good as Greinke has been, his numbers will suffer being on a poor team.
Wandy Rodriguez (Houston Astros): 2.96 ERA, 1.278 WHIP
Having a good year out of absolutely nowhere, his current ERA is 1.53 lower than his career mark of 4.49. Having turned 30 he is not at an age where I would expect to see that kind of improvement in his numbers and is massively over-achieving IMO. His 142 ERA+ on the year is excellent, but he is not as good a pitcher as it suggests he is given his career mark of 96, his SO/BB ratio is also too low to maintain his current numbers barring an absurd amount of good fortune. Playing in a tough offensive division wont help, with the Cards and Brewers hitting well, and the Cubs will hit better than they have done so far this season.
Jarrod Washburn (Seattle Mariners): 2.96 ERA, 1.086 WHIP
This dude is having a career year at the ripe old age of 34. Despite having excellent numbers he still has 6 losses to his name thansk to a poor offense behind him and playing in the same division as the hard hitting Angels and Rangers. His ERA+ is currently 54 points higher than it was for the 2008 season, and age 34 is not where I would expect a pitcher to maintain that improved performance. I expect big time regression from this guy and assuming he's not moved to a better offensive team, will continue to get no run support in Seattle. I reckon his ERA will finish around about 4 and his ERA+ to be somewhere in the 105-110 range at the seasons end.
Erik Bedard (Seattle Mariners): 2.63 ERA, 1.142 WHIP
Pretty much the same reasons as Washburn, stated above. Having a stellar year but will be blighted by poor run support. His current ERA is over a run better than his career mark and his 2nd half ERA is 0.68 runs higher than his career 1st half mark. ERA+ of 163 is far better than anything he has managed before (146 being his next best, contract year in Baltimore) and though I believe Bedard will still finish with above average numbers, he will still lose plenty of games with no offense behind him. One to fade for me unless he is traded to a contender who can actually hit.
3 Pitchers to BACK in the 2nd Half:
Cole Hamels (Philadelphia Phillies): 4.87 ERA, 1.378 WHIP
Guy is having an off year by his stellar standards, but has shown reasonable improvement lately. He is backed by a powerful offense and I expect him to shave more than a full run off his ERA down the stretch. His current ERA+ of 89 does not reflect how good a pitcher this guy is compared to his season average mark of 123. There isn't much difference between his season and career marks for BB/9 and K/9 and playing in the offensively light NL East will help.
Ricky Nolasco (Florida Marlins): 5.76 ERA, 1.390 WHIP
This guy is not an ace pitcher by any stretch but he had a stellar season in 2008 and having started off so poorly this time, has been decent in his past couple of starts. Playing for a surprising contender in the Marlins I expect him to step up and get the job done down the stretch. I Think his numbers will come down to around about league average by the seasons end and his career ERA+ of 96 reflects this. Should be able to find some good spots to back this guy in the 2nd half.
Manny Parra (Milwaukee Brewers): 6.78 ERA, 1.786 WHIP
Manny Parra is by far and away a better pitcher than what he has shown this season. Spent time in the minor leagues thanks to an ERA+ of 63 but was excellent in his last start before the break against the Cards. Milwaukee figure to continue being a good hitting team so he can afford to be below average and still pick up a nice amount of wins. I Think Parra steps up down the track and gets his numbers back to somewhere close to his career averages so far (4.98 ERA).
These are just my personal opinions and I will be finding my spots to back/fade these guys as the season goes on. Joe Public like to bet on teams when an "ace" is on the mound so i reckon some nice wins will be had with these, especially fading guys like Haren and Greinke, who are good but cannot (IMO) maintain their current numbers, and will be hurt by crap run support.
I'll re-visit this at the seasons end to see how right (or wrong, lol) I was.
5 Pitchers to FADE in the 2nd Half:
Dan Haren (Arizona Diamondbacks): 2.01 ERA, 0.808 WHIP
No doubt in my mind that this guy has been the best pitcher in baseball this year, but no way can he maintain these numbers until the end of the season. His 2nd half ERA over his career is over a run higher than the 1st half, and his current ERA+ of 226 would be up there with the best ever seasons. He's been hurt by no run support plenty this year, and as the Dbacks are going to be sellers this July it seems that will continue.
Zack Greinke (Kansas City Royals): 2.12 ERA, 1.076 WHIP
Greinke might have finally found his spot in KC, blighted by mental issues in the past he seems to thrive on the low pressure environment, but no way can this guy maintain a 2.12 ERA in the hitter friendly AL. He wont get any run support when his team sign greats like Yuniesky Betancourt and Ryan Freel to "improve" their offense, and his numbers are already slowly coming down after a ridiculous start. KC are a last placed team in the making and as good as Greinke has been, his numbers will suffer being on a poor team.
Wandy Rodriguez (Houston Astros): 2.96 ERA, 1.278 WHIP
Having a good year out of absolutely nowhere, his current ERA is 1.53 lower than his career mark of 4.49. Having turned 30 he is not at an age where I would expect to see that kind of improvement in his numbers and is massively over-achieving IMO. His 142 ERA+ on the year is excellent, but he is not as good a pitcher as it suggests he is given his career mark of 96, his SO/BB ratio is also too low to maintain his current numbers barring an absurd amount of good fortune. Playing in a tough offensive division wont help, with the Cards and Brewers hitting well, and the Cubs will hit better than they have done so far this season.
Jarrod Washburn (Seattle Mariners): 2.96 ERA, 1.086 WHIP
This dude is having a career year at the ripe old age of 34. Despite having excellent numbers he still has 6 losses to his name thansk to a poor offense behind him and playing in the same division as the hard hitting Angels and Rangers. His ERA+ is currently 54 points higher than it was for the 2008 season, and age 34 is not where I would expect a pitcher to maintain that improved performance. I expect big time regression from this guy and assuming he's not moved to a better offensive team, will continue to get no run support in Seattle. I reckon his ERA will finish around about 4 and his ERA+ to be somewhere in the 105-110 range at the seasons end.
Erik Bedard (Seattle Mariners): 2.63 ERA, 1.142 WHIP
Pretty much the same reasons as Washburn, stated above. Having a stellar year but will be blighted by poor run support. His current ERA is over a run better than his career mark and his 2nd half ERA is 0.68 runs higher than his career 1st half mark. ERA+ of 163 is far better than anything he has managed before (146 being his next best, contract year in Baltimore) and though I believe Bedard will still finish with above average numbers, he will still lose plenty of games with no offense behind him. One to fade for me unless he is traded to a contender who can actually hit.
3 Pitchers to BACK in the 2nd Half:
Cole Hamels (Philadelphia Phillies): 4.87 ERA, 1.378 WHIP
Guy is having an off year by his stellar standards, but has shown reasonable improvement lately. He is backed by a powerful offense and I expect him to shave more than a full run off his ERA down the stretch. His current ERA+ of 89 does not reflect how good a pitcher this guy is compared to his season average mark of 123. There isn't much difference between his season and career marks for BB/9 and K/9 and playing in the offensively light NL East will help.
Ricky Nolasco (Florida Marlins): 5.76 ERA, 1.390 WHIP
This guy is not an ace pitcher by any stretch but he had a stellar season in 2008 and having started off so poorly this time, has been decent in his past couple of starts. Playing for a surprising contender in the Marlins I expect him to step up and get the job done down the stretch. I Think his numbers will come down to around about league average by the seasons end and his career ERA+ of 96 reflects this. Should be able to find some good spots to back this guy in the 2nd half.
Manny Parra (Milwaukee Brewers): 6.78 ERA, 1.786 WHIP
Manny Parra is by far and away a better pitcher than what he has shown this season. Spent time in the minor leagues thanks to an ERA+ of 63 but was excellent in his last start before the break against the Cards. Milwaukee figure to continue being a good hitting team so he can afford to be below average and still pick up a nice amount of wins. I Think Parra steps up down the track and gets his numbers back to somewhere close to his career averages so far (4.98 ERA).
These are just my personal opinions and I will be finding my spots to back/fade these guys as the season goes on. Joe Public like to bet on teams when an "ace" is on the mound so i reckon some nice wins will be had with these, especially fading guys like Haren and Greinke, who are good but cannot (IMO) maintain their current numbers, and will be hurt by crap run support.
I'll re-visit this at the seasons end to see how right (or wrong, lol) I was.
