So you think winning long term is impossible?

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  • Alfa1234
    SBR MVP
    • 12-19-15
    • 2722

    #141
    Serbia VS Macedonia U21 X2 at 6.5
    Saracens VS Bristol 1 min 24.5 at 1.87
    Comment
    • Alfa1234
      SBR MVP
      • 12-19-15
      • 2722

      #142
      Azerbaijan VS Kosovo O8.5 corners at 2.1
      Comment
      • Alfa1234
        SBR MVP
        • 12-19-15
        • 2722

        #143
        Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa VS Duna Ruse 1x at 2.19
        Comment
        • Alfa1234
          SBR MVP
          • 12-19-15
          • 2722

          #144
          Barnsley Coventry U23 2 at 2.43
          Comment
          • Alfa1234
            SBR MVP
            • 12-19-15
            • 2722

            #145
            Balotesti Braila 1 at 1.75
            Comment
            • Alfa1234
              SBR MVP
              • 12-19-15
              • 2722

              #146
              Germany Turkey 2 at 2.25
              Comment
              • Alfa1234
                SBR MVP
                • 12-19-15
                • 2722

                #147
                Ajax Zwolle Women X2 at 6.5
                Italy Poland U10.5 Corners at 1.85
                Comment
                • downsouth
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 01-13-11
                  • 11580

                  #148
                  If you are consistently beating the closing line odds are you are probably a winning gambler. You may have a bad run, bad sample or whatever but if you are getting the best of it long term you will be successful. This is not news to anyone that has a chance in this industry.

                  The problem becomes finding outs to use, shrinking markets, and whatnot. If you are betting obscure props and beating the market you can't be making that much as limits in those are generally insanely low and any offshore or local I have used will cut them off real quick nowadays.
                  Comment
                  • Alfa1234
                    SBR MVP
                    • 12-19-15
                    • 2722

                    #149
                    Originally posted by downsouth
                    If you are consistently beating the closing line odds are you are probably a winning gambler. You may have a bad run, bad sample or whatever but if you are getting the best of it long term you will be successful. This is not news to anyone that has a chance in this industry.

                    The problem becomes finding outs to use, shrinking markets, and whatnot. If you are betting obscure props and beating the market you can't be making that much as limits in those are generally insanely low and any offshore or local I have used will cut them off real quick nowadays.
                    Limits are high enough to bet several hundred per game up to 1.5k sometimes. As I said before, offline and changing location all the time is key.
                    Comment
                    • Alfa1234
                      SBR MVP
                      • 12-19-15
                      • 2722

                      #150
                      Poland Faroe Islands U21 X2 at 8.6
                      Comment
                      • Alfa1234
                        SBR MVP
                        • 12-19-15
                        • 2722

                        #151
                        Update last 2 days (from before only PSG St Etienne is still open):

                        5/sep Latvia Andorra BNTS 1,4 0,4
                        Croatia Slovenia 1 min 19,5 1,8 -1
                        Al Nasr Emirates Club 1 min 1,5 2,31 -1
                        Connacht Zebre 1 min 12,5 1,87
                        Racing Metro VS Agen 1 min 24,5 1,87
                        Jorge Wilstermann Real Potosi O3,5 2,03 1,03
                        Al sharjah al ain 1x 1,36 -1
                        Ospreys Cheetas 1 min 19,5 1,87
                        South Korea Costa Rica 1 2,02 1,02
                        7/sep Hammarby Skovde 2 + 1,5 1,75 -1
                        Serbia Macedonia U21 X2 6,5 -1
                        Saracens Bristol 1 min 24,5 1,87
                        Azerbaijan Kosovo O8,5 corners 2,1 1,1
                        Gorna Oryahovitsa Duna Ruse 1x 2,19 1,19
                        Barnsley Coventry U23 2 2,43 -1
                        Balotesti Braila 1 1,75
                        Germany turkey 2 2,25 1,25
                        Ajax Zwolle Women x2 6,5 -1
                        Italy Poland U10,5 corners 1,85 -1
                        Poland Faroe X2 8,6 7,6
                        23,04
                        Comment
                        • danshan11
                          SBR MVP
                          • 07-08-17
                          • 4101

                          #152
                          what does that chart mean? can you show wins losses and clv, I could not find any of those teams in oddsportal to see the odds.
                          Comment
                          • Alfa1234
                            SBR MVP
                            • 12-19-15
                            • 2722

                            #153
                            Can't show CLV sorry, too much work to document it all but average is about 6%. First line is the odd taken, 2nd line is units won/lost.

                            Which games are you unable to find? They are all in oddsportal.

                            Edit: mistake in %
                            Last edited by Alfa1234; 09-08-18, 04:28 AM.
                            Comment
                            • Alfa1234
                              SBR MVP
                              • 12-19-15
                              • 2722

                              #154
                              Here are those that are still open now:




                              Comment
                              • Alfa1234
                                SBR MVP
                                • 12-19-15
                                • 2722

                                #155
                                8 sept:

                                Japan VS Costa Rica 2 at 6.21
                                Comment
                                • Alfa1234
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 12-19-15
                                  • 2722

                                  #156
                                  Montevideo Wanderers VS Fenix X2 at 2.01
                                  Comment
                                  • Alfa1234
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 12-19-15
                                    • 2722

                                    #157
                                    Werder Bremen VS Meppen X2 at 3.05
                                    Comment
                                    • Alfa1234
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 12-19-15
                                      • 2722

                                      #158
                                      Kapfenberger VS Wolfsberger X2 at 1.51
                                      Comment
                                      • Alfa1234
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 12-19-15
                                        • 2722

                                        #159
                                        Kristianstads VS Grebbestads U2.5 at 2.23
                                        Comment
                                        • Alfa1234
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 12-19-15
                                          • 2722

                                          #160
                                          Shenzhen VS Jiangxi X2 at 2.18
                                          Comment
                                          • 5mike5
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 09-21-11
                                            • 51983

                                            #161
                                            Originally posted by downsouth
                                            If you are consistently beating the closing line odds are you are probably a winning gambler. You may have a bad run, bad sample or whatever but if you are getting the best of it long term you will be successful. This is not news to anyone that has a chance in this industry.

                                            The problem becomes finding outs to use, shrinking markets, and whatnot. If you are betting obscure props and beating the market you can't be making that much as limits in those are generally insanely low and any offshore or local I have used will cut them off real quick nowadays.
                                            Great post
                                            Def a problem when u beat the Market almost all the time i. Beat it more than 75% (at least) of bets in nascar and by a lot. But unique market there. . Believe me they notice
                                            Last edited by 5mike5; 09-08-18, 05:43 AM.
                                            Comment
                                            • Alfa1234
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 12-19-15
                                              • 2722

                                              #162
                                              Montpellier VS Bordeaux Women X2 at 7.4
                                              Comment
                                              • Alfa1234
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 12-19-15
                                                • 2722

                                                #163
                                                Mauritania VS Burkina Faso X2 at 1.31
                                                Comment
                                                • Alfa1234
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 12-19-15
                                                  • 2722

                                                  #164
                                                  Airdrie VS Sutton 1X at 1.78
                                                  Utsikens VS Oskarsham 1x At 1.6
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Alfa1234
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 12-19-15
                                                    • 2722

                                                    #165
                                                    Dumbarton VS Montrose 1 at 2.15
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Alfa1234
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 12-19-15
                                                      • 2722

                                                      #166
                                                      Obolon VS Sumy O2.5 at 2.29
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Alfa1234
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 12-19-15
                                                        • 2722

                                                        #167
                                                        Breidablik VS Thor Women U2.5 at 2.81
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Alfa1234
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 12-19-15
                                                          • 2722

                                                          #168
                                                          Slaven Belupo VS Inter Zapresic 1 at 1.72
                                                          Comment
                                                          • danwinkler
                                                            SBR Sharp
                                                            • 05-22-18
                                                            • 461

                                                            #169
                                                            Playing selective extremely small market is the best way to win your bets but even if you win long term it may not be enough to make significant income unless you live in a third world country because the limits are very small. Even if that is the case, books like bet365 that offers these markets will shut down your account once they realize that you have an edge on them on on a regular basis.

                                                            Its great if you can a find a book that will let you keep playing small markets regardless of how much you win.

                                                            In my opinion, if you want to make a living with sports betting, you must be able able to beat the major markets in the long run. If you can do that most offshore books will still kick you out or limit you and you will be left with the likes of pinnacle, bookmaker etc. But they are more than enough to keep earning as long as you keep winning in the long run.

                                                            Few years back I used to follow a service called "bettingresource" that has a perfect model to grind out and win long term with the major markets but I had to stop because of the time of their emails; its hard for me to follow them consistently due to work travel in different time zones.
                                                            Last edited by danwinkler; 09-08-18, 09:23 AM.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Alfa1234
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 12-19-15
                                                              • 2722

                                                              #170
                                                              What do you consider "small limits"?
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Sam Odom
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 10-30-05
                                                                • 58063

                                                                #171
                                                                Originally posted by Alfa1234

                                                                What do you consider "small limits"?


                                                                be able to martingale 8x
                                                                Comment
                                                                • danwinkler
                                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                                  • 05-22-18
                                                                  • 461

                                                                  #172
                                                                  Originally posted by Alfa1234
                                                                  What do you consider "small limits"?
                                                                  Markets with very low volume and in turn small limits. IN these markets line will move as you bet the limit and before you can bet the full amount and some parts of your bets would already lose value because of the movement or you have to stop betting once it moves. Often in these markets line wont move based on volume, it will moved based on action from a good profiled bettors. If they have you as consistent winner in certain small markets, they will flag you and you would get smaller than usual limits and they will move your line based on your bets. Most books will outright kick you out or give very small limits that wont be worth betting if you beat their small markets consistently.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Alfa1234
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 12-19-15
                                                                    • 2722

                                                                    #173
                                                                    Well yes, but put a number on it. As I said, limits for these are several hundred up to 1.5k. I don't consider those very small and definitely good enough to make money. Use of different shops is key though.

                                                                    Re that martingale:

                                                                    x8 would not have done it.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Alfa1234
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 12-19-15
                                                                      • 2722

                                                                      #174
                                                                      Bijelo Brdo VS Osijek 2 at 2.76
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • icon
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 01-09-18
                                                                        • 3427

                                                                        #175
                                                                        Did you win?
                                                                        Comment
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