So you think winning long term is impossible?

[Alfa1234]

2 More:

Akropolis Vs Karlstadt 1 at 1.85
Brno VS Ostrava U21 1 at 2.3

[Alfa1234]

1 More:

Kuala Lumpur VS Felcra FC x2 at 2.02

[Alfa1234]

Alaska Aces VS Ginebra San Migual O200.5 at 2.4

[Alfa1234]

Plzen Spartak Prague U21 1 at 2.91

[Alfa1234]

Lokomotiv Oslo VS Hodd x2 at 2.34

[Alfa1234]

Middlesbrough Aston Villa U23 1 at 2.6

[Alfa1234]

Vardeneset VS Lysekloster 1x at 2.8

[Alfa1234]

Torpedo Novgorod VS St Petersburg 2 at 1.75

[Alfa1234]

2 More:

Djokovic Vs Sousa 1st set 2 at 9.9
Lokomotiv Oslo VS Hodd 2 at 4.11 (same game as before)

[Alfa1234]

Holstebro VS Skanderborg 2+3.5 at 2.05

[milwaukee mike]

You misunderstand what I mean by "local". I don't mean some unregulated guy taking bets. I'm talking local betting shops, with machines and staff. If you manage it well, spread your bets and change shops all the time you can stay under the radar.

that might someday be the case here, but for now the only real options are online, outside of vegas… maybe some of these other states will have better lines/competition than crap like will hill at some point

[Alfa1234]

that might someday be the case here, but for now the only real options are online, outside of vegas… maybe some of these other states will have better lines/competition than crap like will hill at some point

I believe it'll come very soon...it will create tremendous options for US players.

[Alfa1234]

Barcelona VS Huesca U9.5 corners at 2.34

[Alfa1234]

Ryazan VS Khimki X2 at 6.8

[Alfa1234]

PSG Vs St Etienne X2 at 7.3 (very early line)

[Alfa1234]

PSG Vs St Etienne BTS at 2.46

[Alfa1234]

Stabaek II Vs Nybergsund x2 at 2.51

[danshan11]

Why are you even commenting if you cannot see any further past the end of your nose than to bet only Sides/Totals in major US sports... whilst also claiming those markets are super efficient and can't be beat?
Blows my mind how many around here parrot the same stuff they see others say and laugh at people who think for themselves
Pretty sure Alfa is an ongoing winner btw. He has the sort of problems with books trying to shut him down without proper reasons that suggests he is too sharp from them.

first off who are you talking about optional, just cause you are one of the head clueless people, go fly a kite, rude punk for no reason, cant see past my nose, do you know who I am, do you know my experience, do you know my record, huh big mouth?

I win and continue to win every single season against sharp strong markets and the only thing I question and ask about is if that is true skill or variance. My only cant see past my nose question is, is it skill or luck? I am one of the very few who are smart enough to want to know the answer to that question.

Rude for no reason, I actually liked you until you took this I want to be one of crybabies let me throw in my rude 2 cents sense shit, go fly a kite you clueless sports fan.

[danshan11]

and KVB hiding like a little sister behind her big brother optional, why dont you show your contrarian fund policy and post some real lines instead of some joker index of the Yankees -690 is what the KVB Dipshit fund shows,

show some skill post some lines, if you are modeling lets see them lines or shut up and be a fan like your big brother Optional

[danshan11]

Alaska Aces VS Ginebra San Migual O200.5 at 2.4

what was your margin on this game? cause the line moved your way just curious what the margin was I dont know the margins on filipino basketball and it seems to really vary

it looks like from oddsportal the margin on this league is roughly 5% at pinnacle, are you beating that huge margin and if so HELL YEAH ROCK ON!!!!!!

[KVB]

You misunderstand what I mean by "local". I don't mean some unregulated guy taking bets. I'm talking local betting shops, with machines and staff. If you manage it well, spread your bets and change shops all the time you can stay under the radar.

@milwaukeemike ^^^ what he's doing could be next easy opportunity as US legalizes but before industry matures.

Agreed about managing the bets and spreading around. We've been doing that offshore for years.

It's not only good to have outs, but your outs should have outs as well, but don't tell the books that.

I also agree Opti, a little gold mine in that business once legislation starts moving.

[KVB]

and KVB hiding like a little sister behind her big brother optional, why dont you show your contrarian fund policy and post some real lines instead of some joker index of the Yankees -690 is what the KVB Dipshit fund shows,

show some skill post some lines, if you are modeling lets see them lines or shut up and be a fan like your big brother Optional

Whaaat? Whaaaat does any of this post even mean?

This dude stuck on me now too?

We know dan, beating the closer over the long haul is a good indication of being a winner.

We know. You read like two gambling books and are spouting the same things over and over.

Don't be the guy that comes into the Forum telling sports gamblers how they will lose long term and act like it's some kind of amazing discovery.

Because you win...

I win and continue to win every single season against sharp strong markets and the only thing I question and ask about is if that is true skill or variance...

Nice claim, you don't even track any significant number of plays and say things like this.

You have outright refused all help on any suggestions about even coming close to trying to answer the "only thing" you question. Even if you can narrow it down to 1 in 1000, you could still be that lucky, unskilled one.

You already have all the answers. You have made that clear. You only trust the closing line and everyone is a loser.

Except you.

Two books, maybe.

Do you even lift? Bro?

I know you want to internet fight, claim you know nothing, not want to learn, then claim you know everything, but I don't internet battle with trolls.

It's just not me. You're always fighting, so leave me out of whatever problems you have with opti or anyone else.

[Optional]

first off who are you talking about optional, just cause you are one of the head clueless people, go fly a kite, rude punk for no reason, cant see past my nose, do you know who I am, do you know my experience, do you know my record, huh big mouth?

I win and continue to win every single season against sharp strong markets and the only thing I question and ask about is if that is true skill or variance. My only cant see past my nose question is, is it skill or luck? I am one of the very few who are smart enough to want to know the answer to that question.

Rude for no reason, I actually liked you until you took this I want to be one of crybabies let me throw in my rude 2 cents sense shit, go fly a kite you clueless sports fan.

Dayum, you go off like a fire cracker if questioned!!

Especially for a person who had just made a bunch of posts questioning and mocking someone else

[cincinnatikid513]

PSG Vs St Etienne X2 at 7.3 (very early line)

i see on bet365 st etienne is +1400

nevermind i get it now u got the draw or st etienne which is currently +500 so u got a good price +730

[Alfa1234]

Danshan chill man...

Re that margin on Alaska Aces total, not sure which margin you mean exactly. The bookie I used has a 6.5% margin. The closing line was 197.5. Pinnacle closed +200.5 at 2.28 so my real closing margin was roughly 0 on that game.

Update for the weekend (too lazy to retype and my excel won't properly copy paste so here's a screenshot): First number is the odd taken, 2nd line is the unit won/lost.

https://gyazo.com/8390852a0117cb5513f5006a3519f295

https://gyazo.com/448d78ddef31444bce8c8c70ee04865e

Total +17.89 units for the weekend with 5 games still open.

Total invested 41 units (finished games). ROI 43.63%. A lot higher than normal so this was a great weekend.

My real ROI was lower because I don't bet 1 unit per game but use a to win amount.

[Optional]

^^Click the first icon on the right above post editor box "A/A" to switch to WYSIWYG mode and your spreadsheet will paste properly.

[Optional]

i see on bet365 st etienne is +1400

nevermind i get it now u got the draw or st etienne which is currently +500 so u got a good price +730

decimal odds 7.3 = $7.30 return for a $1.00 bet. Or +630 in American odds.

[Alfa1234]

^^Click the first icon on the right above post editor box "A/A" to switch to WYSIWYG mode and your spreadsheet will paste properly.

Thank you!

Update (all plays posted in the thread so far). First colums is odd taken, 2nd column is unit profit/loss for that game. Total below.

31/aug	Kazma al tadamon		3,85	-1
	neman grodna		3,05	2,05
	mlada karvina		1,95	0,95
	getafe valladolid		2,19	-1
	south melbourne port melbourne		2,02	1,02
	newcastle saracens		1,87	0,87
	pyunik lori vanadzor		2,92	-1
	universidad catolica el nacional		1,78	0,78
	montpeller la roche		1,87	-1
	worcester wasps		3,2	-1
	worcester wasps		1,87	0,87
1/sep	nadal basilashvili		8,5	-1
	Parma juve		4,15	3,15
	shakhtar mariupol		3,01	-1
	Crystal palace southampton		3,85	2,85
	Krupa Mostar		2	1
	stuttgart bayern		2,1	1,1
	Nitra Zlate moravce		1,6	0,6
	eskisehirspor karabukspor		2,21	-1
	Wurzburger Wehen Wiesbaden		2,15	1,15
	Forward Linkoping		2,4	1,4
	Karlslund Syrianska		2,2	1,2
	Stade Tunisien Stade Gabesien		1,83	-1
	setubal belenenses u19		2,02	-1
	Castres Lyon		1,87	-1
	Skopje Shkendia		1,34	0,34
2/sep	Guangzhou Shanghai		2,17	1,17
	Dynamo Karpaty		5,75	4,75
	Lazio Frosinone		2
	Akropolis Karlstadt		1,85	-1
	Brno Ostrava		2,3	-1
	Kuala lumpur Felcra		2,02	1,02
	Alaska Aces Barangay Ginebra		2,4	1,4
	Plzen Spartak Prague		2,91	1,91
	Lokomotiv oslo Hodd		2,34	-1
	Middlesbrough aston villa U23		2,6	-1
	vardeneset lysekloster		2,8	-1
	torpedo Novgorod St petersburg		1,75
	Lokomotiv oslo Hodd		4,11	-1
	Djokovic Sousa		9,9
	holstebro skanderborg		2,05	-1
	Barcelona Huesca		2,34	-1
	PSg St Etienne		7,3
	PSg St Etienne		2,46
	Stabaek Nybergsund		2,51	1,51
	Ryazan Khimki		6,8	5,8
				17,89

[Alfa1234]

Lazio Frosinone U3.5 bookings also won so that's +18.89 units now.

[Honeybadger44]

Alfa is legit. Might seem an unconventional method, but if you know what you're doing, it's highly profitable.

[KVB]

Nice work here.

[sqvirrel]

doesn't matter if the lines were available, I could make 50 bets and then post the 30 where the line moved in my favor

and it also doesn't matter that some nitwits believe the line you get is unimportant, you'll never be able to win an argument or prove a nitwit wrong so don't even bother

what happens if you max bet a prop at -200 and it moves to -400? you sure beat the closing line but the value you got has nothing to do with the closing line. fair value might have been -150 and might have been -500, they only moved it because someone was pounding it

A few years ago I bet fairly large Nashville to with Stanley at 40:1 on Bodog. The line immediately moved to 20:1

I beat the closing line because I moved the closing line

edit: now that I'm thinking about it it was more like 400:1. I remember it as an extreme longshot with an extreme payout

[Alfa1234]

A few years ago I bet fairly large Nashville to with Stanley at 40:1 on Bodog. The line immediately moved to 20:1

I beat the closing line because I moved the closing line

edit: now that I'm thinking about it it was more like 400:1. I remember it as an extreme longshot with an extreme payout

You beat the line at 1 bookie. I highly doubt all bookies moved the line because of your bet...and we're talking averages, not 1 single bet.

There is something to it though, when I bet a very small market at Pinnacle before closing, the line moves as well. Often quite significantly...which is why not all closing lines in small markets represent the true odds. On average though, they will.

[milwaukee mike]

You beat the line at 1 bookie. I highly doubt all bookies moved the line because of your bet...and we're talking averages, not 1 single bet.

There is something to it though, when I bet a very small market at Pinnacle before closing, the line moves as well. Often quite significantly...which is why not all closing lines in small markets represent the true odds. On average though, they will.

how many places do you think there are for people in the USA to bet on rugby? if you move the line at one site, that is your only choice

so it's great that you can be up that many units, but realistically nobody with a clue in the USA could really do anything with that stuff

[Alfa1234]

how many places do you think there are for people in the USA to bet on rugby? if you move the line at one site, that is your only choice

so it's great that you can be up that many units, but realistically nobody with a clue in the USA could really do anything with that stuff

True, but this site isn't only Americans...any European book has these matches and lines. I believe it's only a matter of time before US citizens get them as well. William Hill has all these games in Europe, no idea about their US book.